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US hurricane rebuilding rules must adapt to ‘era of climate change’: expert

Photo: The New York Times

AFP | Lucie Aubourg

After an extreme weather event, such as Hurricane Ian which devastated parts of Florida last month, most Americans choose to rebuild rather than move to less hazardous areas.

But as climate change increases the frequency and scale of natural disasters, does US policy need to adapt?

Gavin Smith, a professor of environmental planning at the University of North Carolina, worked for several states following major hurricanes, including Katrina in Mississippi (2005) and Matthew in North Carolina (2016).

According to him, current reconstruction standards are not up to the challenges posed by climate change, but correcting them will require real “political will.”

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Smith’s responses to AFP have been lightly edited and condensed for clarity.

Current reconstruction rules

Q: What are the rules for re-construction after a hurricane, and are they adapted to climate change?

A: Communities must comply with the local codes and standards in place in their jurisdiction before the storm struck.

In the US, we have the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which has historically been subsidized by the federal government. 

For a community to join the program, it has to adopt certain flood risk reduction standards. They include building codes as well as land use plans. 

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Then, if a home is damaged in the storm more than 50 percent of their value, it must be built back to the most recent code and standards in place.

Our standard for flood is rebuilding largely back to the “100 year flood,” more accurately termed the one percent annual chance flood event. But in an era of climate change, that “100 year” flood is happening more and more often.

Most risk reduction codes and standards often reflect a climate of the past.

For example, we spent $14 billion rebuilding the levee system in New Orleans after hurricane Katrina. That levee system was built back to the “100 year flood.” 

So you could make the argument that in the era of climate change, that levee system is already out of date. 

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Political will

Q: What do you expect from government officials?

A: Disasters can present opportunities to rebuild communities safer.

What I’m suggesting is that if we’re going to spend hundreds of millions of dollars building these communities back, we need to require communities to adopt higher codes and standards. 

But that takes political will of both members of Congress and local elected officials.

These are really difficult trillion dollar questions.

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You’ll also have builders and the private sector saying, “We should limit those kinds of regulations, as we need to quickly rebuild.”

It takes a lot of political will for a mayor or for a governor to say “No, we’ve got to do what’s right in the long run.:

Unfortunately, people don’t get elected by saying “I am going to require higher standards.”

That’s not a winning slogan. It takes political will to say, enough is enough, we need to adopt higher standards, it’s going to take time, cost more, and people may have to pay more to do it.

That said, we also need to make sure we include equity in processes adopted to develop those standards. 

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The shrimpers and the crabbers that live in a very modest house on the water, if we make them adopt higher standards, can they afford it?

Rules for resilience

Q: Concretely, what would be these better standards?

A: A really simple way to think about it is “where” and “how” you build in relation to natural hazards, including those exacerbated by climate change.

The “how” include elevating structures, more stringent standards for wind performance, like better roof shingles, hardening our infrastructure — communication systems, bridges, roads, levees… We can also do this by protecting natural systems like dunes and wetlands.

The “where” is what we would often refer to as land use planning.

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Should we be putting a hospital, or a school, in an area subject to storm surge? Probably not. 

A community may choose to say, we’re not going to build a house within 200 meters of the beach. 

Or adopt a gradual disinvestment strategy in extremely risky areas (managed retreat). It’s very difficult to do politically, but it’s happening on a small scale.

Resilience is really about a series of protective measures or choices. It’s not just one. A levee, if that’s your only protection and it fails, to me that’s not resilience. 

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International

UN warns Venezuela earthquakes could affect up to 6.76 million people

Up to 6.76 million people could be affected by the devastating earthquakes that struck Venezuela on June 24, according to an assessment released by the International Organization for Migration (IOM), a United Nations agency.

The organization said the projections are based on available population data and damage assessments, and include up to two million people living in Caracas, the country’s capital.

The estimates highlight the potentially massive humanitarian impact of the disaster, the IOM warned.

Entire buildings collapsed in La Guaira, a coastal area north of Caracas, following the powerful twin earthquakes that reached magnitudes of 7.2 and 7.5 on Wednesday.

The national death toll has risen to 920, while rescue teams continue searching for people trapped beneath the rubble in coastal regions and other affected areas.

UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher told AFP on Friday that more than 50,000 people were reported missing.

The IOM also revealed that it worked with Microsoft’s artificial intelligence laboratory on an initial satellite mapping analysis, which showed that 31.5% of buildings in the town of Catia La Mar had suffered damage.

Authorities and international rescue teams continue operations as Venezuela faces one of its largest humanitarian emergencies in recent years.

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International

United Nations Coordinates Relief Efforts as Venezuela Death Toll Rises After Twin Quakes

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres on Thursday expressed his condolences to the people of Venezuela following the two devastating earthquakes that struck the country and highlighted the ongoing coordination between UN humanitarian teams and interim President Delcy Rodríguez.

Speaking during the UN’s daily press briefing, spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said Guterres was deeply saddened by the loss of life and widespread destruction caused by the disaster.

“The Secretary-General is deeply distressed by the loss of life and the widespread devastation caused by the earthquakes that struck Venezuela yesterday. He extends his heartfelt condolences to the families of the victims and wishes a speedy recovery to those injured,” Dujarric stated.

Venezuela was struck on Wednesday by two powerful earthquakes measuring 7.2 and 7.5 in magnitude. According to official figures, the disaster has left at least 164 people dead and 971 others injured.

Dujarric noted that preliminary reports indicate significant damage across several states, including the capital, Caracas. Numerous casualties have been reported, while other individuals remain trapped beneath collapsed structures or are still missing.

“Critical infrastructure has been damaged and essential services have been disrupted,” the spokesperson said.

The United Nations confirmed that its humanitarian team remains in close contact with interim President Delcy Rodríguez and other relevant authorities as emergency operations continue.

To support relief efforts, the UN has established a coordination center in Caracas and is assisting local authorities to ensure that humanitarian aid reaches affected communities as quickly and efficiently as possible.

Guterres also welcomed the expressions of solidarity and offers of assistance from countries around the world that responded following news of the disaster, underscoring the importance of international cooperation in addressing the humanitarian emergency.

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International

OAS Secretary General Pledges Regional Assistance Following Venezuela Quake Disaster

The Secretary General of the Organization of American States (OAS), Albert Ramdin, said on Thursday that the “hemispheric community” stands ready to provide “full support” to Venezuela and its people following the powerful earthquakes that struck the country overnight, leaving at least 164 people dead and nearly 1,000 injured.

Speaking at the conclusion of the OAS General Assembly, Ramdin expressed solidarity not only with Venezuela but also with Colombia, Curaçao and Aruba, where the tremors were also felt.

“Above all, our thoughts are with these peoples,” he said during his remarks.

Ramdin noted that while many details about the disaster are still emerging, countries across the hemisphere are prepared to assist Venezuela as it responds to the crisis.

“Much remains unknown at this stage, but the hemispheric community will be ready to support the people of Venezuela during this very difficult time,” he stated, reiterating the organization’s commitment to helping those affected.

According to updated information released by the Venezuelan government, the powerful earthquakes have been followed by at least 30 aftershocks. Authorities have also reported extensive structural damage, including numerous building collapses in La Guaira, the area considered hardest hit by the disaster.

Rescue efforts are currently focused on La Guaira, where emergency teams continue searching for survivors trapped beneath the rubble as officials assess the full extent of the damage.

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