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One month for the Trump vs Harris: US begins the countdown with the prevailing uncertainty

There is exactly one month left for the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November of this leap year, the day on which the United States traditionally celebrates its presidential elections, and uncertainty reigns on the horizon. With Kamala Harris slightly ahead of Donald Trump according to polls, the battle will be defined in the key states.

And it is on them that both candidates have focused their efforts in recent weeks and, presumably, they will do so during this month.

After passing through Georgia on Friday, one of the states affected by Hurricane Helene, this Saturday Trump visits Pennsylvania, the municipality of Butler, the place where on July 13 he was wounded in the ear by a gunshot in his first attempted attack.

And Harris, who broke into the campaign by surprise on July 21, after Joe Biden’s withdrawal, went to Michigan yesterday and today travels to North Carolina to receive information on the recovery tasks of the deadliest hurricane since Katrina in 2005, with more than two hundred deaths in the country.

These four, along with Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, are the key or hinged states, so tight their results will presumably be since their population is not of a marked political sign as happens in others such as California (democrat since the 90s) or Texas (republican since the 80s).

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In electoral language they are known as the ‘battleground states’ and it is there that the candidates fight hardest, with face-to-face acts, advertising and interviews with local media.

Looking for votes in county by county

In a media conversation on Friday, the president of the Democratic National Committee, Jaime Harrison, said that the party has been “on the ground since the first days of this campaign,” talking “to all voters in all the disputed electoral districts.”

The training has “312 offices in the states in dispute” and the annual investment in the state parties has been increased by 25%.

According to political scientist David McCuan, a professor at Sonoma State University, of the 3,100 existing counties in the United States “approximately 15 or 20 are the most important for the outcome of the presidential elections.”

That’s why in the campaign the focus is on names like Northampton or Erie, in Pennsylvania, Maricopa in Arizona or Gwinnett and Fulton in Georgia. “These are county-by-county elections, not even state by state, to reach 270 electoral votes,” he told EFE.

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And it is that in the United States citizens do not elect their president directly but through the 538 members of the Electoral College, who meet on a date after the elections to vote for the president based on what citizens choose at the polls.

Those 538 members are distributed proportionally according to the population among the 50 states and the District of Columbia and the most voted candidate takes all the voters, with the exception of Maine and Nebraska. To be president, one of the candidates must get 270 voters.

Polls show the close Trump-Harris battle in the elections

According to the FiveThirtyEight portal, which prepares an average among the polls for the elections, Harris is ahead of Trump by 48.4% compared to 45.9%, although in the key states the distance is much smaller.

An average of polls prepared by the New York Times gives victory to Harris in Pennsylvania (by less than one point), Nevada (1 point), Michigan (1 point) and Wisconsin (2 points). Meanwhile, Trump would achieve North Carolina (less than one point), Georgia (2 points) and Arizona (2 points).

For Lanae Erickson, political scientist at the Third Way think center, the level of participation will be key in these elections.

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“In 2016 many people stayed at home because they did not believe that Trump could win and they were not really motivated by any of the candidates,” while in 2020 “the Democrats came out en masse,” he tells EFE.

There Harris has an advantage, because after Biden’s abandonment many citizens see her as “the agent of change” that will make them go out to vote.

For Aaron Kall, political scientist and author of the book “Debating The Donald,” this will be a month in which “campaigns will intensify their work in terms of travel, interviews with the media and rallies.”

“I think the sense of urgency is finally reaching the campaigns since there will be no more opportunities for debates,” because the former president has not accepted a second debate with the Democrat after the defeat he suffered in the first and only of his clashes.

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International

Mexico and Guatemala Agree on Five-Point Binational Plan for 2027

Mexico and Guatemala agreed Tuesday on a 2027 Binational Plan built around five areas of cooperation, along with a schedule of meetings and initiatives aimed at making progress by the end of 2026 on security, border infrastructure, human mobility, development and technical and social cooperation.

The agreement was announced by the foreign ministers of both countries following a meeting in Mexico City.

Mexican Foreign Minister Roberto Velasco said the plan will establish the “direction and priorities” of bilateral relations for next year. His Guatemalan counterpart, Carlos Ramiro Martínez, said the meeting allowed both governments to make decisions, schedule activities and revitalize bilateral cooperation mechanisms.

