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Terrorism, prisoners and the Vatican: autopsy of the agreement between the US and Cuba that was born dead

The agreement, mediated by the Vatican, between the United States and Cuba lasted just six days by which Washington took the island off the terrorist list in exchange for a massive release of prisoners in the country.

In the avalanche of executive orders signed by Republican Donald Trump in his early hours in the Oval Office was the one who immediately returned to Cuba to the list of countries sponsoring terrorism, a measure with serious financial consequences.

The decision had been anticipated by the new Secretary of State, the Cuban-American Marco Rubio, in favor of the hard line with the Cuban government.

In his confirmation appearance before the Senate, Rubio said that he had “zero doubts” that Cuba was a country promoting terrorism and said that the decisions of the Biden Administration did not link those of the new Republican cabinet at all.

For his part, the President of Cuba, Miguel Díaz-Canel, called the revocation of one of the last decisions of Democrat Joe Biden just six days later as “mockery”.

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In his opinion, it is an “act of arrogance” by Trump who despises “the truth” and only seeks to strengthen “the cruel economic war against Cuba for domination.”

What the Cuban government has not yet pronounced on is whether it will comply with its part of the deal, since it agreed with the Vatican. Officially, Havana has never linked the list and the release: only Washington has agreed.

So far and according to the human rights NGOs on the island that count prisoners for political reasons -Justicia 11J, the Cuban Observatory of Human Rights (OCDH) and Prisoners Defenders-, about 150 prisoners had been released from prison until Monday thanks to this trilateral understanding.

However, there is also an undetermined number of common inmates who have benefited from this measure.

The Cuban government had announced the release of 553 people “sanctioned for various crimes,” but has not made public a list of names and has not updated in recent days on the total number of graces. Last Thursday he talked about 127.

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Among those released registered by NGOs, young men without a previous activist history who participated in the anti-government protests of July 11, 2021 – the largest in decades – and who have officially been on probation (without the extinction of sentence) predominate.

Among the beneficiaries there are also historical opponents, such as Félix Navarro and José Daniel Ferrer, and activists such as Pedro Albert Sánchez, Luis Robles and the lady of Blanco Tania Echeverría.

However, many prisoners considered political are still in prison, including some with international recognition such as the artists and activists Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara and Maykel Osorbo, qualified as prisoners of conscience by Amnesty International.

Most are unknown to the international audience. Prisoners Defenders registered a total of 1,161 prisoners for political reasons in Cuba at the end of 2024. Justice 11J figures the sentenced 11J demonstrators at 549.

The future of these imprisoned people is now uncertain, as well as that of Cuba as a whole with the arrival of Trump.

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The island was already immersed in a serious economic and energy crisis, with shortages of food, medicine and fuel, prolonged daily blackouts and inflation that has tripled prices since 2021.

The country’s difficulties in stabilizing its economy, securing basic products and growing again – its gross domestic product (GDP) is below 2019 levels – could be further aggravated by a US Administration openly against it.

In fact, the current situation in the country is due to the consequences of COVID-19 and several failed economic and monetary policies implemented by Havana, but also to the tightening of US sanctions during Trump’s first term (2017-2021).

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International

U.S. and Mexico Reach Deal to Address Water Deficit Under 1944 Treaty

The United States and Mexico have reached an agreement to comply with current water obligations affecting U.S. farmers and ranchers and for Mexico to cover its water deficit to Texas under the 1944 Water Treaty, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a statement.

The department уточified that the agreement applies to both the current cycle and the water deficit from the previous cycle.

On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump accused Mexico of failing to comply with the water-sharing treaty between the two countries, which requires the United States to deliver 1.85 billion cubic meters of water from the Colorado River, while Mexico must supply 432 million cubic meters from the Rio Grande.

Mexico is behind on its commitments. According to Washington, the country has accumulated a deficit of more than one billion cubic meters of water over the past five years.

“This violation is severely harming our beautiful crops and our livestock in Texas,” Trump wrote on Monday.

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The Department of Agriculture said on Friday that Mexico had agreed to supply 250 million cubic meters of water starting next week and to work toward closing the shortfall.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, quoted in the statement, said Mexico delivered more water in a single year than it had over the previous four years combined.

Trump has said that if Mexico continues to fall short of its obligations, the United States reserves the right to impose 5% tariffs on imported Mexican products.

Mexico’s Deputy Foreign Minister for North America, Roberto Velasco, said that a severe drought in 2022 and 2023prevented the country from meeting its commitments.

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International

Several people shot in attack on Brown University campus

Several people were shot on Saturday in an attack on the campus of Brown University, in the northeastern United States, local police reported.

“Shelter in place and avoid the area until further notice,” the Providence Police Department urged in a post on X. Brown University is located in Providence, the capital of the state of Rhode Island.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on his social media platform Truth Social that he had been briefed on the situation and that the FBI was on the scene.

At 5:52 p.m. local time (11:52 p.m. GMT), Brown University said the situation was still “ongoing” and instructed students to remain sheltered until further notice.

After initially stating that the suspect had been taken into custody, Trump later posted a second message clarifying that local police had walked back that information. “The suspect has NOT been apprehended,” the U.S. president said.

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Colombia says it would not reject Maduro asylum request as regional tensions escalate

The Colombian government stated on Thursday that it would have no reason to reject a potential asylum request from Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro should he leave office, as regional tensions persist over the deployment of U.S. military forces in the Caribbean since August.

“In the current climate of tension, negotiations are necessary, and if the United States demands a transition or political change, that is something to be assessed. If such a transition results in him (Maduro) needing to live elsewhere or seek protection, Colombia would have no reason to deny it,” said Colombian Foreign Minister Rosa Villavicencio in an interview with Caracol Radio.
However, Villavicencio noted that it is unlikely Maduro would choose Colombia as a refuge. “I believe he would opt for someplace more distant and calmer,” she added.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro also commented on Venezuela’s situation on Wednesday, arguing that the country needs a “democratic revolution” rather than “inefficient repression.” His remarks followed the recent detention and passport cancellation of Cardinal Baltazar Porras at the Caracas airport.

“The Maduro government must understand that responding to external aggression requires more than military preparations; it requires a democratic revolution. A country is defended with more democracy, not more inefficient repression,” Petro wrote on X (formerly Twitter), in a rare public criticism of the Venezuelan leader.

Petro also called for a general amnesty for political opponents and reiterated his call for forming a broad transitional government to address Venezuela’s prolonged crisis.

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Since September, U.S. military forces have destroyed more than 20 vessels allegedly carrying drugs in Caribbean and Pacific waters near Venezuela and Colombia, resulting in over 80 deaths.
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned that attacks “inside Venezuela” will begin “soon,” while Maduro has urged Venezuelans to prepare for what he describes as an impending external aggression.

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