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Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

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His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

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Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

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Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

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Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

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In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

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International

Brazil helicopter crash in Rio de Janeiro kills six, including pilots and international figures

The Rio de Janeiro Civil Police confirmed on Monday the identities of three of the six victims killed in a helicopter collision that occurred the previous morning in the Recreio dos Bandeirantes neighborhood.

All three identified victims are Brazilian nationals: the pilots of the aircraft, Charles Marsillac and Alexandre Souza, and music producer Lucas Brito.

The identities of the three foreign victims have not yet been officially confirmed. They include U.S. singer Oliver Tree, Argentine YouTuber Gaspar Prim—known online as “Gaspi”—and Argentine producer Lucas Vignale, all of whom were listed on the flight manifest.

According to police, forensic experts from the Legal Medical Institute have already collected DNA samples in order to identify the foreign victims, whose bodies were severely burned.

One of the helicopters crashed into a private parking lot, triggering a fire that destroyed around twenty electric vehicles. That aircraft was carrying the pilot and four passengers, including the three foreign nationals.

The second helicopter, which had only the pilot on board, crashed approximately 100 meters away from the first impact site.

Rio de Janeiro’s deputy mayor, Eduardo Cavaliere, stated that both helicopters were operating transport flights toward Angra dos Reis on the Rio coastline and toward the mountainous region of the state.

Oliver Tree, 32, was in Brazil as part of an international tour. The artist, known for songs such as “Life Goes On” and “Miss You,” had performed to a large audience in São Paulo a week earlier and was scheduled to continue his tour in Europe.

Argentine content creator Gaspar Prim, 23, had built a following of more than two million on social media platforms, gaining popularity for humorous and often controversial video productions that had occasionally been removed by hosting platforms.

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International

Mexico and U.S. Launch New Bilateral Security Group to Combat Fentanyl and Organized Crime

The governments of Mexico and the United States officially launched the Bilateral Implementation Group (BIG) on Friday, a new initiative aimed at strengthening cooperation on security issues and enhancing joint efforts against transnational crime.

In a statement, U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ronald Johnson announced that he and Deputy Foreign Minister Roberto Velasco addressed officials from both countries who will lead what he described as a “new phase of bilateral cooperation.” The initiative seeks to curb the flow of fentanyl and other illicit drugs, illegal firearms, and human trafficking across the shared border.

Earlier this week, Mexico’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs had confirmed that senior security officials from both nations would meet in Mexico City on June 12 to review and advance existing cooperation agreements.

Through social media, Ambassador Johnson explained that the new bilateral group is designed to improve coordination between the two governments by placing greater emphasis on implementation, accountability, and measurable results. The effort will also focus on combating transnational criminal organizations operating across North America.

“The participation of 15 U.S. government agencies, working alongside their Mexican counterparts, reflects the seriousness of this effort and our shared commitment to delivering measurable results,” Johnson said.

The ambassador also highlighted several achievements that he attributed to ongoing bilateral cooperation. According to Johnson, maritime drug trafficking into the United States has declined by more than 95 percent, while overdose deaths have fallen by 35 percent.

He further noted that Mexican authorities have seized more than 400 metric tons of illegal drugs and dismantled over 2,300 clandestine laboratories as part of their efforts to combat organized crime and narcotics production.

The launch of the Bilateral Implementation Group marks the latest step in the security partnership between Mexico and the United States, as both countries seek to address shared challenges related to drug trafficking, arms smuggling, human trafficking, and the activities of criminal networks operating across the region.

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International

‘El Chapo’ Guzmán again asks Mexican president to seek his return from U.S. prison

Convicted drug trafficker Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán has once again appealed to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to intervene on his behalf and seek his transfer from the United States to Mexico, where he hopes to serve the remainder of his prison sentence.

Guzmán, the former leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, is currently serving a sentence of more than 50 years in the United States after being convicted in 2019 on multiple charges, including drug trafficking and money laundering.

According to reports, the latest request was made in a letter dated June 2, one of several messages that Guzmán has reportedly sent to Sheinbaum in recent months in an effort to secure his repatriation. In the letter, he expresses hope that the Mexican government can support the efforts of his legal team.

Written in English and by hand, the letter asks that he be allowed to complete his sentence in Mexico, arguing that such a transfer would enable him to receive visits from family members more easily.

Guzmán is currently being held at the United States Penitentiary Administrative Maximum Facility in Florence, Colorado, commonly known as the “Alcatraz of the Rockies,” one of the most secure prisons in the United States.

As in previous communications, the former cartel leader complained about his prison conditions, stating that he remains in near-total isolation and has little to no contact with other inmates.

He also reiterated his long-standing claim that he did not receive a fair trial in the United States and argued that the Mexican government bears responsibility for much of the violence associated with organized crime in the country.

In the letter, Guzmán maintains that his actions were motivated by a desire to protect himself and his family amid the violence linked to criminal organizations in Mexico.

Mexican authorities have not publicly indicated whether they plan to respond to the request. Guzmán remains one of the most notorious figures in the history of international drug trafficking and is serving his sentence under some of the strictest security measures in the U.S. prison system.

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