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Inconclusive vote: Brazil wakes up to four more weeks of uncertainty

Photo: Mauro Pimentel / AFP

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, Brazilians woke up Monday to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest.

Seeking to make a spectacular comeback, ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, 67.

Lula got 48.4 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round, followed by Bolsonaro with a much closer-than-expected 43.2 percent that seemed to signal a high level of enthusiasm for his conservative brand of “God, country and family” politics.

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Lula had gone into Sunday’s first round with 50 percent of polled voter intention, and Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

The divisive president’s surprise performance likely spells a difficult time ahead, analysts said.

“I think it will be a very stressful campaign,” Leonardo Paz, Brazil consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“Bolsonaro and Lula will come… for each other, and I think Bolsonaro will double down on… saying that the system was against him.”

Bolsonaro has repeatedly sought to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system and has questioned the validity of opinion polls that have consistently placed him a distant second.

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Now, with real-life results seeming to bear out his claims, “more people… may believe in what Bolsonaro is saying,” said Paz.

‘Emboldened’

The incumbent president has repeatedly hinted that he would not accept a Lula victory, raising fears of a Brazilian version of the riots last year at the US Capitol after former president Donald Trump refused to accept his election loss.

Bolsonaro “will be very emboldened,” by Sunday’s electoral performance, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

“It will give him some momentum because he’s beaten the expectations… He will play on that the experts were wrong: ‘I’ve got the momentum and I’ll defy expectations again in the second round’.”

Late Sunday, Bolsonaro proclaimed to journalists: “We defeated the opinion polls’ lie.”

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Passions will be high on both sides for the next four weeks.

Lula’s failure to pull off a first-round victory leaves Bolsonaro with “an extra month to cause turmoil in the streets,” political scientist Guilherme Casaroes of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV) Sao Paulo School of Business Administration told AFP.

“Any kind of doubt that he casts upon the electoral system will work in his favor… demobilizing voters not to go vote for Lula.”

This would mean hammering on Lula’s flaws, including his controversial conviction for corruption — since overturned in court, but not necessarily in the court of public opinion — and the 18 months he spent in jail.

“Certainly he (Bolsonaro) is very capable of revving up his base and they could interpret that (as the all-clear) to go after Lula supporters… You can’t rule it out,” said Shifter.

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“There’s just a lot of rancor and a lot of hate and a lot of distrust and it would not be surprising if some of that leads to some unrest,” he added.

Any violence, however, was likely to be in the form of isolated incidents and not organized, just like it has been so far, analysts said.

Headed for an upset?

Sunday’s election outcome also suggested Bolsonaro cannot be written off.

“Lula’s chances of being elected seem considerably slighter,” said Casaroes.

A ‘Bolsonarist’ wave energized by the first-round results “will boost the president’s campaign and may help demobilize the non-convinced voters of Lula.”

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It also means Lula will have to “court centrists and even conservatives much more aggressively during the next four weeks,” said the FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel, possibly hurting his standing with more radical leftist supporters.

Conversely, the disappointing result for Lula supporters might also serve to fire them up ahead of the next round.

“People that perhaps did not… vote because they thought that Bolsonaro would lose… they might go” vote in the next round, said Paz.

Added Casaroes: “Those who really care for democracy in the country will have to get off the couch. Occupying the public space against a strengthened Bolsonarism may be difficult, but it is the only way to prevent Bolsonaro’s long-run authoritarian project from consolidating at all levels.”

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  • A man looks at Brazilian newspapers at a newsstand showing headlines about the election results of the first round of Brazil presidential election in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 3, 2022. - Brazil's bitterly divisive presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30 as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro beat expectations to finish a closer-than-expected second to front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

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Israel compares the protests in Columbia at the UN with a passage from Nazi Germany

Israel’s representative to the UN, Gilad Erdan, compared on Wednesday the pro-Palestinian protests at Columbia University (New York), where 109 detainees took place on Tuesday night, with ‘The Night of Broken Glass’, a series of lynchings and combined attacks against the Jewish population coordinated by Nazi Germany in 1938.

“Those who resorted to Nazism at the time, are today breaking windows, attacking Jewish students and asking to be expelled from the university campus. The images we have seen in Columbia remind us of ‘The Night of the Crystals’,” said the diplomat at the plenary of the General Assembly on Wednesday, where the recent U.S. veto on the entry of Palestine as a full member was discussed.

On April 19, the United States vetoed in the Security Council the resolution that opened the door to the entry of Palestine as a full member of the UN, of which it is now only an observer.

With his words, Erdan referred to the moment when a group of pro-Palestinian students demonstrating on the Columbia campus broke several windows of the emblematic Hamilton Hall building and entrenched themselves inside.

“The anti-Semites did not manage to annihilate us during the Holocaust, neither in 1948, nor in 1967 nor in 1978. Today they are trying again, not only with terrorism and war, but also using the UN,” he stressed, in his already recurring speech against the organization, which he accuses of being favorable to Palestine.

