International
Brazil runoff: 3 key factors
| By AFP | Héctor Velasco |
Charisma and campaign strategy won’t be the only things in play when Brazil’s far-right President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist challenger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva face off in a polarizing runoff election Sunday.
Here are three key factors analysts say will determine the outcome.
Rejection
Millions of Brazilians hate Bolsonaro, Lula or both — and that rejection vote will play a decisive role, analysts say.
Four years ago, Bolsonaro ran as an outsider, tapping widespread outrage with an economic crisis and massive corruption scandals under the Workers’ Party (PT), which governed Brazil for 13 years — first under Lula (2003-2010), then Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016), who was ultimately impeached.
Now, with Brazil deeply divided over Bolsonaro’s hardline conservatism, Covid-19 denialism and vitriolic style, the former army captain has plenty of haters of his own.
“Brazilian politics has two negationist forces: ‘anti-PTism’ and ‘anti-Bolsonarism.’ And that will decide the election,” says Mayra Goulart, a political scientist at Rio de Janeiro Federal University.
Turnout
Around 32 million Brazilians didn’t vote in the first-round election on October 2 — more than five times the six million votes that separated Lula (48 percent) from Bolsonaro (43 percent).
“Turnout will be key” in the runoff, says political scientist Oliver Stuenkel of the Getulio Vargas Foundation.
Poor voters, a group that leans heavily toward Lula, are particularly susceptible to stay home, especially if they lack transportation.
In theory, voting is mandatory in Brazil. But the fine for failing to comply — 3.5 reais, or a little more than 50 US cents — costs less than round-trip bus fare.
“The more voters stay home, the worse it will be for Lula,” says Stuenkel.
It’s the economy, stupid?
Latin America’s biggest economy is crawling slowly out of its pandemic hole.
Unemployment has fallen from a pandemic high of 14.5 percent to 8.7 percent last quarter, and economic growth is expected to come in at 2.8 percent this year.
But 9.5 million workers are unemployed, 33 million people are living in hunger, and prices remain painfully high for most — though inflation has started to fall.
“The economy, high inflation… unemployment exacerbated by the pandemic, all contributed to many families’ dismay” with Bolsonaro, says sociologist Paulo Baia.
Lula, who is remembered for an economic boom and social programs that helped lift 30 million people from poverty, is leaning heavily on that legacy.
Bolsonaro is meanwhile counting on jacked-up welfare payments to the poor, fuel-price cuts and tentative signs of better times ahead to win over voters.
Ultimately, the economy may not be the decisive issue, though.
Stuenkel says it could be eclipsed by Brazil’s culture wars and favorite Bolsonaro themes like “family, Christianity and tradition.”
“If (Lula) wins, that will show voters’ main concern is the economy,” he says.
“If Bolsonaro wins, it will show social conservatism is seen as the most important issue.”
International
U.S. Senate Rejects Budget, Bringing Government Closer to Shutdown Amid DHS Dispute
The U.S. Senate voted on Thursday against a budget proposal in a move aimed at pressuring changes at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), following the killing of two civilians during a deployment of immigration agents in Minneapolis.
All Senate Democrats and seven Republican lawmakers voted against the bill, which requires 60 votes to advance, pushing the country closer to a partial government shutdown that would cut funding for several agencies, including the Pentagon and the Department of Health.
The rejection came as Senate leaders and the White House continue negotiations on a separate funding package for DHS that would allow reforms to the agency. Proposed measures include banning Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents from wearing face coverings and requiring them to use body-worn cameras during operations.
The vote took place just hours after President Donald Trump said he was “close” to reaching an agreement with Democrats and did not believe the federal government would face another shutdown, following last year’s record stoppage.
“I don’t think the Democrats want a shutdown either, so we’ll work in a bipartisan way to avoid it. Hopefully, there will be no government shutdown. We’re working on that right now,” Trump said during a Cabinet meeting at the White House.
International
Trump Says Putin Agreed to One-Week Halt in Attacks on Ukraine Amid Extreme Cold
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he secured a commitment from Russian President Vladimir Putinto halt attacks against Ukraine for one week, citing extreme weather conditions affecting the region.
“Because of the extreme cold (…) I personally asked Putin not to attack Kyiv or other cities and towns for a week. And he agreed. He was very pleasant,” Trump said during a Cabinet meeting broadcast by the White House.
Trump acknowledged that several advisers had questioned the decision to make the call.
“A lot of people told me not to waste the call because they wouldn’t agree. And he accepted. And we’re very happy they did, because they don’t need missiles hitting their towns and cities,” the president said.
According to Trump, Ukrainian authorities reacted with surprise to the announcement but welcomed the possibility of a temporary ceasefire.
“It’s extraordinarily cold, record cold (…) They say they’ve never experienced cold like this,” he added.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky later commented on the announcement, expressing hope that the agreement would be honored.
International
Storm Kristin Kills Five in Portugal, Leaves Nearly 500,000 Without Power
Storm Kristin, which battered Portugal with heavy rain and strong winds early Wednesday, has left at least five people dead, while nearly half a million residents remained without electricity as of Thursday, according to updated figures from authorities.
The revised death toll was confirmed to AFP by a spokesperson for the National Emergency and Civil Protection Authority (ANPEC). On Wednesday, the agency had reported four fatalities.
Meanwhile, E-Redes, the country’s electricity distribution network operator, said that around 450,000 customers were still without power, particularly in central Portugal.
Emergency services responded to approximately 1,500 incidents between midnight and 8:00 a.m. local time on Wednesday, as the storm caused widespread disruptions.
The Portuguese government described Kristin as an “extreme weather event” that inflicted significant damage across several regions of the country. At the height of the storm, as many as 850,000 households and institutions lost electricity during the early hours of Wednesday.
Several municipalities ordered the closure of schools, many of which remained shut on Thursday due to ongoing adverse conditions.
Ricardo Costa, regional deputy commander of the Leiria Fire Brigade, said residents continue to seek assistance as rainfall persists.
“Even though the rain is not extremely intense, it is causing extensive damage to homes,” he noted.
In Figueira da Foz, a coastal city in central Portugal, strong winds toppled a giant Ferris wheel, underscoring the severity of the storm.
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