International

Brazil runoff: 3 key factors

Photo: Evaristo Sa / AFP

| By AFP | Héctor Velasco |

Charisma and campaign strategy won’t be the only things in play when Brazil’s far-right President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist challenger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva face off in a polarizing runoff election Sunday.

Here are three key factors analysts say will determine the outcome.

Rejection

Millions of Brazilians hate Bolsonaro, Lula or both — and that rejection vote will play a decisive role, analysts say.

Four years ago, Bolsonaro ran as an outsider, tapping widespread outrage with an economic crisis and massive corruption scandals under the Workers’ Party (PT), which governed Brazil for 13 years — first under Lula (2003-2010), then Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016), who was ultimately impeached.

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Now, with Brazil deeply divided over Bolsonaro’s hardline conservatism, Covid-19 denialism and vitriolic style, the former army captain has plenty of haters of his own.

“Brazilian politics has two negationist forces: ‘anti-PTism’ and ‘anti-Bolsonarism.’ And that will decide the election,” says Mayra Goulart, a political scientist at Rio de Janeiro Federal University.

Turnout

Around 32 million Brazilians didn’t vote in the first-round election on October 2 — more than five times the six million votes that separated Lula (48 percent) from Bolsonaro (43 percent).

“Turnout will be key” in the runoff, says political scientist Oliver Stuenkel of the Getulio Vargas Foundation.

Poor voters, a group that leans heavily toward Lula, are particularly susceptible to stay home, especially if they lack transportation.

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In theory, voting is mandatory in Brazil. But the fine for failing to comply — 3.5 reais, or a little more than 50 US cents — costs less than round-trip bus fare.

“The more voters stay home, the worse it will be for Lula,” says Stuenkel.

It’s the economy, stupid?

Latin America’s biggest economy is crawling slowly out of its pandemic hole.

Unemployment has fallen from a pandemic high of 14.5 percent to 8.7 percent last quarter, and economic growth is expected to come in at 2.8 percent this year.

But 9.5 million workers are unemployed, 33 million people are living in hunger, and prices remain painfully high for most — though inflation has started to fall.

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“The economy, high inflation… unemployment exacerbated by the pandemic, all contributed to many families’ dismay” with Bolsonaro, says sociologist Paulo Baia.

Lula, who is remembered for an economic boom and social programs that helped lift 30 million people from poverty, is leaning heavily on that legacy.

Bolsonaro is meanwhile counting on jacked-up welfare payments to the poor, fuel-price cuts and tentative signs of better times ahead to win over voters.

Ultimately, the economy may not be the decisive issue, though.

Stuenkel says it could be eclipsed by Brazil’s culture wars and favorite Bolsonaro themes like “family, Christianity and tradition.”

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“If (Lula) wins, that will show voters’ main concern is the economy,” he says.

“If Bolsonaro wins, it will show social conservatism is seen as the most important issue.”

International

US panel backs Trump-themed coin amid controversy

The United States Department of the Treasury confirmed to AFP that the Commission of Fine Arts approved the design of a new collectible coin featuring Donald Trump, with members of the commission appointed by the current administration.

According to the proposal, the coin will feature an image of Trump standing with clenched fists over a desk on the obverse, while the reverse will display an eagle, a traditional symbol of the United States.

The sale price of the collectible has not yet been disclosed, although the United States Mint typically offers similar items for more than $1,000.

“There is no more iconic portrait for the front of these coins than that of our president Donald Trump,” U.S. Treasurer Brandon Beach said in a statement sent to AFP. He added that two additional coins — a $1 piece and a one-ounce gold coin — are also under consideration.

However, the Citizens Coinage Advisory Committee (CCAC), another body responsible for reviewing new coin proposals, declined to discuss the Trump design in late February.

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“Only nations governed by kings or dictators place the image of a sitting leader on their currency,” said Donald Scarinciat the time. “No country in the world has minted coins featuring a democratically elected leader during their term in office,” he added.

When contacted by AFP, the Treasury Department did not immediately respond to requests for further comment.

International

Fed’s Waller warns of rising inflation risks amid Middle East conflict

Christopher Waller, a governor at the Federal Reserve, said Friday that he is increasingly concerned about the inflationary impact of the ongoing conflict involving United States and Israel against Iran, particularly due to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Waller, who had supported interest rate cuts over the past year amid concerns about the labor market, said he has shifted his stance in recent weeks due to rising inflation risks.

“Since the Strait of Hormuz was closed, it suggests this conflict could be much more prolonged and that oil prices will remain elevated for longer,” Waller said in an interview with CNBC.

“Therefore, this indicates that inflation is a greater concern than I had previously assessed,” he added.

Waller also backed the Federal Reserve’s decision earlier this week to keep interest rates unchanged, signaling a more cautious approach as global geopolitical tensions continue to affect economic outlooks.

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International

Brazil offers to mediate Colombia-Ecuador tensions, calls for restraint

The government of Brazil has offered to mediate in the ongoing tensions between Colombia and Ecuador, while calling on both nations to exercise restraint.

In a statement released Wednesday, Brazil’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged the parties involved to act with moderation and seek a peaceful resolution to the dispute.

“Brazil encourages all sides to act with moderation in order to find a peaceful solution to the controversy. It stands ready to support dialogue efforts aimed at preserving peace and security in the region,” the statement said.

Brazil also expressed “serious concern” over reports of deaths in the border area between Colombia and Ecuador, noting that the circumstances surrounding the incidents have not yet been clarified.

The diplomatic move comes amid rising tensions between the neighboring countries, increasing regional concern over stability and security along their shared border.