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Analysts predict opposition defeat in 2024 elections in El Salvador

Analysts predict opposition defeat in 2024 elections in El Salvador
Photo: Diario El Salvador

October 5 |

The low voting intention and preference, according to several polls, that the population maintains towards the traditional political parties for next year’s elections “is irreversible”, therefore, the electoral triumph of Nayib Bukele at the polls is imminent, according to analysts and sociologists René Martínez and Mauricio Rodríguez.

Both agree that it will be difficult for the traditional parties (ARENA and FMLN) to attract more voters, due to the discontent of Salvadorans for the bad management of their municipal and presidential administrations.

Data from the last opinion poll of the Universidad Francisco Gavidia (UFG) indicated that the tricolor presidential ticket [Joel Sánchez and Hilcia Bonilla] has a voting intention of 4.3 %; and the farabundista candidates [Manuel Flores and Wérner Marroquín] of 2.8 %.

In view of this scenario, in the middle of the beginning of the legal term for the presidential electoral campaign, Martínez and Rodríguez warned that the opposition parties could resort to the “dirty campaign”, as a mechanism to attack Nayib Bukele, candidate of Nuevas Ideas who will compete for immediate reelection, enabled based on the sentence 1-2021 of the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice which reinterpreted article 152 of the Constitution of the Republic.

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“On the part of the opposition candidates, who together would not even reach 10% of the popular support, what is expected is “dirty war”, false news, defamation, continuous calls to return to the past of corruption and impunity and, above all, promises to remove the regime of exception and release terrorist criminals”, considered Martinez.

The presidential elections are scheduled for February 4, 2024, according to the calendar of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). In these elections, in addition to citizens residing in El Salvador, the diaspora will also be able to vote by means of electronic voting via Internet and electronic voting in person, according to the provisions of the Special Law for the Exercise of Suffrage Abroad, approved by the Legislative Assembly last year.

Unlike the opposition, analysts valued, Nayib Bukele maintains the leadership in voting intentions and citizen preference, results that will be ratified at the polls, by virtue of his work in favor of Salvadorans, highlighting security with the fight against gangs.

The same UFG survey that projected the unfavorable scenario for the opposition established that the presidential formula of Nuevas Ideas [Nayib Bukele and Félix Ulloa] have a voting intention of 68. 4%, which increases to 87% only with valid votes.

“Re-election is imminent. I believe that if the first presidential term [of Nayib Bukele] was to settle public security, the second term is to empower the country’s economic sectors,” said Rodríguez.

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Central America

EU Urges Nicaragua to Hold Free and Transparent Elections Amid Proposed Electoral Reforms

The European Union on Saturday called on Nicaragua to hold elections “in accordance with international standards” after the country’s co-president, Daniel Ortega, promoted electoral reforms that critics say would prevent opposition groups from participating in future elections.

Nicaragua’s National Assembly, which is controlled by allies of President Ortega and Co-President Rosario Murillo, announced on Wednesday that it would draft a package of constitutional and electoral reforms to be voted on in August. Legislative President Gustavo Porras said the changes are intended to prevent what he described as the “terrible manipulation by empires and their lackeys” in the country’s electoral process, referring to opposition groups.

In a statement issued on behalf of the European Union’s 27 member states, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas urged the Nicaraguan authorities to preserve democratic principles.

“We call on the authorities to convene elections and ensure that they are held as originally scheduled and conducted in a transparent, inclusive, and credible manner, in accordance with international standards,” Kallas said.

The European Union also reiterated its condemnation of what it described as the Nicaraguan government’s “systemic repression.” Kallas called for dialogue between Ortega’s administration and opposition groups before any electoral reforms are implemented.

Ortega, who has been in power for nearly two decades, has faced repeated criticism from the international community over restrictions on political opponents and civil liberties.

In response to the growing international criticism, the Nicaraguan government announced on Friday that it will brief foreign diplomats on the proposed reforms, seeking to explain the objectives and scope of the legislative package before it is debated in Congress next month.

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Central America

Honduras Warns of Possible New Dengue Epidemic as Cases Continue to Rise

Honduras could be on the verge of a new dengue epidemic, according to physician and Honduran lawmaker Carlos Umaña, who warned about the sustained increase in cases across the country.

“We are on the verge of a new dengue epidemic because cases have been rising steadily,” Umaña said, urging citizens to take preventive measures. “Let’s eliminate breeding sites so we do not face fatal consequences later,” he added.

According to official data cited by Honduran media, the country had recorded 5,780 dengue cases nationwide through epidemiological week 26, covering the period from June 28 to July 4.

Of that total, 1,362 patients developed dengue with warning signs, while at least 100 cases progressed to severe dengue, increasing pressure on the national healthcare system.

Although current figures represent a decline of nearly 39% compared with the same period in 2025, when more than 9,400 cases had been reported, health authorities continue monitoring the situation due to the risk of a new surge.

Umaña warned that if the spread of the virus is not contained, Honduras could face an increase in fatalities, particularly among vulnerable groups such as children and adolescents.

Health officials continue urging the population to remove mosquito breeding sites and strengthen prevention measures to reduce transmission of the disease.

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Central America

CDC Issues Level 2 Travel Alert for Costa Rica Amid Chikungunya Outbreak

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a Level 2 travel notice for Costa Rica following an outbreak of chikungunya, a mosquito-borne viral disease, urging U.S. travelers to “take additional precautions”when visiting the country.

On July 1, 2026, Costa Rica’s Ministry of Health declared an active chikungunya outbreak after confirming four casesand classifying 17 additional infections as probable among Costa Rican citizens and foreign nationals.

So far in 2026, Costa Rica has reported a total of 16 confirmed cases, including those linked to the current outbreak.

Chikungunya is a viral disease transmitted through the bite of infected mosquitoes. Symptoms usually appear three to seven days after a bite and may include high fever, severe joint and muscle pain, headaches, swelling, and skin rashes.

Although most people recover within about a week, some patients may experience persistent joint pain that can last for months or even years.

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According to the CDC, there are currently no specific medications to treat chikungunya, but rest, adequate fluid intake, and over-the-counter pain relievers can help reduce symptoms.

The agency recommends that travelers visiting areas affected by chikungunya outbreaks consider vaccination as a preventive measure.

The CDC also warned that certain groups face a higher risk of developing severe illness, including newborns infected during birth, adults aged 65 and older, and people with underlying conditions such as diabetes or heart disease.

While chikungunya can cause significant health complications, the infection rarely results in death, health authorities said.

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