International
What could happen if Putin used nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
AFP | by Sylvie LANTEAUME and Paul HANDLEY
President Vladimir Putin’s threat to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine if Russian “territorial integrity” is threatened has sparked deep discussion in the West as to how it would respond.
“Those who are trying to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the wind can also turn in their direction,” Putin said, adding: “This is not a bluff.”
However analysts aren’t convinced the Russian president is willing to be the first to unleash nuclear weapons since the US bombed Japan in 1945.
AFP spoke with several experts and officials about the possible scenarios that could arise should Russia carry out a nuclear attack.
What would a Russian nuclear attack look like?
Analysts say Moscow would likely deploy one or more “tactical” or battlefield nuclear bombs.
These are small weapons, ranging from 0.3 kilotons to 100 kilotons of explosive power, compared to the 1.2 megatons of the largest US strategic warhead or the 58 megaton bomb Russia tested in 1961.
Tactical bombs are designed to have a limited impact on the battlefield, compared to strategic nuclear weapons which are designed to fight and win all-out wars.
But “small” and “limited” are relative: The atom bomb the US dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 to devastating effect was just 15 kilotons.
What would Moscow target?
Analysts say Russia’s goal in using a tactical nuclear bomb in Ukraine would be to frighten it into surrender or submission to negotiations, and to divide the country’s Western backers.
Mark Cancian, a military expert with the CSIS International Security Program in Washington, said Russia would not likely use nuclear weapons on the front lines.
Capturing 20 miles (32 kilometers) of territory could require 20 small nuclear bombs — small gains for the huge risks of introducing nuclear weapons and nuclear fallout.
“Just using one will not be enough,” Cancian said.
Moscow could instead send a strong message and avoid significant casualties by detonating a nuclear bomb over water, or exploding one high over Ukraine to generate an electromagnetic pulse that would knock out electronic equipment.
Or Putin could opt for greater destruction and death: attacking a Ukraine military base, or hitting an urban center like Kyiv, generating mass casualties and possibly killing the country’s political leadership.
Such scenarios “would likely be designed to split the NATO alliance and global consensus against Putin,” Jon Wolfsthal, a former white House nuclear policy expert, wrote Friday on Substack.
But “it is unclear if it would succeed, and could just as easily be seen as desperation as resolve,” he said.
Should the West respond with nukes?
The West has remained ambiguous on how it would respond to a tactical nuclear strike, and the choices are complicated.
The United States and NATO do not want to appear weak in front of an implicit nuclear threat.
But they also would want to avoid the possibility that the war in Ukraine — not a NATO member — could escalate into a much broader, devastating global nuclear war.
Experts say the West would have no option but to respond, and that a response should come from NATO as a group, rather than the United States alone.
Any response should “ensure both that Putin’s military situation did not improve from such a strike, and that his political, economic and personal position suffered as a result,” said Wolfsthal.
The United States has positioned about 100 of its own tactical nuclear weapons in NATO countries and could respond in kind against Russian forces.
That would demonstrate resolve and remind Moscow of the danger of its actions, according to Matthew Kroenig of the Atlantic Council.
However, he said, “it might also provoke a Russian nuclear reprisal, raising the risk of a larger nuclear exchange and further humanitarian disaster.”
Another risk is that some NATO members might reject a nuclear response, serving Putin’s aims of weakening the alliance.
Give Ukraine the ability to attack Russia?
Answering a Russian nuclear attack in a more conventional military or diplomatic way, and supplying Ukraine with more lethal arms to attack Russia, could be more effective, experts say.
“Russian nuclear use might provide an opening to convince countries that have so far been reluctant — such as India and possibly even China — to participate in escalating sanctions,” said Kroenig.
In addition, the United States could offer Ukraine NATO aircraft, Patriot and THAAD anti-missile batteries, and ATACMS long-range missiles that could be used by Ukraine forces to strike deep inside Russia.
“Whatever restrictions we have on Ukraine forces — and I think we have some restrictions — I think we take all of those off,” said Cancian.
International
Geert Wilders reaches a provisional agreement to form a government in the Netherlands
International
Diana Boluarte goes to a new interrogation of the Attorney General for the ‘Rolex case’
International
The filmmaker Rasoulof will go to the Cannes Film Festival after fleeing Iran, according to his lawyer
Geert Wilders reaches a provisional agreement to form a government in the Netherlands
Diana Boluarte goes to a new interrogation of the Attorney General for the ‘Rolex case’
The filmmaker Rasoulof will go to the Cannes Film Festival after fleeing Iran, according to his lawyer
Tec de Monterrey honors one of its students for his contribution to nanotechnology in medicine
Defense Minister commends salvadoran soldier for Central American Cross Country victory
Ecuador prison riot leaves at least 43 dead
-
International5 days agoPetro calls former President Duque a “terrorist” for the “murder” of young people in protests
-
International3 days agoFirst recipient of genetically modified pig kidney dies two months post-transplant
-
International5 days agoMIT students protest again despite reprisals from the center and Biden’s accusation
-
International4 days ago14 of the injured left by a train crash in Buenos Aires are still interned
-
International5 days agoFormer Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori, diagnosed with a new malignant tumor
-
International5 days agoAn aurora borealis is visible tonight from much of Spain
-
International5 days ago‘No to animal abuse’, the clamor of a march of dogs and humans in Bolivia
-
International4 days agoDuque sees “despair” and “insecurity” in Petro’s attitude and proposes a “democratic debate”
-
International4 days agoDeath toll from storms in southern Brazil rise to 137
-
International4 days agoHaitian armed gangs mobilize before the arrival of the multinational force
-
International3 days agoDonald Trump faces former lawyer in court over Stormy Daniels payments
-
International5 days agoThe Emir of Kuwait dissolves Parliament and suspends some clauses of the Constitution
-
International2 days agoFormer presidents condemn Maduro’s “disrespect” of asylum for opponents in Venezuela
-
International2 days agoThe UN confirms that a worker died in Gaza from a projectile that hit his vehicle
-
International1 day agoAt least 4 dead and 64 injured when a fence collapsed over a gas station in India
-
International2 days agoCommissions of the Argentine Senate resume debate on key law for Javier Milei
-
International4 days agoThe UN says it works with the de facto Afghan Government to assist in floods
-
International2 days agoTrump, portrayed by his former lawyer: Fixation for silencing porn actress and reluctant to pay
-
International2 days agoThe mother who decided to walk 1,300 kilometers in Chile to get an expensive medicine and save her son from a serious illness
-
International1 day agoPutin prepares for a long war with a change of defense minister
-
International2 days agoA Mexican-American artist denounces the deportations with a mural on the border
-
International1 day agoIsrael’s offensive is based on Yabalia and the Army orders the evacuation of more areas of Rafah
-
International1 day agoDefinitive green light in the EU to extend the suspension of tariffs on Ukraine for one more year
-
International4 days agoThe FARC dissident ‘Iván Márquez’ reappears in a video after being presumed dead
-
International1 day agoDeath toll from floods in southern Brazil rise to 148
-
International1 day agoTrump prioritized silence of Stormy Daniels “for the campaign, not for Melania,” according to his former lawyer
-
International1 day agoDesolation at the Mexican border in the face of the new restrictions on asylum in the United States
-
International1 day agoLópez Obrador denies that there will be more migrants deported to Mexico due to restrictions in the United States
-
International2 hours agoBlinken announces in Kiev another $2 billion in military funding to Ukraine
-
International2 hours agoSingapore closes the Lee era with the investiture of Lawrence Wong as prime minister
-
International2 hours agoRobert Fico, Slovak Prime Minister, in serious condition after being shot