Argentina has a lot to lose in financial and commercial terms, especially in the agricultural sector, if Donald Trump, once he returns to the White House, complies with his protectionist threats, a real stone in the shoe for the objectives of the ultra-liberal Javier Milei.
Trump’s idea of imposing tariffs on imports of products from China, Mexico and Canada could unleash global effects that would hit Argentine exports at a time when its economy is bidding to get out of the recession.
Without sufficient monetary reserves, Argentina needs a greater flow of investments and a significant increase in its exports, two ways for foreign exchange income that could be seriously affected if Trump complies with his threats when he settles back in the White House on January 20.
The president-elect of the United States has announced a 25% surcharge on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada, as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products, which would not only have economic consequences for those three countries.
An acceleration of the recession
“If Donald Trump finally puts tariffs on imports, it would have several effects for Argentina as a result of the global recession, the negative impact on demand by China and a reduction in commodity prices (raw materials or commodities),” Lisandro Mogliati, an Argentine consultant in international business and foreign trade expert, told EFE.
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The specialist explained that, if there is a tariff increase, there will be an acceleration of the recession worldwide due to the contraction of trade and an excess of global supply.
“In addition, the direct impact that China could suffer would contribute to the slowdown of its economy, which is one of the main markets for the raw materials that Argentina exports,” said Mogliati.
He added that this scenario could also “bring a drop in the price of agricultural raw materials, which is the main source of foreign exchange income from exports of Argentina,” one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of grains and derivatives.
The dilemma facing Argentina because of Trump
The shadows that loom over global trade with the threat of Trump – who had already adopted protectionist measures during his first administration (2017-2021) – come at a time when Argentina faces a dilemma.
On the one hand, it urgently needs to encourage its exports to enter foreign currency and have ‘oxygen’ to start its batten economy.
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On the other hand, Milei has progressively opened imports, not only for ideological reasons – he is a declared enemy of protectionism – but for economic reasons: it seeks to lower high inflation with the import of cheaper products than those produced in Argentina, even at the cost of reducing the trade surplus.
According to official data, Brazil, China and the United States are, in that order, the largest export destinations for Argentina and, in turn, the main markets of origin of their imports.
With a tense global trade, it is likely that competition between countries will be sharpened in the race to try to place surplus goods, and there Argentina, which lacks competitiveness, could have problems.
According to Mogliati, there would be a greater supply of Chinese products that, given the barriers in the United States, would look for alternative markets and “the same could happen with products from Mexico,” a food-producing country, such as Argentina.
Trump and Milei
If Trump raises tariffs and the prices of imported products in the United States become more expensive, the Federal Reserve of that country could raise interest rates to contain inflation, which would also affect Argentina financially.
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“That would imply that many of the funds would return to U.S. Treasury bonds to the detriment, for example, of bonds and other assets from emerging countries, such as Argentina,” Mogliati said.
Milei bets that his alignment with Washington in foreign policy and his close personal link with Trump will help him get new credits from the International Monetary Fund, increase bilateral trade and reach a free trade agreement with the United States.
But for Mogliati it is unlikely that trade opportunities with the United States will improve with a Trump who promises to protect the production of his country, whose agricultural sector is one of the main global competitors for the powerful Argentine agricultural sector.
“In addition, if Trump is thinking of leaving the free trade agreements to manage himself autonomously with the imposition of tariffs, I do not see it feasible that he can reach an agreement with the Argentine Government,” said the expert.
Colombia says it would not reject Maduro asylum request as regional tensions escalate
The Colombian government stated on Thursday that it would have no reason to reject a potential asylum request from Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro should he leave office, as regional tensions persist over the deployment of U.S. military forces in the Caribbean since August.
“In the current climate of tension, negotiations are necessary, and if the United States demands a transition or political change, that is something to be assessed. If such a transition results in him (Maduro) needing to live elsewhere or seek protection, Colombia would have no reason to deny it,” said Colombian Foreign Minister Rosa Villavicencio in an interview with Caracol Radio. However, Villavicencio noted that it is unlikely Maduro would choose Colombia as a refuge. “I believe he would opt for someplace more distant and calmer,” she added.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro also commented on Venezuela’s situation on Wednesday, arguing that the country needs a “democratic revolution” rather than “inefficient repression.” His remarks followed the recent detention and passport cancellation of Cardinal Baltazar Porras at the Caracas airport.
