International
Tough choices as Brazil’s Lula gets down to business
| By AFP | Marcelo Silva De Sousa
Fresh off a celebratory beach holiday, Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got down to uglier business Monday: figuring out how to govern with a hostile Congress, nasty budget crunch and impossible-looking to-do list.
The political horse-trading of the transition period now starts in earnest for the veteran leftist, who will be sworn in for a third term on January 1, facing a far tougher outlook than the commodities-fueled boom he presided over in the 2000s.
Lula, 77, celebrated his narrow win over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff election by escaping last week to the sun-drenched coast of Bahia in northeastern Brazil.
He joked he needed a belated honeymoon with his first-lady-to-be, Rosangela “Janja” da Silva, whom the twice-widowed ex-metalworker married in May.
His other honeymoon — the political one — could be short, analysts say.
Lula is meeting Monday with advisers in Sao Paulo. On Tuesday, he will travel to the capital, Brasilia, to finish assembling his 50-member transition team and start negotiating with members of Congress, two allies told AFP.
He faces a battle to get bills passed in a legislature where conservatives scored big gains in October’s elections.
Lula’s coalition has around 123 votes in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and 27 in the 81-seat Senate, meaning he will have to strike alliances to get anything done — and even just survive, given the threat of impeachment in Brazil, where two presidents have been impeached in the past 30 years.
Into the shark tank
Lula is expected to meet in Brasilia with lower-house speaker Arthur Lira, a key Bolsonaro ally from the loose coalition of parties known as the “Centrao,” a group known for striking alliances with whoever is in power — in exchange for feeding on the federal pork barrel.
Lula will be under pressure from the Centrao not to oppose the so-called “secret budget”: 19.4 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in basically unmonitored federal funding that Bolsonaro agreed to allocate to select lawmakers to boost support for his reelection bid.
Meanwhile, money will be tight for Lula’s campaign promises, including increasing the minimum wage and maintaining a beefed-up 600-reais-per-month welfare program, “Auxilio Brasil.”
Bolsonaro, who introduced the program, did not allocate sufficient funding to continue it in the 2023 budget.
“We can’t start 2023 without the ‘Auxilio’ and a real increase in the minimum wage,” the leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, said Friday.
“That’s our contract with the Brazilian people.”
Facing the impossible math of funding such pledges without breaking the government spending cap, Lula’s allies are exploring their options, including passing a constitutional amendment allowing exceptional spending next year.
But they are racing the clock: it would have to be approved by December 15.
Markets watching
Lula, who ran on vague promises of restoring Latin America’s biggest economy to the golden times of his first two terms (2003-2010), faces a bleaker picture this time around.
“The challenge is… how to balance fiscal responsibility with a highly anticipated social agenda,” in the face of high inflation and a possible global recession, said political scientist Leandro Consentino of Insper university.
Markets are watching closely — especially his pick for finance minister.
Lula is expected to split Bolsonaro’s economy “super-ministry” into three portfolios: finance, planning, and trade and industry.
Analysts predict a political choice for finance minister, a technocrat for planning and a business executive for trade.
Names floated for the finance job include Lula’s former education minister Fernando Haddad and his campaign coordinator, Aloizio Mercadante.
COP27 stage
Other closely watched portfolios are the environment and a promised new ministry of Indigenous affairs — both sore spots under Bolsonaro, who presided over a surge of destruction in the Amazon rainforest.
The former job could go to Lula’s one-time environment minister Marina Silva, credited with curbing deforestation in the 2000s.
In a key gesture, the president-elect will make his return to the international stage at the COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt, where he will arrive on November 14, advisers said.
Silva, who will travel with him, told newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo: “The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level.”
International
Trump says GOP ‘learned a lot’ after democratic election wins
U.S. President Donald Trump said that he and the Republican Party “learned a lot” from the Democratic victories in Tuesday’s state and local elections. He also compared Democrats to “kamikaze pilots” over the ongoing budget standoff.
Speaking at an event with Republican senators on Wednesday, Trump described the results as an unexpected setback.
“These were very Democratic areas, but I don’t think it was good for Republicans. In fact, I don’t think it was good for anyone. But we had an interesting night and we learned a lot,” he said during remarks broadcast by the White House.
Trump agreed with pollsters that two key factors led to Republican losses in New York’s mayoral race and the gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia.
International
Bolivia’s Jeanine Áñez freed after Supreme Court annuls her conviction
Former Bolivian interim president Jeanine Áñez was released from a women’s prison in La Paz on Thursday, where she had spent more than four and a half years for an alleged coup, after her conviction was annulled, AFP journalists confirmed.
Dozens of supporters and family members gathered outside the facility to celebrate her release. Áñez left the prison waving a Bolivian flag around 15:00 GMT.
“It is comforting to see that justice will once again prevail in Bolivia. She was the only woman who took on the role with bravery and courage,” said Lizeth Maure, a 46-year-old nurse who had come to show her support.
Áñez, a 58-year-old lawyer and conservative politician, governed Bolivia for nearly a year until November 2020, when she handed power to leftist leader Luis Arce.
She was arrested in 2021 and sentenced the following year to 10 years in prison for “resolutions contrary to the Constitution,” accused of illegally assuming the presidency after Evo Morales resigned in 2019 amid social unrest.
Her sentence was overturned on Wednesday by the Supreme Court of Justice, Bolivia’s highest judicial authority.
The court ruled that Áñez should have been subjected to a “trial of responsibilities” before Congress— a constitutional process reserved for sitting presidents, vice presidents, ministers, and top judges — rather than prosecuted in an ordinary criminal court.
As she was welcomed by relatives and supporters upon release, Áñez declared:
“I feel the satisfaction of having fulfilled my duty to my country, of never having bowed down. And I will never regret having served Bolivia when it needed me.”
International
Peru declares Mexico’s president Persona Non Grata over political asylum dispute
Peru’s Congress declared Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum persona non grata on Thursday, accusing her of “unacceptable interference in internal affairs” after granting political asylum to former Peruvian Prime Minister Betssy Chávez.
The motion, introduced by right-wing parties, passed with 63 votes in favor, 33 against, and two abstentions. Lawmakers argue that Sheinbaum has maintained a hostile stance toward Peru since taking office.
Peru severed diplomatic relations with Mexico on Monday following the asylum decision. Chávez, who is facing charges for her alleged involvement in former President Pedro Castillo’s failed coup attempt in December 2022, remains under protection at the Mexican embassy residence in Lima.
Following the diplomatic break, interim President José Jerí said on X that Mexico’s chargé d’affaires in Peru, Karla Ornela, has been notified by the foreign ministry that she must leave the country within a strict deadline.
The Mexican government condemned Lima’s decision as “excessive and disproportionate,” asserting that offering asylum to Chávez is a legitimate act grounded in international law and does not constitute interference in Peru’s domestic matters.
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