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Analyst León Valencia: The ELN subordinated peace to its plan to seize the border

Analyst León Valencia, director of the Peace and Reconciliation Foundation (Pares), states in an interview with EFE that the guerrilla of the National Liberation Army (ELN) “subordinated” the peace negotiations with the Government to a plan to seize the Colombian-Venezuelan border.

“They subordinated peace to their strategy of seizing the border. Really what they have shown at this time is that their main objective is to have control of that border, grow on that border and be the master of the border between Colombia and Venezuela,” says Valencia, who in his youth was a member of the ELN.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro announced on January 17 the suspension of peace talks with the ELN, which he accused of committing “war crimes” in the Catatumbo region, where a confrontation between that guerrilla and the Front 33 of the FARC dissidents has left at least 56 dead and more than 54,000 displaced since January 16.

In that sense, the director of Pares, who analyzes everything that happens with the ELN in the book ‘Is lead what’s coming?’ (Penguin Randon House), considers that the fact that the guerrillas are facing another “armed left” group and not the Military Forces claims that “their main idea is to seize that border, fighting against the other illegals”.

The analyst, one of the greatest experts on the Colombian armed conflict, believes that the guerrilla has offered itself as “a support force” to the Chavista leader Nicolás Maduro “in the event of a foreign aggression” on Venezuela.

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Valencia says that the guerrillas allied with the Venezuelan Government in 2019 to “sweep the paramilitaries” that were at the border, a successful operation because at that time, according to Pares figures, there were 27 armed groups there and only a few remain.

However, something that the ELN did not count on, in Valencia’s opinion, is that Petro did not cut off relations with Maduro after his questioned possession on January 10, which has led both countries to work together to face guerrilla violence on the common border of 2,219 kilometers.

“That is a little out of place for them, (they thought that Petro) was going to break relations with Venezuela and that Maduro was going to face (the President of the United States, Donald) Trump very hard and that Trump was also going to act immediately against Venezuela. Now the thing is temporarily very strange,” he says.

The main bet of the Petro Government was the policy of ‘Total Peace’, with which it sought to negotiate an agreement with the ELN and FARC dissidents, as well as the submission to justice of the main criminal gangs in the country.

However, with 18 months to go until the end of his mandate, the most advanced negotiation was that of the ELN and the president’s proposal seems to be shipwrecked.

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In Valencia’s opinion, it is difficult to understand why the guerrillas are not signing peace with the first left-wing government in Colombia, although he believes that Petro was wrong to think that “ideology” and having “a similar speech” was going to be enough to disarm the ELN.

“The conflict changed radically, which is what we say in our book ‘Is lead what’s coming?’. We make an X-ray of the change in the conflict of some guerrillas who threatened the State and wanted to take central power and who are no longer in that now,” he explains.

Neither the ELN nor the FARC dissidents seek, as they intended before, to take power, but now “they are on the borders, in the regions, occupying territories, controlling the population, attacking the population, they are in something else”.

“There is a turn of the conflict and the ELN is in it. He gave up the seizure of power and is more in a task that they call resistance, they declare it publicly (…) It is a resistance of the ‘global south’, which is a series of groups and countries that have ideas of revolution, that have autocratic governments and are in something else,” says Valencia.

In this context, the director of Pares warns that the Military Forces and the Police must make a “very big operational change.”

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“The intelligence that was made to look for where the ELN comes from, where the FARC come from to attack the State is no longer useful. Where do these groups go to seize a border, a region, how do they attack the population? It is another type of intelligence and it is what the State is not doing,” Valencia concludes.

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International

Trump Orders Construction of New ‘Golden Fleet’ to Revitalize U.S. Naval Superiority

President Donald Trump issued an executive order this Monday for the immediate construction of two new warships that will bear his name. These vessels will be the pioneers of what he described as the “Golden Fleet,” a future generation of “Trump-class” battleships that he claimed would be “100 times more powerful” than those currently in service.

The announcement took place at his private residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida. The President indicated that following the initial two ships, the administration aims to commission up to 25 additional vessels. He is scheduled to meet with Florida-based contractors next week to expedite production, criticizing existing defense firms for failing to deliver results efficiently.

This naval expansion is a cornerstone of Trump’s goal to revitalized the American shipbuilding industry and address the strategic gap between the U.S. and competitors like China.

The move comes amid heightened geopolitical tension. Just last week, Trump ordered the seizure of all sanctioned tankers involved with Venezuela’s “ghost fleet” to cripple the country’s crude oil industry. Since December 10, the U.S. military—deployed in the Caribbean under the guise of counter-narcotics operations—has already detained two tankers linked to Venezuelan oil transport.

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International

U.S. Judge Blocks ICE from Re-detaining Salvadoran Erroneously Deported Under Trump Administration

A U.S. federal judge ruled this Monday, December 22, that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is prohibited from re-detaining Salvadoran national Kilmar Ábrego García, who was erroneously deported to El Salvador earlier this year during the administration of President Donald Trump.

During a hearing in Maryland, U.S. District Judge Paula Xinis ruled that Ábrego García must remain free on bail through the Christmas holidays, concluding that his initial detention lacked a legal basis. The ruling follows a request from his legal team for a temporary restraining order to prevent ICE from carrying out a new arrest.

Earlier this month, on December 11, Judge Xinis ordered his release from a Pennsylvania migrant detention center after determining that the government had detained him without a formal deportation order. In 2019, an immigration judge had already ruled that Ábrego could not be returned to El Salvador because his life was in danger.

Despite that protection, Ábrego García was deported in March 2025 following a raid by the Trump administration. Officials argued at the time that he was a gang member, and he was sent directly to the Center for the Confinement of Terrorism (CECOT) in El Salvador. In June, he was returned to the United States to face a new trial for alleged human smuggling—a charge he denies.

On Monday, Judge Xinis also temporarily invalidated a new deportation order issued by an immigration judge following Ábrego’s recent release, granting him legal protection through the coming weeks. His trial is scheduled to begin in Tennessee in January 2026.

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Fire at substation triggers major blackout in San Francisco

The U.S. city of San Francisco was plunged into darkness Saturday night after a power outage left about 130,000 customers without electricity, although the utility company said service was restored to most users within hours.

Pacific Gas & Electric Company (PG&E) said in a statement posted on X that nearly 90,000 homes had their power restored by 9:00 p.m. local time (05:00 GMT on Sunday), while the remaining 40,000 customers were expected to have service restored overnight.

Large areas of the city, a major technology hub with a population of around 800,000, were affected by the blackout, which disrupted public transportation and left traffic lights out of service during the busy weekend before Christmas, a crucial period for retail businesses.

“I know it’s been a difficult day,” San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie said in a video posted on social media from the city’s emergency operations center. “There has been progress, but for those still without power, we want to make sure they are safe and checking in on their neighbors,” he added.

Lurie said police officers and firefighters advised residents to stay home as much as possible. He also noted that officers and traffic inspectors were deployed to manage intersections where traffic lights were not functioning.

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The mayor confirmed that the outage was caused by a fire at an electrical substation. Parts of the city were also covered in fog, further complicating conditions during the incident.

As a result of the blackout, many businesses were forced to close despite it being the weekend before Christmas. The sudden drop in shopper traffic ahead of the holiday is “devastating” for retailers, the manager of home goods store Black & Gold told the San Francisco Chronicle.

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