International

One month for the Trump vs Harris: US begins the countdown with the prevailing uncertainty

There is exactly one month left for the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November of this leap year, the day on which the United States traditionally celebrates its presidential elections, and uncertainty reigns on the horizon. With Kamala Harris slightly ahead of Donald Trump according to polls, the battle will be defined in the key states.

And it is on them that both candidates have focused their efforts in recent weeks and, presumably, they will do so during this month.

After passing through Georgia on Friday, one of the states affected by Hurricane Helene, this Saturday Trump visits Pennsylvania, the municipality of Butler, the place where on July 13 he was wounded in the ear by a gunshot in his first attempted attack.

And Harris, who broke into the campaign by surprise on July 21, after Joe Biden’s withdrawal, went to Michigan yesterday and today travels to North Carolina to receive information on the recovery tasks of the deadliest hurricane since Katrina in 2005, with more than two hundred deaths in the country.

These four, along with Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, are the key or hinged states, so tight their results will presumably be since their population is not of a marked political sign as happens in others such as California (democrat since the 90s) or Texas (republican since the 80s).

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In electoral language they are known as the ‘battleground states’ and it is there that the candidates fight hardest, with face-to-face acts, advertising and interviews with local media.

Looking for votes in county by county

In a media conversation on Friday, the president of the Democratic National Committee, Jaime Harrison, said that the party has been “on the ground since the first days of this campaign,” talking “to all voters in all the disputed electoral districts.”

The training has “312 offices in the states in dispute” and the annual investment in the state parties has been increased by 25%.

According to political scientist David McCuan, a professor at Sonoma State University, of the 3,100 existing counties in the United States “approximately 15 or 20 are the most important for the outcome of the presidential elections.”

That’s why in the campaign the focus is on names like Northampton or Erie, in Pennsylvania, Maricopa in Arizona or Gwinnett and Fulton in Georgia. “These are county-by-county elections, not even state by state, to reach 270 electoral votes,” he told EFE.

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And it is that in the United States citizens do not elect their president directly but through the 538 members of the Electoral College, who meet on a date after the elections to vote for the president based on what citizens choose at the polls.

Those 538 members are distributed proportionally according to the population among the 50 states and the District of Columbia and the most voted candidate takes all the voters, with the exception of Maine and Nebraska. To be president, one of the candidates must get 270 voters.

Polls show the close Trump-Harris battle in the elections

According to the FiveThirtyEight portal, which prepares an average among the polls for the elections, Harris is ahead of Trump by 48.4% compared to 45.9%, although in the key states the distance is much smaller.

An average of polls prepared by the New York Times gives victory to Harris in Pennsylvania (by less than one point), Nevada (1 point), Michigan (1 point) and Wisconsin (2 points). Meanwhile, Trump would achieve North Carolina (less than one point), Georgia (2 points) and Arizona (2 points).

For Lanae Erickson, political scientist at the Third Way think center, the level of participation will be key in these elections.

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“In 2016 many people stayed at home because they did not believe that Trump could win and they were not really motivated by any of the candidates,” while in 2020 “the Democrats came out en masse,” he tells EFE.

There Harris has an advantage, because after Biden’s abandonment many citizens see her as “the agent of change” that will make them go out to vote.

For Aaron Kall, political scientist and author of the book “Debating The Donald,” this will be a month in which “campaigns will intensify their work in terms of travel, interviews with the media and rallies.”

“I think the sense of urgency is finally reaching the campaigns since there will be no more opportunities for debates,” because the former president has not accepted a second debate with the Democrat after the defeat he suffered in the first and only of his clashes.

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International

Man arrested after deliberately driving into seven children in Osaka

Japanese police arrested a man on Thursday after he rammed his car into a group of seven schoolchildren in an apparent deliberate attack in the city of Osaka.

The children, who were on their way home from school, sustained injuries and were taken to the hospital. All seven remained conscious, according to local authorities.

An Osaka police officer, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the suspect is a 28-year-old man from Tokyo. The officer shared statements the man made after his arrest: “I was fed up with everything, so I decided to kill people by driving into several elementary school children,” the suspect reportedly said.

The man has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder.

The injured children, aged between seven and eight, included a seven-year-old girl who suffered a fractured jaw. The six other children—all boys—suffered minor injuries such as bruises and scratches and were undergoing medical evaluation.

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Witnesses described the car as “zigzagging” before hitting the children. One witness told Nippon TV that a girl was “covered in blood” and the others appeared to have scratches.

Another witness said the driver, who was wearing a face mask, looked to be in shock when school staff pulled him from the vehicle.

Violent crimes are rare in Japan, though serious incidents do occur from time to time. In 2008, Tomohiro Kato drove a two-ton truck into pedestrians in Tokyo’s Akihabara district, then fatally stabbed several victims. Seven people were killed in that attack.

Internacionales

Clashes erupt during may day protests across France amid calls for better wages

May Day protests in France were marked by a heavy police presence and clashes between demonstrators and law enforcement in several cities.

In Paris, Lyon, and Nantes, thousands took to the streets to demand better wages, fairer working conditions, and to voice their dissatisfaction with President Emmanuel Macron’s government.

While the majority of the demonstrations remained peaceful, isolated confrontations broke out in some areas. Protesters threw objects at the police, prompting the use of tear gas and resulting in several arrests.

Videos showing police crackdowns circulated widely on social media, drawing criticism from labor unions and human rights advocates, who denounced the authorities’ response to the protests.

International

Kristi Noem credits Trump for mass migrant deportations by mexican president

U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem claimed that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has deported “more than half a million” migrants due to pressure from former President Donald Trump.

During a cabinet meeting highlighting the “achievements” of Trump’s administration in its first 100 days, Noem asserted that under the Republican leader’s influence, “Mexico has finally come to the table” to negotiate on migration and fentanyl trafficking.

“The president of Mexico told me she has returned just over half a million people before they reached our border,” Noem stated, criticizing media reports that suggest the Biden administration deported more migrants than Trump’s.

“I wish those deportations were counted,” Noem added, “because those people never made it to our border—she sent them back because you made her.” She went on to thank Trump: “They never made it here because they got the message—because you were so aggressive.”

Noem has made controversial claims about Sheinbaum in the past, prompting the Mexican leader to refute them.

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On April 1, Sheinbaum responded to one such statement by declaring, “The president answers to only one authority, and that is the people of Mexico,” after Noem said on Fox News that she gave Sheinbaum “a list of things Trump would like to see” and that Mexico’s actions would determine whether Trump granted tariff relief.