International
Brazil runoff: 3 key factors
| By AFP | Héctor Velasco |
Charisma and campaign strategy won’t be the only things in play when Brazil’s far-right President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist challenger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva face off in a polarizing runoff election Sunday.
Here are three key factors analysts say will determine the outcome.
Rejection
Millions of Brazilians hate Bolsonaro, Lula or both — and that rejection vote will play a decisive role, analysts say.
Four years ago, Bolsonaro ran as an outsider, tapping widespread outrage with an economic crisis and massive corruption scandals under the Workers’ Party (PT), which governed Brazil for 13 years — first under Lula (2003-2010), then Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016), who was ultimately impeached.
Now, with Brazil deeply divided over Bolsonaro’s hardline conservatism, Covid-19 denialism and vitriolic style, the former army captain has plenty of haters of his own.
“Brazilian politics has two negationist forces: ‘anti-PTism’ and ‘anti-Bolsonarism.’ And that will decide the election,” says Mayra Goulart, a political scientist at Rio de Janeiro Federal University.
Turnout
Around 32 million Brazilians didn’t vote in the first-round election on October 2 — more than five times the six million votes that separated Lula (48 percent) from Bolsonaro (43 percent).
“Turnout will be key” in the runoff, says political scientist Oliver Stuenkel of the Getulio Vargas Foundation.
Poor voters, a group that leans heavily toward Lula, are particularly susceptible to stay home, especially if they lack transportation.
In theory, voting is mandatory in Brazil. But the fine for failing to comply — 3.5 reais, or a little more than 50 US cents — costs less than round-trip bus fare.
“The more voters stay home, the worse it will be for Lula,” says Stuenkel.
It’s the economy, stupid?
Latin America’s biggest economy is crawling slowly out of its pandemic hole.
Unemployment has fallen from a pandemic high of 14.5 percent to 8.7 percent last quarter, and economic growth is expected to come in at 2.8 percent this year.
But 9.5 million workers are unemployed, 33 million people are living in hunger, and prices remain painfully high for most — though inflation has started to fall.
“The economy, high inflation… unemployment exacerbated by the pandemic, all contributed to many families’ dismay” with Bolsonaro, says sociologist Paulo Baia.
Lula, who is remembered for an economic boom and social programs that helped lift 30 million people from poverty, is leaning heavily on that legacy.
Bolsonaro is meanwhile counting on jacked-up welfare payments to the poor, fuel-price cuts and tentative signs of better times ahead to win over voters.
Ultimately, the economy may not be the decisive issue, though.
Stuenkel says it could be eclipsed by Brazil’s culture wars and favorite Bolsonaro themes like “family, Christianity and tradition.”
“If (Lula) wins, that will show voters’ main concern is the economy,” he says.
“If Bolsonaro wins, it will show social conservatism is seen as the most important issue.”
International
U.S. strike in Caribbean kills three suspected drug traffickers
A U.S. strike on a suspected drug-smuggling vessel in the Caribbean killed three people on Saturday, according to Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth, marking the latest in a series of attacks in international waters.
The United States has deployed ships to the Caribbean and sent fighter jets to Puerto Rico as part of a large military force that Washington says is aimed at curbing drug trafficking.
“This vessel, like all the others, was known to our intelligence for being involved in illicit narcotics smuggling,” Hegseth stated on X. “Three narcoterrorists were aboard the vessel during the attack, which took place in international waters,” he added.
Experts argue that the attacks, which began in early September, amount to extrajudicial executions, even if the targets are known traffickers.
Washington has yet to publicly provide evidence that the targeted individuals were actively smuggling drugs or posed a threat to the United States.
Hegseth said the U.S. would continue “hunting… and killing” suspected traffickers. He also shared video footage of the strike, showing the vessel being hit and engulfed in flames. As in previous videos, sections of the ship were blurred, making it impossible to verify the number of people on board.
The United Nations called on Friday for Washington to halt its attacks.
International
At least 23 killed in Sonora supermarket blast, including minors
At least 23 people were killed and 11 others injured in an explosion at a supermarket in Hermosillo, in the northern Mexican state of Sonora, local authorities reported on Saturday.
“So far, there are 23 confirmed deaths and 11 injured, including minors,” said Sonora Governor Alfonso Durazo in a video message. He added that the injured are receiving treatment in various hospitals across the city.
“I have ordered a thorough and transparent investigation to determine the causes of the incident and assign responsibility where appropriate,” Durazo said.
The explosion occurred at a Waldo’s store in downtown Hermosillo. Local authorities confirmed that the incident was not an attack nor related to any violent act against civilians.
Meanwhile, Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum expressed her condolences on X, offering sympathy to the families and loved ones of those who lost their lives.
International
Floods in Central Vietnam leave 28 dead, thousands displaced
The death toll from heavy rains and flooding in central Vietnam has risen to 28, with six people reported missing and 43 injured, local newspaper VnExpress reported Friday night.
More than 22,100 homes remain flooded, primarily in the cities of Hue and Da Nang. Floods and landslides have destroyed or swept away 91 houses and damaged another 181, the report added.
Around 245,000 households are still without electricity, particularly in Da Nang, where over 225,000 homes are affected.
Additionally, 80 stretches of national highways are blocked or disrupted due to landslides. Authorities expect the flooding to continue for another day or two in the region.
U.S. strike in Caribbean kills three suspected drug traffickers
At least 23 killed in Sonora supermarket blast, including minors
Floods in Central Vietnam leave 28 dead, thousands displaced
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