Central America

Analysts predict opposition defeat in 2024 elections in El Salvador

Photo: Diario El Salvador

October 5 |

The low voting intention and preference, according to several polls, that the population maintains towards the traditional political parties for next year’s elections “is irreversible”, therefore, the electoral triumph of Nayib Bukele at the polls is imminent, according to analysts and sociologists René Martínez and Mauricio Rodríguez.

Both agree that it will be difficult for the traditional parties (ARENA and FMLN) to attract more voters, due to the discontent of Salvadorans for the bad management of their municipal and presidential administrations.

Data from the last opinion poll of the Universidad Francisco Gavidia (UFG) indicated that the tricolor presidential ticket [Joel Sánchez and Hilcia Bonilla] has a voting intention of 4.3 %; and the farabundista candidates [Manuel Flores and Wérner Marroquín] of 2.8 %.

In view of this scenario, in the middle of the beginning of the legal term for the presidential electoral campaign, Martínez and Rodríguez warned that the opposition parties could resort to the “dirty campaign”, as a mechanism to attack Nayib Bukele, candidate of Nuevas Ideas who will compete for immediate reelection, enabled based on the sentence 1-2021 of the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice which reinterpreted article 152 of the Constitution of the Republic.

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“On the part of the opposition candidates, who together would not even reach 10% of the popular support, what is expected is “dirty war”, false news, defamation, continuous calls to return to the past of corruption and impunity and, above all, promises to remove the regime of exception and release terrorist criminals”, considered Martinez.

The presidential elections are scheduled for February 4, 2024, according to the calendar of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). In these elections, in addition to citizens residing in El Salvador, the diaspora will also be able to vote by means of electronic voting via Internet and electronic voting in person, according to the provisions of the Special Law for the Exercise of Suffrage Abroad, approved by the Legislative Assembly last year.

Unlike the opposition, analysts valued, Nayib Bukele maintains the leadership in voting intentions and citizen preference, results that will be ratified at the polls, by virtue of his work in favor of Salvadorans, highlighting security with the fight against gangs.

The same UFG survey that projected the unfavorable scenario for the opposition established that the presidential formula of Nuevas Ideas [Nayib Bukele and Félix Ulloa] have a voting intention of 68. 4%, which increases to 87% only with valid votes.

“Re-election is imminent. I believe that if the first presidential term [of Nayib Bukele] was to settle public security, the second term is to empower the country’s economic sectors,” said Rodríguez.

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Related Topics:Central America El Salvador

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“The Iranian national soccer team is welcome at the World Cup, but I really don’t think it’s appropriate for them to be there, for their own safety,” Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social.

His comments came a day after Iran’s sports minister, Ahman Donyamali, said that there are currently no conditions for the country to participate in the tournament following the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, during a military offensive launched on February 28 by Israel and the United States.

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On Tuesday, the president of FIFA, Gianni Infantino, met with Trump at the White House.

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Following the meeting, Infantino said that Trump reiterated that Iran’s national team would be allowed to compete in the FIFA World Cup 2026.

“We discussed the current situation in Iran and the fact that the Iranian team has qualified to participate in the FIFA World Cup 2026. During the conversation, President Trump reiterated that the Iranian team is, of course, welcome to compete in the tournament in the United States,” Infantino wrote on Instagram.

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Speaking at a press conference in Guatemala City, the UN official explained that several factors have weakened judicial independence and placed the justice system in a “critical” situation.

Among the main problems identified were the “instrumentalization of justice,” concentration of power, and persecution of judicial officials, elements that, according to Satterthwaite, undermine the functioning of the rule of law in the country.

Satterthwaite presented these conclusions while releasing her final report on the visit she carried out in May 2025, when she spent 12 days in Guatemala assessing the performance of the judicial system.

During her stay, she met with judges, prosecutors, public defenders, lawyers, lawmakers, civil society organizations, and representatives of Indigenous communities, as well as officials from the executive, judicial, and legislative branches. These meetings took place in Guatemala City and in the departments of Quetzaltenango and Alta Verapaz.

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The rapporteur also reiterated her concern about the role of the Public Ministry of Guatemala, noting that the information collected points to the existence of a policy of criminalization against justice operators.

Despite this scenario, Satterthwaite expressed confidence that Guatemala can reverse the situation, highlighting that the country’s Constitution has previously demonstrated the ability to guarantee respect for the rule of law.

She also stressed that key appointments expected in the coming months will be decisive for the future of the judicial system, including the selection of a new Constitutional Court of Guatemala, a new Supreme Electoral Tribunal of Guatemala, and a new attorney general to replace the current head of the Public Ministry, Consuelo Porras.

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The panel presented a new report to the press on the situation in the Central American nation, which has been governed since 2007 by President Daniel Ortega and his wife and vice president Rosario Murillo.

Based on dozens of interviews and extensive documentary evidence, the report states that since 2018—the year when student protests erupted and were violently suppressed—public funds have been diverted to support repression, including money originally allocated for social assistance programs and public sanitation projects.

According to the report, a “parallel structure” was created within the ruling Sandinista National Liberation Front to channel resources toward security operations, pro-government armed groups, and party activities.

The investigation was carried out at the request of the United Nations Human Rights Council.

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Another key finding of the report concerns the existence of a surveillance and intelligence network that extends far beyond Nicaragua’s borders, allegedly used to monitor, intimidate, and target hundreds of thousands of Nicaraguans living abroad.

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