International
Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business
| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa
Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.
The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.
Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.
He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.
His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.
Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.
He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.
Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.
Into the shark tank
Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.
Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.
Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”
Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.
“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.
“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”
Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.
But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.
Markets watching
Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.
“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.
Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.
Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.
Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.
Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.
COP27 stage
Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.
The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.
In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.
Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”
International
Portuguese Authorities Seize 2.6 Tons of Cocaine Worth More Than $550 Million in Drug Bust
Italian financial police reported Monday that Portuguese authorities intercepted a speedboat carrying more than 2.6 tons of cocaine, with an estimated street value exceeding $550 million.
Four people — two Spanish nationals, one Albanian citizen, and a man from Gibraltar — were arrested in connection with the operation, according to Italian authorities.
The vessel was intercepted off the coast of Lisbon by Portugal’s maritime police following an investigation led by Italian authorities.
Italian financial police estimated that the seized shipment had a street value of approximately 500 million euros ($570 million), making it one of the largest drug seizures reported in the region in recent years.
Portuguese authorities said the interception took place on Thursday, about 90 kilometers (50 nautical miles) southwest of Cape Espichel, during an operation targeting international drug trafficking routes.
International
U.S. and Iran Maintain Ceasefire as Trump Expresses Optimism Over New Talks
U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday that there are “good chances” of reaching an agreement with Iran, as both sides maintained a ceasefire for the third consecutive day following weeks of escalating hostilities.
Trump expressed optimism about the possibility of resuming diplomatic negotiations aimed at ending the conflict, which began in late February and has raised international concerns over its impact on global markets and energy supplies.
The fighting has remained suspended since Saturday, after the United States resumed airstrikes against Iran amid a dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments. The renewed military action had previously caused the collapse of an earlier ceasefire agreement.
Asked about the prospects for negotiations aboard Air Force One, Trump said: “I have a lot of patience… We’ll see what happens. I think there are good chances that something could happen.”
The U.S. president also highlighted Washington’s military capabilities, saying: “We have a lot of ammunition,” while adding that he would like to have more resources due to U.S. support for Ukraine.
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said Trump was allowing diplomatic efforts more time, explaining that the president was “giving some space to the talks” while maintaining that Washington remains prepared to take action if necessary.
Meanwhile, tensions continue in other areas of the Middle East. Saudi Arabia reported that it intercepted drones launched from Iraq by groups allied with Tehran and urged the Iraqi government to take measures to prevent further attacks.
International
Police Investigate After Remains of Five Newborns Found in French Apartment
French authorities have opened a murder investigation after the discovery of human remains believed to belong to five newborn babies inside an apartment in the historic center of a city, the local prosecutor’s office reported Monday night.
According to prosecutors, a 32-year-old woman had given birth at home on Sunday to a healthy baby before being taken to a hospital for medical care.
The discovery was made after the woman’s 32-year-old partner began searching the residence after reportedly learning, once again and at a late stage, that she had been pregnant.
During the search, the man found what appeared to be human remains and informed the hospital, which then alerted prosecutors.
A forensic doctor determined that the remains likely belonged to five newborn infants. Authorities have not yet established the circumstances or motive behind the case.
Investigators have not been able to interview the mother, who remains hospitalized following the delivery.
Prosecutors also confirmed that the couple has two other children, aged eight and nine years old. The investigation remains ongoing as authorities work to clarify the events surrounding the discovery.
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