Central America
Analysts predict opposition defeat in 2024 elections in El Salvador
October 5 |
The low voting intention and preference, according to several polls, that the population maintains towards the traditional political parties for next year’s elections “is irreversible”, therefore, the electoral triumph of Nayib Bukele at the polls is imminent, according to analysts and sociologists René Martínez and Mauricio Rodríguez.
Both agree that it will be difficult for the traditional parties (ARENA and FMLN) to attract more voters, due to the discontent of Salvadorans for the bad management of their municipal and presidential administrations.
Data from the last opinion poll of the Universidad Francisco Gavidia (UFG) indicated that the tricolor presidential ticket [Joel Sánchez and Hilcia Bonilla] has a voting intention of 4.3 %; and the farabundista candidates [Manuel Flores and Wérner Marroquín] of 2.8 %.
In view of this scenario, in the middle of the beginning of the legal term for the presidential electoral campaign, Martínez and Rodríguez warned that the opposition parties could resort to the “dirty campaign”, as a mechanism to attack Nayib Bukele, candidate of Nuevas Ideas who will compete for immediate reelection, enabled based on the sentence 1-2021 of the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice which reinterpreted article 152 of the Constitution of the Republic.
“On the part of the opposition candidates, who together would not even reach 10% of the popular support, what is expected is “dirty war”, false news, defamation, continuous calls to return to the past of corruption and impunity and, above all, promises to remove the regime of exception and release terrorist criminals”, considered Martinez.
The presidential elections are scheduled for February 4, 2024, according to the calendar of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). In these elections, in addition to citizens residing in El Salvador, the diaspora will also be able to vote by means of electronic voting via Internet and electronic voting in person, according to the provisions of the Special Law for the Exercise of Suffrage Abroad, approved by the Legislative Assembly last year.
Unlike the opposition, analysts valued, Nayib Bukele maintains the leadership in voting intentions and citizen preference, results that will be ratified at the polls, by virtue of his work in favor of Salvadorans, highlighting security with the fight against gangs.
The same UFG survey that projected the unfavorable scenario for the opposition established that the presidential formula of Nuevas Ideas [Nayib Bukele and Félix Ulloa] have a voting intention of 68. 4%, which increases to 87% only with valid votes.
“Re-election is imminent. I believe that if the first presidential term [of Nayib Bukele] was to settle public security, the second term is to empower the country’s economic sectors,” said Rodríguez.
Central America
U.S. and Regional Allies Back Panama Amid Dispute With China
The United States, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Guyana, Paraguay and Trinidad and Tobago issued a joint statement in support of Panama’s sovereignty, arguing that China’s recent actions represent an attempt to politicize maritime trade and undermine the sovereignty of nations in the hemisphere.
“We are closely monitoring China’s selective economic pressure and recent actions affecting vessels flying the Panamanian flag,” the statement released Tuesday said. “Panama is a pillar of our maritime trading system and, as such, must remain free from undue external pressure.”
The statement comes amid growing tensions surrounding the Panama Canal and the operation of key ports linked to global trade.
At the end of January, Panama’s Supreme Court invalidated the legal framework supporting the 1997 concession that granted Panama Ports Company, a subsidiary of CK Hutchison, the right to operate the Balboa and Cristóbal terminals located on the Pacific and Atlantic entrances of the Panama Canal.
The ruling followed mounting pressure from the United States to curb Chinese influence around the strategic waterway, through which roughly 5% of global maritime trade passes.
CK Hutchison, which managed the ports for nearly three decades, rejected the court’s decision and accused Panamanian authorities of illegally confiscating its assets. The company has launched international arbitration proceedings against Panama, seeking more than $2 billion in damages.
Following the court ruling, reports emerged of increased detentions and inspections of Panamanian-flagged vessels in China, actions widely viewed as retaliatory measures.
On Wednesday, China’s Foreign Ministry dismissed the joint statement as “completely unfounded and misleading,” accusing the United States of politicizing port operations and warning that Beijing would take steps to protect its interests in Panama.
Central America
International Project Tackles Gender Violence in Indigenous Communities in Panama
Efforts to combat machismo and gender-based violence in Panama’s indigenous communities are advancing through international cooperation projects, including an initiative presented this week that is evolving from women’s empowerment toward a new phase focused on educating husbands and sons.
The project, led by the organization HIAS with support from the Spanish Cooperation Agency, is being implemented in the Emberá-Wounaan indigenous territory in the Darién jungle region near the Colombian border.
Originally created to bring state services closer to remote communities, the initiative focused on access to healthcare — particularly sexual and reproductive health services — but later expanded to promote broader access to fundamental rights.
“The project emerged from the understanding that strengthening the rights of the population as a whole was essential to achieving fairer, more cohesive and inclusive societies capable of fighting poverty,” Itziar González, general coordinator of Spanish Cooperation in Panama, told EFE.
HIAS Country Director in Panama Oliver Bush explained that the initiative includes “a very strong component of empowerment for women and adolescent girls in the Emberá-Wounaan communities, aimed at recovering the historical worldview in which women have always played a fundamental role in decision-making within their communities.”
The program also includes prevention, mitigation and response mechanisms against gender-based violence, an area that will be reinforced during the project’s second phase.
“It will include a component focused on positive masculinities, where we will work with men, because men are an important factor in the prevention and mitigation of gender violence,” Bush said.
According to Bush, the initiative seeks not only to eliminate stigmas and forms of everyday sexism that are often socially and culturally ingrained in men, but also to encourage men to recognize themselves as sensitive human beings capable of contributing to healthier and more equal communities.
Central America
Guatemala’s President to Hold Private Interviews for Attorney General Candidates
Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo de León announced that he will privately interview the six candidates for attorney general this week, breaking with the public format used by former President Alejandro Giammattei.
Speaking during a press conference on Monday, Arévalo said the interviews would not be open to the public because he intends to question candidates about their plans to recover the Attorney General’s Office from what he described as “political-criminal networks.”
Under Guatemalan law, the president is responsible for appointing the country’s attorney general.
The position has been held since 2018 by Consuelo Porras, whose term is set to expire on May 16 after two consecutive terms marked by local and international allegations of corruption.
Arévalo is expected to select the new attorney general later this week from a shortlist recently submitted by a nomination commission.
The Guatemalan president has repeatedly criticized the Public Prosecutor’s Office, claiming it has been compromised by corrupt political interests.
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