Argentina has a lot to lose in financial and commercial terms, especially in the agricultural sector, if Donald Trump, once he returns to the White House, complies with his protectionist threats, a real stone in the shoe for the objectives of the ultra-liberal Javier Milei.
Trump’s idea of imposing tariffs on imports of products from China, Mexico and Canada could unleash global effects that would hit Argentine exports at a time when its economy is bidding to get out of the recession.
Without sufficient monetary reserves, Argentina needs a greater flow of investments and a significant increase in its exports, two ways for foreign exchange income that could be seriously affected if Trump complies with his threats when he settles back in the White House on January 20.
The president-elect of the United States has announced a 25% surcharge on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada, as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products, which would not only have economic consequences for those three countries.
An acceleration of the recession
“If Donald Trump finally puts tariffs on imports, it would have several effects for Argentina as a result of the global recession, the negative impact on demand by China and a reduction in commodity prices (raw materials or commodities),” Lisandro Mogliati, an Argentine consultant in international business and foreign trade expert, told EFE.
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The specialist explained that, if there is a tariff increase, there will be an acceleration of the recession worldwide due to the contraction of trade and an excess of global supply.
“In addition, the direct impact that China could suffer would contribute to the slowdown of its economy, which is one of the main markets for the raw materials that Argentina exports,” said Mogliati.
He added that this scenario could also “bring a drop in the price of agricultural raw materials, which is the main source of foreign exchange income from exports of Argentina,” one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of grains and derivatives.
The dilemma facing Argentina because of Trump
The shadows that loom over global trade with the threat of Trump – who had already adopted protectionist measures during his first administration (2017-2021) – come at a time when Argentina faces a dilemma.
On the one hand, it urgently needs to encourage its exports to enter foreign currency and have ‘oxygen’ to start its batten economy.
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On the other hand, Milei has progressively opened imports, not only for ideological reasons – he is a declared enemy of protectionism – but for economic reasons: it seeks to lower high inflation with the import of cheaper products than those produced in Argentina, even at the cost of reducing the trade surplus.
According to official data, Brazil, China and the United States are, in that order, the largest export destinations for Argentina and, in turn, the main markets of origin of their imports.
With a tense global trade, it is likely that competition between countries will be sharpened in the race to try to place surplus goods, and there Argentina, which lacks competitiveness, could have problems.
According to Mogliati, there would be a greater supply of Chinese products that, given the barriers in the United States, would look for alternative markets and “the same could happen with products from Mexico,” a food-producing country, such as Argentina.
Trump and Milei
If Trump raises tariffs and the prices of imported products in the United States become more expensive, the Federal Reserve of that country could raise interest rates to contain inflation, which would also affect Argentina financially.
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“That would imply that many of the funds would return to U.S. Treasury bonds to the detriment, for example, of bonds and other assets from emerging countries, such as Argentina,” Mogliati said.
Milei bets that his alignment with Washington in foreign policy and his close personal link with Trump will help him get new credits from the International Monetary Fund, increase bilateral trade and reach a free trade agreement with the United States.
But for Mogliati it is unlikely that trade opportunities with the United States will improve with a Trump who promises to protect the production of his country, whose agricultural sector is one of the main global competitors for the powerful Argentine agricultural sector.
“In addition, if Trump is thinking of leaving the free trade agreements to manage himself autonomously with the imposition of tariffs, I do not see it feasible that he can reach an agreement with the Argentine Government,” said the expert.
Uribe requests freedom amid appeal of historic bribery conviction
Former Colombian President Álvaro Uribe on Monday requested that the Supreme Court restore his freedom while he appeals the historic 12-year house arrest sentence he received for bribery and procedural fraud.
Uribe, the most prominent figure of Colombia’s right wing, was convicted last week by a lower court for attempting to bribe paramilitary members into denying his ties to the violent anti-guerrilla squads.
Since Friday, the 73-year-old has been under house arrest at his residence in Rionegro, about 30 km from Medellín. The judge justified the measure by citing a risk of flight.
However, Uribe’s defense team rejected that argument and formally petitioned the court to immediately lift the detention order, claiming it lacks legal basis.
Uribe, a dominant force in Colombian politics for decades, is now the first former president in the country’s history to be convicted and placed under arrest, found guilty of witness tampering and obstruction of justice to prevent links to paramilitary groups.
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He has repeatedly denounced the trial as politically motivated, blaming pressure from the leftist government currently in power.
His political party, Centro Democrático, has called for nationwide protests on August 7 in support of Uribe, who remains popular for his hardline stance against guerrilla groups.
Uribe has until August 13 to submit his written appeal. The case will then move to the Bogotá High Court, which has until October 16 to uphold, overturn, or dismiss the sentence. If the deadline passes without a decision, the case will be archived.
U.S. Embassy staff restricted as gunfire erupts near compound in Port-au-Prince
The poorest country in Latin America and the Caribbean is currently engulfed in a deep political crisis and a wave of violence driven by armed groups — a situation that an international security mission led by Kenya is attempting to stabilize.
Due to the worsening security conditions, the U.S. government has suspended all official movements of embassy personnel outside the compound in Port-au-Prince, the U.S. State Department announced Monday in a security alert posted on social media platform X.
“There are intense gunfights in the Tabarre neighborhood, near the U.S. Embassy,” the alert reads, urging the public to avoid the area.
Tabarre is a municipality located near Port-au-Prince International Airport, northeast of the Haitian capital.
According to a July report by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 3,141 people were killed in Haitibetween January 1 and June 30 of this year.
Israel says 136 food aid boxes airdropped into Gaza by six nations
The Israeli military announced on Sunday that 136 boxes of food aid were airdropped into Gaza by the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Egypt, Germany, and Belgium.
“In recent hours, six countries conducted air drops of 136 aid packages containing food for residents in the southern and northern Gaza Strip,” read the statement, which added that the operation was coordinated by COGAT, the Israeli defense body overseeing civil affairs in the occupied Palestinian territories.
The Israeli military emphasized that they will “continue working to improve the humanitarian response alongside the international community” and reiterated their stance to “refute false allegations of deliberate famine in Gaza.”
The announcement comes as UN agencies warn Gaza faces an imminent risk of famine. More than one in three residents go days without eating, and other nutrition indicators have dropped to their worst levels since the conflict began.
The agencies also noted the difficulty of “collecting reliable data in current conditions, as Gaza’s health systems —already devastated by nearly three years of conflict— are collapsing.”
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Meanwhile, Gaza’s Hamas-run Health Ministry reported on Sunday that hospitals in the enclave recorded six deaths from hunger and malnutrition on Saturday, all of them adults.
