International
What could happen if Putin used nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
AFP | by Sylvie LANTEAUME and Paul HANDLEY
President Vladimir Putin’s threat to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine if Russian “territorial integrity” is threatened has sparked deep discussion in the West as to how it would respond.
“Those who are trying to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the wind can also turn in their direction,” Putin said, adding: “This is not a bluff.”
However analysts aren’t convinced the Russian president is willing to be the first to unleash nuclear weapons since the US bombed Japan in 1945.
AFP spoke with several experts and officials about the possible scenarios that could arise should Russia carry out a nuclear attack.
What would a Russian nuclear attack look like?
Analysts say Moscow would likely deploy one or more “tactical” or battlefield nuclear bombs.
These are small weapons, ranging from 0.3 kilotons to 100 kilotons of explosive power, compared to the 1.2 megatons of the largest US strategic warhead or the 58 megaton bomb Russia tested in 1961.
Tactical bombs are designed to have a limited impact on the battlefield, compared to strategic nuclear weapons which are designed to fight and win all-out wars.
But “small” and “limited” are relative: The atom bomb the US dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 to devastating effect was just 15 kilotons.
What would Moscow target?
Analysts say Russia’s goal in using a tactical nuclear bomb in Ukraine would be to frighten it into surrender or submission to negotiations, and to divide the country’s Western backers.
Mark Cancian, a military expert with the CSIS International Security Program in Washington, said Russia would not likely use nuclear weapons on the front lines.
Capturing 20 miles (32 kilometers) of territory could require 20 small nuclear bombs — small gains for the huge risks of introducing nuclear weapons and nuclear fallout.
“Just using one will not be enough,” Cancian said.
Moscow could instead send a strong message and avoid significant casualties by detonating a nuclear bomb over water, or exploding one high over Ukraine to generate an electromagnetic pulse that would knock out electronic equipment.
Or Putin could opt for greater destruction and death: attacking a Ukraine military base, or hitting an urban center like Kyiv, generating mass casualties and possibly killing the country’s political leadership.
Such scenarios “would likely be designed to split the NATO alliance and global consensus against Putin,” Jon Wolfsthal, a former white House nuclear policy expert, wrote Friday on Substack.
But “it is unclear if it would succeed, and could just as easily be seen as desperation as resolve,” he said.
Should the West respond with nukes?
The West has remained ambiguous on how it would respond to a tactical nuclear strike, and the choices are complicated.
The United States and NATO do not want to appear weak in front of an implicit nuclear threat.
But they also would want to avoid the possibility that the war in Ukraine — not a NATO member — could escalate into a much broader, devastating global nuclear war.
Experts say the West would have no option but to respond, and that a response should come from NATO as a group, rather than the United States alone.
Any response should “ensure both that Putin’s military situation did not improve from such a strike, and that his political, economic and personal position suffered as a result,” said Wolfsthal.
The United States has positioned about 100 of its own tactical nuclear weapons in NATO countries and could respond in kind against Russian forces.
That would demonstrate resolve and remind Moscow of the danger of its actions, according to Matthew Kroenig of the Atlantic Council.
However, he said, “it might also provoke a Russian nuclear reprisal, raising the risk of a larger nuclear exchange and further humanitarian disaster.”
Another risk is that some NATO members might reject a nuclear response, serving Putin’s aims of weakening the alliance.
Give Ukraine the ability to attack Russia?
Answering a Russian nuclear attack in a more conventional military or diplomatic way, and supplying Ukraine with more lethal arms to attack Russia, could be more effective, experts say.
“Russian nuclear use might provide an opening to convince countries that have so far been reluctant — such as India and possibly even China — to participate in escalating sanctions,” said Kroenig.
In addition, the United States could offer Ukraine NATO aircraft, Patriot and THAAD anti-missile batteries, and ATACMS long-range missiles that could be used by Ukraine forces to strike deep inside Russia.
“Whatever restrictions we have on Ukraine forces — and I think we have some restrictions — I think we take all of those off,” said Cancian.
International
China calls for dialogue amid rising Iran-Israel conflict
The Chinese government emphasized on Monday the importance of “creating the conditions to return to the proper path of dialogue” between Iran and Israel, which have exchanged attacks in recent days resulting in more than 20 Israeli and over 220 Iranian deaths.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun expressed deep concern at a press conference over the Israeli attacks on Iran and the “sudden escalation” of the military conflict.
Guo called on all parties to “take immediate measures to ease tensions and prevent the region from descending into further turmoil,” stating that “force cannot bring lasting peace.”
“If the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to intensify or even expand, the countries of the Middle East will be the first to suffer the consequences,” he added, while noting that China “will continue to maintain communication with the relevant parties, promoting peace and dialogue.”
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke last Saturday with his Iranian and Israeli counterparts to condemn the Israeli airstrike on Iranian territory, which he described as a “violation of international law” with the potential to trigger “disastrous” consequences.
In both calls, Wang reiterated China’s rejection of the use of force, defended diplomacy as the only solution to the Iranian nuclear dispute, and offered China’s mediation to prevent further destabilization in the Middle East.
International
Suspect arrested in killing of Minnesota legislator and husband, governor Says
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz announced on Sunday the arrest of Vance Luther Boelter, 57, the main suspect in the killing of Democratic legislator Melissa Hortman and her husband in a Brooklyn Park suburb on Friday night.
