International
Trump gains ground over Harris and the elections are emerging as the closest of the century
The Republican candidate for the White House, former President Donald Trump, has gained ground in the polls of his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, and the selections of November 5 are emerging as the closest of the last century in the United States.
Harris’ candidacy, who replaced President Joe Biden after he threw in the towel in July, initially aroused great enthusiasm that was transferred to the polls, but Trump has managed to pulverize that advantage when there are 16 days left until the elections.
According to the latest forecast of the FiveThiryEight portal based on the average of polls published nationally and in key states, Trump achieves a slight advantage over Harris and has a 52% chance of winning the November 5 elections.
Despite the fact that the Democrat leads the intention to vote at the national level, the Republican is more favored by the Electoral College, the system by which the states grant a certain number of electoral votes to the winning candidate.
Two weeks ago, the forecast of the same portal gave Harris a 58% chance to defeat Trump.
The difference between Harris and Trump
Although the Republican has gained ground in recent weeks, the situation is so tight that the chances of victory of each of the two candidates are practically equivalent to throwing a coin into the air.
The difference between Harris and Trump is less than two percentage points in the seven decisive states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) so that a small statistical error could alter the result.
In addition, at the national level, the vice president only takes two points ahead of the former president, a narrower difference than the margin between Biden and Trump on any of the days of the 2020 campaign.
After those elections, the Republican refused to accept his defeat and promoted the vote count in some key states and several litigations that were dismissed in court.
In 2000, the election result was up in the air until the Supreme Court gave the victory to Republican George W. Busch on the Democrat Al Gore in Florida, which was then a hinge state.
But according to the FiveThirtyEight portal, to find elections as close as what the polls draw, we have to go back to 1876, when the Republican Rutherford Hayes beat the Democrat Samuel Tilden by a single electoral vote: 185 against 184.
Every vote counts
In such a tight scenario, every vote counts and the two candidates are doubling their presence in the seven decisive states, where in some cases the early vote has already begun with a high turnout.
The rhetoric and the crossfire between the two has also intensified with attacks and insults.
Trump suggested this week that he would be willing to deploy the military against the “internal enemies” of the United States, in an apparent reference to his political rivals, while Harris described his rival as “fascist” and “deranted.”
The vice president has decided to raise the tone against Trump in an attempt to revitalize her campaign, to which former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton have also joined, and former first lady Michelle Obama to give her a new impetus.
The Republican is this Sunday in Pennsylvania, where he is expected to visit a McDonald’s and accuse Harris of having invented that he worked for that fast food chain as a young man.
For her part, the Democratic candidate, who turns 60 today, is in Georgia before traveling to Pennsylvania, where tomorrow she will campaign with Liz Cheney, a former Republican congressman facing Trump.
International
Mexican government prioritizes 191 communities after deadly floods
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed on Wednesday that the death toll from recent rains and floods across several central states has risen to 66, while the federal government has activated air bridges and prioritized assistance in 191 isolated communities.
“Unfortunately, 66 people have died, and 75 remain missing,” the president said during her morning press conference. She added that the official death toll will be updated later in a new report.
As of Tuesday, authorities had reported 64 fatalities. Sheinbaum also announced the creation of a public information center to centralize official data on the deceased, missing persons, damaged homes, and cut-off communities.
According to the president, the number of missing persons has decreased thanks to coordination with state authorities.
“Through calls to phone line 079, 103 people who had been reported missing have now been located,” she explained.
Priority Municipalities
The president noted that the federal government has classified 191 communities as ‘priority’, a designation based mainly on the percentage of homes affected.
International
New road and bridge explosions raise alarm amid indigenous protests in Ecuador
Ecuadorian authorities are investigating two explosions that occurred early Wednesday, one on a road in the southern part of the country and another under a bridge in Guayas province. These incidents follow the car bomb explosion in the coastal city of Guayaquil, also in Guayas, which occurred the day before and left one person dead and 30 injured.
Press reports indicate that one person was injured and several vehicles were damaged in the explosion on the Cuenca-Girón-Pasaje road in the south.
“Besides yesterday’s explosion in Guayaquil, we have received reports of explosives placed on bridges along the Guayaquil-Machala and Machala-Cuenca routes to disrupt traffic,” said Roberto Luque, Minister of Infrastructure and Transport (MIT).
On his X social media account, Luque reported that authorities have been deployed to the sites to assess the damage and determine the current condition of the structures.
“What they haven’t achieved with their call for a strike, some are trying to achieve through terrorism,” he stated, referring to the 24 days of protests organized by the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities (Conaie) against rising diesel prices and other demands.
The protests, called at a national level, have Imbabura province as their epicenter. Roadblocks have also been reported in the northern part of Pichincha province, whose capital is Quito, while activities in the rest of the country continue normally.
International
Armed forces target illegal mines in Northern Ecuador with bombing raids
Ecuador’s Armed Forces carried out an operation on Monday — including airstrikes — against illegal mining in the town of Buenos Aires, in the country’s north, Defense Minister Gian Carlo Loffredo reported.
The mountainous, gold-rich area has been a hotspot for illegal mining since 2017, located in the Andean province of Imbabura.
In 2019, former president Lenín Moreno deployed around 2,400 soldiers to the region in an attempt to curb the illegal activity. “The operation began with mortar fire, followed by gunfire and bombing runs by Supertucano aircraft,” Loffredo said in a video released by the Defense Ministry.
He added that the operation would continue on Tuesday with patrols across the area to locate possible members of “irregular armed groups that may have crossed from the Colombian border.”
The Armed Forces stated on X that the intervention focused on the “complete elimination of multiple illegal mining tunnels” in the areas known as Mina Nueva and Mina Vieja.
The operation coincided with the deployment of a military and police convoy into Imbabura, which has been the epicenter of protests against President Daniel Noboa since September 22, following his decision to scrap the diesel subsidy.
Mexican government prioritizes 191 communities after deadly floods
New road and bridge explosions raise alarm amid indigenous protests in Ecuador
Armed forces target illegal mines in Northern Ecuador with bombing raids
Tec de Monterrey honors one of its students for his contribution to nanotechnology in medicine
Defense Minister commends salvadoran soldier for Central American Cross Country victory
Extension of the state of emergency approved in southern Chile
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