Central America
Analysts predict opposition defeat in 2024 elections in El Salvador
October 5 |
The low voting intention and preference, according to several polls, that the population maintains towards the traditional political parties for next year’s elections “is irreversible”, therefore, the electoral triumph of Nayib Bukele at the polls is imminent, according to analysts and sociologists René Martínez and Mauricio Rodríguez.
Both agree that it will be difficult for the traditional parties (ARENA and FMLN) to attract more voters, due to the discontent of Salvadorans for the bad management of their municipal and presidential administrations.
Data from the last opinion poll of the Universidad Francisco Gavidia (UFG) indicated that the tricolor presidential ticket [Joel Sánchez and Hilcia Bonilla] has a voting intention of 4.3 %; and the farabundista candidates [Manuel Flores and Wérner Marroquín] of 2.8 %.
In view of this scenario, in the middle of the beginning of the legal term for the presidential electoral campaign, Martínez and Rodríguez warned that the opposition parties could resort to the “dirty campaign”, as a mechanism to attack Nayib Bukele, candidate of Nuevas Ideas who will compete for immediate reelection, enabled based on the sentence 1-2021 of the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice which reinterpreted article 152 of the Constitution of the Republic.
“On the part of the opposition candidates, who together would not even reach 10% of the popular support, what is expected is “dirty war”, false news, defamation, continuous calls to return to the past of corruption and impunity and, above all, promises to remove the regime of exception and release terrorist criminals”, considered Martinez.
The presidential elections are scheduled for February 4, 2024, according to the calendar of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). In these elections, in addition to citizens residing in El Salvador, the diaspora will also be able to vote by means of electronic voting via Internet and electronic voting in person, according to the provisions of the Special Law for the Exercise of Suffrage Abroad, approved by the Legislative Assembly last year.
Unlike the opposition, analysts valued, Nayib Bukele maintains the leadership in voting intentions and citizen preference, results that will be ratified at the polls, by virtue of his work in favor of Salvadorans, highlighting security with the fight against gangs.
The same UFG survey that projected the unfavorable scenario for the opposition established that the presidential formula of Nuevas Ideas [Nayib Bukele and Félix Ulloa] have a voting intention of 68. 4%, which increases to 87% only with valid votes.
“Re-election is imminent. I believe that if the first presidential term [of Nayib Bukele] was to settle public security, the second term is to empower the country’s economic sectors,” said Rodríguez.
Central America
OAS urges swift recount in Honduras as election results remain uncertain
The Organization of American States (OAS) electoral observation mission in Honduras reported findings of a “lack of expertise” and “delays” in the vote-counting process, but stated that it found no indications that would cast doubt on the results of the November 30 general elections, according to a report presented to the organization’s Permanent Council.
The delay by electoral authorities in releasing the final results “is not justifiable,” said former Paraguayan foreign minister Eladio Loizaga while reading the report.
Honduras marked two weeks on Monday without knowing who its next president will be, following elections in which conservative candidate Nasry Asfura, backed by U.S. President Donald Trump, holds a lead of less than two percentage points over fellow right-wing contender Salvador Nasralla.
Accusations of fraud have dominated Honduras’ political landscape since polls closed on the last Sunday of November.
In addition to Nasralla’s complaints, the current government led by leftist President Xiomara Castro has described Trump’s support for Asfura as an “electoral coup.”
The U.S. president has warned of “serious consequences” if the current results were to change and strip Asfura, a 67-year-old businessman, of his lead.
Although more than 99 percent of the votes have been counted, nearly 2,800 tally sheets contain “inconsistencies” and must be reviewed through a special recount, the National Electoral Council (CNE) said.
“The Mission urgently calls on the electoral authorities to immediately begin the special recount and to pursue all possible avenues to obtain official results as quickly as possible. The current delay in processing and publishing the results is not justifiable,” the head of the OAS mission told members of the organization.
Central America
Panama seizes over three tons of drugs hidden in Caribbean port container
Panama’s National Air and Naval Service (Senan) reported on Sunday the seizure of more than three metric tons of drugs that were concealed inside a shipping container at a port terminal on the country’s Caribbean coast.
According to a statement posted on X, Panamanian aeronaval authorities confirmed the confiscation of 3,205 packages of a suspected illicit substance hidden inside a container in transit through Panama, at a port facility in the Caribbean province of Colón. Each package typically weighs approximately one kilogram.
Earlier this week, Senan agents also seized an additional 2.2 metric tons of drugs and arrested five individuals, including a Colombian national, in separate operations linked to drug trafficking activities.
Panama serves as a major transit route for drugs produced in South America and destined mainly for the United States — the world’s largest consumer of cocaine — and Europe. According to official figures, Panamanian authorities seized approximately 80 metric tons of illicit substances in 2024.
Central America
Honduras election crisis deepens as CNE president denounces intimidation attempts
Tegucigalpa remains engulfed in a deep post-electoral crisis, marked by the absence of final results from the general elections held on November 30. On Thursday, the presiding counselor of the National Electoral Council (CNE), Ana Paola Hall, publicly denounced acts of intimidation that she warned could jeopardize the final phase of the process.
Following a meeting with the G-16+ diplomatic corps, Hall expressed concern over two specific incidents: a call by former president Manuel Zelaya summoning supporters of the Libre Party to gather outside the INFOP facilities—where electoral records and materials are being safeguarded—and a statement issued by the Permanent Commission of Congress accusing her and counselor Cossette López of alleged electoral crimes, an action she described as “baseless and outside their jurisdiction.”
Hall reaffirmed her institutional commitment and warned that she will not allow interference in the announcement of the results. “Honduras comes first,” she emphasized, underscoring her intention to defend the electoral process as a cornerstone of democracy.
Meanwhile, the preliminary results place Nasry ‘Tito’ Asfura, candidate of the National Party, in the lead with 40.52%of the vote, followed closely by Salvador Nasralla of the Liberal Party, with 39.48%. The ruling party’s candidate, Rixi Moncada of Libre, is in third place with 19.29%. Around 0.6% of the tally sheets—many of them showing inconsistencies—have yet to be reviewed.
The Organization of American States (OAS) called an extraordinary session of its Permanent Council to analyze the situation, while civil organizations and governments such as Paraguay’s urged respect for the popular will.
Honduran President Xiomara Castro accused the United States, and specifically former president Donald Trump, of obstructing the process, while also denouncing threats from gangs against voters aligned with her party.
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