International
What could happen if Putin used nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
AFP | by Sylvie LANTEAUME and Paul HANDLEY
President Vladimir Putin’s threat to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine if Russian “territorial integrity” is threatened has sparked deep discussion in the West as to how it would respond.
“Those who are trying to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the wind can also turn in their direction,” Putin said, adding: “This is not a bluff.”
However analysts aren’t convinced the Russian president is willing to be the first to unleash nuclear weapons since the US bombed Japan in 1945.
AFP spoke with several experts and officials about the possible scenarios that could arise should Russia carry out a nuclear attack.
What would a Russian nuclear attack look like?
Analysts say Moscow would likely deploy one or more “tactical” or battlefield nuclear bombs.
These are small weapons, ranging from 0.3 kilotons to 100 kilotons of explosive power, compared to the 1.2 megatons of the largest US strategic warhead or the 58 megaton bomb Russia tested in 1961.
Tactical bombs are designed to have a limited impact on the battlefield, compared to strategic nuclear weapons which are designed to fight and win all-out wars.
But “small” and “limited” are relative: The atom bomb the US dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 to devastating effect was just 15 kilotons.
What would Moscow target?
Analysts say Russia’s goal in using a tactical nuclear bomb in Ukraine would be to frighten it into surrender or submission to negotiations, and to divide the country’s Western backers.
Mark Cancian, a military expert with the CSIS International Security Program in Washington, said Russia would not likely use nuclear weapons on the front lines.
Capturing 20 miles (32 kilometers) of territory could require 20 small nuclear bombs — small gains for the huge risks of introducing nuclear weapons and nuclear fallout.
“Just using one will not be enough,” Cancian said.
Moscow could instead send a strong message and avoid significant casualties by detonating a nuclear bomb over water, or exploding one high over Ukraine to generate an electromagnetic pulse that would knock out electronic equipment.
Or Putin could opt for greater destruction and death: attacking a Ukraine military base, or hitting an urban center like Kyiv, generating mass casualties and possibly killing the country’s political leadership.
Such scenarios “would likely be designed to split the NATO alliance and global consensus against Putin,” Jon Wolfsthal, a former white House nuclear policy expert, wrote Friday on Substack.
But “it is unclear if it would succeed, and could just as easily be seen as desperation as resolve,” he said.
Should the West respond with nukes?
The West has remained ambiguous on how it would respond to a tactical nuclear strike, and the choices are complicated.
The United States and NATO do not want to appear weak in front of an implicit nuclear threat.
But they also would want to avoid the possibility that the war in Ukraine — not a NATO member — could escalate into a much broader, devastating global nuclear war.
Experts say the West would have no option but to respond, and that a response should come from NATO as a group, rather than the United States alone.
Any response should “ensure both that Putin’s military situation did not improve from such a strike, and that his political, economic and personal position suffered as a result,” said Wolfsthal.
The United States has positioned about 100 of its own tactical nuclear weapons in NATO countries and could respond in kind against Russian forces.
That would demonstrate resolve and remind Moscow of the danger of its actions, according to Matthew Kroenig of the Atlantic Council.
However, he said, “it might also provoke a Russian nuclear reprisal, raising the risk of a larger nuclear exchange and further humanitarian disaster.”
Another risk is that some NATO members might reject a nuclear response, serving Putin’s aims of weakening the alliance.
Give Ukraine the ability to attack Russia?
Answering a Russian nuclear attack in a more conventional military or diplomatic way, and supplying Ukraine with more lethal arms to attack Russia, could be more effective, experts say.
“Russian nuclear use might provide an opening to convince countries that have so far been reluctant — such as India and possibly even China — to participate in escalating sanctions,” said Kroenig.
In addition, the United States could offer Ukraine NATO aircraft, Patriot and THAAD anti-missile batteries, and ATACMS long-range missiles that could be used by Ukraine forces to strike deep inside Russia.
“Whatever restrictions we have on Ukraine forces — and I think we have some restrictions — I think we take all of those off,” said Cancian.
International
Florida officials warn against raw milk after dozens sickened
Unprocessed milk from a farm in Florida has sickened at least 21 people, prompting state authorities to issue a public health alert, U.S. media reported Monday.
