International
Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty
AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux
After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.
Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.
Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.
Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.
“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”
Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.
Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.
‘Emboldened’
The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.
Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”
Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”
Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.
Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.
“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”
This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.
“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.
“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.
Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.
Headed for an upset?
Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.
“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.
A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”
It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.
Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.
“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.
Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”
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A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)
International
Mexican authorities bust Meth Lab and seize tons of drugs and chemicals in multiple states
Mexican authorities dismantled a clandestine laboratory containing 2.5 tons of methamphetamine in the southeastern state of Chiapas, seized a warehouse with more than four tons of chemical precursors in Guerrero (south), and intercepted a trailer in Tijuana attempting to cross into the United States with 2.7 tons of drugs.
Omar García Harfuch, head of the Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protection (SSPC), reported on Saturday via social media that agents from the Criminal Investigation Agency of the Attorney General’s Office (FGR), along with representatives from the Defense Secretariat, Navy (Semar), National Guard (GN), and SSPC, disabled the methamphetamine production lab in Chiapas and confiscated 2.5 tons of the drug.
A statement specified that the agents secured 2.5 tons of methamphetamine, barrels containing substances used to manufacture synthetic drugs, a firearm, and four trucks. In another operation in Guerrero, authorities located over four tons of chemical substances.
The discovery took place on a property in the community of Margarita Maza, Juárez, used to store materials for synthetic drug production. Sufficient evidence was collected and presented to a control judge who authorized the intervention of the property.
In Chiapas, authorities also seized more than 300 barrels and containers with chemicals for making synthetic drugs, as well as various metal containers and devices.
International
Maduro gains support from Venezuelan Assembly amid U.S. drug trafficking accusations
The National Assembly of Venezuela expressed its support this Saturday for President Nicolás Maduro, condemning the United States’ increase in the reward offered for his capture as an “act of aggression.”
U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi announced on Thursday that Washington had doubled the reward to $50 million for Maduro’s capture, labeling him as one of the “world’s largest drug traffickers.”
“We reject the absurd and desperate actions announced by the U.S. Attorney General’s Office, which are clearly illegal and lack any real basis, beyond being a delirious attempt of aggression against the president (…) and against our rebellious and brave people,” said the Assembly leader, Jorge Rodríguez, while reading a letter he said was unanimously approved by the deputies.
“It is precisely President Nicolás Maduro (…) the protector of the strong democracy that shelters us and the leader who firmly upholds the rule of law and justice,” Rodríguez continued. He is also Venezuela’s chief negotiator in talks with Washington.
Bondi accused Maduro of using “terrorist organizations like the Tren de Aragua, the Sinaloa cartel, and the Cartel of the Suns to introduce lethal drugs and violence” into the United States.
“In 25 years of revolution, we have resisted and advanced despite constant imperialist aggressions. They have not succeeded, and will not succeed, with crude sanctions, criminal blockades, or senseless threats in diverting the noble path the Venezuelan people charted in the free elections of July 28, 2024, in which Nicolás Maduro was elected President of the Republic,” the statement read.
The Venezuelan opposition alleges fraud in those elections and claims victory, and as a result, has boycotted the 2025 legislative, regional, and municipal elections.
International
U.S. doubles bounty on Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro to $50 million
In February, the United States designated eight Latin American criminal organizations as “global terrorist” groups, including Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua, and the MS-13 gang. In July, it added the Cartel of the Suns to the list — a group Washington claims is led by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Last Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration doubled the reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest, raising it from $25 million to $50 million, U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi announced on social media platform X.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio explained that labeling the Cartel of the Suns as a terrorist organization allows for a strategic shift in dealing with the Venezuelan regime, as it is now also considered a direct threat to U.S. national security, according to El Espectador.
In an interview with The World Over on EWTN, Rubio said the designation enables the U.S. to “use intelligence agencies, the Department of Defense, or any other element of American power to go after them.” He stressed this is no longer just a law enforcement matter, but a national security operation.
When asked at the White House whether he believes it is worth sending the military to combat Latin American drug cartels, Trump responded:
“Latin America has many cartels, a lot of drug trafficking, so, you know, we want to protect our country. We have to protect it.”
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