International

Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business

Photo: Carl de Souza / AFP

| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa

Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.

The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.

Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.

He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.

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His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.

Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.

He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.

Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.

Into the shark tank

Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.

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Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.

Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”

Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.

“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.

“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”

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Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.

But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.

Markets watching

Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.

“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.

Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.

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Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.

Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.

Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.

COP27 stage

Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.

The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.

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In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.

Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”

International

Spain’s irregular migrant population rises to 840,000, study finds

The number of migrants living in Spain without legal residency status continues to rise and has reached 840,000 people, with 91% originating from the Americas, particularly Colombia, Peru and Honduras, according to a report by the Spanish think tank Funcas (Foundation of the Savings Banks).

An estimated 17.2% of the non-EU foreign population living in Spain is in an irregular administrative situation. The estimate is based on the gap between the number of foreign residents effectively living in Spain, according to the National Statistics Institute (INE), and those who hold a residence permit, benefit from international protection, or are in the process of obtaining it.

The data, as of January 1, 2025, point to a notable and sustained increase in irregular migration since 2017, when the estimated figure stood at around 107,000 people, representing 4.2% of the non-EU population residing in Spain.

By origin, migrants from the American continent stand out, totaling around 760,000 people, or 91% of all irregular migrants. Colombians account for nearly 290,000, followed by Peruvians with almost 110,000, and Hondurans with about 90,000. Migrants from Africa (50,000), Asia (15,000) and Europe (14,000) trail far behind.

The figures predate Spain’s latest immigration regulation reform, which came into force in May 2025 and introduces measures to ease access to legal status through residency ties. According to Funcas, the reform would, in principle, tend to reduce the number of migrants in an irregular situation.

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International

Historic snowstorm paralyzes Toronto after 60 centimeters of snow

Toronto, Canada’s largest city and the fourth most populous in North America, was largely paralyzed on Monday after a historic snowstorm dumped up to 60 centimeters of snow and sent temperatures plunging to -15 degrees Celsius, authorities said.

Late Sunday, as the scale of the snowfall became clear, city officials declared a climate emergency, triggering extraordinary measures including parking bans on several major streets to facilitate snow removal operations.

Toronto’s public transit authority reported that while some buses remain immobilized, subway and streetcar services are operating with relative normality, though localized disruptions may occur.

A similar situation is affecting the city’s commuter rail network, which remains operational but is experiencing significant delays on its main routes due to the severe weather conditions.

International

Venezuela frees at least 80 political prisoners, NGO says

At least 80 political prisoners were released on Sunday across Venezuela, human rights group Foro Penal reported, as the broader process of detainee releases continues at a slow pace under the interim government.

Foro Penal’s director, Alfredo Romero, wrote on social media platform X that verified releases took place nationwide and that the figure could rise as more confirmations are completed.

Attorney Gonzalo Himiob, also from Foro Penal, said the excarcelations occurred during the early hours of the day and emphasized that the number is not yet final pending further verification.

The releases are part of a series of steps announced by Venezuela’s interim leader, Delcy Rodríguez, who took power after the capture of former President Nicolás Maduro in a U.S. military operation on Jan. 3, 2026. Rodríguez has pledged a significant number of liberations but has been criticized by opposition groups and rights organizations for the slow and nontransparent nature of the process.

So far, the Venezuelan government reports that 626 detainees have been freed since December, though independent counts by human rights groups suggest the number of actual political prisoner releases is lower and that many remain behind bars.

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Families of those still detained have maintained vigils outside prisons, hopeful for further releases even as broader concerns about political imprisonment and due process persist.