International
Analyst León Valencia: The ELN subordinated peace to its plan to seize the border
Analyst León Valencia, director of the Peace and Reconciliation Foundation (Pares), states in an interview with EFE that the guerrilla of the National Liberation Army (ELN) “subordinated” the peace negotiations with the Government to a plan to seize the Colombian-Venezuelan border.
“They subordinated peace to their strategy of seizing the border. Really what they have shown at this time is that their main objective is to have control of that border, grow on that border and be the master of the border between Colombia and Venezuela,” says Valencia, who in his youth was a member of the ELN.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro announced on January 17 the suspension of peace talks with the ELN, which he accused of committing “war crimes” in the Catatumbo region, where a confrontation between that guerrilla and the Front 33 of the FARC dissidents has left at least 56 dead and more than 54,000 displaced since January 16.
In that sense, the director of Pares, who analyzes everything that happens with the ELN in the book ‘Is lead what’s coming?’ (Penguin Randon House), considers that the fact that the guerrillas are facing another “armed left” group and not the Military Forces claims that “their main idea is to seize that border, fighting against the other illegals”.
The analyst, one of the greatest experts on the Colombian armed conflict, believes that the guerrilla has offered itself as “a support force” to the Chavista leader Nicolás Maduro “in the event of a foreign aggression” on Venezuela.
Valencia says that the guerrillas allied with the Venezuelan Government in 2019 to “sweep the paramilitaries” that were at the border, a successful operation because at that time, according to Pares figures, there were 27 armed groups there and only a few remain.
However, something that the ELN did not count on, in Valencia’s opinion, is that Petro did not cut off relations with Maduro after his questioned possession on January 10, which has led both countries to work together to face guerrilla violence on the common border of 2,219 kilometers.
“That is a little out of place for them, (they thought that Petro) was going to break relations with Venezuela and that Maduro was going to face (the President of the United States, Donald) Trump very hard and that Trump was also going to act immediately against Venezuela. Now the thing is temporarily very strange,” he says.
The main bet of the Petro Government was the policy of ‘Total Peace’, with which it sought to negotiate an agreement with the ELN and FARC dissidents, as well as the submission to justice of the main criminal gangs in the country.
However, with 18 months to go until the end of his mandate, the most advanced negotiation was that of the ELN and the president’s proposal seems to be shipwrecked.
In Valencia’s opinion, it is difficult to understand why the guerrillas are not signing peace with the first left-wing government in Colombia, although he believes that Petro was wrong to think that “ideology” and having “a similar speech” was going to be enough to disarm the ELN.
“The conflict changed radically, which is what we say in our book ‘Is lead what’s coming?’. We make an X-ray of the change in the conflict of some guerrillas who threatened the State and wanted to take central power and who are no longer in that now,” he explains.
Neither the ELN nor the FARC dissidents seek, as they intended before, to take power, but now “they are on the borders, in the regions, occupying territories, controlling the population, attacking the population, they are in something else”.
“There is a turn of the conflict and the ELN is in it. He gave up the seizure of power and is more in a task that they call resistance, they declare it publicly (…) It is a resistance of the ‘global south’, which is a series of groups and countries that have ideas of revolution, that have autocratic governments and are in something else,” says Valencia.
In this context, the director of Pares warns that the Military Forces and the Police must make a “very big operational change.”
“The intelligence that was made to look for where the ELN comes from, where the FARC come from to attack the State is no longer useful. Where do these groups go to seize a border, a region, how do they attack the population? It is another type of intelligence and it is what the State is not doing,” Valencia concludes.
International
WHO warns of increased disease outbreak risk in Venezuela amid low vaccination coverage
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned of an increased risk of disease outbreaks in Venezuela, including vaccine-preventable illnesses, due to low immunization coverage across the country.
“The vaccination coverage in Venezuela, particularly against measles and other diseases, was already low, so the risk of measles cases and other illnesses is currently high,” said Ciro Ugarte, director for emergencies at the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), the WHO’s regional office.
Speaking during a video conference with journalists, Ugarte said the risk is especially high in shelters, where overcrowding could significantly accelerate the transmission of infectious diseases.
He also highlighted water quality as an additional concern in the aftermath of the disaster, noting that safe drinking water is not guaranteed in the most affected areas.
“Unfortunately, supply is scarce, making it very difficult to assess conditions in all shelters. That is why evaluating the quality of water provided to the population, especially in large shelters, is a priority,” he said during a briefing in Geneva.
Ugarte suggested that targeted vaccination campaigns could be deployed against mosquito-borne and other vector-transmitted diseases, particularly in overcrowded shelters and in areas where people remain displaced.
