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Brazil presidential battle enters home stretch with Lula in the lead

Photo: A News

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

Brazil’s deeply polarized election campaign entered the home stretch Thursday with incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva  preparing to square off in what could be a bellicose final debate.

The confrontation will happen in a late-night, live broadcast on TV Globo just hours after a fresh opinion poll signaled a persistent strong lead for Lula ahead of Sunday’s first election round.

Far-right Bolsonaro, 67, is seeking reelection after a controversial first term, but lags behind ex-president Lula, 76, who left office in 2010 with an unprecedented 87-percent approval rating.

On Thursday, a poll by Datafolha showed Lula maintaining a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro with the stated support of 50 percent of respondents who said they intended to cast a valid ballot and not a blank or spoiled one.

To avoid a runoff round on October 30 and win outright on Sunday, a candidate must garner 50 percent of valid votes, plus one.

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Bolsonaro’s stated support remained in a distant second place with 36 percent, Datafolha found.

The incumbent is counting on his evangelical and business-centric support base, while Lula — who served two consecutive terms from 2003 — is appealing to poor, minority and anti-Bolsonaro voters.

Thursday’s TV Globo debate, traditionally the most-watched pre-electoral program in Brazil, will be the last chance for candidates to sway undecided voters, who, polls suggest, number just 13 percent of the electorate.

‘Can change the picture’

Bolsonaro’s camp expect him to adopt an aggressive stance towards Lula in Thursday’s final debate, focusing on the corruption scandals that have damaged the leftist Worker’s Party, and pressing home his conservative values on issues of religion and abortion.

The pair will be joined on stage by five other candidates with no statistical shot at making it to the final two.

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“This is the debate that can change the picture,” a Bolsonaro campaign member told AFP on condition of anonymity.

After the first debate, a month ago, Lula was criticized for seemingly evading the corruption question. His campaign was further harmed by not taking part in another debate, last Saturday, between Bolsonaro and other candidates.

Lula has urged Brazilians loyal to any of the minority candidates — all with less than 10 percent of voter intention — to rather cast a “useful” vote for him, and against Bolsonaro.

The president got a celebrity boost Thursday for his re-election bid from football superstar Neymar, who posted a video on TikTok of himself dancing to a pro-Bolsonaro campaign song.

Grinning, the Paris Saint-Germain and Brazil striker, arguably Brazil’s most famous celebrity, flashed the number 22 — Bolsonaro’s candidate number —  with his fingers as he rocked out to the electronic dance jingle.

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The broadcast election campaign in Brazil ends at midnight on Thursday, although in-person events and distribution of election material will be allowed until Saturday night.

Datafolha will bring out another, final poll on Saturday, the eve of the first round, that could indicate whether Thursday’s debate has swayed any voters. 

Bolsonaro has repeatedly rejected the accuracy of polls and hinted he would challenge any result in which Lula is the winner, saying last weekend: “We are the majority. We will win in the first round.”

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International

Chuck Schumer Unveils Proposal to Strengthen Oversight of the U.S. Presidency

U.S. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer on Thursday announced legislation to establish a federal anti-corruption office aimed at strengthening oversight of the executive branch and preventing future presidents from using the White House for personal financial gain.

Schumer said the proposal was prompted by what he described as President Donald Trump’s misuse of the presidencyto benefit his family’s business interests.

“In just 18 months, the Trump family has made more than $4 billion by exploiting the influence of the presidency,” Schumer alleged.

The New York senator also argued that the alleged corruption has had direct economic consequences for American households.

“The same corrupt practices Trump is using to pocket billions of dollars are also forcing Americans to pay, on average, $3,100 more each year because of the rising cost of living,” he said.

The legislation was introduced alongside Democratic Senators Alex Padilla, Jeff Merkley, and Andy Kim.

According to Schumer, the bill has two primary objectives: “First, to return money to the American people. Second, to ensure that no one can ever steal from them again.”

He added that the proposal would create legal mechanisms allowing citizens to seek the recovery of funds allegedly obtained through government corruption.

“The fact that Trump stole money from the American people does not make it his. Americans deserve to get that money back,” Schumer said.

