International
Brazil runoff: 3 key factors
| By AFP | Héctor Velasco |
Charisma and campaign strategy won’t be the only things in play when Brazil’s far-right President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist challenger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva face off in a polarizing runoff election Sunday.
Here are three key factors analysts say will determine the outcome.
Rejection
Millions of Brazilians hate Bolsonaro, Lula or both — and that rejection vote will play a decisive role, analysts say.
Four years ago, Bolsonaro ran as an outsider, tapping widespread outrage with an economic crisis and massive corruption scandals under the Workers’ Party (PT), which governed Brazil for 13 years — first under Lula (2003-2010), then Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016), who was ultimately impeached.
Now, with Brazil deeply divided over Bolsonaro’s hardline conservatism, Covid-19 denialism and vitriolic style, the former army captain has plenty of haters of his own.
“Brazilian politics has two negationist forces: ‘anti-PTism’ and ‘anti-Bolsonarism.’ And that will decide the election,” says Mayra Goulart, a political scientist at Rio de Janeiro Federal University.
Turnout
Around 32 million Brazilians didn’t vote in the first-round election on October 2 — more than five times the six million votes that separated Lula (48 percent) from Bolsonaro (43 percent).
“Turnout will be key” in the runoff, says political scientist Oliver Stuenkel of the Getulio Vargas Foundation.
Poor voters, a group that leans heavily toward Lula, are particularly susceptible to stay home, especially if they lack transportation.
In theory, voting is mandatory in Brazil. But the fine for failing to comply — 3.5 reais, or a little more than 50 US cents — costs less than round-trip bus fare.
“The more voters stay home, the worse it will be for Lula,” says Stuenkel.
It’s the economy, stupid?
Latin America’s biggest economy is crawling slowly out of its pandemic hole.
Unemployment has fallen from a pandemic high of 14.5 percent to 8.7 percent last quarter, and economic growth is expected to come in at 2.8 percent this year.
But 9.5 million workers are unemployed, 33 million people are living in hunger, and prices remain painfully high for most — though inflation has started to fall.
“The economy, high inflation… unemployment exacerbated by the pandemic, all contributed to many families’ dismay” with Bolsonaro, says sociologist Paulo Baia.
Lula, who is remembered for an economic boom and social programs that helped lift 30 million people from poverty, is leaning heavily on that legacy.
Bolsonaro is meanwhile counting on jacked-up welfare payments to the poor, fuel-price cuts and tentative signs of better times ahead to win over voters.
Ultimately, the economy may not be the decisive issue, though.
Stuenkel says it could be eclipsed by Brazil’s culture wars and favorite Bolsonaro themes like “family, Christianity and tradition.”
“If (Lula) wins, that will show voters’ main concern is the economy,” he says.
“If Bolsonaro wins, it will show social conservatism is seen as the most important issue.”
International
Bolsonaro diagnosed with skin cancer amid coup conviction
Former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro has been diagnosed with skin cancer while serving a historic sentence for attempting a coup d’état. His medical team confirmed that the lesions have been removed and that, for now, he does not require further procedures, though he will need regular monitoring.
On Wednesday, September 17, Bolsonaro’s doctors confirmed the diagnosis. The announcement comes shortly after the former leader was convicted of orchestrating an attempted coup.
According to his physician, Claudio Birolini, Bolsonaro has “squamous cell carcinoma, which is neither the most benign nor the most aggressive form — it is intermediate.” Birolini warned, however, that this type of skin cancer “can carry more serious consequences.”
International
Milei praises Paraguay’s growth, calls Argentina’s last 20 years a ‘decline’
Argentine President Javier Milei praised Paraguay’s economic growth over the past two decades during a speech before the Paraguayan Congress on Wednesday (Sept. 17, 2025), crediting it to incentives that favored capitalism. At the same time, he contrasted that progress with what he described as Argentina’s deepening “decline” during the same period.
“If we compare the last 20 years of Paraguay with those of the Argentine Republic, we will find almost diametrically opposite results,” Milei told lawmakers during a special session of Parliament on the second and final day of his official visit to Asunción.
“While you have not stopped growing, we have deepened our decline. If we understand incentives as the engine of capitalism, Paraguay focused on preserving and strengthening them, while Argentina dedicated itself to chaining, directing, and suffocating them,” the right-wing leader stated.
International
Trump administration launches large-scale immigration operation in Chicago
The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump intensified a large-scale immigration operation in the Chicago area with the arrival of additional Border Patrol agents on Tuesday and the presence of Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem during a raid.
Noem posted a video on her X account showing the immigration operation, in which DHS reportedly removed “violent criminals” from the streets. The footage shows Noem observing the arrest of a man taken into custody at his home early Tuesday morning at an undisclosed location.
“I was in Chicago today to make it clear that we will not back down,” the secretary wrote. “Our work is just beginning,” she added.
The warning from Noem was echoed by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Chief Gregory Bovino, who posted a video on X Tuesday showing multiple Border Patrol vehicles arriving in the city with the caption: “Chicago, we are here!”
Bovino, who led the immigration crackdown in Los Angeles implemented since last June, said the team will remain in Chicago to continue the mission they started in California.
Operation “Midway Blitz” is currently focused on the Chicago metropolitan area and its suburbs. Activists and residents have reported sightings of masked agents and unmarked vehicles in predominantly Latino neighborhoods.
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