International
Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts
AFP | Javier Tovar
To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.
The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.
If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.
The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.
“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.
“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”
Deal-making time
Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.
“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.
Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.
Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).
Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.
Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”
Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.
She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.
“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.
Big spending shelved
Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.
He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.
But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.
Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.
The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.
“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”
Back to the future?
Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.
“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.
“He needs to present plans for the future.”
If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.
“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.
“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”
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Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)
International
Colombia says it would not reject Maduro asylum request as regional tensions escalate
The Colombian government stated on Thursday that it would have no reason to reject a potential asylum request from Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro should he leave office, as regional tensions persist over the deployment of U.S. military forces in the Caribbean since August.
“In the current climate of tension, negotiations are necessary, and if the United States demands a transition or political change, that is something to be assessed. If such a transition results in him (Maduro) needing to live elsewhere or seek protection, Colombia would have no reason to deny it,” said Colombian Foreign Minister Rosa Villavicencio in an interview with Caracol Radio.
However, Villavicencio noted that it is unlikely Maduro would choose Colombia as a refuge. “I believe he would opt for someplace more distant and calmer,” she added.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro also commented on Venezuela’s situation on Wednesday, arguing that the country needs a “democratic revolution” rather than “inefficient repression.” His remarks followed the recent detention and passport cancellation of Cardinal Baltazar Porras at the Caracas airport.
“The Maduro government must understand that responding to external aggression requires more than military preparations; it requires a democratic revolution. A country is defended with more democracy, not more inefficient repression,” Petro wrote on X (formerly Twitter), in a rare public criticism of the Venezuelan leader.
Petro also called for a general amnesty for political opponents and reiterated his call for forming a broad transitional government to address Venezuela’s prolonged crisis.
Since September, U.S. military forces have destroyed more than 20 vessels allegedly carrying drugs in Caribbean and Pacific waters near Venezuela and Colombia, resulting in over 80 deaths.
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned that attacks “inside Venezuela” will begin “soon,” while Maduro has urged Venezuelans to prepare for what he describes as an impending external aggression.
International
Cuba battles out-of-control dengue and chikungunya epidemic as death toll rises to 44
Cuba is facing a severe dengue and chikungunya epidemic that has already claimed at least 44 lives, including 29 minors, according to the Ministry of Public Health (Minsap). The outbreak—now considered out of control—has expanded across the entire country amid a critical shortage of resources to confront the emergency.
Authorities report more than 42,000 chikungunya infections and at least 26,000 dengue cases, though they acknowledge significant underreporting as many patients avoid seeking care in health centers where medicines, supplies, and medical personnel are scarce. The first cluster was detected in July in the city of Matanzas, but the government did not officially use the term “epidemic” until November 12.
Chikungunya—virtually unknown on the island until this year—causes high fever, rashes, fatigue, and severe joint pain that can last for months, leaving thousands temporarily incapacitated. Dengue, endemic to the region, triggers fever, muscle pain, vomiting, and, in severe cases, internal bleeding. Cuba currently has no vaccines available for either virus.
Minsap reports that of the 44 deaths recorded so far, 28 were caused by chikungunya and 16 by dengue.
The health crisis unfolds amid deep economic deterioration, marked by the absence of fumigation campaigns, uncollected garbage, and shortages of medical supplies—conditions that have fueled the spread of the Aedes aegypti mosquito, the primary vector for both diseases. “The healthcare system is overwhelmed,” non-official medical sources acknowledge.
Beyond the health impact, the epidemic is heavily disrupting economic and family life. The intense joint pain caused by chikungunya has led to widespread work absences, while hospital overcrowding has forced relatives to leave their jobs to care for the sick. In November, authorities launched a clinical trial using the Cuban drug Jusvinza to reduce joint pain, though results have not yet been released.
International
Ecuador on track for record violence as homicides hit highest level in Latin America again
Violence in Ecuador is expected to reach historic levels by the end of 2025, with the country set to record the highest homicide rate in Latin America for the third consecutive year, according to a report released Thursday by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). The organization warns that criminal activity is not only persisting but could worsen in 2026.
Official figures show 7,553 homicides recorded through October, surpassing the 7,063 registered throughout all of 2024. ACLED estimates that 71% of the population was exposed to violent incidents this year, despite President Daniel Noboa’s declaration of an “internal armed conflict” in an attempt to confront powerful criminal groups.
According to the report, several factors are driving the deterioration of security: a territorial war between Los Chonerosand Los Lobos, the two most influential criminal organizations in the country; the fragmentation of other groups after the fall of their leaders; and Ecuador’s expanding role as a strategic hub for regional drug trafficking.
Since 2021, violence has forced the internal displacement of around 132,000 people, while more than 400,000 Ecuadorians — equivalent to 2% of the population — have left the country. Between January and November alone, violent deaths rose 42%, fueled by prison massacres and clashes between rival gangs.
The report warns that conditions may deteriorate further. Ecuador has been added to ACLED’s 2026 Conflict Watchlist, which highlights regions at risk of escalating violence. The expansion of Colombian armed groups such as FARC dissidents and the ELN, state weakness, and a potential rerouting of drug trafficking corridors from the Caribbean to the Pacific intensify the threat.
“The president is facing a wave of violence that shows no signs of easing,” the report concludes.
Colombia says it would not reject Maduro asylum request as regional tensions escalate
Cuba battles out-of-control dengue and chikungunya epidemic as death toll rises to 44
Ecuador on track for record violence as homicides hit highest level in Latin America again
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