Boelter, who also reportedly shot State Senator John Hoffman and his wife early Saturday morning, was apprehended in Sibley County following an intensive manhunt involving hundreds of law enforcement officers.
In a public statement, Governor Walz condemned Boelter’s “unthinkable actions,” which resulted in the death of a woman who “shaped the core of who we are as a state.”
“We cannot become numb to this. We are a deeply divided nation,” Walz said in a statement posted on his X account.
“We move forward not with hatred or violence, but with humility, grace, and civility,” he added.
Expressing solidarity with the victims’ families, Walz said the entire state of Minnesota is in mourning. He also thanked law enforcement for their bravery and professionalism: “They have saved lives,” he emphasized.
“As we heal, we will not let fear win,” Walz concluded. “We must honor Melissa by moving forward with understanding, service, and above all, humanity.”
Throughout Sunday, police and sheriff units searched a rural area in Minnesota for Vance Luther Boelter, a security company director and preacher who, according to Governor Walz, acted out of politically motivated violence.
International
40,000 tourists stranded in Israel amid airspace shutdown over Iran conflict
Approximately 40,000 tourists are stranded in Israel following the closure of the country’s airspace amid escalating hostilities with Iran, the Israeli Ministry of Tourism reported on Monday.
The ministry has set up a virtual office to provide information via email (virtual@goisrael.gov.il) and phone (+972-53-583-5808), as well as a Facebook page called Israel Virtual Tourist Office.
Israeli Tourism Minister Haim Katz is in contact with hotels and accommodations across the country to offer support to tourists in need, the ministry added.
Many stranded travelers are considering crossing overland into Jordan or Egypt to seek flights from those countries. The Israel Airports Authority reminded the public that land border crossings remain open.
Three German tourists stranded in Jerusalem told EFE today that they have not received any assistance from their country’s embassy in Israel, and their primary option currently is to cross into Jordan to catch a flight from there.
Since early Friday morning, Israel launched operations against Iran, targeting military personnel and infrastructure, including energy and nuclear facilities, as well as numerous residential areas in Tehran.
In response, Iran has fired hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel, some of which have struck various locations across the country, leaving at least 24 dead so far, according to Israeli authorities.
Iranian health officials report at least 224 deaths, mostly civilians, including at least 17 senior military officials—nine from the Revolutionary Guard—and more than a dozen nuclear scientists.
The Israeli military has warned that many more “targets” remain, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declared on Monday that it will continue missile attacks against Israel until its “destruction.”
China calls for dialogue amid rising Iran-Israel conflict
Suspect arrested in killing of Minnesota legislator and husband, governor Says
40,000 tourists stranded in Israel amid airspace shutdown over Iran conflict
Tec de Monterrey honors one of its students for his contribution to nanotechnology in medicine
Defense Minister commends salvadoran soldier for Central American Cross Country victory
Extension of the state of emergency approved in southern Chile
-
International5 days agoOne survivor confirmed after Air India flight crashes with 242 on board
-
International5 days agoShark attacks child in Florida
-
International3 days agoChina shows at the UN its “condemnation” of Israel for the “violation of Iran’s sovereignty”
-
International5 days agoOver 200 dead after London-Bound plane crashes in India
-
International5 days agoUncle Sam used in DHS poster calling for public to report immigrants
-
International5 days agoAt least five others involved in attack on Miguel Uribe Turbay
-
International5 days agoHegseth dodges lawmakers’ questions on potential U.S. invasion plans for Greenland, Panama
-
International4 days agoICE under fire for detaining undocumented teen from Florida foster care
-
International5 days agoArgentine government says Cristina Fernández sentence was fair and free of political influence
-
Central America16 hours agoGuatemala cracks down on prison corruption with over 20 raids in recent weeks
-
International16 hours agoJudge to rule next week on injunction against Trump’s student visa restrictions
-
International3 days agoDonald Trump’s government pauses its program of indiscriminate raides against migrants
-
Central America1 day agoNicaraguan exile coalition urges Costa Rica to receive U.S. deportees fleeing Ortega regime
-
International16 hours agoChina calls for dialogue amid rising Iran-Israel conflict
-
International3 days agoTrump says he knew “everything” about the attack on Iran and assures that the dialogue remains open
-
International3 days agoRight and far right leaders aspire to win the next elections in Latin America
-
International4 days agoIsrael warns of retaliation after iranian missiles hit civilian areas
-
Central America1 day agoFirst woman elected president in the Americas, Violeta Chamorro, dead at 95
-
International5 days agoEight Killed in Gaza as Hamas allegedly attacks Israel-Backed aid group
-
International4 days agoCalifornia sues Trump over deployment of military forces in immigration arrests
-
International16 hours agoTrump directs ICE to focus deportation efforts on democratic-led states
-
International3 days agoMore than 2,000 protests in the US will condemn Donald Trump’s “authoritarianism” this Saturday
-
International16 hours agoSuspect arrested in killing of Minnesota legislator and husband, governor Says
-
International16 hours ago40,000 tourists stranded in Israel amid airspace shutdown over Iran conflict
-
International3 days agoCriticism of ICE in Florida for arresting a minor from Honduras and taking him away from a foster family
-
International16 hours ago
Israeli strike targets Iran’s state news agency amid escalating conflict
-
International16 hours agoNetanyahu: Israel is ‘changing the face of the Middle East’ amid Iran strikes