International
Brazil runoff: 3 key factors
| By AFP | Héctor Velasco |
Charisma and campaign strategy won’t be the only things in play when Brazil’s far-right President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist challenger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva face off in a polarizing runoff election Sunday.
Here are three key factors analysts say will determine the outcome.
Rejection
Millions of Brazilians hate Bolsonaro, Lula or both — and that rejection vote will play a decisive role, analysts say.
Four years ago, Bolsonaro ran as an outsider, tapping widespread outrage with an economic crisis and massive corruption scandals under the Workers’ Party (PT), which governed Brazil for 13 years — first under Lula (2003-2010), then Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016), who was ultimately impeached.
Now, with Brazil deeply divided over Bolsonaro’s hardline conservatism, Covid-19 denialism and vitriolic style, the former army captain has plenty of haters of his own.
“Brazilian politics has two negationist forces: ‘anti-PTism’ and ‘anti-Bolsonarism.’ And that will decide the election,” says Mayra Goulart, a political scientist at Rio de Janeiro Federal University.
Turnout
Around 32 million Brazilians didn’t vote in the first-round election on October 2 — more than five times the six million votes that separated Lula (48 percent) from Bolsonaro (43 percent).
“Turnout will be key” in the runoff, says political scientist Oliver Stuenkel of the Getulio Vargas Foundation.
Poor voters, a group that leans heavily toward Lula, are particularly susceptible to stay home, especially if they lack transportation.
In theory, voting is mandatory in Brazil. But the fine for failing to comply — 3.5 reais, or a little more than 50 US cents — costs less than round-trip bus fare.
“The more voters stay home, the worse it will be for Lula,” says Stuenkel.
It’s the economy, stupid?
Latin America’s biggest economy is crawling slowly out of its pandemic hole.
Unemployment has fallen from a pandemic high of 14.5 percent to 8.7 percent last quarter, and economic growth is expected to come in at 2.8 percent this year.
But 9.5 million workers are unemployed, 33 million people are living in hunger, and prices remain painfully high for most — though inflation has started to fall.
“The economy, high inflation… unemployment exacerbated by the pandemic, all contributed to many families’ dismay” with Bolsonaro, says sociologist Paulo Baia.
Lula, who is remembered for an economic boom and social programs that helped lift 30 million people from poverty, is leaning heavily on that legacy.
Bolsonaro is meanwhile counting on jacked-up welfare payments to the poor, fuel-price cuts and tentative signs of better times ahead to win over voters.
Ultimately, the economy may not be the decisive issue, though.
Stuenkel says it could be eclipsed by Brazil’s culture wars and favorite Bolsonaro themes like “family, Christianity and tradition.”
“If (Lula) wins, that will show voters’ main concern is the economy,” he says.
“If Bolsonaro wins, it will show social conservatism is seen as the most important issue.”
International
China calls for dialogue amid rising Iran-Israel conflict
The Chinese government emphasized on Monday the importance of “creating the conditions to return to the proper path of dialogue” between Iran and Israel, which have exchanged attacks in recent days resulting in more than 20 Israeli and over 220 Iranian deaths.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun expressed deep concern at a press conference over the Israeli attacks on Iran and the “sudden escalation” of the military conflict.
Guo called on all parties to “take immediate measures to ease tensions and prevent the region from descending into further turmoil,” stating that “force cannot bring lasting peace.”
“If the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to intensify or even expand, the countries of the Middle East will be the first to suffer the consequences,” he added, while noting that China “will continue to maintain communication with the relevant parties, promoting peace and dialogue.”
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke last Saturday with his Iranian and Israeli counterparts to condemn the Israeli airstrike on Iranian territory, which he described as a “violation of international law” with the potential to trigger “disastrous” consequences.
In both calls, Wang reiterated China’s rejection of the use of force, defended diplomacy as the only solution to the Iranian nuclear dispute, and offered China’s mediation to prevent further destabilization in the Middle East.
International
Suspect arrested in killing of Minnesota legislator and husband, governor Says
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz announced on Sunday the arrest of Vance Luther Boelter, 57, the main suspect in the killing of Democratic legislator Melissa Hortman and her husband in a Brooklyn Park suburb on Friday night.
Boelter, who also reportedly shot State Senator John Hoffman and his wife early Saturday morning, was apprehended in Sibley County following an intensive manhunt involving hundreds of law enforcement officers.
In a public statement, Governor Walz condemned Boelter’s “unthinkable actions,” which resulted in the death of a woman who “shaped the core of who we are as a state.”
“We cannot become numb to this. We are a deeply divided nation,” Walz said in a statement posted on his X account.
“We move forward not with hatred or violence, but with humility, grace, and civility,” he added.
Expressing solidarity with the victims’ families, Walz said the entire state of Minnesota is in mourning. He also thanked law enforcement for their bravery and professionalism: “They have saved lives,” he emphasized.
“As we heal, we will not let fear win,” Walz concluded. “We must honor Melissa by moving forward with understanding, service, and above all, humanity.”
Throughout Sunday, police and sheriff units searched a rural area in Minnesota for Vance Luther Boelter, a security company director and preacher who, according to Governor Walz, acted out of politically motivated violence.
International
40,000 tourists stranded in Israel amid airspace shutdown over Iran conflict
Approximately 40,000 tourists are stranded in Israel following the closure of the country’s airspace amid escalating hostilities with Iran, the Israeli Ministry of Tourism reported on Monday.
The ministry has set up a virtual office to provide information via email (virtual@goisrael.gov.il) and phone (+972-53-583-5808), as well as a Facebook page called Israel Virtual Tourist Office.
Israeli Tourism Minister Haim Katz is in contact with hotels and accommodations across the country to offer support to tourists in need, the ministry added.
Many stranded travelers are considering crossing overland into Jordan or Egypt to seek flights from those countries. The Israel Airports Authority reminded the public that land border crossings remain open.
Three German tourists stranded in Jerusalem told EFE today that they have not received any assistance from their country’s embassy in Israel, and their primary option currently is to cross into Jordan to catch a flight from there.
Since early Friday morning, Israel launched operations against Iran, targeting military personnel and infrastructure, including energy and nuclear facilities, as well as numerous residential areas in Tehran.
In response, Iran has fired hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel, some of which have struck various locations across the country, leaving at least 24 dead so far, according to Israeli authorities.
Iranian health officials report at least 224 deaths, mostly civilians, including at least 17 senior military officials—nine from the Revolutionary Guard—and more than a dozen nuclear scientists.
The Israeli military has warned that many more “targets” remain, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declared on Monday that it will continue missile attacks against Israel until its “destruction.”
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