International
What could happen if Putin used nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
AFP | by Sylvie LANTEAUME and Paul HANDLEY
President Vladimir Putin’s threat to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine if Russian “territorial integrity” is threatened has sparked deep discussion in the West as to how it would respond.
“Those who are trying to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the wind can also turn in their direction,” Putin said, adding: “This is not a bluff.”
However analysts aren’t convinced the Russian president is willing to be the first to unleash nuclear weapons since the US bombed Japan in 1945.
AFP spoke with several experts and officials about the possible scenarios that could arise should Russia carry out a nuclear attack.
What would a Russian nuclear attack look like?
Analysts say Moscow would likely deploy one or more “tactical” or battlefield nuclear bombs.
These are small weapons, ranging from 0.3 kilotons to 100 kilotons of explosive power, compared to the 1.2 megatons of the largest US strategic warhead or the 58 megaton bomb Russia tested in 1961.
Tactical bombs are designed to have a limited impact on the battlefield, compared to strategic nuclear weapons which are designed to fight and win all-out wars.
But “small” and “limited” are relative: The atom bomb the US dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 to devastating effect was just 15 kilotons.
What would Moscow target?
Analysts say Russia’s goal in using a tactical nuclear bomb in Ukraine would be to frighten it into surrender or submission to negotiations, and to divide the country’s Western backers.
Mark Cancian, a military expert with the CSIS International Security Program in Washington, said Russia would not likely use nuclear weapons on the front lines.
Capturing 20 miles (32 kilometers) of territory could require 20 small nuclear bombs — small gains for the huge risks of introducing nuclear weapons and nuclear fallout.
“Just using one will not be enough,” Cancian said.
Moscow could instead send a strong message and avoid significant casualties by detonating a nuclear bomb over water, or exploding one high over Ukraine to generate an electromagnetic pulse that would knock out electronic equipment.
Or Putin could opt for greater destruction and death: attacking a Ukraine military base, or hitting an urban center like Kyiv, generating mass casualties and possibly killing the country’s political leadership.
Such scenarios “would likely be designed to split the NATO alliance and global consensus against Putin,” Jon Wolfsthal, a former white House nuclear policy expert, wrote Friday on Substack.
But “it is unclear if it would succeed, and could just as easily be seen as desperation as resolve,” he said.
Should the West respond with nukes?
The West has remained ambiguous on how it would respond to a tactical nuclear strike, and the choices are complicated.
The United States and NATO do not want to appear weak in front of an implicit nuclear threat.
But they also would want to avoid the possibility that the war in Ukraine — not a NATO member — could escalate into a much broader, devastating global nuclear war.
Experts say the West would have no option but to respond, and that a response should come from NATO as a group, rather than the United States alone.
Any response should “ensure both that Putin’s military situation did not improve from such a strike, and that his political, economic and personal position suffered as a result,” said Wolfsthal.
The United States has positioned about 100 of its own tactical nuclear weapons in NATO countries and could respond in kind against Russian forces.
That would demonstrate resolve and remind Moscow of the danger of its actions, according to Matthew Kroenig of the Atlantic Council.
However, he said, “it might also provoke a Russian nuclear reprisal, raising the risk of a larger nuclear exchange and further humanitarian disaster.”
Another risk is that some NATO members might reject a nuclear response, serving Putin’s aims of weakening the alliance.
Give Ukraine the ability to attack Russia?
Answering a Russian nuclear attack in a more conventional military or diplomatic way, and supplying Ukraine with more lethal arms to attack Russia, could be more effective, experts say.
“Russian nuclear use might provide an opening to convince countries that have so far been reluctant — such as India and possibly even China — to participate in escalating sanctions,” said Kroenig.
In addition, the United States could offer Ukraine NATO aircraft, Patriot and THAAD anti-missile batteries, and ATACMS long-range missiles that could be used by Ukraine forces to strike deep inside Russia.
“Whatever restrictions we have on Ukraine forces — and I think we have some restrictions — I think we take all of those off,” said Cancian.
International
Kristi Noem credits Trump for mass migrant deportations by mexican president
U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem claimed that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has deported “more than half a million” migrants due to pressure from former President Donald Trump.
During a cabinet meeting highlighting the “achievements” of Trump’s administration in its first 100 days, Noem asserted that under the Republican leader’s influence, “Mexico has finally come to the table” to negotiate on migration and fentanyl trafficking.
“The president of Mexico told me she has returned just over half a million people before they reached our border,” Noem stated, criticizing media reports that suggest the Biden administration deported more migrants than Trump’s.
“I wish those deportations were counted,” Noem added, “because those people never made it to our border—she sent them back because you made her.” She went on to thank Trump: “They never made it here because they got the message—because you were so aggressive.”
Noem has made controversial claims about Sheinbaum in the past, prompting the Mexican leader to refute them.
On April 1, Sheinbaum responded to one such statement by declaring, “The president answers to only one authority, and that is the people of Mexico,” after Noem said on Fox News that she gave Sheinbaum “a list of things Trump would like to see” and that Mexico’s actions would determine whether Trump granted tariff relief.
International
Vatican releases special “Sede Vacante” stamps ahead of papal transition
he Vatican’s post offices and select collector shops began selling special edition stamps this week to mark the period between the death of Pope Francis and the election of his successor.
Known as “Sede Vacante” stamps, they feature an image used on official Vatican documents during the interregnum between popes — two crossed keys without the papal tiara. These stamps went on sale Monday and will remain valid for postal use only until the new pontiff appears at the window overlooking St. Peter’s Square.
Until then, they can be used to send letters, postcards, and parcels. “Once the new pope is elected, the stamps lose their postal validity, but their collectible value rises,” said Francesco Santarossa, who runs a collectors’ shop across from St. Peter’s Square.
The Vatican has issued the stamps in four denominations: €1.25, €1.30, €2.45, and €3.20. Each is inscribed with “Città del Vaticano” and “Sede Vacante MMXXV” — Latin for “Vacant See 2025.”
International
Conclave to choose pope Francis’ successor could begin in early may
The conclave, which in the coming weeks must choose the successor to Pope Francis, will strictly follow a precise protocol refined over centuries.
The 135 cardinal electors, all under the age of 80, will cast their votes four times a day — except on the first day — until one candidate secures a two-thirds majority. The result will be announced to the world through the burning of the ballots with a chemical that produces the eagerly awaited white smoke, accompanied by the traditional cry of “Habemus Papam.”
The start date for the conclave could be announced today, as the cardinals are set to hold their fifth meeting since the pope’s passing. Luxembourg Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich suggested it could begin on May 5 or 6, following the traditional nine days of mourning. According to German Cardinal Reinhard Marx, the conclave could last only “a few days.”
Although the late Argentine pontiff appointed the majority of the cardinal electors, this does not necessarily ensure the selection of a like-minded successor. Francis’ leadership style differed significantly from that of his predecessor, Benedict XVI, a German theologian who was less fond of large public gatherings. It also marked a contrast with the popular Polish pope, John Paul II.
The Argentine Jesuit’s reformist papacy drew strong criticism from more conservative sectors of the Church, who are hoping for a doctrinally focused shift. His tenure was marked by efforts to combat clerical sexual abuse, elevate the role of women and laypeople, and advocate for the poor and migrants, among other causes.
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