“The elite universities, alleged bastions of liberalism, have become the breeding ground for racism and the most horrible hatred,” he added, also asking that “letters on the matter” be taken against the faculties and the presidents of the centers.

The protests over the war in Gaza that began in Columbia almost two weeks ago have spread like wildfire through other centers in the United States, ending in the arrest of hundreds of students and becoming the most massive and widespread university protests since the Vietnam War in 1968.

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International

The Biden administration will forgive $6.1 billion in debt of art students

The U.S. Government announced on Wednesday that it will forgive more than 6.1 billion dollars in debt of about 317,000 students of the Art Institute, a large network of private schools spread throughout the country that had to close due to several crises.

The announcement of the Department of Education indicated that the benefit will be for students who enrolled in any of the headquarters of the Institute of Art between January 1, 2004 and October 16, 2017, just before the network of design schools lost its accreditation and began their problems to maintain its activity, which ceased in 2023.

“The Department determined that that institute and the owning company Education Management Corporation made false statements to potential students about employment possibilities, salaries and services in that period,” the statement said.

In October 2017, the company sold the remaining headquarters and all the still existing properties of the Art Institute, under a different owner, ceased operations in September 2023.

“For more than a decade, hundreds of thousands of hopeful students took loans to attend the Institute of Art and received little in return,” said the Secretary of Education, Miguel Carmona.

“We have to continue protecting borrowers from predatory institutions, and work for an education system that is affordable for students and taxpayers who pay taxes,” the official added.

Today’s announcement comes when the presidential election is less than 29 weeks away and Joe Biden’s government faces a wave of protests in universities against the support that the United States gives to Israel in its war in Gaza.

In June 2023, in a decision supported by the six conservative magistrates, the Supreme Court of Justice ruled that Biden’s Executive had exceeded his powers with a plan for the cancellation of about $400 billion in student debt.

That plan would have benefited more than 43 million people, according to the Government’s calculations. Since then, Biden has approved measures that have been canceling or reducing the debts of different segments of the indebted population.

Through adjustments in debt relief programs, the Department of Education has eliminated debts for a total of almost 160 billion dollars incurred in the university education of 4.6 million people, according to the official statement.

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Blinken praises a truce proposal and Netanyahu gets stuck in his rejection at the end of the war

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken again praised today in Israel the latest proposal for a truce in Gaza that is still being studied by the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted on his rejection of a definitive ceasefire in the Strip.

Blinken, who is embarking on his seventh visit to the region since the outbreak of war, on October 7, met today with Netanyahu in Jerusalem and hours earlier with the Israeli president, Isaac Herzog, to whom he reiterated his commitment to achieve a truce agreement “now” that will return the hostages and improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

“We are determined to achieve a ceasefire that will take the hostages home, and to achieve it now. And the only reason why that would not be achieved would be because of Hamas. There is a proposal on the table. And as we have said, no delays, no excuses. The time is now,” Blinken said, according to a statement from the Israeli president’s spokesman.

In addition, Herzog reiterated that Israel complies with international law and expressed its rejection of the International Criminal Court (ICC), due to the possibility of it issue arrest warrants for alleged war crimes against three senior Israeli officials, including Netanyahu, according to the newspaper Haaretz on Monday.

“I appeal to all our allies and friends to reject such attempts” from the ICC, asked Herzog, who also assured that the “immediate return of the hostages” should be “the highest priority” of the international community.

Blinken also had words today for the relatives of the hostages, and before a group of Israeli protesters who were asking in front of his hotel in Tel Aviv for a truce agreement to be reached, he insisted that the only thing missing is for Hamas to say yes.

“At the moment there is a very strong proposal on the table, Hamas needs to say yes, it is necessary for him to carry it out,” Blinken said according to a statement from his Office.

“We will not rest, we will not stop until you meet with your loved ones, so please stay strong, keep the faith, we will be with you every day until we achieve it,” Blinken told the demonstrators.

In the meeting with Netanyahu in his office in Jerusalem, the Israeli Prime Minister told Blinken that he will not accept an agreement if it includes the end of the war in Gaza, which has already caused the death of more than 34,500 Palestinians, 72% women and children, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health.

At the meeting, Netanyahu warned that if Hamas does not renounce its demand for a permanent ceasefire, there will be no agreement and Israel will invade the town of Rafah, where 1.4 million people are crowded, said the Israeli media Walla, who cited Israeli and American officials.

One of the demands of the Palestinian group would be that in a second phase of the agreement, Israel would commit to ending its offensive in the Strip, something that, according to the source, Netanyahu is opposed.

The Israeli proposal, which is currently studying Hamas, includes Israel’s intention to discuss during a second phase of the agreement “the return of a sustainable calm” in the Gaza Strip, a formula that, as the media itself points out, does not include an explicit commitment to the end of the war.

After 208 days of war, the Gaza Strip is in a state of devastation, with 80% of its population forcibly displaced, water scarcity and an extreme lack of food, which has pushed about 210,000 people on the verge of famine in the north, in addition to a growing proliferation of diseases.

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