International
Trump gains ground over Harris and the elections are emerging as the closest of the century
The Republican candidate for the White House, former President Donald Trump, has gained ground in the polls of his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, and the selections of November 5 are emerging as the closest of the last century in the United States.
Harris’ candidacy, who replaced President Joe Biden after he threw in the towel in July, initially aroused great enthusiasm that was transferred to the polls, but Trump has managed to pulverize that advantage when there are 16 days left until the elections.
According to the latest forecast of the FiveThiryEight portal based on the average of polls published nationally and in key states, Trump achieves a slight advantage over Harris and has a 52% chance of winning the November 5 elections.
Despite the fact that the Democrat leads the intention to vote at the national level, the Republican is more favored by the Electoral College, the system by which the states grant a certain number of electoral votes to the winning candidate.
Two weeks ago, the forecast of the same portal gave Harris a 58% chance to defeat Trump.
The difference between Harris and Trump
Although the Republican has gained ground in recent weeks, the situation is so tight that the chances of victory of each of the two candidates are practically equivalent to throwing a coin into the air.
The difference between Harris and Trump is less than two percentage points in the seven decisive states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) so that a small statistical error could alter the result.
In addition, at the national level, the vice president only takes two points ahead of the former president, a narrower difference than the margin between Biden and Trump on any of the days of the 2020 campaign.
After those elections, the Republican refused to accept his defeat and promoted the vote count in some key states and several litigations that were dismissed in court.
In 2000, the election result was up in the air until the Supreme Court gave the victory to Republican George W. Busch on the Democrat Al Gore in Florida, which was then a hinge state.
But according to the FiveThirtyEight portal, to find elections as close as what the polls draw, we have to go back to 1876, when the Republican Rutherford Hayes beat the Democrat Samuel Tilden by a single electoral vote: 185 against 184.
Every vote counts
In such a tight scenario, every vote counts and the two candidates are doubling their presence in the seven decisive states, where in some cases the early vote has already begun with a high turnout.
The rhetoric and the crossfire between the two has also intensified with attacks and insults.
Trump suggested this week that he would be willing to deploy the military against the “internal enemies” of the United States, in an apparent reference to his political rivals, while Harris described his rival as “fascist” and “deranted.”
The vice president has decided to raise the tone against Trump in an attempt to revitalize her campaign, to which former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton have also joined, and former first lady Michelle Obama to give her a new impetus.
The Republican is this Sunday in Pennsylvania, where he is expected to visit a McDonald’s and accuse Harris of having invented that he worked for that fast food chain as a young man.
For her part, the Democratic candidate, who turns 60 today, is in Georgia before traveling to Pennsylvania, where tomorrow she will campaign with Liz Cheney, a former Republican congressman facing Trump.
International
U.S. doubles bounty on Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro to $50 million
In February, the United States designated eight Latin American criminal organizations as “global terrorist” groups, including Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua, and the MS-13 gang. In July, it added the Cartel of the Suns to the list — a group Washington claims is led by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Last Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration doubled the reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest, raising it from $25 million to $50 million, U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi announced on social media platform X.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio explained that labeling the Cartel of the Suns as a terrorist organization allows for a strategic shift in dealing with the Venezuelan regime, as it is now also considered a direct threat to U.S. national security, according to El Espectador.
In an interview with The World Over on EWTN, Rubio said the designation enables the U.S. to “use intelligence agencies, the Department of Defense, or any other element of American power to go after them.” He stressed this is no longer just a law enforcement matter, but a national security operation.
When asked at the White House whether he believes it is worth sending the military to combat Latin American drug cartels, Trump responded:
“Latin America has many cartels, a lot of drug trafficking, so, you know, we want to protect our country. We have to protect it.”
International
Three injured in early-morning New York City shooting
A shooting in New York City early Saturday morning left three people injured, a police spokesperson told AFP.
The incident occurred at around 1:20 a.m. local time (05:20 GMT) following a dispute. An 18-year-old woman sustained a scratch to the neck, while a 19-year-old man and a 65-year-old man were injured in the lower limbs.
The victims were taken to Bellevue Hospital, where they were reported to be in stable condition.
The alleged shooter was taken into custody at the scene, and a firearm was recovered. As of now, the suspect has not been formally charged.
Videos circulating on social media show scenes of panic among the crowd, though AFP has not been able to verify their authenticity. The incident comes just weeks after another shooting in a Manhattan skyscraper that left four people injured before the gunman took his own life.
International
Colombian President Gustavo Petro announces talks with clan del Golfo outside country
Colombian President Gustavo Petro stated on Friday that his government has begun talks outside the country with the Clan del Golfo, Colombia’s main criminal group also known as the Gaitanist Army.
“We have started conversations outside Colombia with the self-called Gaitanist Army,” the president said during the handover of 6,500 hectares of land to farmers in the Caribbean department of Córdoba.
The president noted that his administration “has seized more cocaine than any other government” because it seeks to “cut off the finances (of criminal groups) that fuel violence in many regions of Colombia.”
“A bill has been introduced that I hope the Congress studies thoroughly, because it essentially elevates restorative justice even for serious crimes,” Petro said.
The initiative he referred to was presented by his Minister of Justice, Eduardo Montealegre, aimed at “the consolidation of total peace.”
According to the Ministry of Justice, the bill seeks to provide the government with clear regulations to achieve the disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration of illegal armed groups.
For groups such as the Clan del Golfo, a judicial submission process will be applied, which could bring possible legal benefits if they genuinely cooperate, surrender weapons, and dismantle their groups.
U.S. doubles bounty on Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro to $50 million
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