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Possible lack of final agreement overspeaks Baku summit negotiations

Baku can go down in history as another failed climate summit, adding to the list of COPs that ended in failure; with a bad agreement, as in Copenhagen (2009) or without agreement, as in the summit in The Hague (2000).

This is raised in the conversations that negotiators, observers and journalists have this Saturday in the corridors of COP29, after the 24 hours of extension of a summit that was supposed to end on Friday afternoon and in full “chaos” after dozens of countries left the room where the draft of the potential agreement was being negotiated.

The analysts and observers consulted, as well as the negotiating teams, agree to underline the “especially chaotic” end of this summit, from which a not too encouraging outcome is expected: either a “bad agreement” – that does not meet the needs of the Global South to face the climate challenge – or, directly, without agreement.

Pessimism invaded the spaces of the summit that hosts these days the capital of Azerbaijan, and in which about 200 states have been negotiating for two weeks how to finance climate action, especially in those low-income countries and vulnerable to the impacts of global warming.

Everyone mentions the ghost of the failed summits in The Hague and Copenhagen, cases that they would like to avoid, because they fear that going through another failure like this would further undermine the already weaken confidence in multilateralism.

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Some developing countries leave the trading room

In addition, small island states and some Africans left the negotiation room where they met the presidency’s latest proposal for the agreement on climate financing that finalizes COP29, where they said they did not feel heard.

Political representatives of the negotiating group that brings together the least developed countries, as well as that of the small island states claimed to have come to the climate summit in Baku to close “a fair agreement” on climate financing, but they have felt “hurt” by not being consulted.

“There is an agreement to be closed and we are not being consulted. We are here to negotiate, but we are leaving because at the moment we do not feel that we are being heard,” said the head of the negotiating group of the island countries, Cedric Schuste, in statements to the media.

“We do everything we can to build bridges with literally everyone. It is not easy, neither in financing nor in mitigation,” stressed the European Commissioner for Climate Action, Wopke Hoekstra, to emphasize that “it is fair to ask that we be constructive.”

Some Latin American and Caribbean states, which are trying to build bridges between the least developed and rich countries, expressed their refusal to admit that this Baku summit is closed without an agreement.

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“We cannot leave Baku or Copenhagen,” said Panama’s special climate envoy, Juan Carlos Monterrey, in reference to the climate summit held in the Danish capital in 2009, a meeting that the international climate community considered a failure, by not reaching any agreement.

“We are already at a point of not only building bridges, but walking on those bridges,” Monterrey said, after detailing that the countries had left the consultation mainly because of their discrepancies regarding the total amount that rich countries suggest mobilizing to pay for the climate transition and adaptation to the inevitable impacts of global warming.

“The great struggle is the figure,” said Monterrey, since developing countries at this point support that the goal is 300 billion dollars per year by 2035, and developing and emerging economies ask for 500 billion dollars annually and by 2030.

Lack of transparency in the process

Panama’s main negotiator, Ana Aguilar, also criticized the lack of transparency in the process, something she blamed on the Azerbaijani presidency of the summit, which according to her has had more meetings with some parties than with others, and has been three days without favoring negotiations more than bilaterally.

“We have a problem,” said Colombian Minister Susana Muhamad, who claimed that there is still a long distance between the amount that rich countries propose to mobilize and that requested by those that developing countries.

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The proposal of the presidency of the COP29, as reflected in a negotiating text made public on Friday, was that the awealing countries pay 250 billion dollars a year by 2035 to the states of the Global South, to help them pay for action against climate change, a phenomenon to which they hardly contribute but of which they are the main victims.

Now there is talk of 300 billion dollars, while the largest group of developing countries demands at least 500 billion.

The dispute is especially in the quantum, Muhamad said, but also “in some of the requirements that I think we can achieve through negotiation,” he said.

“The problem is that it has been published very late, it was published yesterday. The deadline is very short, so we have some countries, those that have less financial capacity, that do not feel satisfied,” explained Muhamad, who added that “we need them to be able to move and deliberate.”

The Colombian minister said that she will encourage rich countries “to take a step forward” and, she added, “it is very important that they do so so that we can move forward and carry out this negotiation.”

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International

Claudia Sheinbaum: Operation Against ‘El Mencho’ Was Based on Pending Arrest Warrants

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum on Wednesday rejected claims that the military operation that resulted in the death of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), was carried out under pressure from the United States government.

Sheinbaum explained that the deployment of federal forces was aimed at executing outstanding arrest warrants against Oseguera Cervantes, who was considered one of the most wanted criminals in both Mexico and the United States.

“That was not the objective (to ease pressure from the United States). It is very important, and I want to repeat it. This individual had an arrest warrant, or several,” Sheinbaum said, referring to the operation conducted on February 22.

According to the president, the initial goal was to capture Oseguera Cervantes, but military forces responded after coming under attack during the intervention.

“The operation was to detain him. The problem is that they were attacked — the Secretariat of National Defense — and they responded at that moment,” she said.

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The president insisted that the action was not carried out in response to external demands, although she acknowledged intelligence cooperation with the United States.

“It was not done in any way because of pressure from the United States, not at all. Of course, there was intelligence information from the United States that was used specifically,” she concluded.

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International

Spain Denies Any Agreement to Cooperate with U.S. Military in Iran Operations

Spain’s Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares on Wednesday firmly denied that Madrid has agreed to cooperate with the U.S. military in operations against Iran, contradicting statements made minutes earlier by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

“I categorically deny it,” Albares said in a radio interview cited by EFE. “The position of the Spanish government regarding the war in the Middle East, the bombings in Iran, and the use of our bases has not changed by a single comma.”

Earlier in the day, Leavitt told reporters that Spain had “agreed to cooperate with the United States military in recent hours,” following President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a trade embargo on Madrid. Trump had warned of economic measures after Spain reportedly refused to allow the Pentagon to use facilities at Spanish bases for operations related to Iran.

“I have no idea what that could be referring to or where it could be coming from,” Albares said, insisting that Spain’s position “has not changed at all” and therefore “remains absolutely unchanged.” He added that he had “no desire” and “almost no time” to speculate about the White House spokesperson’s remarks.

Albares reiterated Spain’s “No to war” stance, which he said had been clearly and forcefully expressed by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in an institutional address. According to the foreign minister, that position has been supported by “many European colleagues.”

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White House Says Spain Agrees to Cooperate with U.S. Military After Trump Threatens Trade Embargo

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday that Spain has agreed “in recent hours” to cooperate with the U.S. military, following President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a trade embargo on Madrid.

Trump had warned of potential commercial measures after Spain reportedly refused to allow the Pentagon to use facilities at Spanish military bases for operations related to Iran.

“With respect to Spain, I think you heard the president’s message yesterday loud and clear, and I understand that in recent hours they have agreed to cooperate with the United States military,” Leavitt said during a press briefing.

She added that the U.S. military is currently coordinating with its counterparts in Spain. However, the president expects broader support.

“The president expects that all of Europe, all of our European allies, of course, will cooperate in this important mission — not only for the United States, but also for Europe,” Leavitt said.

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Her remarks came in response to questions about Spain’s position and its role as a U.S. ally amid rising tensions surrounding operations involving Iran.

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