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Analysts predict opposition defeat in 2024 elections in El Salvador

Analysts predict opposition defeat in 2024 elections in El Salvador
Photo: Diario El Salvador

October 5 |

The low voting intention and preference, according to several polls, that the population maintains towards the traditional political parties for next year’s elections “is irreversible”, therefore, the electoral triumph of Nayib Bukele at the polls is imminent, according to analysts and sociologists René Martínez and Mauricio Rodríguez.

Both agree that it will be difficult for the traditional parties (ARENA and FMLN) to attract more voters, due to the discontent of Salvadorans for the bad management of their municipal and presidential administrations.

Data from the last opinion poll of the Universidad Francisco Gavidia (UFG) indicated that the tricolor presidential ticket [Joel Sánchez and Hilcia Bonilla] has a voting intention of 4.3 %; and the farabundista candidates [Manuel Flores and Wérner Marroquín] of 2.8 %.

In view of this scenario, in the middle of the beginning of the legal term for the presidential electoral campaign, Martínez and Rodríguez warned that the opposition parties could resort to the “dirty campaign”, as a mechanism to attack Nayib Bukele, candidate of Nuevas Ideas who will compete for immediate reelection, enabled based on the sentence 1-2021 of the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice which reinterpreted article 152 of the Constitution of the Republic.

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“On the part of the opposition candidates, who together would not even reach 10% of the popular support, what is expected is “dirty war”, false news, defamation, continuous calls to return to the past of corruption and impunity and, above all, promises to remove the regime of exception and release terrorist criminals”, considered Martinez.

The presidential elections are scheduled for February 4, 2024, according to the calendar of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). In these elections, in addition to citizens residing in El Salvador, the diaspora will also be able to vote by means of electronic voting via Internet and electronic voting in person, according to the provisions of the Special Law for the Exercise of Suffrage Abroad, approved by the Legislative Assembly last year.

Unlike the opposition, analysts valued, Nayib Bukele maintains the leadership in voting intentions and citizen preference, results that will be ratified at the polls, by virtue of his work in favor of Salvadorans, highlighting security with the fight against gangs.

The same UFG survey that projected the unfavorable scenario for the opposition established that the presidential formula of Nuevas Ideas [Nayib Bukele and Félix Ulloa] have a voting intention of 68. 4%, which increases to 87% only with valid votes.

“Re-election is imminent. I believe that if the first presidential term [of Nayib Bukele] was to settle public security, the second term is to empower the country’s economic sectors,” said Rodríguez.

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Central America

First woman elected president in the Americas, Violeta Chamorro, dead at 95

Violeta Barrios de Chamorro, former president of Nicaragua and the first woman in the Americas to be democratically elected head of state, passed away this Saturday in Costa Rica at the age of 95. A pivotal figure in Nicaragua’s transition to democracy, Chamorro achieved a historic victory over Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega in the 1990 elections, heading a broad opposition coalition.

The Chamorro Barrios family confirmed her death in a statement:
“Our mother, Violeta Barrios de Chamorro, former president of Nicaragua, passed away today, June 14, 2025, at 2:21 a.m. (08:21 GMT) in San José, Costa Rica, at the age of 95, after a long illness.”

“Doña Violeta died peacefully, surrounded by the love and affection of her children and the extraordinary care of those who looked after her. She is now in the peace of the Lord,” her children Pedro Joaquín, Claudia Lucía, Cristiana, and Carlos Fernando Chamorro Barrios wrote.

Chamorro’s victory in 1990 marked a significant turning point in Central American politics, ending more than a decade of Sandinista rule and initiating a fragile but hopeful democratic chapter in Nicaragua’s history.

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Central America

Nicaraguan exile coalition urges Costa Rica to receive U.S. deportees fleeing Ortega regime

The Coalition of Nicaraguans in Exile urged Costa Rican President Rodrigo Chaves on Sunday to receive opponents and critics of the Ortega-Murillo regime currently residing in the United States who may be deported by the administration of Donald Trump.

“We appeal to you, Mr. President, to kindly consider, as an act of humanity and in accordance with the principles of international refugee law, the reopening of entry and temporary reception pathways for Nicaraguan citizens deported from the United States,” the coalition stated in a letter addressed to Chaves.

They specifically requested the reopening of entry for those Nicaraguans who had previously sought asylum or refugee status in Costa Rica and who express a well-founded fear for their lives and personal safety if returned to Nicaragua.

The organization, which identifies itself as committed to defending and promoting the human rights of Nicaraguans “forced into exile by the repression of the Sandinista dictatorship,” expressed its appeal with “urgency and deep concern.”

In the letter, the coalition emphasized the dramatic situation faced by thousands of Nicaraguans who fled political persecution under Daniel Ortega’s regime and are now at risk of deportation from the United States.

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Central America

Panama begins reverse migration by sea for 109 stranded migrants

Panamanian authorities have transported a group of 109 migrants of various nationalities by sea to La Miel, a Caribbean town on the country’s border with Colombia, to continue their return journey to South America. The move comes after the migrants failed to settle in the United States, following stricter immigration policies implemented under the administration of former President Donald Trump.

The National Migration Service (SNM) of Panama announced in a statement on Tuesday that the transfer was carried out from the Caribbean port of Colón using a vessel from Panama’s National Aeronaval Service (Senan). The operation was part of the country’s so-called “reverse flow” initiative, aimed at facilitating the safe return of migrants.

The official report noted that the group included migrants from nine different nationalities, with 75 adults and 34 minors on board. Authorities emphasized the “inter-institutional commitment to safe and humanitarian reverse migration.”

A source familiar with the process, speaking anonymously to EFE, confirmed that the vessel departed on Monday. Many of the migrants had opted into the reverse flow program after arriving at the Temporary Attention Center for Migrants (CATEM) in Costa Rica, where coordination was made with Panamanian authorities for their return.

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