International
Trump gains ground over Harris and the elections are emerging as the closest of the century
The Republican candidate for the White House, former President Donald Trump, has gained ground in the polls of his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, and the selections of November 5 are emerging as the closest of the last century in the United States.
Harris’ candidacy, who replaced President Joe Biden after he threw in the towel in July, initially aroused great enthusiasm that was transferred to the polls, but Trump has managed to pulverize that advantage when there are 16 days left until the elections.
According to the latest forecast of the FiveThiryEight portal based on the average of polls published nationally and in key states, Trump achieves a slight advantage over Harris and has a 52% chance of winning the November 5 elections.
Despite the fact that the Democrat leads the intention to vote at the national level, the Republican is more favored by the Electoral College, the system by which the states grant a certain number of electoral votes to the winning candidate.
Two weeks ago, the forecast of the same portal gave Harris a 58% chance to defeat Trump.
The difference between Harris and Trump
Although the Republican has gained ground in recent weeks, the situation is so tight that the chances of victory of each of the two candidates are practically equivalent to throwing a coin into the air.
The difference between Harris and Trump is less than two percentage points in the seven decisive states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) so that a small statistical error could alter the result.
In addition, at the national level, the vice president only takes two points ahead of the former president, a narrower difference than the margin between Biden and Trump on any of the days of the 2020 campaign.
After those elections, the Republican refused to accept his defeat and promoted the vote count in some key states and several litigations that were dismissed in court.
In 2000, the election result was up in the air until the Supreme Court gave the victory to Republican George W. Busch on the Democrat Al Gore in Florida, which was then a hinge state.
But according to the FiveThirtyEight portal, to find elections as close as what the polls draw, we have to go back to 1876, when the Republican Rutherford Hayes beat the Democrat Samuel Tilden by a single electoral vote: 185 against 184.
Every vote counts
In such a tight scenario, every vote counts and the two candidates are doubling their presence in the seven decisive states, where in some cases the early vote has already begun with a high turnout.
The rhetoric and the crossfire between the two has also intensified with attacks and insults.
Trump suggested this week that he would be willing to deploy the military against the “internal enemies” of the United States, in an apparent reference to his political rivals, while Harris described his rival as “fascist” and “deranted.”
The vice president has decided to raise the tone against Trump in an attempt to revitalize her campaign, to which former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton have also joined, and former first lady Michelle Obama to give her a new impetus.
The Republican is this Sunday in Pennsylvania, where he is expected to visit a McDonald’s and accuse Harris of having invented that he worked for that fast food chain as a young man.
For her part, the Democratic candidate, who turns 60 today, is in Georgia before traveling to Pennsylvania, where tomorrow she will campaign with Liz Cheney, a former Republican congressman facing Trump.
International
China calls for dialogue amid rising Iran-Israel conflict
The Chinese government emphasized on Monday the importance of “creating the conditions to return to the proper path of dialogue” between Iran and Israel, which have exchanged attacks in recent days resulting in more than 20 Israeli and over 220 Iranian deaths.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun expressed deep concern at a press conference over the Israeli attacks on Iran and the “sudden escalation” of the military conflict.
Guo called on all parties to “take immediate measures to ease tensions and prevent the region from descending into further turmoil,” stating that “force cannot bring lasting peace.”
“If the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to intensify or even expand, the countries of the Middle East will be the first to suffer the consequences,” he added, while noting that China “will continue to maintain communication with the relevant parties, promoting peace and dialogue.”
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke last Saturday with his Iranian and Israeli counterparts to condemn the Israeli airstrike on Iranian territory, which he described as a “violation of international law” with the potential to trigger “disastrous” consequences.
In both calls, Wang reiterated China’s rejection of the use of force, defended diplomacy as the only solution to the Iranian nuclear dispute, and offered China’s mediation to prevent further destabilization in the Middle East.
International
Suspect arrested in killing of Minnesota legislator and husband, governor Says
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz announced on Sunday the arrest of Vance Luther Boelter, 57, the main suspect in the killing of Democratic legislator Melissa Hortman and her husband in a Brooklyn Park suburb on Friday night.
Boelter, who also reportedly shot State Senator John Hoffman and his wife early Saturday morning, was apprehended in Sibley County following an intensive manhunt involving hundreds of law enforcement officers.
In a public statement, Governor Walz condemned Boelter’s “unthinkable actions,” which resulted in the death of a woman who “shaped the core of who we are as a state.”
“We cannot become numb to this. We are a deeply divided nation,” Walz said in a statement posted on his X account.
“We move forward not with hatred or violence, but with humility, grace, and civility,” he added.
Expressing solidarity with the victims’ families, Walz said the entire state of Minnesota is in mourning. He also thanked law enforcement for their bravery and professionalism: “They have saved lives,” he emphasized.
“As we heal, we will not let fear win,” Walz concluded. “We must honor Melissa by moving forward with understanding, service, and above all, humanity.”
Throughout Sunday, police and sheriff units searched a rural area in Minnesota for Vance Luther Boelter, a security company director and preacher who, according to Governor Walz, acted out of politically motivated violence.
International
40,000 tourists stranded in Israel amid airspace shutdown over Iran conflict
Approximately 40,000 tourists are stranded in Israel following the closure of the country’s airspace amid escalating hostilities with Iran, the Israeli Ministry of Tourism reported on Monday.
The ministry has set up a virtual office to provide information via email (virtual@goisrael.gov.il) and phone (+972-53-583-5808), as well as a Facebook page called Israel Virtual Tourist Office.
Israeli Tourism Minister Haim Katz is in contact with hotels and accommodations across the country to offer support to tourists in need, the ministry added.
Many stranded travelers are considering crossing overland into Jordan or Egypt to seek flights from those countries. The Israel Airports Authority reminded the public that land border crossings remain open.
Three German tourists stranded in Jerusalem told EFE today that they have not received any assistance from their country’s embassy in Israel, and their primary option currently is to cross into Jordan to catch a flight from there.
Since early Friday morning, Israel launched operations against Iran, targeting military personnel and infrastructure, including energy and nuclear facilities, as well as numerous residential areas in Tehran.
In response, Iran has fired hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel, some of which have struck various locations across the country, leaving at least 24 dead so far, according to Israeli authorities.
Iranian health officials report at least 224 deaths, mostly civilians, including at least 17 senior military officials—nine from the Revolutionary Guard—and more than a dozen nuclear scientists.
The Israeli military has warned that many more “targets” remain, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declared on Monday that it will continue missile attacks against Israel until its “destruction.”
China calls for dialogue amid rising Iran-Israel conflict
Suspect arrested in killing of Minnesota legislator and husband, governor Says
40,000 tourists stranded in Israel amid airspace shutdown over Iran conflict
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