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Waiting game: US election results could take days

Photo: Jeff Kowalsky / AFP

| By AFP | Paul Handley |

Control of the US Congress is at stake Tuesday as Americans vote nationwide, but with key races expected to be close, and possible delays and court challenges, results might not be known for days.

Political tensions could rise as the days, or weeks, roll on without a certain winner. 

Some national TV networks, using complex calculations based on early results and traditional voting patterns, will likely declare winners on the evening of election night.

But though highly accurate, these projected results are limited by the number of races deemed “too-close-to-call.”

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The crucial answer to whether Democrats or Republicans capture the US Senate — currently evenly divided — could take an especially long time.

Pollster predictions suggest the 100-member body could end up evenly divided, or split by two seats.

Counting votes takes time for several reasons, but since the 2020 election — which loser Donald Trump continues to claim, without evidence, was marred by fraud —  the process has become more politically fraught.

In Arizona, where political tempers are high, Secretary of State Katie Hobbes, the Democratic candidate for governor, said they were preparing for possible violence. 

“Certainly given what we saw in 2020 and the aftermath, the amount of harassment and threats that election officials have been subjected to since then, and the ramping up that we’ve seen in the last several weeks leading to this election, we’re certainly prepared for that,” she said.

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Mail-in ballots

Americans can vote on the official election day in polling places equipped with electronic tabulation machines.

But the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated a shift to voting early in polling places and by mail.

Mail-in votes take longer to count, because they must be removed from envelopes, a labor-intensive process at scale.

In some states, voters have until election day to actually post their mail-in ballots, which then might not arrive for several days.

Votes cast by Americans living overseas, including many in the military, might not arrive and be counted until after election day. Though those numbers are relatively small, in a close race, they could be critical.

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According to University of Florida Professor Michael McDonald’s US Elections Project, as of midday Tuesday, 45.8 million early votes had been cast, of them 25.4 million by mail or placed in drop boxes.

States have different rules on when mail-in votes can be processed — removed from the envelopes and checked against voter rolls — and when they can be counted.

In nine states, like Pennsylvania, where there is a very close Senate race, the ballots cannot be processed until election day. Sixteen states do not allow mail-in votes to be counted until after the polls have closed on Tuesday.

That means processing and counting can go on well past election day — in 2020, the results in some crucial swing states were not known for three days.

Georgia runoff

Control of the Senate might not be decided at all on Tuesday. In Georgia, Republican Herschel Walker and Democrat Raphael Warnock are running neck-and-neck for a Senate seat.  

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But a third candidate, Libertarian Chase Oliver, could earn enough votes to prevent either Warnock or Herschel from topping the 50 percent threshold, and force a runoff between the two.

In the 2020 elections, a similarly close race in Georgia kept overall control of the Senate undecided until a runoff took place in early January 2021. This year, a runoff would take place in December.

Recounts, legal challenges

Very close races can result in mandatory recounts, usually when candidates are divided by less than 0.5 percent of the total vote.

With eight Senate races appearing very close, that could add days of suspense to the overall result.

In addition, the 2020 election showed that parties are willing to turn to the courts to contest close elections, to decide on which ballots can be counted, to challenge counting processes and to question the accuracy of tabulation machinery.  

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Dozens of lawsuits have already been filed around the country, many of which focus on which ballots can or cannot be counted.

In Pennsylvania, there is already a court battle brewing on whether unsigned or incorrectly dated mail-in votes can be counted. 

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International

Rubio rules out 2028 presidential bid if Vance runs

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he would not seek the presidency in 2028 if current Vice President JD Vancedecides to run as the Republican nominee to succeed President Donald Trump.

“If JD Vance runs for president, he will be our candidate, and I will be one of the first people to support him,” Rubio said in an interview with Vanity Fair, in which he appeared alongside other senior members of the presidential cabinet.

Rubio, 54, and Vance, 41, are widely viewed as two of the leading Republican figures who could headline the party’s ticket in the 2028 election. Under the U.S. Constitution, Trump is barred from seeking another term after completing two presidential mandates.

In a lighthearted moment during the interview, Vance jokingly offered photographers $1,000 if they managed to make him look better than Rubio in the photos. Both leaders have received public backing from Trump, who last October floated the idea of a joint ticket featuring Rubio and Vance, without clarifying who would lead it.

“I think that if they ever teamed up, they would be unstoppable. I don’t think anyone would run against us,” Trump said at the time.

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White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, who also took part in the interview, confirmed that Trump does not intend to violate the 22nd Amendment, which prohibits a third presidential term, though she acknowledged that the president is “having fun” with speculation about a possible return to office.

Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, served as a Republican senator from 2010 to 2025. He sought the party’s presidential nomination in 2016 but was defeated by Trump after a bruising primary contest. His name was floated as a potential vice presidential pick in 2024, but Vance ultimately secured the spot. After taking office, Trump appointed Rubio as secretary of state, making him the first Latino to hold the position.

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International

Authorities search for armed and dangerous suspect in fatal Brown University attack

According to the statement, investigators are “seeking the public’s help to identify and speak with an individual” who was seen “near” the suspect at the time of the attack.

The Providence Police Department in Rhode Island released three photos of the person of interest, whose face has been blurred. In the images, the individual is wearing navy blue clothing, what appears to be a green hood, and carrying a light-colored backpack.

Earlier, authorities had released several photos and videos of a suspect described as “approximately 5 feet 8 inches tall, with a stocky build,” dressed in dark clothing, with their face covered by a surgical mask and wearing a beanie. The suspect’s identity remains unknown.

Authorities are offering a $50,000 reward for any information leading to the identification, arrest, and conviction of the person responsible for the killings, who is considered armed and dangerous.

The gunman opened fire on Saturday at Brown University’s engineering and physics building, where exams were being held, killing students Ella Cook and Mukhammad Aziz Umurzokov. The names of the nine people injured have not been released.

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International

Police investigate deaths of Rob Reiner and wife as apparent homicide

The Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) is investigating the deaths of Hollywood actor and filmmaker Rob Reinerand his wife as an “apparent homicide,” amid a wave of tributes to the director of classics such as When Harry Met Sally.

According to U.S. media reports on Sunday, Rob Reiner and Michele Singer Reiner were found dead at their Los Angeles mansion with what appeared to be stab wounds.

Several political figures shared messages of condolence following the reported deaths of the director of A Few Good Menand his wife.

While the LAPD did not officially confirm the identities of the victims, it stated that homicide detectives were dispatched to the Reiner residence.

“At this time, no additional details are available and the investigation into an apparent homicide is ongoing,” the Los Angeles Police Department said in a statement posted on social media.

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LAPD Deputy Chief Alan Hamilton told reporters that no arrests have been made and that no individuals are currently being questioned as suspects.

“I’m not going to confirm whether anyone is being questioned at this moment or not. We are going to try to speak with as many family members as we can,” Hamilton said.

CNN reported that a family spokesperson confirmed the deaths of Reiner and his wife.

California Governor Gavin Newsom, former U.S. President Barack Obama, and former Vice President Kamala Harrisissued statements expressing their condolences.

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