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What is Trump’s chance of going to jail?

Donald Trump became the first former American president to be convicted in a criminal trial on Thursday, but his guilty verdict for falsification of commercial records does not imply, according to various experts, that he will go to jail.

The jury of his trial in New York did not absolve him of any of the 34 charges against him, each of which can result in a fine of up to $5,000 and up to four years in prison, in case he imposed the maximum penalty.

However, it is most likely that it will be dictated that what is decided for each of those positions will be fulfilled at the same time, which would reduce that period between bars to four years in total.

Dan Horwtitz, a defense lawyer who in the past took ‘white-neck’ cases for the office of the Manhattan District Prosecutor’s Office, pointed out on Thursday on CBS News that the possibility of house arrest is the most feasible.

That sentence would allow the former president and pre-candidate for the November elections to continue his campaign, even if it was virtually.

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But the possibilities are wide: Judge Juan Merchan, in the opinion of the expert, “could sentence him to a period of months or weeks in prison or he could demand that he go to jail every weekend for a while and then serve the rest of the sentence on parole.”

The 77-year-old Republican president, his status and lack of background are presented as points in his favor.

According to the NBC News channel, an analysis of “thousands of cases” similar to the one starring Trump points out that “very few people” end up in bars: barely one in ten convicted of falsifying commercial records, and those cases used to also involve other crimes.

The former president faced 34 charges of serious crimes of falsification of commercial records, all related to the reimbursement to his lawyer for paying in 2016 a total of $130,000 to the porn actress Stormy Daniels to silence an alleged sexual relationship in 2006.

The sentence will be announced on July 11, four days before the start of the convention in which the Republican Party is expected to officially proclaim Trump as its candidate for the November elections.

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In any case, the possible appeal of the former president would delay an eventual entry into prison.

The New York Times made it clear on Thursday that nothing can be taken for granted: “But there have been no indication of what Judge Merchan could decide, he has made it known that he takes white collar crimes seriously. Trump has attacked him and continuously denounced him as “partial and corrupt,” that newspaper said.

At the moment Trump is still a free man and a prison sentence would not invalidate his candidacy or his eventual presidency. The U.S. Constitution does not provide for anything about it, since it only requires presidents to be at least 35 years old and that they are U.S. citizens who have lived in the country for 14 years.

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International

Mexico and U.S. Launch New Bilateral Security Group to Combat Fentanyl and Organized Crime

The governments of Mexico and the United States officially launched the Bilateral Implementation Group (BIG) on Friday, a new initiative aimed at strengthening cooperation on security issues and enhancing joint efforts against transnational crime.

In a statement, U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ronald Johnson announced that he and Deputy Foreign Minister Roberto Velasco addressed officials from both countries who will lead what he described as a “new phase of bilateral cooperation.” The initiative seeks to curb the flow of fentanyl and other illicit drugs, illegal firearms, and human trafficking across the shared border.

Earlier this week, Mexico’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs had confirmed that senior security officials from both nations would meet in Mexico City on June 12 to review and advance existing cooperation agreements.

Through social media, Ambassador Johnson explained that the new bilateral group is designed to improve coordination between the two governments by placing greater emphasis on implementation, accountability, and measurable results. The effort will also focus on combating transnational criminal organizations operating across North America.

“The participation of 15 U.S. government agencies, working alongside their Mexican counterparts, reflects the seriousness of this effort and our shared commitment to delivering measurable results,” Johnson said.

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The ambassador also highlighted several achievements that he attributed to ongoing bilateral cooperation. According to Johnson, maritime drug trafficking into the United States has declined by more than 95 percent, while overdose deaths have fallen by 35 percent.

He further noted that Mexican authorities have seized more than 400 metric tons of illegal drugs and dismantled over 2,300 clandestine laboratories as part of their efforts to combat organized crime and narcotics production.

The launch of the Bilateral Implementation Group marks the latest step in the security partnership between Mexico and the United States, as both countries seek to address shared challenges related to drug trafficking, arms smuggling, human trafficking, and the activities of criminal networks operating across the region.

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International

‘El Chapo’ Guzmán again asks Mexican president to seek his return from U.S. prison

Convicted drug trafficker Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán has once again appealed to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to intervene on his behalf and seek his transfer from the United States to Mexico, where he hopes to serve the remainder of his prison sentence.

Guzmán, the former leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, is currently serving a sentence of more than 50 years in the United States after being convicted in 2019 on multiple charges, including drug trafficking and money laundering.

According to reports, the latest request was made in a letter dated June 2, one of several messages that Guzmán has reportedly sent to Sheinbaum in recent months in an effort to secure his repatriation. In the letter, he expresses hope that the Mexican government can support the efforts of his legal team.

Written in English and by hand, the letter asks that he be allowed to complete his sentence in Mexico, arguing that such a transfer would enable him to receive visits from family members more easily.

Guzmán is currently being held at the United States Penitentiary Administrative Maximum Facility in Florence, Colorado, commonly known as the “Alcatraz of the Rockies,” one of the most secure prisons in the United States.

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As in previous communications, the former cartel leader complained about his prison conditions, stating that he remains in near-total isolation and has little to no contact with other inmates.

He also reiterated his long-standing claim that he did not receive a fair trial in the United States and argued that the Mexican government bears responsibility for much of the violence associated with organized crime in the country.

In the letter, Guzmán maintains that his actions were motivated by a desire to protect himself and his family amid the violence linked to criminal organizations in Mexico.

Mexican authorities have not publicly indicated whether they plan to respond to the request. Guzmán remains one of the most notorious figures in the history of international drug trafficking and is serving his sentence under some of the strictest security measures in the U.S. prison system.

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Central America

U.S. Authorities Accuse Guatemalan Nationals of Using False Information to Sponsor Migrant Minors

Senior officials from the U.S. Department of Justice and the Department of Homeland Security announced Thursday criminal charges against three Guatemalan citizens accused of using false information to sponsor migrant children who crossed the U.S.-Mexico border without a parent or guardian.

According to an indictment filed in Ohio, Maritza Cahuec Coc allegedly submitted at least 12 sponsorship applications, several of which were filed under aliases or contained materially false statements intended to secure custody of the minors.

Under U.S. procedures, unaccompanied migrant children apprehended at the southern border are placed in the custody of the Department of Health and Human Services, which is responsible for their care until they can be released to a qualified sponsor, such as a parent or relative living in the United States.

Prosecutors allege that Cahuec Coc, who reportedly entered the United States illegally in 2018, received payments between late 2020 and 2023 for helping bring 12 migrant minors into the country. Authorities claim she submitted fraudulent documents and misleading information to obtain approval for the sponsorship requests.

The case was announced during a joint press conference led by Acting Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche and Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin. However, officials provided limited details about the investigation and instead focused much of their remarks on criticizing immigration policies implemented under the previous administration.

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Republican lawmakers and Trump administration officials have frequently pointed to the increase in unaccompanied migrant children arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border during President Joe Biden’s term, arguing that the government failed to adequately oversee their care and placement.

During Thursday’s briefing, A. Tysen Duva, Assistant Attorney General for the Justice Department’s Criminal Division, alleged that Cahuec Coc used the identities of other individuals and falsely claimed family relationships in order to obtain custody of the children.

“Maritza submitted sponsorship applications using other people’s identities and falsely represented that the minors were the children of close relatives in order to secure their release,” Duva said.

The case remains under investigation, and federal authorities have not yet disclosed additional information regarding the other two Guatemalan nationals charged in connection with the alleged scheme.

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