According to PAHO, eight health facilities have been assessed so far, all of which require assistance, with three reporting structural damage.
He also stressed that the José María Vargas Hospital, one of Caracas’s major public reference hospitals, requires urgent support due to critical conditions. The facility is currently treating 96 patients in an eight-bed unit, while its blood bank is operating at extremely low levels.
In La Guaira, the Rafael Medina Jiménez Hospital has reduced its capacity from 108 to 35 beds. Additionally, 22 other health centers have reported severe shortages, underscoring the strain on Venezuela’s healthcare system.
International
María Corina Machado’s attempted return to Venezuela reportedly halted amid US political concerns
The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly pressured Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado and disrupted her planned return to Venezuela following recent earthquakes, amid concerns over a potential political crisis, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Sources familiar with the matter told the newspaper that a private jet carrying Machado from the United States to Curaçao was ordered to turn back last week after U.S. officials concluded she intended to continue onward to Venezuelan territory, effectively reversing her earlier departure route from December.
The opposition figure had reportedly spent months preparing to re-enter Venezuela in an effort to renew pressure for new elections, following the detention of then-president Nicolás Maduro under an order issued by Trump. The U.S. president has since stated that Washington’s relationship with Venezuela’s acting leadership, headed by Delcy Rodríguez, is “excellent.”
According to The Wall Street Journal, intermediaries close to the White House warned Machado that proceeding with her return plan could jeopardize her support from Trump and undermine broader U.S. strategy toward Venezuela, potentially delaying electoral plans.
Despite these warnings, Machado reportedly attempted a second route back through Panama. However, Copa Airlines declined to transport her to Venezuela, citing concerns over possible retaliation from Caracas against the airline, according to unnamed sources.
From Panama City, Machado stated on Monday that the Venezuelan government had closed commercial airspace to prevent her return, calling it “urgent” to go back to the country to “face this catastrophe together,” without addressing reports of U.S. pressure.
Axios reported that Trump administration officials viewed Machado’s attempted return as “grotesque political opportunism” in the aftermath of recent earthquakes that have left at least 2,595 people dead and thousands injured, while also delaying reconstruction efforts and potential electoral processes.
Since Maduro’s detention on January 3, President Trump has reportedly expressed support for Rodríguez, the former vice president, who has agreed to trade, mining, and oil agreements demanded by Washington. Trump has described Venezuela as effectively operating under U.S. oversight and has claimed the country is improving economically through increased oil production and exports.
Venezuelan opposition groups based in the United States have urged the Trump administration to reconsider its relationship with Rodríguez and criticized Washington’s stated satisfaction with reconstruction efforts following the June 24 earthquakes.
International
Rush for Air Conditioners Sparks Tensions at French Supermarkets Ahead of New Heatwave
Scenes of long lines, overcrowded stores and customer disputes unfolded across France on Thursday as shoppers rushed to buy air conditioners and fans ahead of another expected heatwave.
The buying frenzy comes as the country continues to recover from last week’s extreme temperatures, which exceeded 40°C (104°F) in several areas and produced the warmest night on record, with an average temperature of 22°C (71.6°F). Authorities have linked the heatwave to at least 1,000 excess deaths.
Demand for cooling appliances has surged in recent days, prompting heavy traffic at appliance retailers. The situation intensified on Thursday when German discount supermarket chain Lidl launched a promotion on portable air conditioners and electric fans.
Videos shared on social media showed large crowds gathering outside stores, with customers pushing and rushing to secure the discounted products.
“Lidl France regrets the incidents that occurred in its stores,” the company told AFP, adding that employees were forced to manage tense situations in what it described as a challenging environment.
Outside a Lidl store in northwestern Paris, dozens of customers began lining up as early as 7:00 a.m., two hours before opening, while police monitored the crowd, according to an AFP journalist at the scene.
Although many shoppers remained in good spirits, tensions escalated as some people attempted to cut in line. “I will not open the store until they leave,” a store manager reportedly shouted as frustrated customers protested.
The situation worsened after customers discovered that the store, located in a working-class district of Paris, had only two air conditioning units available for sale.
One of the successful buyers, Lassana, who declined to provide his last name, said he had queued since 4:00 a.m. to secure one of the units.
Another customer, 69-year-old Fatou, was only able to purchase a small fan after what he described as a struggle. He criticized Lidl’s advertising as “misleading,” claiming police had temporarily closed access to the store because of the crowds.
Lidl France attributed the shortages to its fixed annual purchasing cycle, explaining that the promotional products had been ordered a year in advance and were offered at predetermined prices, limiting the available stock.
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