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Waiting game: US election results could take days

Photo: Jeff Kowalsky / AFP

| By AFP | Paul Handley |

Control of the US Congress is at stake Tuesday as Americans vote nationwide, but with key races expected to be close, and possible delays and court challenges, results might not be known for days.

Political tensions could rise as the days, or weeks, roll on without a certain winner. 

Some national TV networks, using complex calculations based on early results and traditional voting patterns, will likely declare winners on the evening of election night.

But though highly accurate, these projected results are limited by the number of races deemed “too-close-to-call.”

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The crucial answer to whether Democrats or Republicans capture the US Senate — currently evenly divided — could take an especially long time.

Pollster predictions suggest the 100-member body could end up evenly divided, or split by two seats.

Counting votes takes time for several reasons, but since the 2020 election — which loser Donald Trump continues to claim, without evidence, was marred by fraud —  the process has become more politically fraught.

In Arizona, where political tempers are high, Secretary of State Katie Hobbes, the Democratic candidate for governor, said they were preparing for possible violence. 

“Certainly given what we saw in 2020 and the aftermath, the amount of harassment and threats that election officials have been subjected to since then, and the ramping up that we’ve seen in the last several weeks leading to this election, we’re certainly prepared for that,” she said.

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Mail-in ballots

Americans can vote on the official election day in polling places equipped with electronic tabulation machines.

But the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated a shift to voting early in polling places and by mail.

Mail-in votes take longer to count, because they must be removed from envelopes, a labor-intensive process at scale.

In some states, voters have until election day to actually post their mail-in ballots, which then might not arrive for several days.

Votes cast by Americans living overseas, including many in the military, might not arrive and be counted until after election day. Though those numbers are relatively small, in a close race, they could be critical.

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According to University of Florida Professor Michael McDonald’s US Elections Project, as of midday Tuesday, 45.8 million early votes had been cast, of them 25.4 million by mail or placed in drop boxes.

States have different rules on when mail-in votes can be processed — removed from the envelopes and checked against voter rolls — and when they can be counted.

In nine states, like Pennsylvania, where there is a very close Senate race, the ballots cannot be processed until election day. Sixteen states do not allow mail-in votes to be counted until after the polls have closed on Tuesday.

That means processing and counting can go on well past election day — in 2020, the results in some crucial swing states were not known for three days.

Georgia runoff

Control of the Senate might not be decided at all on Tuesday. In Georgia, Republican Herschel Walker and Democrat Raphael Warnock are running neck-and-neck for a Senate seat.  

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But a third candidate, Libertarian Chase Oliver, could earn enough votes to prevent either Warnock or Herschel from topping the 50 percent threshold, and force a runoff between the two.

In the 2020 elections, a similarly close race in Georgia kept overall control of the Senate undecided until a runoff took place in early January 2021. This year, a runoff would take place in December.

Recounts, legal challenges

Very close races can result in mandatory recounts, usually when candidates are divided by less than 0.5 percent of the total vote.

With eight Senate races appearing very close, that could add days of suspense to the overall result.

In addition, the 2020 election showed that parties are willing to turn to the courts to contest close elections, to decide on which ballots can be counted, to challenge counting processes and to question the accuracy of tabulation machinery.  

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Dozens of lawsuits have already been filed around the country, many of which focus on which ballots can or cannot be counted.

In Pennsylvania, there is already a court battle brewing on whether unsigned or incorrectly dated mail-in votes can be counted. 

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International

FBI Says It Disrupted Alleged Plot Targeting White House During UFC Event

 

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) announced Tuesday that it had disrupted an alleged plot to attack the White House during a major Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) event held in Washington over the weekend.

FBI Director Kash Patel said the threat was identified on June 10 through a joint investigation involving multiple law enforcement agencies. According to Patel, swift action by authorities led to the arrest of several suspects before the alleged plan could be carried out.

“On June 10, the FBI and our law enforcement partners became aware of a potential threat targeting UFC America 250 in Washington. Thanks to the rapid response of the FBI and our partners, multiple individuals are now in custody, and the alleged attack plans were stopped before they could be executed,” Patel said.

He emphasized that the operation demonstrated the ability of security agencies to detect and prevent potential threats at large public gatherings. Patel added that the investigation remains ongoing and that additional details will be released as court proceedings move forward.

According to reports from U.S. media outlets, five individuals have been arrested so far. The suspects were identified as Tycen Proper of Ohio, Daniel Eskridge of Missouri, Abraham Hermosillo Álvarez of Nebraska, and Bryan Omar Roa and Michael Alan Thomas, both from California. Authorities are also investigating the possible involvement of 18 additional individuals.

