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What is Trump’s chance of going to jail?

Donald Trump became the first former American president to be convicted in a criminal trial on Thursday, but his guilty verdict for falsification of commercial records does not imply, according to various experts, that he will go to jail.

The jury of his trial in New York did not absolve him of any of the 34 charges against him, each of which can result in a fine of up to $5,000 and up to four years in prison, in case he imposed the maximum penalty.

However, it is most likely that it will be dictated that what is decided for each of those positions will be fulfilled at the same time, which would reduce that period between bars to four years in total.

Dan Horwtitz, a defense lawyer who in the past took ‘white-neck’ cases for the office of the Manhattan District Prosecutor’s Office, pointed out on Thursday on CBS News that the possibility of house arrest is the most feasible.

That sentence would allow the former president and pre-candidate for the November elections to continue his campaign, even if it was virtually.

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But the possibilities are wide: Judge Juan Merchan, in the opinion of the expert, “could sentence him to a period of months or weeks in prison or he could demand that he go to jail every weekend for a while and then serve the rest of the sentence on parole.”

The 77-year-old Republican president, his status and lack of background are presented as points in his favor.

According to the NBC News channel, an analysis of “thousands of cases” similar to the one starring Trump points out that “very few people” end up in bars: barely one in ten convicted of falsifying commercial records, and those cases used to also involve other crimes.

The former president faced 34 charges of serious crimes of falsification of commercial records, all related to the reimbursement to his lawyer for paying in 2016 a total of $130,000 to the porn actress Stormy Daniels to silence an alleged sexual relationship in 2006.

The sentence will be announced on July 11, four days before the start of the convention in which the Republican Party is expected to officially proclaim Trump as its candidate for the November elections.

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In any case, the possible appeal of the former president would delay an eventual entry into prison.

The New York Times made it clear on Thursday that nothing can be taken for granted: “But there have been no indication of what Judge Merchan could decide, he has made it known that he takes white collar crimes seriously. Trump has attacked him and continuously denounced him as “partial and corrupt,” that newspaper said.

At the moment Trump is still a free man and a prison sentence would not invalidate his candidacy or his eventual presidency. The U.S. Constitution does not provide for anything about it, since it only requires presidents to be at least 35 years old and that they are U.S. citizens who have lived in the country for 14 years.

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International

Trump to build $200M ballroom at the White House by 2028

The U.S. government under President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that it will begin construction in September on a new 8,000-square-meter ballroom at the White House.

The announcement was made by Karoline Leavitt, the administration’s press secretary, during a briefing in which she explained that the expansion responds to the need for a larger venue to host “major events.”

“Other presidents have long wished for a space capable of accommodating large gatherings within the White House complex… President Trump has committed to solving this issue,” Leavitt told reporters.

The project is estimated to cost $200 million, fully funded through donations from Trump himself and other “patriots,” according to a government statement. Construction is scheduled to begin in September and is expected to be completed before Trump’s term ends in 2028.

The Clark Construction Group, a Virginia-based company known for projects such as the Capital One Arena and L’Enfant Plaza in Washington, D.C., has been selected to lead the project.

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The new ballroom will be built on the East Wing of the White House, expanding the iconic residence with a space designed for state dinners, official ceremonies, and large-scale events.

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International

Three salvadorans in Florida sentenced in $146 million construction tax fraud scheme

Three Salvadoran residents living in Orlando, Florida, were sentenced for conspiracy to commit tax fraud and wire fraud involving a scheme exceeding $146 million in the construction industry, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Middle District of Florida. The sentence was handed down by federal judge Timothy J. Corrigan on Tuesday, July 29.

Eduardo Aníbal Escobar (45) was sentenced to 4 years and 9 months in prison, Carlos Alberto Rodríguez (36) to 3 years and 4 months, and Adelmy Tejada (57) to 18 months in prison, followed by 6 months of house arrest. All three pled guilty on April 3, 2025.

In addition to the prison terms, the court ordered restitution payments totaling $36,957,616 to the IRS for unpaid payroll taxes, and $397,895 to two insurers for workers’ compensation claims related to the scheme.

Escobar and Rodríguez are permanent legal residents originally from El Salvador, while Tejada is a naturalized U.S. citizen of Salvadoran origin.

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International

Kremlin hails preparedness after Kamchatka quakes leave no casualties

The Kremlin expressed relief that the earthquakes that struck Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula today —the first being the strongest since 1952— resulted in no casualties, and emphasized that the region is well prepared to face such natural disasters.

“Thank God, there were no victims,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov during his daily press briefing.

The presidential representative stated that “all alert systems were activated in time, and evacuations were organized for residents in areas requiring it in response to tsunami threats.”

“Overall, the seismic resilience of the buildings proved effective (…) Therefore, we can say that the technological preparedness demonstrated a high level,” Peskov added.

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