International
Lula must fight for center to win Brazil runoff: analysts
AFP | Javier Tovar
To prevail in Brazil’s tighter-than-expected presidential runoff, leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.
The long-time front-runner may have won Sunday’s first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters’ forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula (48 percent to 43) and force a second round on October 30.
If Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges — since annulled — that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.
The 76-year-old Workers’ Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday’s disappointing results.
“We’ll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters… those who appear not to like us,” he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch.
“Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone.”
Deal-making time
Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.
“He will have to make some gestures and concessions” to the center-left and center-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.
Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking center-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin — the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race — as his running mate.
Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday’s third- and fourth-place finishers, center-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).
Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes’s Democratic Labor Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.
Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he “supported” the endorsement as “the only exit, under the circumstances.”
Getting the backing of center-right Senator Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters.
She has hinted she is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.
“Make your decision soon. Mine is already made,” Tebet told the divided party’s leadership.
Big spending shelved
Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America’s biggest economy.
He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programs.
But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around — as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.
Lula will have to be “malleable” on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.
The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.
“That’s going to be fundamental,” he said. “That’s how he wins the volatile center.”
Back to the future?
Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.
“He’s only talked about his achievements from his past administrations,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.
“He needs to present plans for the future.”
If that weren’t enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.
“A lot of voters who aren’t necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment,” said Dominium’s Gabiati.
“But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection… and win that vote.”
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Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C),gives his thumbs up next to his wife Rosangela "Janja" da Silva (2nd L), his vice presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin (L), the president of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB) Luciana Santos (2nd R) and Marina Silva of the Partido Rede, during a coordination meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 3, 2022. - After an inconclusive first round of presidential elections, in which ex-president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to garner the 50 percent of votes plus one needed to avoid an October 30 runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilians woke up to another month of uncertainty in a deeply polarized political environment and with renewed fears of unrest. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP)
International
Pope Leo XIV to skip COP30 in Brazil but plans future visit, Lula confirms
Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced that Pope Leo XIV will not attend the COP30 climate summit in Belém, but will visit Brazil “at the right moment,” following their meeting on Monday at the Vatican.
“I invited him to come to COP30, considering the historic importance of hosting a Climate Conference for the first time in the heart of the Amazon. Due to the Jubilee, the Pope told us he will not be able to attend,” Lula wrote on X (formerly Twitter).
Although the pontiff will not be present at the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference, he assured that the Vatican will be represented and confirmed his intention to visit Brazil in the near future.
“We were very happy to hear that His Holiness intends to visit Brazil when the time is right. He will be warmly welcomed with the affection, hospitality, and faith of the Brazilian people,” the president said.
Lula also congratulated the Pope on his first exhortation, Dilexi Te, which focuses on poverty, and emphasized that “faith cannot be separated from love for the poor.”
“I told him we need to build a broad movement of indignation against inequality, and I see this document as a reference that should be read and practiced by everyone,” Lula added.
International
Venezuela calls for continued global pressure to secure ‘just peace’ for Palestine
The Venezuelan government stated on Monday that international pressure “must continue” until a “just peace” is achieved for Palestine, as the official end of the war in Gaza is expected to be signed later today—an agreement that follows the release of surviving Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.
In an official statement, President Nicolás Maduro’s administration emphasized that “the global popular mobilization, along with political and diplomatic pressure from the international community—including Arab and Muslim nations—has been decisive in paving the way for this peace process.”
The statement further urged that “such mobilization must continue until the full implementation of international law, particularly the United Nations Security Council resolutions that call for the withdrawal of occupying forces from territories invaded in 1967 and the establishment of the State of Palestine with East Jerusalem as its capital.”
The Venezuelan government noted that the agreement comes “after the near-total destruction of the Gaza Strip, where more than 65,000 people—mostly children, women, and defenseless civilians—were killed by the criminal bombings of Zionist occupying forces, in flagrant violation of international humanitarian law.”
“Venezuela maintains that true peace can only be achieved through the application of international justice, which must include the investigation and prosecution of war criminals and human rights violators responsible for the atrocities committed against the Palestinian people,” the statement concluded.
The peace accord is expected to be signed Monday in the Egyptian resort city of Sharm el-Sheikh. Neither Israel nor the Palestinian group Hamas will attend the ceremony, which will be attended by around thirty heads of state, government leaders, and representatives of international organizations.
International
Mexico reports 64 dead, 65 missing after devastating central region floods
The Mexican government reported on Monday that 64 people have died and 65 remain missing following the heavy rains that struck five central states between October 6 and 9. The storms left thousands affected and caused severe damage to homes, businesses, and infrastructure across 111 municipalities.
According to Laura Velázquez, head of the National Civil Protection Coordination (CNPC), the fatalities were distributed as follows: Veracruz (29), Hidalgo (21), Puebla (13), and Querétaro (1). The figures were confirmed during President Claudia Sheinbaum’s daily press briefing.
Velázquez also stated that 65 individuals are still unaccounted for in the states of Veracruz (18), Hidalgo (43), and Puebla (4). “We understand the population’s anguish and concern. Everyone will receive assistance. Cleanup operations will be carried out in full, with no resources spared,” President Sheinbaum assured.
The Civil Protection chief explained that the rainfall report from October 6 to 9 showed maximum precipitation levels on October 8 — 280 millimeters in Veracruz and 286 millimeters in Puebla — causing rivers and streams to overflow in surrounding areas.
The updated report also detailed 111 municipalities affected: Veracruz (40), Hidalgo (28), Puebla (23), Querétaro (8), and San Luis Potosí (12).
Since October 10, the Mexican government has been holding continuous emergency sessions in coordination with state authorities to address the crisis and provide relief to affected populations.
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