International

Brazil runoff: 3 key factors

Photo: Evaristo Sa / AFP

| By AFP | Héctor Velasco |

Charisma and campaign strategy won’t be the only things in play when Brazil’s far-right President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist challenger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva face off in a polarizing runoff election Sunday.

Here are three key factors analysts say will determine the outcome.

Rejection

Millions of Brazilians hate Bolsonaro, Lula or both — and that rejection vote will play a decisive role, analysts say.

Four years ago, Bolsonaro ran as an outsider, tapping widespread outrage with an economic crisis and massive corruption scandals under the Workers’ Party (PT), which governed Brazil for 13 years — first under Lula (2003-2010), then Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016), who was ultimately impeached.

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Now, with Brazil deeply divided over Bolsonaro’s hardline conservatism, Covid-19 denialism and vitriolic style, the former army captain has plenty of haters of his own.

“Brazilian politics has two negationist forces: ‘anti-PTism’ and ‘anti-Bolsonarism.’ And that will decide the election,” says Mayra Goulart, a political scientist at Rio de Janeiro Federal University.

Turnout

Around 32 million Brazilians didn’t vote in the first-round election on October 2 — more than five times the six million votes that separated Lula (48 percent) from Bolsonaro (43 percent).

“Turnout will be key” in the runoff, says political scientist Oliver Stuenkel of the Getulio Vargas Foundation.

Poor voters, a group that leans heavily toward Lula, are particularly susceptible to stay home, especially if they lack transportation.

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In theory, voting is mandatory in Brazil. But the fine for failing to comply — 3.5 reais, or a little more than 50 US cents — costs less than round-trip bus fare.

“The more voters stay home, the worse it will be for Lula,” says Stuenkel.

It’s the economy, stupid?

Latin America’s biggest economy is crawling slowly out of its pandemic hole.

Unemployment has fallen from a pandemic high of 14.5 percent to 8.7 percent last quarter, and economic growth is expected to come in at 2.8 percent this year.

But 9.5 million workers are unemployed, 33 million people are living in hunger, and prices remain painfully high for most — though inflation has started to fall.

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“The economy, high inflation… unemployment exacerbated by the pandemic, all contributed to many families’ dismay” with Bolsonaro, says sociologist Paulo Baia.

Lula, who is remembered for an economic boom and social programs that helped lift 30 million people from poverty, is leaning heavily on that legacy.

Bolsonaro is meanwhile counting on jacked-up welfare payments to the poor, fuel-price cuts and tentative signs of better times ahead to win over voters.

Ultimately, the economy may not be the decisive issue, though.

Stuenkel says it could be eclipsed by Brazil’s culture wars and favorite Bolsonaro themes like “family, Christianity and tradition.”

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“If (Lula) wins, that will show voters’ main concern is the economy,” he says.

“If Bolsonaro wins, it will show social conservatism is seen as the most important issue.”

International

Paris prosecutors alert U.S. over alleged deepfake strategy linked to Elon Musk

The Paris Prosecutor’s Office said on Saturday that it had alerted authorities in the United States over suspicions that tech entrepreneur Elon Musk may have encouraged the spread of sexualized deepfake content on the social platform X to artificially boost the company’s valuation.

According to prosecutors, the controversy surrounding explicit AI-generated videos—reportedly linked to Grok, the platform’s artificial intelligence system—may have been deliberately triggered to increase the market value of X and X AI.

The office added that the alleged strategy could be tied to the planned June 2026 public listing of a new entity formed through the merger of SpaceX and X AI.

French authorities said they contacted the U.S. Department of Justice as well as legal representatives at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) earlier this week to share their concerns.

Responding on X in French to a report about the case, Musk referred to French prosecutors using an offensive term.

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When contacted, X’s legal representative in France did not immediately comment.

Grok, the platform’s AI system, has its own account on X, allowing users to interact with it or request content generation. For a period, users were able to tag the bot in posts to generate or edit images, a feature that may have facilitated the spread of such material.

International

Netanyahu vows to target Iran’s leadership after missile strikes in southern Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed on Sunday to target Iran’s leadership directly, escalating rhetoric amid ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran.

Speaking during a visit to the southern city of Arad, which was struck by an Iranian missile a day earlier, Netanyahu said Israel would intensify its response against Tehran.

“We are going after the regime. We are going after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, that gang of criminals,” he told reporters while standing among the debris left by the தாக்க.

He added that Israel intends to strike “personally” at Iran’s leadership, as well as its facilities and economic assets.

In addition to Arad, Iranian missiles also hit the city of Dimona on Saturday. The area is widely believed to host Israel’s undeclared nuclear facilities. The strike caused significant damage following a direct impact.

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Netanyahu also visited Dimona, where he urged residents to strictly follow military instructions and seek shelter whenever warning sirens are activated.

“The entire nation is a front line, and the home front is also a front line. And when we are on the front line, we follow these instructions,” he said.

International

US panel backs Trump-themed coin amid controversy

The United States Department of the Treasury confirmed to AFP that the Commission of Fine Arts approved the design of a new collectible coin featuring Donald Trump, with members of the commission appointed by the current administration.

According to the proposal, the coin will feature an image of Trump standing with clenched fists over a desk on the obverse, while the reverse will display an eagle, a traditional symbol of the United States.

The sale price of the collectible has not yet been disclosed, although the United States Mint typically offers similar items for more than $1,000.

“There is no more iconic portrait for the front of these coins than that of our president Donald Trump,” U.S. Treasurer Brandon Beach said in a statement sent to AFP. He added that two additional coins — a $1 piece and a one-ounce gold coin — are also under consideration.

However, the Citizens Coinage Advisory Committee (CCAC), another body responsible for reviewing new coin proposals, declined to discuss the Trump design in late February.

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“Only nations governed by kings or dictators place the image of a sitting leader on their currency,” said Donald Scarinciat the time. “No country in the world has minted coins featuring a democratically elected leader during their term in office,” he added.

When contacted by AFP, the Treasury Department did not immediately respond to requests for further comment.