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Lula’s lead holds steady ahead of Brazil vote: poll

Photo: Maira Erlich / AFP

AFP

Leftist front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s lead over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro remains steady at six percentage points ahead of Brazil’s October 30 presidential runoff election, according to a poll released Friday.

Lula has 53 percent of the vote to 47 percent for Bolsonaro, the Datafolha institute found, the same numbers as its last poll on October 7.

The figures exclude voters who plan to cast blank or spoiled ballots — five percent of respondents, Datafolha found.

The margin of error for the poll, which was based on interviews with 2,898 people Thursday and Friday, was plus or minus two percentage points.

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The latest numbers came as a battle brewed in Brazil over pollsters, which largely underestimated Bolsonaro’s support in the first-round election on October 2.

Datafolha, for instance, had found Bolsonaro trailing Lula by 14 percentage points on the eve of the first round.

In the event, the incumbent finished just five points shy: 48 percent to 43 percent.

Bolsonaro cried foul after the election, accusing polling firms of trying to muzzle his popularity.

“We beat the lie,” he said.

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Federal police reportedly opened an investigation into polling firms Thursday at the request of Bolsonaro’s justice ministry over alleged “criminal practices.”

Competition regulators, meanwhile, opened a separate investigation into whether the firms had carried out an “orchestrated action” to “manipulate” the elections.

However, the head of the Superior Electoral Tribunal, Judge Alexandre de Moraes, ordered the investigations halted late Thursday, saying they were “usurping” electoral officials’ authority.

The probes “appear to show an intent to satisfy (Bolsonaro’s) will,” wrote Moraes, instructing electoral officials to open an investigation of their own into a possible “abuse of power.”

Bolsonaro hit back at Moraes, who doubles as a Supreme Court justice and is a frequent target of attacks from the president.

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“The polling firms are going to keep lying. How many votes are they dragging to the other side? People generally vote for whomever’s in the lead,” Bolsonaro said.

  • Supporters of Brazil's former President (2003-2010) and presidential candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT), Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, take pictures during a rally of the candidate in Recife, Pernambuco state, Brazil, on Friday, October 14, 2022. - President Jair Bolsonaro, 67, exceeded polling predictions by coming a closer-than-expected second to ex-president Lula da Silva, 76, in a first election round on October 2. The two men will face off in a deeply polarized second round on October 30. (Photo by Maira Erlich / AFP)

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International

Claudia Sheinbaum: Operation Against ‘El Mencho’ Was Based on Pending Arrest Warrants

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum on Wednesday rejected claims that the military operation that resulted in the death of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), was carried out under pressure from the United States government.

Sheinbaum explained that the deployment of federal forces was aimed at executing outstanding arrest warrants against Oseguera Cervantes, who was considered one of the most wanted criminals in both Mexico and the United States.

“That was not the objective (to ease pressure from the United States). It is very important, and I want to repeat it. This individual had an arrest warrant, or several,” Sheinbaum said, referring to the operation conducted on February 22.

According to the president, the initial goal was to capture Oseguera Cervantes, but military forces responded after coming under attack during the intervention.

“The operation was to detain him. The problem is that they were attacked — the Secretariat of National Defense — and they responded at that moment,” she said.

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The president insisted that the action was not carried out in response to external demands, although she acknowledged intelligence cooperation with the United States.

“It was not done in any way because of pressure from the United States, not at all. Of course, there was intelligence information from the United States that was used specifically,” she concluded.

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International

Spain Denies Any Agreement to Cooperate with U.S. Military in Iran Operations

Spain’s Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares on Wednesday firmly denied that Madrid has agreed to cooperate with the U.S. military in operations against Iran, contradicting statements made minutes earlier by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

“I categorically deny it,” Albares said in a radio interview cited by EFE. “The position of the Spanish government regarding the war in the Middle East, the bombings in Iran, and the use of our bases has not changed by a single comma.”

Earlier in the day, Leavitt told reporters that Spain had “agreed to cooperate with the United States military in recent hours,” following President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a trade embargo on Madrid. Trump had warned of economic measures after Spain reportedly refused to allow the Pentagon to use facilities at Spanish bases for operations related to Iran.

“I have no idea what that could be referring to or where it could be coming from,” Albares said, insisting that Spain’s position “has not changed at all” and therefore “remains absolutely unchanged.” He added that he had “no desire” and “almost no time” to speculate about the White House spokesperson’s remarks.

Albares reiterated Spain’s “No to war” stance, which he said had been clearly and forcefully expressed by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in an institutional address. According to the foreign minister, that position has been supported by “many European colleagues.”

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White House Says Spain Agrees to Cooperate with U.S. Military After Trump Threatens Trade Embargo

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday that Spain has agreed “in recent hours” to cooperate with the U.S. military, following President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a trade embargo on Madrid.

Trump had warned of potential commercial measures after Spain reportedly refused to allow the Pentagon to use facilities at Spanish military bases for operations related to Iran.

“With respect to Spain, I think you heard the president’s message yesterday loud and clear, and I understand that in recent hours they have agreed to cooperate with the United States military,” Leavitt said during a press briefing.

She added that the U.S. military is currently coordinating with its counterparts in Spain. However, the president expects broader support.

“The president expects that all of Europe, all of our European allies, of course, will cooperate in this important mission — not only for the United States, but also for Europe,” Leavitt said.

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Her remarks came in response to questions about Spain’s position and its role as a U.S. ally amid rising tensions surrounding operations involving Iran.

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