International
Trump gains ground over Harris and the elections are emerging as the closest of the century
The Republican candidate for the White House, former President Donald Trump, has gained ground in the polls of his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, and the selections of November 5 are emerging as the closest of the last century in the United States.
Harris’ candidacy, who replaced President Joe Biden after he threw in the towel in July, initially aroused great enthusiasm that was transferred to the polls, but Trump has managed to pulverize that advantage when there are 16 days left until the elections.
According to the latest forecast of the FiveThiryEight portal based on the average of polls published nationally and in key states, Trump achieves a slight advantage over Harris and has a 52% chance of winning the November 5 elections.
Despite the fact that the Democrat leads the intention to vote at the national level, the Republican is more favored by the Electoral College, the system by which the states grant a certain number of electoral votes to the winning candidate.
Two weeks ago, the forecast of the same portal gave Harris a 58% chance to defeat Trump.
The difference between Harris and Trump
Although the Republican has gained ground in recent weeks, the situation is so tight that the chances of victory of each of the two candidates are practically equivalent to throwing a coin into the air.
The difference between Harris and Trump is less than two percentage points in the seven decisive states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) so that a small statistical error could alter the result.
In addition, at the national level, the vice president only takes two points ahead of the former president, a narrower difference than the margin between Biden and Trump on any of the days of the 2020 campaign.
After those elections, the Republican refused to accept his defeat and promoted the vote count in some key states and several litigations that were dismissed in court.
In 2000, the election result was up in the air until the Supreme Court gave the victory to Republican George W. Busch on the Democrat Al Gore in Florida, which was then a hinge state.
But according to the FiveThirtyEight portal, to find elections as close as what the polls draw, we have to go back to 1876, when the Republican Rutherford Hayes beat the Democrat Samuel Tilden by a single electoral vote: 185 against 184.
Every vote counts
In such a tight scenario, every vote counts and the two candidates are doubling their presence in the seven decisive states, where in some cases the early vote has already begun with a high turnout.
The rhetoric and the crossfire between the two has also intensified with attacks and insults.
Trump suggested this week that he would be willing to deploy the military against the “internal enemies” of the United States, in an apparent reference to his political rivals, while Harris described his rival as “fascist” and “deranted.”
The vice president has decided to raise the tone against Trump in an attempt to revitalize her campaign, to which former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton have also joined, and former first lady Michelle Obama to give her a new impetus.
The Republican is this Sunday in Pennsylvania, where he is expected to visit a McDonald’s and accuse Harris of having invented that he worked for that fast food chain as a young man.
For her part, the Democratic candidate, who turns 60 today, is in Georgia before traveling to Pennsylvania, where tomorrow she will campaign with Liz Cheney, a former Republican congressman facing Trump.
International
UK braces for potential CO₂ shortage amid Middle East tensions
The government of United Kingdom is preparing contingency measures amid fears of a potential shortage of carbon dioxide (CO₂), which could impact the agri-food industry if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, The Times reported on Thursday.
According to the newspaper, officials assessed this scenario during a recent crisis meeting aimed at evaluating the consequences of a prolonged conflict, triggered on February 28 by joint attacks from United States and Israel against Iran.
Under this scenario, CO₂ supplies—primarily a byproduct of fertilizer production using natural gas—could fall by up to 18%, affecting multiple sectors including agriculture and food production.
The gas is widely used in the slaughter of pigs and poultry, as well as in extending the shelf life of packaged foods. Breweries could also face disruptions due to reduced availability.
“I don’t want to comment on a leak, but now that the information is out there, I hope people feel reassured knowing we are working on it,” said Peter Kyle, Secretary of State for Business and Trade, in remarks to Sky News.
While a drop in CO₂ supply is not expected to cause major shortages in supermarkets, it could limit product variety, The Times noted, citing access to internal government documents.
To mitigate the impact, authorities are considering prioritizing CO₂ supply for critical sectors such as healthcare and civil nuclear energy, where it is used in cooling systems for blood reserves, organs, vaccines, and electricity generation. The government may also request domestic producers to increase output.
Central America
El Salvador and Paraguay approve 2026–2028 cooperation program
The governments of El Salvador and Paraguay approved the 2026–2028 Cooperation Program, which includes six joint development projects, according to Salvadoran Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Adriana Mira.
Mira stated that El Salvador will act as the “main provider of cooperation,” contributing five initiatives focused on road infrastructure, tourism, and local development. She also noted that one of the projects will be led by the Paraguayan side, although no further details were disclosed.
The agreement was reached during the Second Meeting of the Joint Commission on Technical and Scientific Cooperation between both countries.
According to Paraguay’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the First Meeting of the Political Consultation and Bilateral Coordination Mechanism was also held, with the participation of Vice Minister Víctor Verdún.
In an official statement, the Paraguayan government reported that both delegations agreed to identify mechanisms to promote competitiveness, economic growth, and market access. They also committed to signing agreements related to air transport cooperation.
International
Macron meets Machado, stresses need for democratic transition in Venezuela
Emmanuel Macron met on Monday at the Élysée Palace with Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, where they discussed the importance of advancing a democratic transition in Venezuela.
In a message shared on social media, Macron highlighted Machado’s commitment to freedom and stressed the need to achieve a transition that is peaceful and respects the will of the Venezuelan people.
“I received María Corina Machado, Nobel Peace Prize laureate. Together, we discussed her commitment to freedom and the importance of achieving a democratic, peaceful transition in Venezuela that respects the will of its people,” he wrote.
For her part, Machado expressed her “deep gratitude” to Macron and to France for their support of democracy and freedom in Venezuela.
“We have gone through a long and painful journey, and we are now very close to freedom. Venezuela will become a nation of free and equal men and women—prosperous, safe, and united,” she said.
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