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Analysts predict opposition defeat in 2024 elections in El Salvador

Analysts predict opposition defeat in 2024 elections in El Salvador
Photo: Diario El Salvador

October 5 |

The low voting intention and preference, according to several polls, that the population maintains towards the traditional political parties for next year’s elections “is irreversible”, therefore, the electoral triumph of Nayib Bukele at the polls is imminent, according to analysts and sociologists René Martínez and Mauricio Rodríguez.

Both agree that it will be difficult for the traditional parties (ARENA and FMLN) to attract more voters, due to the discontent of Salvadorans for the bad management of their municipal and presidential administrations.

Data from the last opinion poll of the Universidad Francisco Gavidia (UFG) indicated that the tricolor presidential ticket [Joel Sánchez and Hilcia Bonilla] has a voting intention of 4.3 %; and the farabundista candidates [Manuel Flores and Wérner Marroquín] of 2.8 %.

In view of this scenario, in the middle of the beginning of the legal term for the presidential electoral campaign, Martínez and Rodríguez warned that the opposition parties could resort to the “dirty campaign”, as a mechanism to attack Nayib Bukele, candidate of Nuevas Ideas who will compete for immediate reelection, enabled based on the sentence 1-2021 of the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice which reinterpreted article 152 of the Constitution of the Republic.

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“On the part of the opposition candidates, who together would not even reach 10% of the popular support, what is expected is “dirty war”, false news, defamation, continuous calls to return to the past of corruption and impunity and, above all, promises to remove the regime of exception and release terrorist criminals”, considered Martinez.

The presidential elections are scheduled for February 4, 2024, according to the calendar of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). In these elections, in addition to citizens residing in El Salvador, the diaspora will also be able to vote by means of electronic voting via Internet and electronic voting in person, according to the provisions of the Special Law for the Exercise of Suffrage Abroad, approved by the Legislative Assembly last year.

Unlike the opposition, analysts valued, Nayib Bukele maintains the leadership in voting intentions and citizen preference, results that will be ratified at the polls, by virtue of his work in favor of Salvadorans, highlighting security with the fight against gangs.

The same UFG survey that projected the unfavorable scenario for the opposition established that the presidential formula of Nuevas Ideas [Nayib Bukele and Félix Ulloa] have a voting intention of 68. 4%, which increases to 87% only with valid votes.

“Re-election is imminent. I believe that if the first presidential term [of Nayib Bukele] was to settle public security, the second term is to empower the country’s economic sectors,” said Rodríguez.

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Central America

Costa Rica faces historic vote on lifting presidential immunity for Rodrigo Chaves

Costa Rica, a country internationally recognized for its democratic and political stability, is heading toward an unprecedented decision: whether to lift President Rodrigo Chaves’s immunity so he can face a criminal trial over alleged irregular management of funds from the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI).

On Wednesday, the Legislative Assembly formed a commission of three lawmakers to analyze the accusation against the president, which was forwarded earlier this month by the Supreme Court of Justice. The commission has 20 days, extendable for another 20, to issue a report so that the full Assembly can vote on whether to lift the president’s immunity.

Lifting the immunity would require 38 votes — two-thirds of the legislature — which is largely composed of opposition parties.

If immunity is removed, prosecutors would be able to continue their investigation and potentially question the president. If the motion fails, the case would return to the judiciary and remain pending until Chaves’s term ends in May 2026.

Since the country’s last civil war in 1948 and the abolition of the army later that year, Costa Rica has held uninterrupted elections, every president has completed their term without major issues, and none has ever had their immunity lifted — although several have faced judicial proceedings.

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Honduras sees ongoing killings of land defenders and attacks on press, warns NGO

The Association for Participatory Citizenship (ACI PARTICIPA) denounced on Thursday that killings of land defenders and attacks aimed at silencing the press continue in Honduras.

“We continue to see murders of defenders of land and territory, as well as aggressions to silence the press. In 2024, there were 490 attacks and aggressions that constitute human rights violations,” said ACI PARTICIPA’s executive director, Hedme Castro, during the presentation of the 2024 Report on the Situation of Human Rights Defenders in Honduras.

Castro noted that the aggressions range “from attempts on lives, threats, harassment, intimidation, and smear campaigns, which have become very frequent, to obstruction of work, surveillance, and criminalization.”

She highlighted that, although only seven defenders were killed in 2024 compared to 24 in 2023, “last year we saw a significantly high number of women murdered, and cases of missing children.”

Moreover, Castro criticized the authorities for failing to address the violence. “There is no response from the authorities to reduce the violence in the country; in fact, I believe that the ‘fathers of the nation’ (members of Parliament) are not setting the right example, and the situation in the Legislative branch is actually fueling violence,” she added, referring to frequent violent incidents in Congress.

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The ACI PARTICIPA report also notes that the government led by President Xiomara Castro has made “an important effort over the past two years to improve citizens’ access to basic rights, helping to cushion the effects of economic deterioration, although a decent standard of living has yet to be achieved for the majority of Hondurans.”

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Central America

Daniel Ortega’s last historic sandinista ally detained in Managua

Former Sandinista revolutionary commander and presidential economic adviser Bayardo Arce Castaño was arrested on Thursday in Managua for alleged irregular transactions involving state-owned assets, according to local media reports.

The arrest was carried out by agents from the Special Operations Directorate of the Police, who raided his residence in the southern part of the Nicaraguan capital. The Attorney General’s Office (PGR) is investigating Arce for “transactions and/or negotiations” that, according to authorities, do not comply with current legal standards.

Arce, 76, was one of the nine historic commanders of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) who led the overthrow of dictator Anastasio Somoza in 1979. Since 2007, he had served as the economic adviser to dictator Daniel Ortega, and was the last of the historic commanders still aligned with the regime.

The Attorney General’s Office accused Arce of contempt after he refused to appear for questioning about properties registered in his name. Authorities allege that Ricardo Bonilla, Arce’s assistant, was also involved in questionable financial dealings and was jailed after failing to comply with a summons.

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