The 21 cases include six children under the age of 10, all diagnosed with infections caused by E. coli and Campylobacterbacteria linked to raw milk from the farm in the southeastern U.S. state. Local authorities have also warned about the dangers of drinking unpasteurized milk.
Seven people have been hospitalized, two of whom have suffered complications, according to multiple reports.
The Florida Department of Health has urged the public to avoid raw milk consumption and blamed the outbreak on the farm involved—without naming it directly—citing poor sanitary practices.
Florida law prohibits the sale of unprocessed milk for human consumption, although it can be sold if labeled for pets. Pasteurization, which involves heating milk to kill harmful bacteria, is required under U.S. federal regulations for any dairy products sold across states.
Despite these regulations, sales of raw milk have been increasing in recent years, fueled by online promotion from wellness influencers and advocates of unprocessed foods.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warn that raw milk can contain potentially deadly bacteria such as E. coli, Campylobacter, Listeria, or Salmonella, which can cause symptoms ranging from diarrhea, vomiting, and indigestion to severe complications like kidney failure.
International
Massive wildfire in Southern France kills one, injures nine
Hundreds of firefighters battled on Wednesday to contain a massive wildfire in southern France that has left one person dead and nine others injured.
The blaze, which broke out Tuesday in the Aude department, is the largest recorded in France during the current summer season. Authorities have deployed 1,800 firefighters in an effort to bring it under control.
An elderly woman died in her home in the town of Saint-Laurent-de-la-Cabrerisse, while two others were injured—one in serious condition due to burns—according to the local prefecture. Seven firefighters suffered smoke inhalation injuries, and one person remains missing. The wildfire has already scorched an estimated 12,000 hectares of land.
“The fire is spreading very quickly due to unfavorable weather conditions. This is one of the driest areas of the department, and strong winds are fueling the flames,” said Lucie Roesch, secretary general of the Aude prefecture. Rémi Recio, subprefect for the city of Narbonne, added, “The fire is still spreading and is far from being contained or under control.”
The A9 motorway, which runs along the Mediterranean coast between France and Spain, has been closed in both directions between Narbonne and Perpignan, along with numerous secondary roads.
In Saint-Laurent-de-la-Cabrerisse, the smell of smoke lingers over the charred hectares. A helicopter was seen drawing water from the river below the village and dropping it several kilometers away, AFP reporters observed.
A campsite and at least one village were partially evacuated, with 25 houses and around 35 vehicles damaged, according to a preliminary assessment.
French Prime Minister François Bayrou announced he will visit the affected area on Wednesday.
International
Japan marks 80 years since Hiroshima bombing with call for nuclear disarmament
Japan observed a minute of silence on Wednesday to mark the 80th anniversary of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima, a solemn reminder to the world of the horror it unleashed, amid heightened tensions between nuclear powers the United States and Russia.
At exactly 8:15 a.m. local time (23:15 GMT), the moment when the U.S. bomber Enola Gay dropped the “Little Boy” atomic bomb on August 6, 1945, the city paused to remember.
The bombing claimed an estimated 140,000 lives, not only from the devastating blast and fireball but also from the deadly radiation that followed. Three days later, another bomb dropped on Nagasaki killed 74,000 more. Japan’s surrender on August 15 marked the end of World War II.
On a sweltering morning, hundreds of students, survivors, and officials dressed in black laid flowers at the Hiroshima Peace Memorial. The city’s mayor, Kazumi Matsui, warned of “an accelerating trend toward military buildup worldwide,” citing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing war in the Middle East.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that Japan has a mission “to take the lead toward a world without nuclear weapons.”
Today, Hiroshima is a thriving metropolis of 1.2 million people, yet the skeletal remains of one building still stand at its center as a powerful reminder of the tragedy.
Wednesday’s ceremony was attended by representatives from around 120 countries and regions, including delegates from Taiwan and Palestine for the first time.
Among the attendees was 96-year-old Yoshie Yokoyama, who arrived in a wheelchair accompanied by her grandson. She told reporters that her parents and grandparents were victims of the bombing.
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