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Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

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His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

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Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

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Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

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Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

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In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

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International

Chuck Schumer Unveils Proposal to Strengthen Oversight of the U.S. Presidency

U.S. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer on Thursday announced legislation to establish a federal anti-corruption office aimed at strengthening oversight of the executive branch and preventing future presidents from using the White House for personal financial gain.

Schumer said the proposal was prompted by what he described as President Donald Trump’s misuse of the presidencyto benefit his family’s business interests.

“In just 18 months, the Trump family has made more than $4 billion by exploiting the influence of the presidency,” Schumer alleged.

The New York senator also argued that the alleged corruption has had direct economic consequences for American households.

“The same corrupt practices Trump is using to pocket billions of dollars are also forcing Americans to pay, on average, $3,100 more each year because of the rising cost of living,” he said.

The legislation was introduced alongside Democratic Senators Alex Padilla, Jeff Merkley, and Andy Kim.

According to Schumer, the bill has two primary objectives: “First, to return money to the American people. Second, to ensure that no one can ever steal from them again.”

He added that the proposal would create legal mechanisms allowing citizens to seek the recovery of funds allegedly obtained through government corruption.

“The fact that Trump stole money from the American people does not make it his. Americans deserve to get that money back,” Schumer said.

Under the proposed legislation, any U.S. citizen—as well as state attorneys general acting on behalf of their residents—would be authorized to file civil lawsuits to recover funds allegedly acquired through corrupt practices by public officials.

“Our bill would empower any individual, including a state attorney general acting on behalf of the people of that state, to bring legal action to recover money stolen from the public through government corruption,” Schumer said.

The measure is expected to face debate in Congress, where Republicans and Democrats remain deeply divided over executive accountability and the scope of presidential powers.

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International

Trump Administration Urges Latin America to Increase Defense Spending Against Organized Crime

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday urged Latin American countries to increase investment in defense and security to strengthen the fight against organized crime and drug trafficking networks.

The appeal was made by Elbridge Colby, the U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, in an article published by Americas Quarterly. Colby argued that governments across the region should assume greater responsibility for protecting their territories from transnational criminal organizations.

“It is essential that our neighbors in the region invest more in their own defense and security. There is no reason why any country, especially those facing significant narco-terrorist threats, should spend so little on defense,” Colby wrote.

The Pentagon official described it as “absurd” that some Latin American nations allocate less than 1% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to defense, although he did not identify the countries. He contrasted that with NATO members in Europe, many of which are increasing defense expenditures to 3.5% of GDP, with an additional 1.5% devoted to security-related investments.

Colby, who participated earlier this month in the Conference of Defense Ministers of the Americas in Cusco, Peru, said there is “a historic opportunity” for the United States and its regional partners to strengthen cooperation against drug trafficking and other transnational threats.

He also defended the proposed Shield of the Americas, a military partnership promoted by the Trump administration to combat organized crime and supported by several conservative governments in the region. The initiative does not include Brazil or Mexico.

In addition, Colby said the administration’s security strategy includes an updated interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine, the long-standing U.S. foreign policy principle that historically viewed Latin America as part of Washington’s sphere of influence.

“Of course, we recognize that the Monroe Doctrine is controversial in many circles. But it is also frequently misunderstood,” he said.

According to Colby, the United States is not seeking “exploitation, subordination or dependence,” but rather a region characterized by greater prosperity, stability and security.

He also stated that Washington is prepared to use “all available resources,” including the U.S. Armed Forces, to combat drug trafficking and irregular migration. Colby highlighted ongoing counternarcotics operations in the Caribbean, despite criticism from human rights organizations that have questioned some missions over allegations of extrajudicial killings in international waters.

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International

FAO and WFP Seek $42 Million to Prepare Southern Africa for Unprecedented El Niño

WHO warns of El Niño impacts in Latin America

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) on Thursday appealed for $42 million to help vulnerable communities in southern Africa prepare for what is expected to be an unprecedented El Niño event.

The funding will enable humanitarian agencies to protect millions of people before worsening weather conditions severely affect agricultural production across the region.

Following a meeting with partners in Maputo, Mozambique, the two UN agencies said they still need to secure $42 million of the $54 million required to assist 2.3 million people in Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe.

In a joint statement, FAO and WFP said the appeal marks the first time the two organizations have launched a large-scale, forward-looking call for anticipatory action, warning that insufficient funding could push the region’s most vulnerable families into a major food security crisis.

“The period before the main planting season is critical for taking action,” said José Luis Fernández, FAO Representative in Mozambique. He stressed that early intervention is both more effective and less costly than responding after crops have failed and productive assets have already been lost.

“With timely and flexible financing, we can help farmers access appropriate seeds and agricultural inputs, protect livestock and water resources, and sustain food production before reduced rainfall causes irreversible damage,” Fernández said.

Claire Conan, WFP Representative in Mozambique, emphasized that acting before disasters strike is more efficient and cost-effective than responding after communities have lost their livelihoods. She added that the agency is working closely with the Mozambican government to translate climate forecasts into preventive measures aimed at reducing the impact of droughts and floods.

The planned interventions include supporting farmers, strengthening food production systems and protecting the food security of the region’s most vulnerable households, with the goal of reducing the risk of widespread hunger.

El Niño is a recurring climate phenomenon characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and changes in atmospheric circulation, disrupting weather patterns around the world. Its most recent episode, between 2023 and 2024, was associated with record global temperatures, severe droughts across southern Africa, Central America and northern South America, as well as destructive wildfires, torrential rainfall and widespread flooding.

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