International

Keys to the political crisis in Germany: What will happen after the breakup of the coalition government?

The breakup of the coalition government in Germany opens the way to early elections once the head of government, the social democrat Olaf Scholz, does not overcome the motion of confidence scheduled for January 15, as expected.

These are the keys to the path established and detailed in the German Basic Law towards early elections, which will probably take place in the spring if the date of the motion of confidence is not advanced, as the opposition has already demanded.

– In accordance with article 68 of the Basic Law, the chancellor, as announced on Wednesday, will request a vote of confidence in the Bundestag on January 15, with the expectation that the Lower House will not give it to him and thus early elections will be called that the social democrat Scholz hopes will be favorable to him.

– The chancellor may then ask the president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, to dissolve the Bundestag and will have a maximum period of 21 days to do so.

Once Parliament is dissolved, new elections must be held within a maximum period of 60 days. In this case at the end of March or beginning of April.

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A government in office

– After the dissolution of the Bundestag, the chancellor and his ministers will continue to hold their respective positions in office.

The three portfolios occupied by the Liberals that are empty after the dismissal of the Minister of Finance, Christian Lindner, and the departure by his own decision of those of Justice, Marco Buschmann, and Education, Bettina Stark-Watzinger, could be assumed by other ministers, although the chancellor can propose different successors.

The fourth portfolio occupied by the liberals, that of Transport and Digital Affairs, will continue at the personal request of Scholz in the hands of Wolfgang Wissing, who announced that he is leaving his party so that his decision does not involve a burden.

– However, with the dissolution of the Bundestag and the call for new elections, political activity will be paralyzed, since the parties will immediately switch to campaign mode. This could be relevant to the 2025 federal budget if it is not approved, which is most likely.

Then the so-called provisional budgetary management would come into force and only from January it will be possible to incur expenses for which there is a legal obligation.

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The vote of confidence

– In the history of the Federal Republic, only four chancellors submitted to a vote of confidence, although only two of them sought, as the Basic Law intends with this option, to obtain the vote of confidence, while three others pursued precisely the opposite: not achieving a majority.

In 1982, Social Democratic Chancellor Helmut Schmidt submitted to a vote of confidence to calm a coalition crisis, although that same year he lost a motion of censure. In 2001, Social Democratic Chancellor Gerhard Schröder used the vote of confidence to secure the approval of the controversial deployment of the Bundeswehr – the armed forces – in Afghanistan.

On three occasions, however, the vote of confidence was a maneuver to pave the way for early elections: in 1972, by Social Democratic Chancellor Willi Brandt; in 1982 by Conservative Chancellor Helmut Kohl; and in 2005 by Schröder.

The first two managed to strengthen their coalitions with this maneuver, but in the case of Schröder, his party lost the elections in favor of the conservatives, who took over the government with Angela Merkel.

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International

Trump Floats “Friendly Takeover” of Cuba Amid Rising Tensions

U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday that his administration is considering what he described as a “friendly takeover” of Cuba, as Washington continues to increase pressure on the island’s communist government.

“The Cuban government is talking to us and they have very serious problems, as you know. They have no money, they have nothing at this moment, but they are talking to us and maybe we will see a friendly takeover of Cuba,” Trump told reporters as he departed the White House for a trip to Texas.

Earlier in the week, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Cuba needed a “radical change,” shortly after Washington eased restrictions on oil exports to the island for what officials described as “humanitarian reasons,” amid a deep economic crisis.

The United States has imposed an energy blockade on Cuba since January, citing what it calls an “extraordinary threat” posed by the communist-run island, located roughly 150 kilometers (90 miles) off the coast of Florida, to U.S. national security.

International

Argentina’s Senate Reviews Milei-Backed Labor Overhaul

Argentina’s Senate on Friday began reviewing the Labor Modernization Law promoted by the administration of President Javier Milei, a proposal that would significantly reshape labor rules across the country.

The upper chamber opened its final discussion of the contentious initiative, which revises the method used to calculate severance payments — lowering the amounts owed in dismissal cases — and introduces an “hour bank” mechanism that allows overtime to be offset with paid leave rather than extra wages.

The legislation also broadens the classification of essential services, a change that would place new limits on the right to strike in designated sectors.

The bill was initially approved by the Senate on February 11 and then moved to the Chamber of Deputies, where lawmakers passed it with amendments. It has now returned to the Senate for definitive approval.

Outside the Congress building in Buenos Aires, workers, trade unions and left-wing organizations staged demonstrations beginning at midday. The gathering later thinned out amid reports of disturbances and a strong police presence. Security forces had secured the area surrounding the legislature since early morning hours.

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Union leaders contend that the reform weakens labor protections, while many business representatives back the measure but stress that sustainable formal employment will require economic expansion, improved credit conditions, greater investment and a more dynamic domestic market.

International

Federal Judge Blocks Trump Policy Allowing Deportations to Third Countries

A federal judge ruled on Wednesday that the policy of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration allowing immigration authorities to deport foreign nationals to third countries without prior notice or the opportunity to object is unlawful. The decision marks another legal setback for the administration on immigration matters.

Judge Brian Murphy of the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts struck down the regulation issued last year, which stated that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) was not required to notify migrants if they were to be sent to countries other than the one listed in their removal order, provided that receiving nations offered assurances they would not face persecution or torture.

Murphy ordered the measure vacated but granted a 15-day delay before the ruling takes effect, giving the Trump administration time to file an appeal.

In his decision, the judge concluded that the policy violates federal immigration law and migrants’ due process rights. He also questioned the lack of transparency surrounding the alleged assurances provided by receiving countries, stating that “no one really knows anything about these supposed ‘assurances.’” He added, “It is not right, and it is not lawful.”

The ruling follows several legal disputes involving deportations to third countries. Last year, the executive branch deported more than 200 Salvadorans to a maximum-security prison in El Salvador, invoking an old wartime law. The White House also held talks with Costa Rica, Panama, and Rwanda about receiving migrants who are not citizens of those countries.

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In May, the same judge determined that the government violated a court order when it attempted to remove a group of immigrants with criminal records to South Sudan without prior notice or an opportunity to raise claims of fear of persecution.

Although President Donald Trump took the case to the U.S. Supreme Court, which temporarily allowed the deportations to resume while a final decision was pending, the White House is expected to again appeal to higher courts to overturn this latest judicial ruling.