International
Inflation clouds ‘Black Friday’ kickoff of US holiday shopping season
| By AFP | John Biers |
Retailers unveiled a trove of fresh seasonal promotions Friday, as they try to coax sales from reticent shoppers whose holiday cheer has been tempered by inflation and worries over a softening economy.
“Black Friday,” the unofficial start of the US holiday shopping season, announced itself with the annual day-after-Thanksgiving deluge of online promotions and early store openings.
But industry experts have been cautious about this year’s prospects, in light of price pressures that have exacerbated concerns about an oversupply of goods.
A year ago, retailers faced product shortfalls in the wake of shipping backlogs and factory closures related to Covid-19. To avert a repeat, the industry front-loaded its holiday imports this year, leaving it vulnerable to oversupply at a time when consumers are cutting back.
“Supply shortages was yesterday’s problem,” said Neil Saunders, managing director for GlobalData Retail, a consultancy. “Today’s problem is having too much stuff.”
Saunders said retailers have made progress in reducing excess inventories, but oversupply will mean deep discounts in many categories, including electronics, home improvement and apparel.
Online shoppers spent $5.3 billion on Thanksgiving Day itself, according to an Adobe report early Friday, up 2.9 percent from a year ago.
Higher costs for gasoline and household staples like meat and cereal are a nationwide issue, and they do not burden everyone equally.
“The lower incomes are definitely hit worst by the higher inflation,” said Claire Li, senior analyst at Moody’s. “People have to spend on the essential items.”
Diminishing savings
Leading forecasts from Deloitte and the National Retail Federation project a single-digit percentage rise in sales, but this is unlikely to exceed the inflation rate.
Adobe has forecast an overall holiday sales increase of 2.5 percent, less than a third of the level from last year. Besides inflation, Adobe cited higher Federal Reserve interest rates and an uptick in brick-and-mortar shopping as factors.
European countries like Britain and France have been marking Black Friday for a few years now too, but with soaring inflation, merchants there face a similar dilemma.
“Retailers are desperate for some spending cheer but the worry is that it could turn out to be more of a Bleak Friday,” said Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Susannah Streeter.
US shoppers have remained resilient throughout the pandemic, often spending more than expected even when consumer sentiment surveys suggest they are in a gloomy mood.
Part of the reason has been the unusually robust state of savings, with many households banking government pandemic aid payments at a time of reduced consumption due to virus restrictions.
But that cushion is starting to whittle away. After hitting $2.5 trillion in excess savings in mid-2021, the benchmark fell to $1.7 trillion in the second quarter, according to Moody’s.
Accompanying this drop has been a rise in credit card debt visible in Federal Reserve data and anecdotally described by chains that also report more purchases made with food stamps.
Mixed picture
Recent earnings reports from retailers paint a mixed picture on consumer health.
Target stood on the downcast side, pointing to a sharp decline in shopping activity in late October, potentially portending a weak holiday season.
The big-box chain expects a “very promotional” holiday season, said Chief Executive Brian Cornell.
“We’ve had a consumer who has been dealing with very stubborn inflation for quarter after quarter now,” Cornell said on a conference call with analysts.
He added that customers are “shopping very carefully on a budget.”
But Lowe’s, another big US chain specializing in home-improvement, offered a different view, describing the same late-October period as “strong.”
“We are not seeing anything that feels or looks like a trade down or consumer pullback,” said Lowe’s Chief Executive Marvin Ellison.
Consumers like Charmaine Taylor, who checks airline websites frequently, are staying vigilant.
Taylor, who works in child care, has had her travel plans thwarted due to exorbitant plane ticket prices — and she is unsure of how much she can spend on family this year.
“I’m trying to give them some little gifts,” she said at a park in Harlem earlier this week. “I don’t know if I’ll be able to. Inflation is hitting pretty hard.”
International
Rubio rules out 2028 presidential bid if Vance runs
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he would not seek the presidency in 2028 if current Vice President JD Vancedecides to run as the Republican nominee to succeed President Donald Trump.
“If JD Vance runs for president, he will be our candidate, and I will be one of the first people to support him,” Rubio said in an interview with Vanity Fair, in which he appeared alongside other senior members of the presidential cabinet.
Rubio, 54, and Vance, 41, are widely viewed as two of the leading Republican figures who could headline the party’s ticket in the 2028 election. Under the U.S. Constitution, Trump is barred from seeking another term after completing two presidential mandates.
In a lighthearted moment during the interview, Vance jokingly offered photographers $1,000 if they managed to make him look better than Rubio in the photos. Both leaders have received public backing from Trump, who last October floated the idea of a joint ticket featuring Rubio and Vance, without clarifying who would lead it.
“I think that if they ever teamed up, they would be unstoppable. I don’t think anyone would run against us,” Trump said at the time.
White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, who also took part in the interview, confirmed that Trump does not intend to violate the 22nd Amendment, which prohibits a third presidential term, though she acknowledged that the president is “having fun” with speculation about a possible return to office.
Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, served as a Republican senator from 2010 to 2025. He sought the party’s presidential nomination in 2016 but was defeated by Trump after a bruising primary contest. His name was floated as a potential vice presidential pick in 2024, but Vance ultimately secured the spot. After taking office, Trump appointed Rubio as secretary of state, making him the first Latino to hold the position.
International
Authorities search for armed and dangerous suspect in fatal Brown University attack
According to the statement, investigators are “seeking the public’s help to identify and speak with an individual” who was seen “near” the suspect at the time of the attack.
The Providence Police Department in Rhode Island released three photos of the person of interest, whose face has been blurred. In the images, the individual is wearing navy blue clothing, what appears to be a green hood, and carrying a light-colored backpack.
Earlier, authorities had released several photos and videos of a suspect described as “approximately 5 feet 8 inches tall, with a stocky build,” dressed in dark clothing, with their face covered by a surgical mask and wearing a beanie. The suspect’s identity remains unknown.
Authorities are offering a $50,000 reward for any information leading to the identification, arrest, and conviction of the person responsible for the killings, who is considered armed and dangerous.
The gunman opened fire on Saturday at Brown University’s engineering and physics building, where exams were being held, killing students Ella Cook and Mukhammad Aziz Umurzokov. The names of the nine people injured have not been released.
International
Police investigate deaths of Rob Reiner and wife as apparent homicide
The Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) is investigating the deaths of Hollywood actor and filmmaker Rob Reinerand his wife as an “apparent homicide,” amid a wave of tributes to the director of classics such as When Harry Met Sally.
According to U.S. media reports on Sunday, Rob Reiner and Michele Singer Reiner were found dead at their Los Angeles mansion with what appeared to be stab wounds.
Several political figures shared messages of condolence following the reported deaths of the director of A Few Good Menand his wife.
While the LAPD did not officially confirm the identities of the victims, it stated that homicide detectives were dispatched to the Reiner residence.
“At this time, no additional details are available and the investigation into an apparent homicide is ongoing,” the Los Angeles Police Department said in a statement posted on social media.
LAPD Deputy Chief Alan Hamilton told reporters that no arrests have been made and that no individuals are currently being questioned as suspects.
“I’m not going to confirm whether anyone is being questioned at this moment or not. We are going to try to speak with as many family members as we can,” Hamilton said.
CNN reported that a family spokesperson confirmed the deaths of Reiner and his wife.
California Governor Gavin Newsom, former U.S. President Barack Obama, and former Vice President Kamala Harrisissued statements expressing their condolences.
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