To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.
The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.
If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.
Advertisement
20240410_mh_renta_728x90
20240426_bcr_censo_728x90
20231124_etesal_728x90_1
20230816_dgs_728x90
20230601_agenda_primera_infancia_728X90
CEL
CEL
SSF
SSF
SSF
The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.
“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.
“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”
Deal-making time
Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.
“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.
Advertisement
20240410_mh_renta_728x90
20240426_bcr_censo_728x90
20231124_etesal_728x90_1
20230816_dgs_728x90
20230601_agenda_primera_infancia_728X90
CEL
CEL
SSF
SSF
SSF
Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.
Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).
Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.
Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”
Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.
Advertisement
20240410_mh_renta_728x90
20240426_bcr_censo_728x90
20231124_etesal_728x90_1
20230816_dgs_728x90
20230601_agenda_primera_infancia_728X90
CEL
CEL
SSF
SSF
SSF
She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.
“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.
Big spending shelved
Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.
He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.
But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.
Advertisement
20240410_mh_renta_728x90
20240426_bcr_censo_728x90
20231124_etesal_728x90_1
20230816_dgs_728x90
20230601_agenda_primera_infancia_728X90
CEL
CEL
SSF
SSF
SSF
Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.
The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.
“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”
Back to the future?
Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.
“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.
Advertisement
20240410_mh_renta_728x90
20240426_bcr_censo_728x90
20231124_etesal_728x90_1
20230816_dgs_728x90
20230601_agenda_primera_infancia_728X90
CEL
CEL
SSF
SSF
SSF
“He needs to present plans for the future.”
If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.
“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.
“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”
Advertisement
20240410_mh_renta_728x90
20240426_bcr_censo_728x90
20231124_etesal_728x90_1
20230816_dgs_728x90
20230601_agenda_primera_infancia_728X90
CEL
CEL
SSF
SSF
SSF
Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)
The new truce plan in Gaza includes “many demands” from Hamas, according to an Egyptian source
The talks held between delegations from Egypt and Israel in Tel Aviv for a truce in Gaza were “largely positive and successful” and included “many of the demands” of the Islamist movement Hamas, an Egyptian security source familiar with the negotiations and another from Hamas reported to EFE on Sunday.
A delegation from Hamas, headed by the member of the political bureau Khalil al-The Hague, is expected to arrive tomorrow in Cairo, mediator in the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian group, to deliver its response to the mediators, according to the Egyptian source, which asked not to be identified by the sensitivity of this issue.
This new proposal, on whose content it did not provide details, “overcomes the obstacles that hinder” the declaration of a truce, a ceasefire, the exchange of prisoners and hostages, as well as the entry of aid into the Gaza Strip.
The possible announcement of a truce “will contribute to the approval of a first phase and to the efforts of the entire international community to consolidate this ceasefire and seek to move to a permanent truce instead of a temporary one,” according to the informant.
On the other hand, a source of the Palestinian Islamist movement, which also asked for anonymity, confirmed to EFE that tomorrow a delegation from Hamas will arrive in the Egyptian capital to present its response to the new Israeli proposal.
The informant added that the proposal includes “reducing the minimum number of kidnapped that Hamas will commit to freeing and eliminating divisions in sections of the Gaza Strip.”
Last Friday, an Egyptian mediating delegation traveled to Tel Aviv to discuss this truce with Israel, while the Jewish State has warned that it will not allow the Palestinian group to delay and has once again threatened to invade Rafah, at the southern end of the strip and where more than a million refugees are overcrowded.
Hamas warns the United Kingdom that if it sends soldiers to Gaza they will be a “legitimate” military target
The Palestinian Islamist group Hamas warned the United Kingdom on Sunday that if it deploys military personnel in the Gaza Strip, after information that they could help in the distribution of humanitarian aid, they will be “legitimate targets” of its armed wing.
“We alert Britain, or any other country, against the deployment of forces on land or on the coast of the Gaza Strip and affirm that they will be legitimate targets for our people and their resistance,” Hamas said in a statement.
The armed group charged against any initiative in the Palestinian enclave that does not have its approval.
The Islamist group responded to the information released on Saturday by the British network BBC, according to which the British Armed Forces could deploy troops to deliver humanitarian aid on the ground arriving in Gaza through the new floating dock that is being built by Israel and the United States.
The public broadcaster indicated that the United Kingdom could be the intermediary to which the United States referred when it said that it would not be the American soldiers, but others, who would distribute the food packages sent by ship from Cyprus and then transferred to Gaza.
Yesterday, the Israeli Army assured at a press conference with international media that international organizations would be in charge of the distribution of humanitarian aid, but did not indicate which ones would have agreed to collaborate.
Although the British Government has not confirmed the news, the BBC affirms, according to anonymous sources, that the Ministry of Defense is considering getting involved with ‘wet boots’ on the ground.
The possible role of the British forces would involve driving the trucks with the help from the landing boats on the floating runway, hundreds of meters long, and delivering it to a safe distribution area on dry land, the station explained.
The London Ministry of Defense reported on Friday, in turn, that the British Navy auxiliary ship RFA Cardigan Bay set sail from Cyprus to provide support for the construction of the temporary dock, which is led by the United States.
This ship will provide accommodation for hundreds of American sailors and soldiers, about whom Washington has made it clear that they will not set foot in Gaza territory.
Nancy Pelosi says that Netanyahu “could not have made things worse” in Gaza
Former President of the United States House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi said that the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, “could not have made things worse” in the conflict in Gaza, in an interview broadcast this Sunday by the BBC.
Pelosi, who on Thursday participated in an event at the English university of Oxford, told the ‘Laura Kuenssberg Program’ that Netanyahu “was never a peace agent” and admitted that she “is not a great fan of his.”
The congresswoman said that what is happening in the Strip “challenges the conscience of the world” and maintained that the impact of famine on children “is almost unforgivable”, while calling the Hamas attack on Israeli territory on October 7 “barbaric”.
“Israel has the right to defend itself, but the way it is doing it is a challenge because Netanyahu has never been a peace agent,” he said.
“I’m not a great admirer of yours; I couldn’t have done things worse than those tens of thousands, or whatever number it is, of dead people, malnourished children and the uncertainty that exists… and that’s what people are talking about,” he said.
Asked if she understood why young people in the United States used controversial tactics when protesting against the conflict, Pelosi opined that “when they go beyond the campuses and block the Golden Gate Bridge, or something else, for a long time, and people can’t go to the doctor or the hospital or anything urgent in their lives, they don’t get support.”
But he added: “How can demonstrations on (university) campuses be criticized? That’s a way of life in the United States.”
On Thursday, the British police evicted two pro-Palestinian protesters who protested during their speech on populism to students from the University of Oxford, while abroad another group criticized her for her defense of Israel and her position on the movement to support Palestine.
