Central America
Analysts predict opposition defeat in 2024 elections in El Salvador

October 5 |
The low voting intention and preference, according to several polls, that the population maintains towards the traditional political parties for next year’s elections “is irreversible”, therefore, the electoral triumph of Nayib Bukele at the polls is imminent, according to analysts and sociologists René Martínez and Mauricio Rodríguez.
Both agree that it will be difficult for the traditional parties (ARENA and FMLN) to attract more voters, due to the discontent of Salvadorans for the bad management of their municipal and presidential administrations.
Data from the last opinion poll of the Universidad Francisco Gavidia (UFG) indicated that the tricolor presidential ticket [Joel Sánchez and Hilcia Bonilla] has a voting intention of 4.3 %; and the farabundista candidates [Manuel Flores and Wérner Marroquín] of 2.8 %.
In view of this scenario, in the middle of the beginning of the legal term for the presidential electoral campaign, Martínez and Rodríguez warned that the opposition parties could resort to the “dirty campaign”, as a mechanism to attack Nayib Bukele, candidate of Nuevas Ideas who will compete for immediate reelection, enabled based on the sentence 1-2021 of the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice which reinterpreted article 152 of the Constitution of the Republic.
“On the part of the opposition candidates, who together would not even reach 10% of the popular support, what is expected is “dirty war”, false news, defamation, continuous calls to return to the past of corruption and impunity and, above all, promises to remove the regime of exception and release terrorist criminals”, considered Martinez.
The presidential elections are scheduled for February 4, 2024, according to the calendar of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). In these elections, in addition to citizens residing in El Salvador, the diaspora will also be able to vote by means of electronic voting via Internet and electronic voting in person, according to the provisions of the Special Law for the Exercise of Suffrage Abroad, approved by the Legislative Assembly last year.
Unlike the opposition, analysts valued, Nayib Bukele maintains the leadership in voting intentions and citizen preference, results that will be ratified at the polls, by virtue of his work in favor of Salvadorans, highlighting security with the fight against gangs.
The same UFG survey that projected the unfavorable scenario for the opposition established that the presidential formula of Nuevas Ideas [Nayib Bukele and Félix Ulloa] have a voting intention of 68. 4%, which increases to 87% only with valid votes.
“Re-election is imminent. I believe that if the first presidential term [of Nayib Bukele] was to settle public security, the second term is to empower the country’s economic sectors,” said Rodríguez.
Central America
Honduras sees ongoing killings of land defenders and attacks on press, warns NGO

The Association for Participatory Citizenship (ACI PARTICIPA) denounced on Thursday that killings of land defenders and attacks aimed at silencing the press continue in Honduras.
“We continue to see murders of defenders of land and territory, as well as aggressions to silence the press. In 2024, there were 490 attacks and aggressions that constitute human rights violations,” said ACI PARTICIPA’s executive director, Hedme Castro, during the presentation of the 2024 Report on the Situation of Human Rights Defenders in Honduras.
Castro noted that the aggressions range “from attempts on lives, threats, harassment, intimidation, and smear campaigns, which have become very frequent, to obstruction of work, surveillance, and criminalization.”
She highlighted that, although only seven defenders were killed in 2024 compared to 24 in 2023, “last year we saw a significantly high number of women murdered, and cases of missing children.”
Moreover, Castro criticized the authorities for failing to address the violence. “There is no response from the authorities to reduce the violence in the country; in fact, I believe that the ‘fathers of the nation’ (members of Parliament) are not setting the right example, and the situation in the Legislative branch is actually fueling violence,” she added, referring to frequent violent incidents in Congress.
The ACI PARTICIPA report also notes that the government led by President Xiomara Castro has made “an important effort over the past two years to improve citizens’ access to basic rights, helping to cushion the effects of economic deterioration, although a decent standard of living has yet to be achieved for the majority of Hondurans.”
Central America
Daniel Ortega’s last historic sandinista ally detained in Managua

Former Sandinista revolutionary commander and presidential economic adviser Bayardo Arce Castaño was arrested on Thursday in Managua for alleged irregular transactions involving state-owned assets, according to local media reports.
The arrest was carried out by agents from the Special Operations Directorate of the Police, who raided his residence in the southern part of the Nicaraguan capital. The Attorney General’s Office (PGR) is investigating Arce for “transactions and/or negotiations” that, according to authorities, do not comply with current legal standards.
Arce, 76, was one of the nine historic commanders of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) who led the overthrow of dictator Anastasio Somoza in 1979. Since 2007, he had served as the economic adviser to dictator Daniel Ortega, and was the last of the historic commanders still aligned with the regime.
The Attorney General’s Office accused Arce of contempt after he refused to appear for questioning about properties registered in his name. Authorities allege that Ricardo Bonilla, Arce’s assistant, was also involved in questionable financial dealings and was jailed after failing to comply with a summons.
Central America
Guatemala transfers top gang leaders to maximum security prison after funeral home massacre

At least 10 top leaders from the two main gangs operating in Guatemala were transferred in recent hours to a high-security prison, where they are now in isolation, following the murder of seven people at a funeral home on Tuesday night.
Guatemala’s Interior Minister Francisco Jiménez announced Thursday through official communication channels that the inmates moved are leaders of the Barrio 18 and Mara Salvatrucha gangs, who, in his words, “believed they were untouchable.”
The prisoners were taken from several facilities to the Renovación I Maximum Security Detention Center, inaugurated under the current administration of President Bernardo Arévalo de León and located in the department of Escuintla, about 50 kilometers south of Guatemala City.
The transfer operation involved more than 800 National Civil Police (PNC) officers, who initially faced resistance from the inmates, Jiménez added.
The isolated Barrio 18 leaders include Aldo Duppie Ochoa Mejía (alias El Lobo), Wilder Rodríguez Aguilar, Mayro De León Hernández, Jarvin Leonel Itzoy Cruz, and Manuel de Jesús Rivas Granados.
Also transferred were Jair de León Hernández (alias El Diabólico), Amílcar Galileo Torres Rosales, Nixon Bantes González, Ronal Bosbeli Choc Alemán, and Ángel Gabriel Reyes Marroquín.
The move came after a massacre at a funeral home in the Guatemalan capital, allegedly carried out by members of Mara Salvatrucha while a wake was being held for a supposed Barrio 18 member murdered on Monday. The attack left seven dead and 12 injured.
Jiménez emphasized that the violence in Guatemala is driven by territorial disputes over street-level drug sales and warned: “We will not allow more victims to be created by this gang confrontation.”
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