International

Argentina has a lot to lose with Donald Trump’s protectionist threat

Argentina has a lot to lose in financial and commercial terms, especially in the agricultural sector, if Donald Trump, once he returns to the White House, complies with his protectionist threats, a real stone in the shoe for the objectives of the ultra-liberal Javier Milei.

Trump’s idea of imposing tariffs on imports of products from China, Mexico and Canada could unleash global effects that would hit Argentine exports at a time when its economy is bidding to get out of the recession.

Without sufficient monetary reserves, Argentina needs a greater flow of investments and a significant increase in its exports, two ways for foreign exchange income that could be seriously affected if Trump complies with his threats when he settles back in the White House on January 20.

The president-elect of the United States has announced a 25% surcharge on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada, as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products, which would not only have economic consequences for those three countries.

An acceleration of the recession

“If Donald Trump finally puts tariffs on imports, it would have several effects for Argentina as a result of the global recession, the negative impact on demand by China and a reduction in commodity prices (raw materials or commodities),” Lisandro Mogliati, an Argentine consultant in international business and foreign trade expert, told EFE.

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The specialist explained that, if there is a tariff increase, there will be an acceleration of the recession worldwide due to the contraction of trade and an excess of global supply.

“In addition, the direct impact that China could suffer would contribute to the slowdown of its economy, which is one of the main markets for the raw materials that Argentina exports,” said Mogliati.

He added that this scenario could also “bring a drop in the price of agricultural raw materials, which is the main source of foreign exchange income from exports of Argentina,” one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of grains and derivatives.

The dilemma facing Argentina because of Trump

The shadows that loom over global trade with the threat of Trump – who had already adopted protectionist measures during his first administration (2017-2021) – come at a time when Argentina faces a dilemma.

On the one hand, it urgently needs to encourage its exports to enter foreign currency and have ‘oxygen’ to start its batten economy.

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On the other hand, Milei has progressively opened imports, not only for ideological reasons – he is a declared enemy of protectionism – but for economic reasons: it seeks to lower high inflation with the import of cheaper products than those produced in Argentina, even at the cost of reducing the trade surplus.

According to official data, Brazil, China and the United States are, in that order, the largest export destinations for Argentina and, in turn, the main markets of origin of their imports.

With a tense global trade, it is likely that competition between countries will be sharpened in the race to try to place surplus goods, and there Argentina, which lacks competitiveness, could have problems.

According to Mogliati, there would be a greater supply of Chinese products that, given the barriers in the United States, would look for alternative markets and “the same could happen with products from Mexico,” a food-producing country, such as Argentina.

Trump and Milei

If Trump raises tariffs and the prices of imported products in the United States become more expensive, the Federal Reserve of that country could raise interest rates to contain inflation, which would also affect Argentina financially.

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“That would imply that many of the funds would return to U.S. Treasury bonds to the detriment, for example, of bonds and other assets from emerging countries, such as Argentina,” Mogliati said.

Milei bets that his alignment with Washington in foreign policy and his close personal link with Trump will help him get new credits from the International Monetary Fund, increase bilateral trade and reach a free trade agreement with the United States.

But for Mogliati it is unlikely that trade opportunities with the United States will improve with a Trump who promises to protect the production of his country, whose agricultural sector is one of the main global competitors for the powerful Argentine agricultural sector.

“In addition, if Trump is thinking of leaving the free trade agreements to manage himself autonomously with the imposition of tariffs, I do not see it feasible that he can reach an agreement with the Argentine Government,” said the expert.

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International

Football Fan Killed in Clashes After Colombian League Match

Fans of Cúcuta Deportivo and their traditional rivals Atlético Bucaramanga clashed outside the stadium following their local league match on Tuesday, leaving one supporter dead and several others injured.

The deceased fan was stabbed, according to a senior police official in Cúcuta who confirmed the cause of death in a video statement. Local media reported that the victim was a supporter of the visiting team, Atlético Bucaramanga.

The match ended in a 2-2 draw. Authorities had banned the entry of Atlético Bucaramanga’s organized supporters into the stadium in an effort to prevent disturbances.

Despite the restrictions, violence broke out in the surrounding areas after the game. Among the injured were three police officers, an institutional source told AFP.

The incident adds to a series of recent violent episodes linked to Colombian football. The most recent occurred in December, when supporters of Atlético Nacional and Independiente Medellín clashed in the stands and on the pitch, leaving 59 people injured.

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International

Missing Spanish Sailor Rescued After 11 Days Adrift in Mediterranean

The man had departed from the port of Gandía, on Spain’s eastern coast, with the intention of reaching the southern Spanish town of Guardamar del Segura, a journey of about 150 kilometers, a spokesperson for Spain’s maritime rescue service told AFP.

Search boats and aircraft were deployed on January 17, but the operation was called off on January 22 after efforts proved unsuccessful. Alerts were then issued to vessels navigating the area in case they spotted any signs of the missing sailor.

As hopes were fading, a surveillance aircraft from the European Union’s border agency Frontex spotted the sailboat on Tuesday, along with a person signaling for help, approximately 53 nautical miles northeast of Bejaia, Algeria.

A nearby vessel, the Singapore-flagged bulk carrier Thor Confidence, carried out the rescue and is expected to bring the man to an end to his ordeal when it arrives on Thursday in the southern Spanish port city of Algeciras.

Maritime rescue services shared images on social media showing a small white sailboat drifting at sea and secured alongside the much larger ship.

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It remains unclear how the sailboat ended up hundreds of kilometers off its intended route or how the man managed to survive for so long alone in open waters.

International

Rubio Says U.S. Could Participate in Follow-Up Russia-Ukraine Talks

The United States could join a new round of talks this week aimed at ending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday.

Teams from Kyiv and Moscow met last Friday and Saturday in Abu Dhabi in their first publicly acknowledged direct negotiations to discuss the peace initiative promoted by former U.S. President Donald Trump.

“They are going to hold follow-up talks again this week,” Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “There could be U.S. participation.”

However, Rubio suggested that Washington’s role may be more limited than during last week’s discussions, which included Steve Witkoff, the president’s special envoy, and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law.

The secretary of state indicated that progress may have already been made on security guarantees for Ukraine, one of Kyiv’s key demands in any agreement with Moscow after nearly four years of Russian invasion.

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“There is one remaining issue that everyone is familiar with, and that is the territorial claim over Donetsk,” Rubio said, referring to the eastern Ukrainian region that Russia wants Ukraine to cede.

“I know that active efforts are underway to see whether the positions of both sides on this issue can be reconciled. It remains a bridge we have not yet crossed,” he added during the hearing.

Rubio acknowledged that the territorial question would be particularly difficult for Ukraine to resolve.