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Argentina’s lithium pipeline promises “white gold” boom as Chile tightens control

Argentina's lithium pipeline promises "white gold" boom as Chile tightens control
Photo: Reuters

April 24 |

In Argentina’s mountainous north, a robust portfolio of lithium projects about to come online looks set to unlock a production wave that could triple its output of the key metal for electric vehicle batteries in the next two years.

The world’s fourth-largest producer of the silvery-white metal sits within the so-called “lithium triangle” and has been attracting investment from Canadian mining companies to ones from China with a regional and market-driven model, even as a wave of resource nationalism has swept through the region.

Neighboring Chile, the region’s top lithium producer, last week unveiled plans for a state-led public-private model, spooking investors. Bolivia has long maintained tight control over its huge but largely untapped resources, while Mexico nationalized its lithium deposits last year.

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In Argentina, although state energy company YPF YPFD.BA began exploring for lithium last year, the sector has been driven largely by private enterprise and periodic approvals of new projects as the government has sought to attract more export dollars through mining, a rare bright spot amid the economic downturn.

“Argentina has been granting concessions to projects for the last 10 years,” said Franco Mignacco, president of the Argentine Mining Business Chamber. “That’s why today we have this level of lithium investment and development and the possibility of growth.”

Mignacco estimated that Argentina’s current production of 40,000 tons of lithium carbonate could triple by 2024-2025 to 120,000 tons, which could take it beyond China and closer to Chile, which currently produces about 180,000 tons per year.

That would be driven by new projects coming online in addition to the two currently in production. The country has six lithium projects under construction and 15 in advanced exploration or feasibility stage, Mignacco said.

Argentina, Bolivia and Chile together sit on half of the world’s mineral resources beneath otherworldly salt flats in the high-altitude Andean plains.
But strategies for developing it diverge.

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“Argentina’s lithium sector has thrived through a decentralized pro-market strategy,” said Benjamin Gedan, director of the Latin America program at The Wilson Center, adding that, in contrast, Bolivia’s lithium sector “has repeatedly stagnated as a result of excessive state control.”

Chile, he said, may have found a “smart middle ground” with its public-private model, which would hand majority control of all new lithium projects to the state in a nationalist shift, but would still give private enterprise a key role.

The wave of resource nationalism has sparked some talk among officials of a possible OPEC-style lithium cartel in the region, although analysts see this as unrealistic given the industry’s diverse models and levels of development.

Meanwhile, Argentina faces challenges including economic turbulence with high inflation and capital controls complicating business, while the country heads into general elections in October, creating political uncertainty.

However, its lithium pipeline may keep the sector buzzing and even gain ground on rivals. Overtaking neighboring Chile would be highly unlikely, but some analysts were aiming high.

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“Chile today produces and exports much more lithium than Argentina,” said Natacha Izquierdo, an analyst at consultancy ABCEB. “But if the projects we have here today come to fruition, Argentina could overtake us.”

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