Under the proposed legislation, any U.S. citizen—as well as state attorneys general acting on behalf of their residents—would be authorized to file civil lawsuits to recover funds allegedly acquired through corrupt practices by public officials.

“Our bill would empower any individual, including a state attorney general acting on behalf of the people of that state, to bring legal action to recover money stolen from the public through government corruption,” Schumer said.

The measure is expected to face debate in Congress, where Republicans and Democrats remain deeply divided over executive accountability and the scope of presidential powers.

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International

Trump Administration Urges Latin America to Increase Defense Spending Against Organized Crime

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday urged Latin American countries to increase investment in defense and security to strengthen the fight against organized crime and drug trafficking networks.

The appeal was made by Elbridge Colby, the U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, in an article published by Americas Quarterly. Colby argued that governments across the region should assume greater responsibility for protecting their territories from transnational criminal organizations.

“It is essential that our neighbors in the region invest more in their own defense and security. There is no reason why any country, especially those facing significant narco-terrorist threats, should spend so little on defense,” Colby wrote.

The Pentagon official described it as “absurd” that some Latin American nations allocate less than 1% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to defense, although he did not identify the countries. He contrasted that with NATO members in Europe, many of which are increasing defense expenditures to 3.5% of GDP, with an additional 1.5% devoted to security-related investments.

Colby, who participated earlier this month in the Conference of Defense Ministers of the Americas in Cusco, Peru, said there is “a historic opportunity” for the United States and its regional partners to strengthen cooperation against drug trafficking and other transnational threats.

He also defended the proposed Shield of the Americas, a military partnership promoted by the Trump administration to combat organized crime and supported by several conservative governments in the region. The initiative does not include Brazil or Mexico.

In addition, Colby said the administration’s security strategy includes an updated interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine, the long-standing U.S. foreign policy principle that historically viewed Latin America as part of Washington’s sphere of influence.

“Of course, we recognize that the Monroe Doctrine is controversial in many circles. But it is also frequently misunderstood,” he said.

According to Colby, the United States is not seeking “exploitation, subordination or dependence,” but rather a region characterized by greater prosperity, stability and security.

He also stated that Washington is prepared to use “all available resources,” including the U.S. Armed Forces, to combat drug trafficking and irregular migration. Colby highlighted ongoing counternarcotics operations in the Caribbean, despite criticism from human rights organizations that have questioned some missions over allegations of extrajudicial killings in international waters.

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International

FAO and WFP Seek $42 Million to Prepare Southern Africa for Unprecedented El Niño

WHO warns of El Niño impacts in Latin America

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) on Thursday appealed for $42 million to help vulnerable communities in southern Africa prepare for what is expected to be an unprecedented El Niño event.

The funding will enable humanitarian agencies to protect millions of people before worsening weather conditions severely affect agricultural production across the region.

Following a meeting with partners in Maputo, Mozambique, the two UN agencies said they still need to secure $42 million of the $54 million required to assist 2.3 million people in Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe.

In a joint statement, FAO and WFP said the appeal marks the first time the two organizations have launched a large-scale, forward-looking call for anticipatory action, warning that insufficient funding could push the region’s most vulnerable families into a major food security crisis.

“The period before the main planting season is critical for taking action,” said José Luis Fernández, FAO Representative in Mozambique. He stressed that early intervention is both more effective and less costly than responding after crops have failed and productive assets have already been lost.

“With timely and flexible financing, we can help farmers access appropriate seeds and agricultural inputs, protect livestock and water resources, and sustain food production before reduced rainfall causes irreversible damage,” Fernández said.

Claire Conan, WFP Representative in Mozambique, emphasized that acting before disasters strike is more efficient and cost-effective than responding after communities have lost their livelihoods. She added that the agency is working closely with the Mozambican government to translate climate forecasts into preventive measures aimed at reducing the impact of droughts and floods.

The planned interventions include supporting farmers, strengthening food production systems and protecting the food security of the region’s most vulnerable households, with the goal of reducing the risk of widespread hunger.

El Niño is a recurring climate phenomenon characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and changes in atmospheric circulation, disrupting weather patterns around the world. Its most recent episode, between 2023 and 2024, was associated with record global temperatures, severe droughts across southern Africa, Central America and northern South America, as well as destructive wildfires, torrential rainfall and widespread flooding.

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