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Will Trump’s verdict impact his presidential career?

For a long time, former US president Donald Trump has been leading the polls to return to the White House in front of a Joe Biden in low hours. The country wonders this Friday if the Republican’s guilty verdict will impact his presidential career.

Trump on Thursday became the first former U.S. president to be found guilty in a criminal trial, in his case on 34 charges of serious crimes of falsification of commercial records related to the payment of a porn actress to protect her presidential career in 2016.

The Republican politician, who has denounced from the beginning that he suffers a “witch hunt,” declared that the “royal verdict” will be given by the voters in the elections on November 5.

Biden also took advantage of the historic day to campaign and affirm that “there is only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the polls,” said the Democratic president.

After the jury’s guilty verdict was heard, it is the turn of Judge Juan Merchán, who will announce the sentence on July 11, a few days before the Republican Party officially names Trump as its candidate at the National Convention to be held in Milwaukee (Wisconsin).

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Each of the crimes carries penalties of up to 4 years in prison, which can be served simultaneously, although the judge can also opt for other alternatives such as parole, house arrest or fines.

Of course, the defiant behavior that Trump has had during the trial will not serve to mitigate his sentence.
But since he has already turned 77 and has no criminal record, “it is very unlikely that he will go to jail,” Mark Smith, a constitutionalist expert at Cedarville University (Ohio), tells EFE.

In addition, in the event that he was sentenced to prison, this would not disable him from participating in next November’s elections, in which he tries to take the charge from Biden.

The defense of the tycoon will appeal the judge’s decision and will try to extend the judicial process to the maximum, trying to get the final sentence out when he is already the new president in the White House.

According to Smith, if he received a prison sentence already as president, his compliance would be delayed until after his term in office since it would be considered that “his role as president is more important” than immediately complying with a sentence of a state court.

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Therefore, the doubt of whether voters will punish Trump after hearing the verdict and the sentence becomes even more important. The indications so far point to the opposite.

Neither the details of the trial nor the other three criminal charges that weigh on Trump (two for electoral interference in 2020 and another for having taken classified documents from the White House) have diminished his strong electoral base in a very polarized country.

According to the average of polls made by the FiveThirtyEight portal, Trump would win the elections at the national level with 41.3% of the votes compared to 39.3% of Biden.

A survey published by the public media NPR and PBS before the guilty verdict was known reflected that 67% of Americans do not intend to change the meaning of their vote based on what the jury decided on Trump.

The trial IN New York is also perceived as the least serious one faced by Trump, but the other three are paralyzed waiting for the Supreme Court to decide if the former president has immunity and can hardly be carried out before the elections.

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The Republican appeared this Friday before the press in a new attempt to mobilize his base, where he called the trial in New York “rigged” and claimed that he continues to lead the polls.

For political scientist Geoffrey Bowden, it is clear that the Republican’s strategy will continue to be to “affirm that the judicial system is manipulated” and act as “a victim.”

“Trump’s most loyal supporters will believe that the whole process is rigged but most Americans don’t believe it,” the analyst told EFE.

A prison sentence, therefore, could demobilize Trump’s more moderate voters and that is dangerous for the Republican in key states where elections are tighter, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

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International

U.S. strike in Caribbean kills three suspected drug traffickers

A U.S. strike on a suspected drug-smuggling vessel in the Caribbean killed three people on Saturday, according to Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth, marking the latest in a series of attacks in international waters.

The United States has deployed ships to the Caribbean and sent fighter jets to Puerto Rico as part of a large military force that Washington says is aimed at curbing drug trafficking.

“This vessel, like all the others, was known to our intelligence for being involved in illicit narcotics smuggling,” Hegseth stated on X. “Three narcoterrorists were aboard the vessel during the attack, which took place in international waters,” he added.

Experts argue that the attacks, which began in early September, amount to extrajudicial executions, even if the targets are known traffickers.

Washington has yet to publicly provide evidence that the targeted individuals were actively smuggling drugs or posed a threat to the United States.

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Hegseth said the U.S. would continue “hunting… and killing” suspected traffickers. He also shared video footage of the strike, showing the vessel being hit and engulfed in flames. As in previous videos, sections of the ship were blurred, making it impossible to verify the number of people on board.

The United Nations called on Friday for Washington to halt its attacks.

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International

At least 23 killed in Sonora supermarket blast, including minors

At least 23 people were killed and 11 others injured in an explosion at a supermarket in Hermosillo, in the northern Mexican state of Sonora, local authorities reported on Saturday.

“So far, there are 23 confirmed deaths and 11 injured, including minors,” said Sonora Governor Alfonso Durazo in a video message. He added that the injured are receiving treatment in various hospitals across the city.

“I have ordered a thorough and transparent investigation to determine the causes of the incident and assign responsibility where appropriate,” Durazo said.

The explosion occurred at a Waldo’s store in downtown Hermosillo. Local authorities confirmed that the incident was not an attack nor related to any violent act against civilians.

Meanwhile, Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum expressed her condolences on X, offering sympathy to the families and loved ones of those who lost their lives.

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International

Floods in Central Vietnam leave 28 dead, thousands displaced

The death toll from heavy rains and flooding in central Vietnam has risen to 28, with six people reported missing and 43 injured, local newspaper VnExpress reported Friday night.

More than 22,100 homes remain flooded, primarily in the cities of Hue and Da Nang. Floods and landslides have destroyed or swept away 91 houses and damaged another 181, the report added.

Around 245,000 households are still without electricity, particularly in Da Nang, where over 225,000 homes are affected.

Additionally, 80 stretches of national highways are blocked or disrupted due to landslides. Authorities expect the flooding to continue for another day or two in the region.

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