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Lula, back in Brasilia, gets down to politics

Photo: Sergio Lima / AFP

| By AFP |

President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva met the leaders of both houses of Congress Wednesday, calling for “dialogue” in a divided Brazil as he sought support for his agenda after his inauguration on January 1.

The veteran leftist, who narrowly defeated far-right President Jair Bolsonaro in last month’s elections, is scrambling to secure support for his social spending plans ahead of his swearing-in, but is far short of a majority in Congress.

Making his return to the capital, Brasilia, the former president (2003-2010) kicked things off by meeting the speaker of the lower house, Arthur Lira, previously a Bolsonaro ally.

“The country needs dialogue and normality,” Lula posted on Twitter afterwards, along with a video of he and Lira shaking hands.

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He also met Senate president Rodrigo Pacheco.

Brazil was left torn by the October 30 runoff election, which brought a curtain down on four polarizing years under Bolsonaro — who lost by the slimmest margin in the country’s modern history.

Lula, 77, faces the task of healing the nation’s wounds — but also more pragmatic concerns for Latin America’s biggest economy.

That includes finding money for campaign promises such as a minimum-wage increase and continuing a beefed-up welfare program of 600 reais ($115) a month that was introduced by Bolsonaro but not funded in his 2023 budget.

Lula is racing to find the needed funding, with options such as passing a constitutional amendment allowing the government to break its spending cap next year.

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That would likely require support from Lira, who is from a loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for government pork.

Vice President-elect Geraldo Alckmin, who is heading Lula’s transition team, said Tuesday the incoming administration was still evaluating other options, as well.

Lula also had meetings Wednesday with Supreme Court Chief Justice Rosa Weber and Superior Electoral Tribunal head Alexandre de Moraes.

Anticipation is meanwhile running high for his first cabinet appointments, especially from markets anxious over the key post of finance minister.

Alckmin named a four-member economic transition team Tuesday, with two market-friendly economists and two close to Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT).

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International

U.S. strike in Caracas killed 32 cuban security officers, experts say surprise was crucial

Two days after a U.S. military attack on a military complex in Caracas, Havana confirmed that 32 members of its security forces were killed in the operation, some of whom were likely responsible for protecting Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. The Venezuelan government also reported that 23 of its own military personnel died during the assault.

Of the Cuban dead, 21 belonged to the Ministry of the Interior, which oversees intelligence services, and 11 were from the Revolutionary Armed Forces. No official information has been released regarding potential injuries.

Experts consulted by AFP agreed that the element of surprise was the key to the success of the U.S. military operation, which was meticulously prepared over months and kept entirely secret. “Cuban intelligence … convinced the Maduro regime and its security agencies that the United States would never attack Venezuelan territory,” explained José Gustavo Arocha, a former Venezuelan army officer and expert at the Center for a Secure Free Society, a U.S. defense think tank.

Fulton Armstrong, a former U.S. intelligence officer and Latin America researcher at American University in Washington, also highlighted the failure to anticipate the attack and to detect U.S. helicopters entering Venezuelan airspace, noting that even a five- to ten-minute warning could have made a significant difference for the guards and for Maduro.

U.S. forces additionally benefited from “incredible” real-time intelligence provided by stealth drones to monitor movements of the Venezuelan leader, according to experts. A highly sophisticated combat team was deployed, and analysts believe the order to “fire to kill” was likely given.

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Paul Hare, former British ambassador to Cuba and Venezuela, added that Cuban intelligence also underestimated the extent of U.S. access to internal cooperation within Venezuela’s security apparatus, contributing to the operation’s success.

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International

Report: Vatican mediation included russian asylum offer ahead of Maduro’s capture

The Vatican reportedly attempted to negotiate an offer of asylum in Russia for Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro before his capture by U.S. forces last Saturday, according to The Washington Post.

The U.S. newspaper reported that Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin spoke with U.S. Ambassador to the Holy See Brian Burch about a supposed Russian proposal to grant Maduro asylum. A source familiar with the offer said that what was proposed “was that he would leave and be able to enjoy his money,” and that part of the plan involved Russian President Vladimir Putin guaranteeing Maduro’s security.

Despite these diplomatic efforts, the United States carried out a military operation that resulted in Maduro’s capture and detention, along with his wife Cilia Flores, who are now being held in New York on narcoterrorism charges.

The Washington Post also noted that U.S. President Donald Trump may have invited Maduro to Washington for in-person discussions about safe conduct, an offer that Maduro reportedly declined.

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International

Pope Leo XIV warns of rising “war enthusiasm” in global politics

“War is becoming fashionable again, and war enthusiasm is spreading.” Pope Leo XIV delivered a somber assessment of international politics on Friday, sharply criticizing the growing reliance on force by nations at a time when his country of birth is increasing military displays.

While offering New Year’s greetings to the diplomatic corps, the U.S.-born pope — who also holds Peruvian nationality — delivered one of his strongest speeches to date, denouncing the “worrying weakening of multilateralism” and the emergence of what he described as “war enthusiasm.”

From the outset of his address to ambassadors accredited to the Holy See, delivered in English, the pontiff lamented the rise of a “diplomacy of force, by individuals or groups of allied states,” at the expense of dialogue, warning that such trends threaten the global order established after World War II.

“Peace is no longer sought as a gift or as a good desirable in itself, or as the pursuit of ‘the establishment of an order willed by God, one that entails greater justice among human beings.’ Instead, it is pursued through weapons as a condition for asserting one’s own dominance,” the head of the Catholic Church said, without directly naming any country.

His remarks come amid ongoing conflicts between Ukraine and Russia and in the Gaza Strip, and against a broader international backdrop marked by European concerns over a potential U.S. takeover of Greenland, the autonomous Danish territory, a scenario that could threaten the cohesion of NATO.

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