International
One month for the Trump vs Harris: US begins the countdown with the prevailing uncertainty
There is exactly one month left for the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November of this leap year, the day on which the United States traditionally celebrates its presidential elections, and uncertainty reigns on the horizon. With Kamala Harris slightly ahead of Donald Trump according to polls, the battle will be defined in the key states.
And it is on them that both candidates have focused their efforts in recent weeks and, presumably, they will do so during this month.
After passing through Georgia on Friday, one of the states affected by Hurricane Helene, this Saturday Trump visits Pennsylvania, the municipality of Butler, the place where on July 13 he was wounded in the ear by a gunshot in his first attempted attack.
And Harris, who broke into the campaign by surprise on July 21, after Joe Biden’s withdrawal, went to Michigan yesterday and today travels to North Carolina to receive information on the recovery tasks of the deadliest hurricane since Katrina in 2005, with more than two hundred deaths in the country.
These four, along with Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, are the key or hinged states, so tight their results will presumably be since their population is not of a marked political sign as happens in others such as California (democrat since the 90s) or Texas (republican since the 80s).
In electoral language they are known as the ‘battleground states’ and it is there that the candidates fight hardest, with face-to-face acts, advertising and interviews with local media.
Looking for votes in county by county
In a media conversation on Friday, the president of the Democratic National Committee, Jaime Harrison, said that the party has been “on the ground since the first days of this campaign,” talking “to all voters in all the disputed electoral districts.”
The training has “312 offices in the states in dispute” and the annual investment in the state parties has been increased by 25%.
According to political scientist David McCuan, a professor at Sonoma State University, of the 3,100 existing counties in the United States “approximately 15 or 20 are the most important for the outcome of the presidential elections.”
That’s why in the campaign the focus is on names like Northampton or Erie, in Pennsylvania, Maricopa in Arizona or Gwinnett and Fulton in Georgia. “These are county-by-county elections, not even state by state, to reach 270 electoral votes,” he told EFE.
And it is that in the United States citizens do not elect their president directly but through the 538 members of the Electoral College, who meet on a date after the elections to vote for the president based on what citizens choose at the polls.
Those 538 members are distributed proportionally according to the population among the 50 states and the District of Columbia and the most voted candidate takes all the voters, with the exception of Maine and Nebraska. To be president, one of the candidates must get 270 voters.
Polls show the close Trump-Harris battle in the elections
According to the FiveThirtyEight portal, which prepares an average among the polls for the elections, Harris is ahead of Trump by 48.4% compared to 45.9%, although in the key states the distance is much smaller.
An average of polls prepared by the New York Times gives victory to Harris in Pennsylvania (by less than one point), Nevada (1 point), Michigan (1 point) and Wisconsin (2 points). Meanwhile, Trump would achieve North Carolina (less than one point), Georgia (2 points) and Arizona (2 points).
For Lanae Erickson, political scientist at the Third Way think center, the level of participation will be key in these elections.
“In 2016 many people stayed at home because they did not believe that Trump could win and they were not really motivated by any of the candidates,” while in 2020 “the Democrats came out en masse,” he tells EFE.
There Harris has an advantage, because after Biden’s abandonment many citizens see her as “the agent of change” that will make them go out to vote.
For Aaron Kall, political scientist and author of the book “Debating The Donald,” this will be a month in which “campaigns will intensify their work in terms of travel, interviews with the media and rallies.”
“I think the sense of urgency is finally reaching the campaigns since there will be no more opportunities for debates,” because the former president has not accepted a second debate with the Democrat after the defeat he suffered in the first and only of his clashes.
International
UK braces for potential CO₂ shortage amid Middle East tensions
The government of United Kingdom is preparing contingency measures amid fears of a potential shortage of carbon dioxide (CO₂), which could impact the agri-food industry if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, The Times reported on Thursday.
According to the newspaper, officials assessed this scenario during a recent crisis meeting aimed at evaluating the consequences of a prolonged conflict, triggered on February 28 by joint attacks from United States and Israel against Iran.
Under this scenario, CO₂ supplies—primarily a byproduct of fertilizer production using natural gas—could fall by up to 18%, affecting multiple sectors including agriculture and food production.
The gas is widely used in the slaughter of pigs and poultry, as well as in extending the shelf life of packaged foods. Breweries could also face disruptions due to reduced availability.
“I don’t want to comment on a leak, but now that the information is out there, I hope people feel reassured knowing we are working on it,” said Peter Kyle, Secretary of State for Business and Trade, in remarks to Sky News.
While a drop in CO₂ supply is not expected to cause major shortages in supermarkets, it could limit product variety, The Times noted, citing access to internal government documents.
To mitigate the impact, authorities are considering prioritizing CO₂ supply for critical sectors such as healthcare and civil nuclear energy, where it is used in cooling systems for blood reserves, organs, vaccines, and electricity generation. The government may also request domestic producers to increase output.
Central America
El Salvador and Paraguay approve 2026–2028 cooperation program
The governments of El Salvador and Paraguay approved the 2026–2028 Cooperation Program, which includes six joint development projects, according to Salvadoran Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Adriana Mira.
Mira stated that El Salvador will act as the “main provider of cooperation,” contributing five initiatives focused on road infrastructure, tourism, and local development. She also noted that one of the projects will be led by the Paraguayan side, although no further details were disclosed.
The agreement was reached during the Second Meeting of the Joint Commission on Technical and Scientific Cooperation between both countries.
According to Paraguay’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the First Meeting of the Political Consultation and Bilateral Coordination Mechanism was also held, with the participation of Vice Minister Víctor Verdún.
In an official statement, the Paraguayan government reported that both delegations agreed to identify mechanisms to promote competitiveness, economic growth, and market access. They also committed to signing agreements related to air transport cooperation.
International
Macron meets Machado, stresses need for democratic transition in Venezuela
Emmanuel Macron met on Monday at the Élysée Palace with Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, where they discussed the importance of advancing a democratic transition in Venezuela.
In a message shared on social media, Macron highlighted Machado’s commitment to freedom and stressed the need to achieve a transition that is peaceful and respects the will of the Venezuelan people.
“I received María Corina Machado, Nobel Peace Prize laureate. Together, we discussed her commitment to freedom and the importance of achieving a democratic, peaceful transition in Venezuela that respects the will of its people,” he wrote.
For her part, Machado expressed her “deep gratitude” to Macron and to France for their support of democracy and freedom in Venezuela.
“We have gone through a long and painful journey, and we are now very close to freedom. Venezuela will become a nation of free and equal men and women—prosperous, safe, and united,” she said.
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