International
Ethiopia’s return to conflict: what we know
AFP
Fresh fighting between Ethiopian forces and Tigrayan rebels has broken a five-month truce that had paved the way for the resumption of humanitarian aid and tentative peace efforts.
The facts behind the sudden return to conflict in northern Ethiopia remain sparse. Here’s what we know so far and the questions that still linger:
– How did it happen? –
As has been the case throughout the 21-month conflict, both sides have accused each other of starting the fight and violating the truce that had been in place since late March.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) said government forces and their allies launched a “large-scale” offensive towards southern Tigray at 5 am (0200 GMT) on Wednesday.
But Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government said it was the rebels who struck first.
The tit-for-tat claims could not be independently verified as access to northern Ethiopia is severely restricted.
Later in the day, Ethiopia’s air force announced it had downed a plane carrying weapons for the TPLF that had entered its airspace via Sudan, a claim the rebels dismissed as a “blatant lie”.
– What does this mean for peace efforts? –
Regardless of who initiated Wednesday’s clashes, the prospects for peace in Africa’s second most populous nation appear grim, analysts say.
Even before the latest eruption of violence, the two sides were already at odds over the question of who should mediate potential negotiations.
The Abiy government wants the African Union’s Horn of Africa envoy Olusegun Obasanjo to lead peace talks while the TPLF has been pushing for Kenya’s outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta to broker dialogue.
They have also sparred over the restoration of basic services such as electricity, communications and banking to Tigray — a key precondition for dialogue according to the TPLF.
The government on the other hand says federal service providers cannot work inside Tigray without a “secure environment”.
The Eurasia Group political risk consultancy flagged “the pre-emptive recruitment and training of troops by both camps” — an indication that neither side had put much stock in peace negotiations.
“Amid a resurgence in fighting, neither party will be willing to reduce their leverage for future talks by compromising on key issues,” said Eurasia’s Africa analyst Connor Vasey.
“Rather, they will likely aim to use the next phase of fighting to bolster their negotiating positions,” he said, setting the stage for an escalation in violence.
– How will humanitarian aid be affected? –
Prior to the truce, no aid had reached Tigray by road for three months, leaving the region of six million in desperate need of food.
Even after convoys resumed, fuel shortages have made it difficult for aid workers to distribute supplies.
Last week, the UN’s World Food Programme warned that nearly half the population in Tigray was suffering from a severe lack of food and rates of malnutrition had “skyrocketed”.
The return to conflict will worsen an already dire situation.
On Wednesday, the UN said the rebels had “forcibly entered” a WFP warehouse in Tigray’s capital Mekele that morning and taken a dozen tankers carrying 570,000 litres of fuel intended for emergency relief operations.
“Millions will starve if we do not have fuel to deliver food. This is OUTRAGEOUS and DISGRACEFUL,” WFP chief David Beasley said on Twitter.
– Is this a full-blown return to war? –
In recent weeks, both warring parties appear to have simultaneously broached the possibility of peace while also making preparations for a potential return to conflict.
Whether the latest conflagration leads to all-out war will depend on which view prevails, with analysts urging the international community to play a more active role in bringing both players to the negotiating table.
In a statement dated August 23, TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael said the rebels had participated in “two rounds of confidential face-to-face” meetings with top Ethiopian officials, the first acknowledgement by either side of direct talks.
The government has not confirmed the existence of such talks, but last week an official committee tasked with looking into negotiations called for a formal ceasefire in a proposal it planned to submit to the AU.
The eruption of hostilities is “a deafening warning to the key international and regional actors that they must immediately ensure peace talks actually occur”, said William Davison, senior Ethiopia analyst for the International Crisis Group think tank.
“They should accordingly instruct the belligerents to issue all of their demands when at the negotiating table, rather than making them preconditions for talks.”
Diplomatic efforts in the past have run into trouble.
The TPLF has accused Obasanjo of being biased in favour of the government, and Addis Ababa in turn has chastised US and EU envoys for urging a resumption of basic services to Tigray, reflecting the scale of the challenge ahead.
International
Mexico and U.S. Launch New Bilateral Security Group to Combat Fentanyl and Organized Crime
The governments of Mexico and the United States officially launched the Bilateral Implementation Group (BIG) on Friday, a new initiative aimed at strengthening cooperation on security issues and enhancing joint efforts against transnational crime.
In a statement, U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ronald Johnson announced that he and Deputy Foreign Minister Roberto Velasco addressed officials from both countries who will lead what he described as a “new phase of bilateral cooperation.” The initiative seeks to curb the flow of fentanyl and other illicit drugs, illegal firearms, and human trafficking across the shared border.