Investigators allege that the plot involved the use of drones equipped with explosives to target buildings near the sporting event. The plan reportedly sought to trigger a mass evacuation and direct attendees toward areas where snipers were allegedly positioned. Authorities further claim that a second phase of the operation included an attempted assault on the White House.

The U.S. Secret Service confirmed that it worked closely with the FBI throughout the operation. Secret Service Director Sean Curran stated that security teams conducted extensive efforts to identify those involved and eliminate any threat to attendees and protected facilities.

The investigation reportedly uncovered communications conducted through the messaging application Signal, where several suspects allegedly discussed details related to the planned attack. A forensic analysis of one of the seized mobile phones revealed at least 23 users participating in conversations connected to the alleged planning activities.

Court documents also indicate that some of the suspects allegedly intended to target U.S. political figures. Among the reported targets were members of Congress who had received contributions from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). Investigators further stated that one of the primary suspects had posted antisemitic messages and expressions of support for Adolf Hitler on social media, evidence that is now part of the ongoing judicial investigation.

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International

Brazil helicopter crash in Rio de Janeiro kills six, including pilots and international figures

The Rio de Janeiro Civil Police confirmed on Monday the identities of three of the six victims killed in a helicopter collision that occurred the previous morning in the Recreio dos Bandeirantes neighborhood.

All three identified victims are Brazilian nationals: the pilots of the aircraft, Charles Marsillac and Alexandre Souza, and music producer Lucas Brito.

The identities of the three foreign victims have not yet been officially confirmed. They include U.S. singer Oliver Tree, Argentine YouTuber Gaspar Prim—known online as “Gaspi”—and Argentine producer Lucas Vignale, all of whom were listed on the flight manifest.

According to police, forensic experts from the Legal Medical Institute have already collected DNA samples in order to identify the foreign victims, whose bodies were severely burned.

One of the helicopters crashed into a private parking lot, triggering a fire that destroyed around twenty electric vehicles. That aircraft was carrying the pilot and four passengers, including the three foreign nationals.

The second helicopter, which had only the pilot on board, crashed approximately 100 meters away from the first impact site.

Rio de Janeiro’s deputy mayor, Eduardo Cavaliere, stated that both helicopters were operating transport flights toward Angra dos Reis on the Rio coastline and toward the mountainous region of the state.

Oliver Tree, 32, was in Brazil as part of an international tour. The artist, known for songs such as “Life Goes On” and “Miss You,” had performed to a large audience in São Paulo a week earlier and was scheduled to continue his tour in Europe.

Argentine content creator Gaspar Prim, 23, had built a following of more than two million on social media platforms, gaining popularity for humorous and often controversial video productions that had occasionally been removed by hosting platforms.

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International

Mexico and U.S. Launch New Bilateral Security Group to Combat Fentanyl and Organized Crime

The governments of Mexico and the United States officially launched the Bilateral Implementation Group (BIG) on Friday, a new initiative aimed at strengthening cooperation on security issues and enhancing joint efforts against transnational crime.

In a statement, U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ronald Johnson announced that he and Deputy Foreign Minister Roberto Velasco addressed officials from both countries who will lead what he described as a “new phase of bilateral cooperation.” The initiative seeks to curb the flow of fentanyl and other illicit drugs, illegal firearms, and human trafficking across the shared border.

Earlier this week, Mexico’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs had confirmed that senior security officials from both nations would meet in Mexico City on June 12 to review and advance existing cooperation agreements.

Through social media, Ambassador Johnson explained that the new bilateral group is designed to improve coordination between the two governments by placing greater emphasis on implementation, accountability, and measurable results. The effort will also focus on combating transnational criminal organizations operating across North America.

“The participation of 15 U.S. government agencies, working alongside their Mexican counterparts, reflects the seriousness of this effort and our shared commitment to delivering measurable results,” Johnson said.

The ambassador also highlighted several achievements that he attributed to ongoing bilateral cooperation. According to Johnson, maritime drug trafficking into the United States has declined by more than 95 percent, while overdose deaths have fallen by 35 percent.

He further noted that Mexican authorities have seized more than 400 metric tons of illegal drugs and dismantled over 2,300 clandestine laboratories as part of their efforts to combat organized crime and narcotics production.

The launch of the Bilateral Implementation Group marks the latest step in the security partnership between Mexico and the United States, as both countries seek to address shared challenges related to drug trafficking, arms smuggling, human trafficking, and the activities of criminal networks operating across the region.

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