International
Trump gains ground over Harris and the elections are emerging as the closest of the century
The Republican candidate for the White House, former President Donald Trump, has gained ground in the polls of his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, and the selections of November 5 are emerging as the closest of the last century in the United States.
Harris’ candidacy, who replaced President Joe Biden after he threw in the towel in July, initially aroused great enthusiasm that was transferred to the polls, but Trump has managed to pulverize that advantage when there are 16 days left until the elections.
According to the latest forecast of the FiveThiryEight portal based on the average of polls published nationally and in key states, Trump achieves a slight advantage over Harris and has a 52% chance of winning the November 5 elections.
Despite the fact that the Democrat leads the intention to vote at the national level, the Republican is more favored by the Electoral College, the system by which the states grant a certain number of electoral votes to the winning candidate.
Two weeks ago, the forecast of the same portal gave Harris a 58% chance to defeat Trump.
The difference between Harris and Trump
Although the Republican has gained ground in recent weeks, the situation is so tight that the chances of victory of each of the two candidates are practically equivalent to throwing a coin into the air.
The difference between Harris and Trump is less than two percentage points in the seven decisive states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) so that a small statistical error could alter the result.
In addition, at the national level, the vice president only takes two points ahead of the former president, a narrower difference than the margin between Biden and Trump on any of the days of the 2020 campaign.
After those elections, the Republican refused to accept his defeat and promoted the vote count in some key states and several litigations that were dismissed in court.
In 2000, the election result was up in the air until the Supreme Court gave the victory to Republican George W. Busch on the Democrat Al Gore in Florida, which was then a hinge state.
But according to the FiveThirtyEight portal, to find elections as close as what the polls draw, we have to go back to 1876, when the Republican Rutherford Hayes beat the Democrat Samuel Tilden by a single electoral vote: 185 against 184.
Every vote counts
In such a tight scenario, every vote counts and the two candidates are doubling their presence in the seven decisive states, where in some cases the early vote has already begun with a high turnout.
The rhetoric and the crossfire between the two has also intensified with attacks and insults.
Trump suggested this week that he would be willing to deploy the military against the “internal enemies” of the United States, in an apparent reference to his political rivals, while Harris described his rival as “fascist” and “deranted.”
The vice president has decided to raise the tone against Trump in an attempt to revitalize her campaign, to which former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton have also joined, and former first lady Michelle Obama to give her a new impetus.
The Republican is this Sunday in Pennsylvania, where he is expected to visit a McDonald’s and accuse Harris of having invented that he worked for that fast food chain as a young man.
For her part, the Democratic candidate, who turns 60 today, is in Georgia before traveling to Pennsylvania, where tomorrow she will campaign with Liz Cheney, a former Republican congressman facing Trump.
Central America
Argentina Falls to Lowest Rating in Global Workers’ Rights Index Under Milei Administration
Argentina and Panama have joined Ecuador among the world’s 10 worst countries for workers’ rights, according to a report released Monday by the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC).
The three Latin American nations appear alongside Belarus, Egypt, Eswatini, Myanmar, Nigeria, Tunisia and Turkey in the latest edition of the Global Rights Index, which evaluates the protection of labor rights around the world.
According to the ITUC, Argentina entered the list this year after being downgraded to Category 5, marking its second consecutive year of declining ratings.
“Argentina joins the list of the 10 worst countries for workers this year after falling to Category 5, following a second consecutive year of deterioration in its rating,” the organization stated.
The report argues that working conditions and the environment for trade unions have become increasingly restrictive under the administration of President Javier Milei.
“Conditions for workers and trade unions have become increasingly repressive and hostile under the far-right government of President Javier Milei,” the study said.
The ITUC also highlighted Argentina’s implementation of an anti-blockade protocol aimed at maintaining public order during road blockades. According to the report, the measure authorizes what it describes as the indiscriminate use of police force.
The organization noted that Argentina’s rating has worsened for a second consecutive year, placing the country in Category 5, the lowest level assigned in the index and the worst rating Argentina has ever received.
“This represents an abrupt and unprecedented decline from Category 3 to Category 5 in just two years,” the report stated.
Category 5 includes countries where workers’ rights are considered “not guaranteed.” According to the ITUC, the downgrade reflects a shift from recurring labor rights violations to a situation in which workers are no longer assured basic protections.
The annual index assesses issues such as freedom of association, collective bargaining rights, the right to strike and legal protections for workers and trade unions.
The report’s findings place renewed international attention on labor conditions in several countries, particularly in Latin America, where Argentina, Panama and Ecuador now rank among the most challenging environments for workers’ rights.
International
OAS Election Mission to Monitor Claims of Political Interference by Colombia’s President
The Electoral Observation Mission of the Organization of American States (OAS) has pledged to follow up on allegations regarding the alleged involvement of Colombian President Gustavo Petro in political campaigning ahead of Sunday’s presidential election.
The announcement was made by presidential candidate Claudia López after a meeting with the head of the OAS Electoral Observation Mission, former Dominican Republic President Leonel Fernández.
According to a statement released by López’s campaign, the OAS mission listened to the concerns raised by the candidate and committed to monitoring the complaints she has submitted to both national and international organizations.
The mission also reiterated its commitment to overseeing the electoral process to help ensure that the will of Colombian voters is respected throughout the election.
“We have turned to international forums and technical observation missions to warn that Colombian democracy cannot be left at the mercy of fear or undue pressure,” López, the former mayor of Bogotá, said following the meeting.
López has repeatedly expressed concerns about what she describes as political interference in the electoral process and has called on national and international institutions to closely monitor the conduct of the campaign.
The OAS observation mission is one of several international bodies deployed to Colombia to monitor the presidential election, which is taking place amid heightened political tensions and intense competition among candidates from across the ideological spectrum.
The election is expected to be closely watched both domestically and internationally as Colombians choose whether to continue with the country’s first left-wing administration or shift toward a new political direction.
International
Colombia Votes in Pivotal Election as Left Seeks to Retain Power
Colombians headed to the polls on Sunday in a crucial presidential election that will determine whether the country continues under its first left-wing government in modern history or shifts back toward the political right.
The election campaign has been marked by deep political divisions, with armed violence and economic concerns emerging as the dominant issues for voters.
A total of 11 candidates remain in the race following the withdrawal of three presidential tickets. The central question is which candidate will advance to a likely runoff election alongside ruling-party senator Iván Cepeda, who has led opinion polls for months with his platform of “democratic revolution” but is not expected to secure enough votes to win outright in the first round.
On the right, Senator Paloma Valencia of the Democratic Center party, the political movement founded by former President Álvaro Uribe, has lost momentum as support has grown for far-right attorney Abelardo de la Espriella. Known as “The Tiger,” De la Espriella has campaigned on a tough-on-crime agenda targeting criminal organizations and guerrilla groups, drawing comparisons to the security policies of Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele.
Political analyst Sandra Borda, a professor at the University of the Andes, argues that Colombia is experiencing not simply greater polarization but a broader political landscape.
“The 2016 peace agreement with the FARC opened significant space for the left. Inevitably, it also created opportunities for the right,” Borda told CNN. The political scientist, who ran for the Senate in 2022 with the New Liberalism movement, believes the current election presents a more challenging environment for the left than four years ago.
According to Borda, left-wing candidates can no longer campaign solely as agents of change who have never had the opportunity to govern or who remained untouched by traditional politics.
“They can no longer make that argument. They have already governed and are no longer immune from criticism associated with political power,” she said.
The election is being closely watched across Latin America as voters weigh the record of the outgoing administration against promises of change from candidates across the political spectrum.
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