International
Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business
| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa
Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.
The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.
Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.
He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.
His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.
Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.
He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.
Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.
Into the shark tank
Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.
Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.
Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”
Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.
“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.
“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”
Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.
But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.
Markets watching
Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.
“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.
Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.
Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.
Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.
Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.
COP27 stage
Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.
The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.
In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.
Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”
International
Iranian leader warns foreign powers have “no place” in Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said Thursday that the Persian Gulf is entering a new era marked by a “bright” future without the presence of the United States in the region.
His remarks came during the commemoration of Persian Gulf Day, amid ongoing regional tensions following recent military confrontations involving Iran, the United States, and Israel.
“Today, two months after the largest military buildup and aggression by the bullies of the world in the region and the humiliating defeat of the United States, a new chapter is being written for the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz,” Khamenei stated.
The Iranian leader insisted that the future of the region would be free from American influence and focused instead on the internal development and prosperity of Gulf nations.
“By the power and strength of God, the bright future of the Persian Gulf region will be a future without the United States and dedicated to the progress, welfare, and prosperity of its nations,” he said.
Khamenei also questioned the effectiveness of U.S. military bases in the region, arguing that they do not provide security even for Washington’s allies.
“Foreigners who come from thousands of miles away and commit evil and malicious acts have no place there except at the bottom of its waters,” he declared.
In addition, the Iranian leader defended new measures being prepared by Tehran to regulate maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including fees for vessels passing through the strategic waterway. According to Khamenei, the policies would generate economic benefits and greater stability for the region.
Regional tensions remain high following the conflict that erupted on February 28 between the United States and Israel against Iran, leading to strategic blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, a route through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply previously passed. The situation has disrupted maritime trade and contributed to rising global oil prices.
Central America
U.S. and Regional Allies Back Panama Amid Dispute With China
The United States, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Guyana, Paraguay and Trinidad and Tobago issued a joint statement in support of Panama’s sovereignty, arguing that China’s recent actions represent an attempt to politicize maritime trade and undermine the sovereignty of nations in the hemisphere.
“We are closely monitoring China’s selective economic pressure and recent actions affecting vessels flying the Panamanian flag,” the statement released Tuesday said. “Panama is a pillar of our maritime trading system and, as such, must remain free from undue external pressure.”
The statement comes amid growing tensions surrounding the Panama Canal and the operation of key ports linked to global trade.
At the end of January, Panama’s Supreme Court invalidated the legal framework supporting the 1997 concession that granted Panama Ports Company, a subsidiary of CK Hutchison, the right to operate the Balboa and Cristóbal terminals located on the Pacific and Atlantic entrances of the Panama Canal.
The ruling followed mounting pressure from the United States to curb Chinese influence around the strategic waterway, through which roughly 5% of global maritime trade passes.
CK Hutchison, which managed the ports for nearly three decades, rejected the court’s decision and accused Panamanian authorities of illegally confiscating its assets. The company has launched international arbitration proceedings against Panama, seeking more than $2 billion in damages.
Following the court ruling, reports emerged of increased detentions and inspections of Panamanian-flagged vessels in China, actions widely viewed as retaliatory measures.
On Wednesday, China’s Foreign Ministry dismissed the joint statement as “completely unfounded and misleading,” accusing the United States of politicizing port operations and warning that Beijing would take steps to protect its interests in Panama.
International
King Charles III Says U.S.-UK Alliance Is “Irreplaceable and Unbreakable”
King Charles III of the United Kingdom reaffirmed the strength of the British-American relationship on Tuesday during a speech before the United States Congress, describing the alliance between the two nations as “irreplaceable and unbreakable.”
The address, delivered at the Capitol, marked the first speech by a British monarch before Congress since Queen Elizabeth II in 1991 and comes at a time of political tensions between Donald Trump’s administration and the Labour government of Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
“As President Trump himself observed during his state visit to Britain last autumn, the bond of kinship and identity between the United States and the United Kingdom is invaluable and eternal. It is irreplaceable and unbreakable,” the king said.
While reflecting on the upcoming 250th anniversary of U.S. independence, which will be commemorated this year, Charles III stated that the partnership between the two countries “was born out of disagreement, but is no less strong because of it.”
The monarch emphasized the democratic values shared by both nations and noted that major global changes have occurred whenever the two allies found common ground.
“When we have found that way to agree, great changes have taken place not only for the benefit of our peoples, but for all peoples,” he said.
King Charles also quoted British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who recently described the relationship as “an indispensable alliance.”
Concluding his speech, the monarch described the shared history of the United States and the United Kingdom as “a story of reconciliation, renewal, and an extraordinary partnership.”
He added that Washington and London have forged “one of the most consequential alliances in human history.”
“I pray with all my heart that our alliance continues to defend our shared values, together with our partners in Europe, the Commonwealth, and around the world, and that we ignore calls urging us to become increasingly isolationist,” Charles III stated.
The king ended by urging both nations to “recommit to one another in selfless service to our peoples and to all peoples of the world.”
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