International
What could happen if Putin used nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
AFP | by Sylvie LANTEAUME and Paul HANDLEY
President Vladimir Putin’s threat to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine if Russian “territorial integrity” is threatened has sparked deep discussion in the West as to how it would respond.
“Those who are trying to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the wind can also turn in their direction,” Putin said, adding: “This is not a bluff.”
However analysts aren’t convinced the Russian president is willing to be the first to unleash nuclear weapons since the US bombed Japan in 1945.
AFP spoke with several experts and officials about the possible scenarios that could arise should Russia carry out a nuclear attack.
What would a Russian nuclear attack look like?
Analysts say Moscow would likely deploy one or more “tactical” or battlefield nuclear bombs.
These are small weapons, ranging from 0.3 kilotons to 100 kilotons of explosive power, compared to the 1.2 megatons of the largest US strategic warhead or the 58 megaton bomb Russia tested in 1961.
Tactical bombs are designed to have a limited impact on the battlefield, compared to strategic nuclear weapons which are designed to fight and win all-out wars.
But “small” and “limited” are relative: The atom bomb the US dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 to devastating effect was just 15 kilotons.
What would Moscow target?
Analysts say Russia’s goal in using a tactical nuclear bomb in Ukraine would be to frighten it into surrender or submission to negotiations, and to divide the country’s Western backers.
Mark Cancian, a military expert with the CSIS International Security Program in Washington, said Russia would not likely use nuclear weapons on the front lines.
Capturing 20 miles (32 kilometers) of territory could require 20 small nuclear bombs — small gains for the huge risks of introducing nuclear weapons and nuclear fallout.
“Just using one will not be enough,” Cancian said.
Moscow could instead send a strong message and avoid significant casualties by detonating a nuclear bomb over water, or exploding one high over Ukraine to generate an electromagnetic pulse that would knock out electronic equipment.
Or Putin could opt for greater destruction and death: attacking a Ukraine military base, or hitting an urban center like Kyiv, generating mass casualties and possibly killing the country’s political leadership.
Such scenarios “would likely be designed to split the NATO alliance and global consensus against Putin,” Jon Wolfsthal, a former white House nuclear policy expert, wrote Friday on Substack.
But “it is unclear if it would succeed, and could just as easily be seen as desperation as resolve,” he said.
Should the West respond with nukes?
The West has remained ambiguous on how it would respond to a tactical nuclear strike, and the choices are complicated.
The United States and NATO do not want to appear weak in front of an implicit nuclear threat.
But they also would want to avoid the possibility that the war in Ukraine — not a NATO member — could escalate into a much broader, devastating global nuclear war.
Experts say the West would have no option but to respond, and that a response should come from NATO as a group, rather than the United States alone.
Any response should “ensure both that Putin’s military situation did not improve from such a strike, and that his political, economic and personal position suffered as a result,” said Wolfsthal.
The United States has positioned about 100 of its own tactical nuclear weapons in NATO countries and could respond in kind against Russian forces.
That would demonstrate resolve and remind Moscow of the danger of its actions, according to Matthew Kroenig of the Atlantic Council.
However, he said, “it might also provoke a Russian nuclear reprisal, raising the risk of a larger nuclear exchange and further humanitarian disaster.”
Another risk is that some NATO members might reject a nuclear response, serving Putin’s aims of weakening the alliance.
Give Ukraine the ability to attack Russia?
Answering a Russian nuclear attack in a more conventional military or diplomatic way, and supplying Ukraine with more lethal arms to attack Russia, could be more effective, experts say.
“Russian nuclear use might provide an opening to convince countries that have so far been reluctant — such as India and possibly even China — to participate in escalating sanctions,” said Kroenig.
In addition, the United States could offer Ukraine NATO aircraft, Patriot and THAAD anti-missile batteries, and ATACMS long-range missiles that could be used by Ukraine forces to strike deep inside Russia.
“Whatever restrictions we have on Ukraine forces — and I think we have some restrictions — I think we take all of those off,” said Cancian.
International
Putin calls U.S.-Russia summit a “mistake” without guaranteed results
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on Wednesday that holding a summit with U.S. President Donald Trump would be a “mistake” without certainty of concrete results, following the cancellation of the planned meeting in Budapest.
“Without a doubt, such a meeting must be well-prepared. For me and the U.S. president, it would be a mistake to treat it lightly and come out of that meeting without the expected outcome,” Putin told local media from the Kremlin.
The Russian leader said the initiative for the summit came from the U.S. side and that he had accepted the proposal. “In our last phone conversation, both the meeting and its location were proposed by the U.S. side. I agreed,” he said.
Putin added that Moscow continues to support dialogue, even in the current context. However, he admitted uncertainty about whether a meeting with Trump could take place later. “Now I see that, in his statement, the U.S. president has decided to cancel or postpone the meeting. Most likely, it is a postponement, since dialogue is always better than confrontation, disputes, or especially war,” he emphasized.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova reaffirmed that Moscow does not consider a resolution to the conflict in Ukraine that does not meet its original demands. “We see no alternative other than achieving the objectives of the special military operation,” Zakharova stated.
Among the conditions Russia has set for resuming dialogue with Washington and other international actors are: ensuring Ukraine’s neutral and non-aligned status, its demilitarization, the removal of elements considered “Nazis,” full respect for the rights of Russian-speaking populations, and unrestricted operation of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church.
International
Colombia ready to replace suspended U.S. support, President Petro asserts
Colombian President Gustavo Petro downplayed on Thursday the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend all economic aid to the country, asserting that the measure “changes nothing” structurally, although he acknowledged potential effects on military resources.
“What happens if they take away our aid? In my opinion, nothing (…) I have never seen a single dollar of aid in Colombia’s budget,” Petro said during a press conference at the Casa de Nariño, a day after Trump publicly announced the suspension of all payments and subsidies to Colombia.
The Colombian leader explained that U.S. funds are not allocated directly to the government but rather to organizations linked to the now-defunct USAID. “U.S. aid is not for the government; it is for the NGOs managed by USAID, that is, for themselves,” he argued.
Petro also questioned the effectiveness of this cooperation, stating that Washington’s decades-long anti-drug strategy has failed by focusing on forced eradication of illicit crops, which, according to him, has perpetuated violence in Colombia. “They have condemned us to violence,” he asserted.
Although he acknowledged that the suspension could create difficulties in the military sector—such as the withdrawal of combat helicopters and limitations in arms supply—he assured that his government is prepared to replace that support with the national budget. “Colombia buys its own weapons,” he emphasized.
International
Cristina Fernández calls Argentina’s legislative elections “decisive” to stop Milei
Former Argentine President Cristina Fernández (2007–2015) described this Thursday as “decisive” the legislative elections taking place this Sunday in Argentina, urging voters to support Peronism as a way to put a “brake” on Javier Milei’s government.
“The brake on Milei starts this Sunday, but the work continues the next day to think about how to get Argentina out of the disaster this government will leave. This October 26 is Milei and permanent austerity, or Argentina, our common home,” Fernández said in a recorded message from her Buenos Aires residence, where she is serving a six-year prison sentence for irregularities in the awarding of road construction contracts during her presidency.
Fernández emphasized that the elections are not only about choosing deputies and senators but also represent “a great democratic opportunity” to “set limits on Milei’s mismanagement.”
“The libertarian experiment has failed, and everyone knows it. People cannot make ends meet, they have to go into debt to pay for electricity, buy food, or medicine,” she added.
The former president also criticized the government for changing the voting system “without proper training, putting transparency at risk,” referring to the introduction of the Single Paper Ballot, which lists all candidates, offices, and political parties on a single sheet.
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