Argentina has a lot to lose in financial and commercial terms, especially in the agricultural sector, if Donald Trump, once he returns to the White House, complies with his protectionist threats, a real stone in the shoe for the objectives of the ultra-liberal Javier Milei.
Trump’s idea of imposing tariffs on imports of products from China, Mexico and Canada could unleash global effects that would hit Argentine exports at a time when its economy is bidding to get out of the recession.
Without sufficient monetary reserves, Argentina needs a greater flow of investments and a significant increase in its exports, two ways for foreign exchange income that could be seriously affected if Trump complies with his threats when he settles back in the White House on January 20.
The president-elect of the United States has announced a 25% surcharge on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada, as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products, which would not only have economic consequences for those three countries.
An acceleration of the recession
“If Donald Trump finally puts tariffs on imports, it would have several effects for Argentina as a result of the global recession, the negative impact on demand by China and a reduction in commodity prices (raw materials or commodities),” Lisandro Mogliati, an Argentine consultant in international business and foreign trade expert, told EFE.
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The specialist explained that, if there is a tariff increase, there will be an acceleration of the recession worldwide due to the contraction of trade and an excess of global supply.
“In addition, the direct impact that China could suffer would contribute to the slowdown of its economy, which is one of the main markets for the raw materials that Argentina exports,” said Mogliati.
He added that this scenario could also “bring a drop in the price of agricultural raw materials, which is the main source of foreign exchange income from exports of Argentina,” one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of grains and derivatives.
The dilemma facing Argentina because of Trump
The shadows that loom over global trade with the threat of Trump – who had already adopted protectionist measures during his first administration (2017-2021) – come at a time when Argentina faces a dilemma.
On the one hand, it urgently needs to encourage its exports to enter foreign currency and have ‘oxygen’ to start its batten economy.
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On the other hand, Milei has progressively opened imports, not only for ideological reasons – he is a declared enemy of protectionism – but for economic reasons: it seeks to lower high inflation with the import of cheaper products than those produced in Argentina, even at the cost of reducing the trade surplus.
According to official data, Brazil, China and the United States are, in that order, the largest export destinations for Argentina and, in turn, the main markets of origin of their imports.
With a tense global trade, it is likely that competition between countries will be sharpened in the race to try to place surplus goods, and there Argentina, which lacks competitiveness, could have problems.
According to Mogliati, there would be a greater supply of Chinese products that, given the barriers in the United States, would look for alternative markets and “the same could happen with products from Mexico,” a food-producing country, such as Argentina.
Trump and Milei
If Trump raises tariffs and the prices of imported products in the United States become more expensive, the Federal Reserve of that country could raise interest rates to contain inflation, which would also affect Argentina financially.
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“That would imply that many of the funds would return to U.S. Treasury bonds to the detriment, for example, of bonds and other assets from emerging countries, such as Argentina,” Mogliati said.
Milei bets that his alignment with Washington in foreign policy and his close personal link with Trump will help him get new credits from the International Monetary Fund, increase bilateral trade and reach a free trade agreement with the United States.
But for Mogliati it is unlikely that trade opportunities with the United States will improve with a Trump who promises to protect the production of his country, whose agricultural sector is one of the main global competitors for the powerful Argentine agricultural sector.
“In addition, if Trump is thinking of leaving the free trade agreements to manage himself autonomously with the imposition of tariffs, I do not see it feasible that he can reach an agreement with the Argentine Government,” said the expert.
Chuck Schumer Unveils Proposal to Strengthen Oversight of the U.S. Presidency
U.S. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer on Thursday announced legislation to establish a federal anti-corruption office aimed at strengthening oversight of the executive branch and preventing future presidents from using the White House for personal financial gain.
Schumer said the proposal was prompted by what he described as President Donald Trump’s misuse of the presidencyto benefit his family’s business interests.
“In just 18 months, the Trump family has made more than $4 billion by exploiting the influence of the presidency,” Schumer alleged.
The New York senator also argued that the alleged corruption has had direct economic consequences for American households.
“The same corrupt practices Trump is using to pocket billions of dollars are also forcing Americans to pay, on average, $3,100 more each year because of the rising cost of living,” he said.
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The legislation was introduced alongside Democratic Senators Alex Padilla, Jeff Merkley, and Andy Kim.
According to Schumer, the bill has two primary objectives: “First, to return money to the American people. Second, to ensure that no one can ever steal from them again.”
