International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
Latin Music Stars Unite in Miami to Raise Aid for Victims of Venezuela’s Devastating Earthquake
Latin music stars including Marc Anthony, Ricardo Montaner and Feid will take part in a benefit concert in Miami on August 16 to raise funds and support victims of the devastating double earthquake that struck Venezuela.
The disaster has left 4,734 people dead and 16,740 injured, according to the latest official figures.
The lineup will also feature artists such as Jay Wheeler, Elena Rose, Silvestre Dangond, Gente de Zona, Mau y Ricky, Olga Tañón, Lasso, San Luis, Piso 21, Alleh, Zhamira Zambrano and Enrique Santos, with organizers expecting additional performers to join the event in the coming weeks.
Athletes, actors, entertainment figures, media personalities and leaders from the Hispanic community are also expected to participate in the initiative.
Organized by the United for Venezuela coalition, the concert will take place at the Kaseya Center in Miami starting at 6:00 p.m. local time (10:00 p.m. GMT) and will be broadcast simultaneously through multiple platforms.
According to organizers, viewers will be able to contribute through donation platforms and QR codes available during the event.
The concert will also feature reports on rescue efforts, the work of humanitarian organizations on the ground, and testimonies from people affected by the disaster to highlight the scale of the tragedy.
Venezuela was hit on June 24 by a powerful double earthquake measuring 7.2 and 7.5 in magnitude, with the strongest impacts reported in areas including Caracas and La Guaira.
The event aims to bring together the international community and mobilize resources to assist families affected by the earthquake and support ongoing recovery efforts.
International
Trump Administration Seeks Global Action Against “Resurgent” Left-Wing Terrorism
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will host a ministerial meeting in Washington on Thursday to discuss what the Donald Trump administration describes as a growing threat from left-wing terrorism around the world.
According to a statement from the State Department, the meeting aims to promote “stronger joint action” among international partners to address what Washington considers security gaps that terrorist groups continue to exploit.
The U.S. government has not yet disclosed which countries will participate in the meeting or which foreign ministers are expected to attend.
The Trump administration claims that “far-left terrorism is resurging”, pointing to violent attacks linked to extremist movements in the Americas, Europe, Asia, and other regions.
U.S. officials argue that the threat has been “underestimated” by the international community for years as part of broader counterterrorism strategies.
As part of its efforts, the Trump administration has designated several left-wing extremist groups as terrorist organizations, including Antifa Ost, the Informal Anarchist Federation/International Revolutionary Front (FAI/FRI), Armed Proletarian Justice, and Revolutionary Class Self-Defense.
The United States has also announced rewards of up to $10 million for information that helps disrupt the financial networks supporting those organizations.
The meeting comes as the Trump administration seeks greater international cooperation on counterterrorism policies and increased coordination among governments to address what it considers emerging extremist threats.
International
President Noboa Declares New Security Strategy as Ecuador Faces Record Violence Levels
Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa on Tuesday declared the National Comprehensive Security Plan 2025-2029 as a nationwide public policy, a strategy aimed at guiding state actions on security matters over the next four years.
The measure was formalized through an executive decree that activates the plan approved on March 9 by the Public and State Security Council (Cosepe) and replaces the National Comprehensive Security Plan 2019-2030, which had been designated as public policy in 2021.
Under the new decree, implementation of the strategy will be led by the ministries of Interior, Defense, and Foreign Affairs and Human Mobility, along with the National Intelligence Center and the National Secretariat for Risk Management. These institutions will be responsible for coordinating actions according to their respective areas of responsibility.
According to the official document, the new plan adopts a multidimensional and comprehensive security approach, with a long-term vision focused on national interests and on strengthening the State’s ability to respond to current threats.
The Ecuadorian government said the strategy seeks to improve coordination among public institutions within the framework of the “internal armed conflict” declared by Noboa in 2024 as part of the fight against criminal organizations operating across the country.
The plan also includes measures to strengthen international cooperation against transnational organized crime, which authorities identify as one of Ecuador’s main security challenges due to its links to drug trafficking and illegal mining.
The government described the document as a roadmap for prevention, protection, response and recovery actions in the face of national security risks, promoting coordinated efforts among state institutions.
Ecuador has remained under an internal armed conflict declaration since 2024, when Noboa intensified operations against criminal gangs that his administration has labeled terrorist organizations. Despite the increased security measures, the country recorded around 9,300 homicides in 2025, the highest figure in its history, according to data from the Ministry of Interior.
The new security plan comes as Ecuador seeks to strengthen its institutional response to escalating violence and the growing influence of organized crime networks.
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