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Brazil presidential battle enters home stretch with Lula in the lead

Photo: A News

AFP | Mariëtte Le Roux

Brazil’s deeply polarized election campaign entered the home stretch Thursday with incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva  preparing to square off in what could be a bellicose final debate.

The confrontation will happen in a late-night, live broadcast on TV Globo just hours after a fresh opinion poll signaled a persistent strong lead for Lula ahead of Sunday’s first election round.

Far-right Bolsonaro, 67, is seeking reelection after a controversial first term, but lags behind ex-president Lula, 76, who left office in 2010 with an unprecedented 87-percent approval rating.

On Thursday, a poll by Datafolha showed Lula maintaining a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro with the stated support of 50 percent of respondents who said they intended to cast a valid ballot and not a blank or spoiled one.

To avoid a runoff round on October 30 and win outright on Sunday, a candidate must garner 50 percent of valid votes, plus one.

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Bolsonaro’s stated support remained in a distant second place with 36 percent, Datafolha found.

The incumbent is counting on his evangelical and business-centric support base, while Lula — who served two consecutive terms from 2003 — is appealing to poor, minority and anti-Bolsonaro voters.

Thursday’s TV Globo debate, traditionally the most-watched pre-electoral program in Brazil, will be the last chance for candidates to sway undecided voters, who, polls suggest, number just 13 percent of the electorate.

‘Can change the picture’

Bolsonaro’s camp expect him to adopt an aggressive stance towards Lula in Thursday’s final debate, focusing on the corruption scandals that have damaged the leftist Worker’s Party, and pressing home his conservative values on issues of religion and abortion.

The pair will be joined on stage by five other candidates with no statistical shot at making it to the final two.

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“This is the debate that can change the picture,” a Bolsonaro campaign member told AFP on condition of anonymity.

After the first debate, a month ago, Lula was criticized for seemingly evading the corruption question. His campaign was further harmed by not taking part in another debate, last Saturday, between Bolsonaro and other candidates.

Lula has urged Brazilians loyal to any of the minority candidates — all with less than 10 percent of voter intention — to rather cast a “useful” vote for him, and against Bolsonaro.

The president got a celebrity boost Thursday for his re-election bid from football superstar Neymar, who posted a video on TikTok of himself dancing to a pro-Bolsonaro campaign song.

Grinning, the Paris Saint-Germain and Brazil striker, arguably Brazil’s most famous celebrity, flashed the number 22 — Bolsonaro’s candidate number —  with his fingers as he rocked out to the electronic dance jingle.

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The broadcast election campaign in Brazil ends at midnight on Thursday, although in-person events and distribution of election material will be allowed until Saturday night.

Datafolha will bring out another, final poll on Saturday, the eve of the first round, that could indicate whether Thursday’s debate has swayed any voters. 

Bolsonaro has repeatedly rejected the accuracy of polls and hinted he would challenge any result in which Lula is the winner, saying last weekend: “We are the majority. We will win in the first round.”

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International

Mexican authorities bust Meth Lab and seize tons of drugs and chemicals in multiple states

640 tons of drugs seized in Colombia

Mexican authorities dismantled a clandestine laboratory containing 2.5 tons of methamphetamine in the southeastern state of Chiapas, seized a warehouse with more than four tons of chemical precursors in Guerrero (south), and intercepted a trailer in Tijuana attempting to cross into the United States with 2.7 tons of drugs.

Omar García Harfuch, head of the Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protection (SSPC), reported on Saturday via social media that agents from the Criminal Investigation Agency of the Attorney General’s Office (FGR), along with representatives from the Defense Secretariat, Navy (Semar), National Guard (GN), and SSPC, disabled the methamphetamine production lab in Chiapas and confiscated 2.5 tons of the drug.

A statement specified that the agents secured 2.5 tons of methamphetamine, barrels containing substances used to manufacture synthetic drugs, a firearm, and four trucks. In another operation in Guerrero, authorities located over four tons of chemical substances.

The discovery took place on a property in the community of Margarita Maza, Juárez, used to store materials for synthetic drug production. Sufficient evidence was collected and presented to a control judge who authorized the intervention of the property.

In Chiapas, authorities also seized more than 300 barrels and containers with chemicals for making synthetic drugs, as well as various metal containers and devices.

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Maduro gains support from Venezuelan Assembly amid U.S. drug trafficking accusations

The National Assembly of Venezuela expressed its support this Saturday for President Nicolás Maduro, condemning the United States’ increase in the reward offered for his capture as an “act of aggression.”

U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi announced on Thursday that Washington had doubled the reward to $50 million for Maduro’s capture, labeling him as one of the “world’s largest drug traffickers.”

“We reject the absurd and desperate actions announced by the U.S. Attorney General’s Office, which are clearly illegal and lack any real basis, beyond being a delirious attempt of aggression against the president (…) and against our rebellious and brave people,” said the Assembly leader, Jorge Rodríguez, while reading a letter he said was unanimously approved by the deputies.

“It is precisely President Nicolás Maduro (…) the protector of the strong democracy that shelters us and the leader who firmly upholds the rule of law and justice,” Rodríguez continued. He is also Venezuela’s chief negotiator in talks with Washington.

Bondi accused Maduro of using “terrorist organizations like the Tren de Aragua, the Sinaloa cartel, and the Cartel of the Suns to introduce lethal drugs and violence” into the United States.

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“In 25 years of revolution, we have resisted and advanced despite constant imperialist aggressions. They have not succeeded, and will not succeed, with crude sanctions, criminal blockades, or senseless threats in diverting the noble path the Venezuelan people charted in the free elections of July 28, 2024, in which Nicolás Maduro was elected President of the Republic,” the statement read.

The Venezuelan opposition alleges fraud in those elections and claims victory, and as a result, has boycotted the 2025 legislative, regional, and municipal elections.

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International

U.S. doubles bounty on Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro to $50 million

In February, the United States designated eight Latin American criminal organizations as “global terrorist” groups, including Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua, and the MS-13 gang. In July, it added the Cartel of the Suns to the list — a group Washington claims is led by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Last Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration doubled the reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest, raising it from $25 million to $50 million, U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi announced on social media platform X.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio explained that labeling the Cartel of the Suns as a terrorist organization allows for a strategic shift in dealing with the Venezuelan regime, as it is now also considered a direct threat to U.S. national security, according to El Espectador.

In an interview with The World Over on EWTN, Rubio said the designation enables the U.S. to “use intelligence agencies, the Department of Defense, or any other element of American power to go after them.” He stressed this is no longer just a law enforcement matter, but a national security operation.

When asked at the White House whether he believes it is worth sending the military to combat Latin American drug cartels, Trump responded:
“Latin America has many cartels, a lot of drug trafficking, so, you know, we want to protect our country. We have to protect it.”

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