He added that the proposal would create legal mechanisms allowing citizens to seek the recovery of funds allegedly obtained through government corruption.
“The fact that Trump stole money from the American people does not make it his. Americans deserve to get that money back,” Schumer said.
Under the proposed legislation, any U.S. citizen—as well as state attorneys general acting on behalf of their residents—would be authorized to file civil lawsuits to recover funds allegedly acquired through corrupt practices by public officials.
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“Our bill would empower any individual, including a state attorney general acting on behalf of the people of that state, to bring legal action to recover money stolen from the public through government corruption,” Schumer said.
The measure is expected to face debate in Congress, where Republicans and Democrats remain deeply divided over executive accountability and the scope of presidential powers.
Trump Administration Urges Latin America to Increase Defense Spending Against Organized Crime
The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday urged Latin American countries to increase investment in defense and security to strengthen the fight against organized crime and drug trafficking networks.
The appeal was made by Elbridge Colby, the U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, in an article published by Americas Quarterly. Colby argued that governments across the region should assume greater responsibility for protecting their territories from transnational criminal organizations.
“It is essential that our neighbors in the region invest more in their own defense and security. There is no reason why any country, especially those facing significant narco-terrorist threats, should spend so little on defense,” Colby wrote.
The Pentagon official described it as “absurd” that some Latin American nations allocate less than 1% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to defense, although he did not identify the countries. He contrasted that with NATO members in Europe, many of which are increasing defense expenditures to 3.5% of GDP, with an additional 1.5% devoted to security-related investments.
Colby, who participated earlier this month in the Conference of Defense Ministers of the Americas in Cusco, Peru, said there is “a historic opportunity” for the United States and its regional partners to strengthen cooperation against drug trafficking and other transnational threats.
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He also defended the proposed Shield of the Americas, a military partnership promoted by the Trump administration to combat organized crime and supported by several conservative governments in the region. The initiative does not include Brazil or Mexico.
In addition, Colby said the administration’s security strategy includes an updated interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine, the long-standing U.S. foreign policy principle that historically viewed Latin America as part of Washington’s sphere of influence.
“Of course, we recognize that the Monroe Doctrine is controversial in many circles. But it is also frequently misunderstood,” he said.
According to Colby, the United States is not seeking “exploitation, subordination or dependence,” but rather a region characterized by greater prosperity, stability and security.
He also stated that Washington is prepared to use “all available resources,” including the U.S. Armed Forces, to combat drug trafficking and irregular migration. Colby highlighted ongoing counternarcotics operations in the Caribbean, despite criticism from human rights organizations that have questioned some missions over allegations of extrajudicial killings in international waters.
FAO and WFP Seek $42 Million to Prepare Southern Africa for Unprecedented El Niño
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) on Thursday appealed for $42 million to help vulnerable communities in southern Africa prepare for what is expected to be an unprecedented El Niño event.
The funding will enable humanitarian agencies to protect millions of people before worsening weather conditions severely affect agricultural production across the region.
Following a meeting with partners in Maputo, Mozambique, the two UN agencies said they still need to secure $42 million of the $54 million required to assist 2.3 million people in Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe.
In a joint statement, FAO and WFP said the appeal marks the first time the two organizations have launched a large-scale, forward-looking call for anticipatory action, warning that insufficient funding could push the region’s most vulnerable families into a major food security crisis.
“The period before the main planting season is critical for taking action,” said José Luis Fernández, FAO Representative in Mozambique. He stressed that early intervention is both more effective and less costly than responding after crops have failed and productive assets have already been lost.
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“With timely and flexible financing, we can help farmers access appropriate seeds and agricultural inputs, protect livestock and water resources, and sustain food production before reduced rainfall causes irreversible damage,” Fernández said.
Claire Conan, WFP Representative in Mozambique, emphasized that acting before disasters strike is more efficient and cost-effective than responding after communities have lost their livelihoods. She added that the agency is working closely with the Mozambican government to translate climate forecasts into preventive measures aimed at reducing the impact of droughts and floods.
The planned interventions include supporting farmers, strengthening food production systems and protecting the food security of the region’s most vulnerable households, with the goal of reducing the risk of widespread hunger.
El Niño is a recurring climate phenomenon characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and changes in atmospheric circulation, disrupting weather patterns around the world. Its most recent episode, between 2023 and 2024, was associated with record global temperatures, severe droughts across southern Africa, Central America and northern South America, as well as destructive wildfires, torrential rainfall and widespread flooding.
