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What is Trump’s chance of going to jail?

Donald Trump became the first former American president to be convicted in a criminal trial on Thursday, but his guilty verdict for falsification of commercial records does not imply, according to various experts, that he will go to jail.

The jury of his trial in New York did not absolve him of any of the 34 charges against him, each of which can result in a fine of up to $5,000 and up to four years in prison, in case he imposed the maximum penalty.

However, it is most likely that it will be dictated that what is decided for each of those positions will be fulfilled at the same time, which would reduce that period between bars to four years in total.

Dan Horwtitz, a defense lawyer who in the past took ‘white-neck’ cases for the office of the Manhattan District Prosecutor’s Office, pointed out on Thursday on CBS News that the possibility of house arrest is the most feasible.

That sentence would allow the former president and pre-candidate for the November elections to continue his campaign, even if it was virtually.

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But the possibilities are wide: Judge Juan Merchan, in the opinion of the expert, “could sentence him to a period of months or weeks in prison or he could demand that he go to jail every weekend for a while and then serve the rest of the sentence on parole.”

The 77-year-old Republican president, his status and lack of background are presented as points in his favor.

According to the NBC News channel, an analysis of “thousands of cases” similar to the one starring Trump points out that “very few people” end up in bars: barely one in ten convicted of falsifying commercial records, and those cases used to also involve other crimes.

The former president faced 34 charges of serious crimes of falsification of commercial records, all related to the reimbursement to his lawyer for paying in 2016 a total of $130,000 to the porn actress Stormy Daniels to silence an alleged sexual relationship in 2006.

The sentence will be announced on July 11, four days before the start of the convention in which the Republican Party is expected to officially proclaim Trump as its candidate for the November elections.

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In any case, the possible appeal of the former president would delay an eventual entry into prison.

The New York Times made it clear on Thursday that nothing can be taken for granted: “But there have been no indication of what Judge Merchan could decide, he has made it known that he takes white collar crimes seriously. Trump has attacked him and continuously denounced him as “partial and corrupt,” that newspaper said.

At the moment Trump is still a free man and a prison sentence would not invalidate his candidacy or his eventual presidency. The U.S. Constitution does not provide for anything about it, since it only requires presidents to be at least 35 years old and that they are U.S. citizens who have lived in the country for 14 years.

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International

Police investigate deaths of Rob Reiner and wife as apparent homicide

The Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) is investigating the deaths of Hollywood actor and filmmaker Rob Reinerand his wife as an “apparent homicide,” amid a wave of tributes to the director of classics such as When Harry Met Sally.

According to U.S. media reports on Sunday, Rob Reiner and Michele Singer Reiner were found dead at their Los Angeles mansion with what appeared to be stab wounds.

Several political figures shared messages of condolence following the reported deaths of the director of A Few Good Menand his wife.

While the LAPD did not officially confirm the identities of the victims, it stated that homicide detectives were dispatched to the Reiner residence.

“At this time, no additional details are available and the investigation into an apparent homicide is ongoing,” the Los Angeles Police Department said in a statement posted on social media.

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LAPD Deputy Chief Alan Hamilton told reporters that no arrests have been made and that no individuals are currently being questioned as suspects.

“I’m not going to confirm whether anyone is being questioned at this moment or not. We are going to try to speak with as many family members as we can,” Hamilton said.

CNN reported that a family spokesperson confirmed the deaths of Reiner and his wife.

California Governor Gavin Newsom, former U.S. President Barack Obama, and former Vice President Kamala Harrisissued statements expressing their condolences.

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International

U.S. and Mexico Reach Deal to Address Water Deficit Under 1944 Treaty

The United States and Mexico have reached an agreement to comply with current water obligations affecting U.S. farmers and ranchers and for Mexico to cover its water deficit to Texas under the 1944 Water Treaty, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a statement.

The department уточified that the agreement applies to both the current cycle and the water deficit from the previous cycle.

On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump accused Mexico of failing to comply with the water-sharing treaty between the two countries, which requires the United States to deliver 1.85 billion cubic meters of water from the Colorado River, while Mexico must supply 432 million cubic meters from the Rio Grande.

Mexico is behind on its commitments. According to Washington, the country has accumulated a deficit of more than one billion cubic meters of water over the past five years.

“This violation is severely harming our beautiful crops and our livestock in Texas,” Trump wrote on Monday.

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The Department of Agriculture said on Friday that Mexico had agreed to supply 250 million cubic meters of water starting next week and to work toward closing the shortfall.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, quoted in the statement, said Mexico delivered more water in a single year than it had over the previous four years combined.

Trump has said that if Mexico continues to fall short of its obligations, the United States reserves the right to impose 5% tariffs on imported Mexican products.

Mexico’s Deputy Foreign Minister for North America, Roberto Velasco, said that a severe drought in 2022 and 2023prevented the country from meeting its commitments.

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International

Several people shot in attack on Brown University campus

Several people were shot on Saturday in an attack on the campus of Brown University, in the northeastern United States, local police reported.

“Shelter in place and avoid the area until further notice,” the Providence Police Department urged in a post on X. Brown University is located in Providence, the capital of the state of Rhode Island.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on his social media platform Truth Social that he had been briefed on the situation and that the FBI was on the scene.

At 5:52 p.m. local time (11:52 p.m. GMT), Brown University said the situation was still “ongoing” and instructed students to remain sheltered until further notice.

After initially stating that the suspect had been taken into custody, Trump later posted a second message clarifying that local police had walked back that information. “The suspect has NOT been apprehended,” the U.S. president said.

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