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Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts

Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP

AFP | Javier Tovar

To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.

If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.

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“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.

“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”

Deal-making time

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.

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Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”

Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.

She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

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“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.

He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

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The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”

Back to the future?

Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

“He needs to present plans for the future.”

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If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.

“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”

  • Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)

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International

Mexican authorities bust Meth Lab and seize tons of drugs and chemicals in multiple states

640 tons of drugs seized in Colombia

Mexican authorities dismantled a clandestine laboratory containing 2.5 tons of methamphetamine in the southeastern state of Chiapas, seized a warehouse with more than four tons of chemical precursors in Guerrero (south), and intercepted a trailer in Tijuana attempting to cross into the United States with 2.7 tons of drugs.

Omar García Harfuch, head of the Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protection (SSPC), reported on Saturday via social media that agents from the Criminal Investigation Agency of the Attorney General’s Office (FGR), along with representatives from the Defense Secretariat, Navy (Semar), National Guard (GN), and SSPC, disabled the methamphetamine production lab in Chiapas and confiscated 2.5 tons of the drug.

A statement specified that the agents secured 2.5 tons of methamphetamine, barrels containing substances used to manufacture synthetic drugs, a firearm, and four trucks. In another operation in Guerrero, authorities located over four tons of chemical substances.

The discovery took place on a property in the community of Margarita Maza, Juárez, used to store materials for synthetic drug production. Sufficient evidence was collected and presented to a control judge who authorized the intervention of the property.

In Chiapas, authorities also seized more than 300 barrels and containers with chemicals for making synthetic drugs, as well as various metal containers and devices.

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Maduro gains support from Venezuelan Assembly amid U.S. drug trafficking accusations

The National Assembly of Venezuela expressed its support this Saturday for President Nicolás Maduro, condemning the United States’ increase in the reward offered for his capture as an “act of aggression.”

U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi announced on Thursday that Washington had doubled the reward to $50 million for Maduro’s capture, labeling him as one of the “world’s largest drug traffickers.”

“We reject the absurd and desperate actions announced by the U.S. Attorney General’s Office, which are clearly illegal and lack any real basis, beyond being a delirious attempt of aggression against the president (…) and against our rebellious and brave people,” said the Assembly leader, Jorge Rodríguez, while reading a letter he said was unanimously approved by the deputies.

“It is precisely President Nicolás Maduro (…) the protector of the strong democracy that shelters us and the leader who firmly upholds the rule of law and justice,” Rodríguez continued. He is also Venezuela’s chief negotiator in talks with Washington.

Bondi accused Maduro of using “terrorist organizations like the Tren de Aragua, the Sinaloa cartel, and the Cartel of the Suns to introduce lethal drugs and violence” into the United States.

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“In 25 years of revolution, we have resisted and advanced despite constant imperialist aggressions. They have not succeeded, and will not succeed, with crude sanctions, criminal blockades, or senseless threats in diverting the noble path the Venezuelan people charted in the free elections of July 28, 2024, in which Nicolás Maduro was elected President of the Republic,” the statement read.

The Venezuelan opposition alleges fraud in those elections and claims victory, and as a result, has boycotted the 2025 legislative, regional, and municipal elections.

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International

U.S. doubles bounty on Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro to $50 million

In February, the United States designated eight Latin American criminal organizations as “global terrorist” groups, including Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua, and the MS-13 gang. In July, it added the Cartel of the Suns to the list — a group Washington claims is led by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Last Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration doubled the reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest, raising it from $25 million to $50 million, U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi announced on social media platform X.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio explained that labeling the Cartel of the Suns as a terrorist organization allows for a strategic shift in dealing with the Venezuelan regime, as it is now also considered a direct threat to U.S. national security, according to El Espectador.

In an interview with The World Over on EWTN, Rubio said the designation enables the U.S. to “use intelligence agencies, the Department of Defense, or any other element of American power to go after them.” He stressed this is no longer just a law enforcement matter, but a national security operation.

When asked at the White House whether he believes it is worth sending the military to combat Latin American drug cartels, Trump responded:
“Latin America has many cartels, a lot of drug trafficking, so, you know, we want to protect our country. We have to protect it.”

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