Earlier this week, Mexico’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs had confirmed that senior security officials from both nations would meet in Mexico City on June 12 to review and advance existing cooperation agreements.
Through social media, Ambassador Johnson explained that the new bilateral group is designed to improve coordination between the two governments by placing greater emphasis on implementation, accountability, and measurable results. The effort will also focus on combating transnational criminal organizations operating across North America.
“The participation of 15 U.S. government agencies, working alongside their Mexican counterparts, reflects the seriousness of this effort and our shared commitment to delivering measurable results,” Johnson said.
The ambassador also highlighted several achievements that he attributed to ongoing bilateral cooperation. According to Johnson, maritime drug trafficking into the United States has declined by more than 95 percent, while overdose deaths have fallen by 35 percent.
He further noted that Mexican authorities have seized more than 400 metric tons of illegal drugs and dismantled over 2,300 clandestine laboratories as part of their efforts to combat organized crime and narcotics production.
The launch of the Bilateral Implementation Group marks the latest step in the security partnership between Mexico and the United States, as both countries seek to address shared challenges related to drug trafficking, arms smuggling, human trafficking, and the activities of criminal networks operating across the region.
International
‘El Chapo’ Guzmán again asks Mexican president to seek his return from U.S. prison
Convicted drug trafficker Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán has once again appealed to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to intervene on his behalf and seek his transfer from the United States to Mexico, where he hopes to serve the remainder of his prison sentence.
Guzmán, the former leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, is currently serving a sentence of more than 50 years in the United States after being convicted in 2019 on multiple charges, including drug trafficking and money laundering.
According to reports, the latest request was made in a letter dated June 2, one of several messages that Guzmán has reportedly sent to Sheinbaum in recent months in an effort to secure his repatriation. In the letter, he expresses hope that the Mexican government can support the efforts of his legal team.
Written in English and by hand, the letter asks that he be allowed to complete his sentence in Mexico, arguing that such a transfer would enable him to receive visits from family members more easily.
Guzmán is currently being held at the United States Penitentiary Administrative Maximum Facility in Florence, Colorado, commonly known as the “Alcatraz of the Rockies,” one of the most secure prisons in the United States.
As in previous communications, the former cartel leader complained about his prison conditions, stating that he remains in near-total isolation and has little to no contact with other inmates.
He also reiterated his long-standing claim that he did not receive a fair trial in the United States and argued that the Mexican government bears responsibility for much of the violence associated with organized crime in the country.
In the letter, Guzmán maintains that his actions were motivated by a desire to protect himself and his family amid the violence linked to criminal organizations in Mexico.
Mexican authorities have not publicly indicated whether they plan to respond to the request. Guzmán remains one of the most notorious figures in the history of international drug trafficking and is serving his sentence under some of the strictest security measures in the U.S. prison system.
Central America
U.S. Authorities Accuse Guatemalan Nationals of Using False Information to Sponsor Migrant Minors
Senior officials from the U.S. Department of Justice and the Department of Homeland Security announced Thursday criminal charges against three Guatemalan citizens accused of using false information to sponsor migrant children who crossed the U.S.-Mexico border without a parent or guardian.
According to an indictment filed in Ohio, Maritza Cahuec Coc allegedly submitted at least 12 sponsorship applications, several of which were filed under aliases or contained materially false statements intended to secure custody of the minors.
Under U.S. procedures, unaccompanied migrant children apprehended at the southern border are placed in the custody of the Department of Health and Human Services, which is responsible for their care until they can be released to a qualified sponsor, such as a parent or relative living in the United States.
Prosecutors allege that Cahuec Coc, who reportedly entered the United States illegally in 2018, received payments between late 2020 and 2023 for helping bring 12 migrant minors into the country. Authorities claim she submitted fraudulent documents and misleading information to obtain approval for the sponsorship requests.
The case was announced during a joint press conference led by Acting Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche and Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin. However, officials provided limited details about the investigation and instead focused much of their remarks on criticizing immigration policies implemented under the previous administration.
Republican lawmakers and Trump administration officials have frequently pointed to the increase in unaccompanied migrant children arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border during President Joe Biden’s term, arguing that the government failed to adequately oversee their care and placement.
During Thursday’s briefing, A. Tysen Duva, Assistant Attorney General for the Justice Department’s Criminal Division, alleged that Cahuec Coc used the identities of other individuals and falsely claimed family relationships in order to obtain custody of the children.
“Maritza submitted sponsorship applications using other people’s identities and falsely represented that the minors were the children of close relatives in order to secure their release,” Duva said.
The case remains under investigation, and federal authorities have not yet disclosed additional information regarding the other two Guatemalan nationals charged in connection with the alleged scheme.
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