“The Maduro government must understand that responding to external aggression requires more than military preparations; it requires a democratic revolution. A country is defended with more democracy, not more inefficient repression,” Petro wrote on X (formerly Twitter), in a rare public criticism of the Venezuelan leader.
Petro also called for a general amnesty for political opponents and reiterated his call for forming a broad transitional government to address Venezuela’s prolonged crisis.
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Since September, U.S. military forces have destroyed more than 20 vessels allegedly carrying drugs in Caribbean and Pacific waters near Venezuela and Colombia, resulting in over 80 deaths. U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned that attacks “inside Venezuela” will begin “soon,” while Maduro has urged Venezuelans to prepare for what he describes as an impending external aggression.
Cuba battles out-of-control dengue and chikungunya epidemic as death toll rises to 44
Cuba is facing a severe dengue and chikungunya epidemic that has already claimed at least 44 lives, including 29 minors, according to the Ministry of Public Health (Minsap). The outbreak—now considered out of control—has expanded across the entire country amid a critical shortage of resources to confront the emergency.
Authorities report more than 42,000 chikungunya infections and at least 26,000 dengue cases, though they acknowledge significant underreporting as many patients avoid seeking care in health centers where medicines, supplies, and medical personnel are scarce. The first cluster was detected in July in the city of Matanzas, but the government did not officially use the term “epidemic” until November 12.
Chikungunya—virtually unknown on the island until this year—causes high fever, rashes, fatigue, and severe joint pain that can last for months, leaving thousands temporarily incapacitated. Dengue, endemic to the region, triggers fever, muscle pain, vomiting, and, in severe cases, internal bleeding. Cuba currently has no vaccines available for either virus.
Minsap reports that of the 44 deaths recorded so far, 28 were caused by chikungunya and 16 by dengue.
The health crisis unfolds amid deep economic deterioration, marked by the absence of fumigation campaigns, uncollected garbage, and shortages of medical supplies—conditions that have fueled the spread of the Aedes aegypti mosquito, the primary vector for both diseases. “The healthcare system is overwhelmed,” non-official medical sources acknowledge.
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Beyond the health impact, the epidemic is heavily disrupting economic and family life. The intense joint pain caused by chikungunya has led to widespread work absences, while hospital overcrowding has forced relatives to leave their jobs to care for the sick. In November, authorities launched a clinical trial using the Cuban drug Jusvinza to reduce joint pain, though results have not yet been released.
Ecuador on track for record violence as homicides hit highest level in Latin America again
Violence in Ecuador is expected to reach historic levels by the end of 2025, with the country set to record the highest homicide rate in Latin America for the third consecutive year, according to a report released Thursday by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). The organization warns that criminal activity is not only persisting but could worsen in 2026.
Official figures show 7,553 homicides recorded through October, surpassing the 7,063 registered throughout all of 2024. ACLED estimates that 71% of the population was exposed to violent incidents this year, despite President Daniel Noboa’s declaration of an “internal armed conflict” in an attempt to confront powerful criminal groups.
According to the report, several factors are driving the deterioration of security: a territorial war between Los Chonerosand Los Lobos, the two most influential criminal organizations in the country; the fragmentation of other groups after the fall of their leaders; and Ecuador’s expanding role as a strategic hub for regional drug trafficking.
Since 2021, violence has forced the internal displacement of around 132,000 people, while more than 400,000 Ecuadorians — equivalent to 2% of the population — have left the country. Between January and November alone, violent deaths rose 42%, fueled by prison massacres and clashes between rival gangs.
The report warns that conditions may deteriorate further. Ecuador has been added to ACLED’s 2026 Conflict Watchlist, which highlights regions at risk of escalating violence. The expansion of Colombian armed groups such as FARC dissidents and the ELN, state weakness, and a potential rerouting of drug trafficking corridors from the Caribbean to the Pacific intensify the threat.
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“The president is facing a wave of violence that shows no signs of easing,” the report concludes.