Security and border infrastructure

In the area of security, the two governments have nearly completed negotiations on a new memorandum of understanding for the Mexico-Guatemala High-Level Security Group (Ganseg), which was reactivated in 2025.

The countries expect to sign the agreement in the coming months to strengthen coordination and their ability to respond to shared security threats.

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Regarding their nearly 1,000-kilometer shared border, Mexico and Guatemala agreed to advance infrastructure improvements at border crossings and continue work on a joint cargo clearance program between Ciudad Hidalgo and Tecún Umán, two border areas separated by the Suchiate River.

The measures are intended to facilitate bilateral trade while making cross-border exchanges safer and more efficient.

The two governments will also continue defining a route toward a railway connection between their countries through Line K of Mexico’s Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (CIIT), with the aim of strengthening economic and community ties.

Migration and development

On human mobility, Mexico and Guatemala will maintain coordination to ensure safe, orderly and dignified returns, while strengthening protection for people in transit.

The bilateral agenda also includes a second phase of the Sembrando Vida program in Guatemala, which is expected to benefit 10,000 people across 15 departments.

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Both countries will also advance initiatives under Juntos para el Bienestar, as well as six technical, scientific and energy cooperation projects approved by the Joint Commission.

The agreements seek to strengthen bilateral ties and establish concrete priorities for cooperation between Mexico and Guatemala during 2027.

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International

France to Expel Two Iranian Diplomats Over Alleged Attack on French Officials

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot announced Tuesday, August 18, 2026, that France will expel two Iranian diplomats in response to what Paris described as an attack on two French representatives in Iran last month.

“Two French diplomats were scandalously and deliberately assaulted on July 19. I had announced that this intolerable act would have consequences. It has now happened. Two Iranian diplomats in France will be expelled in the coming days,” Barrot said in a message posted on X.

The two Iranian diplomats have been declared persona non grata and will be required to leave France within the coming days, according to the French foreign minister.

About a month ago, Barrot said that two members of the French diplomatic staff had been detained by Iranian security forces for several hours. One of them was also subjected to harassment, he said.

The French government described the incident as an “extremely serious act of intimidation” that violated diplomatic immunity.

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The two French embassy staff members were working on programs supporting Iranian civil society, particularly initiatives involving artists and researchers.

Iran has denied France’s allegations regarding the incident. The diplomatic dispute comes amid already strained relations between Paris and Tehran.

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International

Heat wave puts more than 70 million Americans under alerts as temperatures near 46°C

36 deaths reported due to heat wave in Nuevo Leon, Mexico

More than 70 million people remained under heat alerts Monday as an intense heat wave continued across the southern United States, particularly Florida and states along the Mexican border, where temperatures and heat indexes could reach as high as 46 degrees Celsius, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).

Several cities recorded or tied temperature records over the weekend and into Monday, including Miami and Fort Lauderdale in Florida; Laredo, Borger and Austin’s airport in Texas; Atlanta, Georgia; Raleigh and Charlotte, North Carolina; and Memphis, Tennessee.

The NWS warned that the heat wave will continue affecting the southern and southeastern United States, with maximum temperatures expected to remain near 38°C to 40°C for several days. The heat index, which combines temperature and humidity to estimate how hot conditions feel, could reach 46°C.

The extreme heat is also spreading into the Southwest, where temperatures began rising again between Monday and Tuesday. Forecast highs in the region range from about 38°C to 43°C.

Heat alerts remain in effect across Nevada, Arizona and California, including areas in southern Arizona and California near the Mexican border, as authorities warn of the risks posed by prolonged extreme temperatures.

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The NWS urged residents to limit outdoor activity, stay hydrated, ensure access to air conditioning or cooling centers, and check on vulnerable friends, neighbors and family members.

The United States is experiencing a summer marked by above-average temperatures and repeated heat waves. One of the most intense episodes occurred during the July 4 weekend, when extreme heat was blamed for roughly 30 deaths.

July was the hottest month ever recorded in the United States since measurements began, with the average temperature across the contiguous country approaching 25°C, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The combination of extreme heat and drought conditions has also fueled wildfires. Nearly 3 million hectares have burned across the country so far in 2026, making it the largest area affected by wildfires in a decade.

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