International
Brazil runoff: 3 key factors
| By AFP | Héctor Velasco |
Charisma and campaign strategy won’t be the only things in play when Brazil’s far-right President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist challenger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva face off in a polarizing runoff election Sunday.
Here are three key factors analysts say will determine the outcome.
Rejection
Millions of Brazilians hate Bolsonaro, Lula or both — and that rejection vote will play a decisive role, analysts say.
Four years ago, Bolsonaro ran as an outsider, tapping widespread outrage with an economic crisis and massive corruption scandals under the Workers’ Party (PT), which governed Brazil for 13 years — first under Lula (2003-2010), then Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016), who was ultimately impeached.
Now, with Brazil deeply divided over Bolsonaro’s hardline conservatism, Covid-19 denialism and vitriolic style, the former army captain has plenty of haters of his own.
“Brazilian politics has two negationist forces: ‘anti-PTism’ and ‘anti-Bolsonarism.’ And that will decide the election,” says Mayra Goulart, a political scientist at Rio de Janeiro Federal University.
Turnout
Around 32 million Brazilians didn’t vote in the first-round election on October 2 — more than five times the six million votes that separated Lula (48 percent) from Bolsonaro (43 percent).
“Turnout will be key” in the runoff, says political scientist Oliver Stuenkel of the Getulio Vargas Foundation.
Poor voters, a group that leans heavily toward Lula, are particularly susceptible to stay home, especially if they lack transportation.
In theory, voting is mandatory in Brazil. But the fine for failing to comply — 3.5 reais, or a little more than 50 US cents — costs less than round-trip bus fare.
“The more voters stay home, the worse it will be for Lula,” says Stuenkel.
It’s the economy, stupid?
Latin America’s biggest economy is crawling slowly out of its pandemic hole.
Unemployment has fallen from a pandemic high of 14.5 percent to 8.7 percent last quarter, and economic growth is expected to come in at 2.8 percent this year.
But 9.5 million workers are unemployed, 33 million people are living in hunger, and prices remain painfully high for most — though inflation has started to fall.
“The economy, high inflation… unemployment exacerbated by the pandemic, all contributed to many families’ dismay” with Bolsonaro, says sociologist Paulo Baia.
Lula, who is remembered for an economic boom and social programs that helped lift 30 million people from poverty, is leaning heavily on that legacy.
Bolsonaro is meanwhile counting on jacked-up welfare payments to the poor, fuel-price cuts and tentative signs of better times ahead to win over voters.
Ultimately, the economy may not be the decisive issue, though.
Stuenkel says it could be eclipsed by Brazil’s culture wars and favorite Bolsonaro themes like “family, Christianity and tradition.”
“If (Lula) wins, that will show voters’ main concern is the economy,” he says.
“If Bolsonaro wins, it will show social conservatism is seen as the most important issue.”
International
Trump floats Vance-Rubio potential Republican ticket for 2028 election
U.S. President Donald Trump suggested on Monday that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubiocould potentially form a Republican presidential ticket for the 2028 elections.
Speaking during a dinner with law enforcement officials as part of National Police Week, Trump publicly praised both officials and said they could make “an ideal team” for the next presidential race.
“Who likes JD Vance? Who likes Marco Rubio?” Trump asked attendees before adding that the pair “sound like a good combination.”
The president highlighted his vice president’s performance in office, stating that their current partnership has been highly effective. “JD is perfect, that has been a perfect formula,” Trump told reporters later.
He further suggested that a Vance-Rubio pairing could represent a strong presidential and vice-presidential ticket, although he stopped short of offering any formal endorsement.
“I think it sounds like a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate,” he said, while clarifying that his remarks should not be interpreted as an official backing of any future campaign.
So far, neither Vance nor Rubio has publicly confirmed any intention to run in the 2028 presidential election.
Rubio previously sought the Republican nomination in 2016 but withdrew after losing the primary race to Trump. Later, in a December 2025 interview with Vanity Fair, he said he would be among the first to support Vance if he decided to run for the White House.
Vance, meanwhile, has recently dismissed speculation of any political rivalry with Rubio amid growing discussion about potential future GOP leadership.
International
Russia Accuses Ukraine of Violating Victory Day Truce
Russia accused Ukraine on Saturday of violating a Victory Day truce that was reportedly agreed with mediation from the United States, claiming that Ukrainian forces carried out attacks on Russian territory as well as on the annexed Crimean peninsula.
Despite the declared ceasefire, the Russian Ministry of Defense said in a statement that Ukrainian forces attacked Russian military positions using attack drones and artillery.
According to the ministry, Ukrainian forces made twelve attempts to advance toward Russian-held positions across several sectors of the front line.
It also alleged that Ukrainian strikes targeted civilian infrastructure in Crimea, several border regions, the Caucasus, and other areas including Moscow and Perm in the Ural region.
The Defense Ministry estimated around 8,900 violations of the ceasefire in total, including more than 7,000 drone attacks and over 1,000 strikes involving tanks, artillery, multiple rocket launch systems, and mortars since the truce came into effect at midnight.
Russia said its forces responded “symmetrically” to what it described as violations by Ukrainian troops.
Earlier, the Kremlin denied claims that Ukraine attempted to sabotage a military parade in Red Square marking the 81st anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.
“No attempts were made. Everything went well,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told local media.
International
Trump Says U.S.-Iran Talks Progressing, Signals Possible Deal on Strait of Hormuz
U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that Washington is holding “very good” talks with Iran and stated that there is a strong possibility of reaching an agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
“We’ve had very good conversations over the last 44 hours, and it’s very possible that we’ll reach an agreement,” Trump said during an event held in the Oval Office at the White House.
The president’s remarks came just hours after he announced a temporary suspension of the military operation aimed at escorting vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf due to Iran’s blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Trump explained that the pause in operations is intended to facilitate diplomatic negotiations between both sides and prevent further military escalation in the region.
“We’re in good shape, and right now things are going well. Now we have to achieve what we need to achieve. If we don’t, we’ll have to go much further,” the Republican president warned.
In a post published on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump reiterated that if Iran accepts Washington’s proposed conditions, military operations and the naval blockade affecting the Islamic republic would come to an end.
However, he also issued a new warning to the Iranian government, stating that the United States would respond with attacks “of greater intensity” if Tehran rejects the agreement promoted by the White House.
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