International
Ethiopia’s return to conflict: what we know
AFP
Fresh fighting between Ethiopian forces and Tigrayan rebels has broken a five-month truce that had paved the way for the resumption of humanitarian aid and tentative peace efforts.
The facts behind the sudden return to conflict in northern Ethiopia remain sparse. Here’s what we know so far and the questions that still linger:
– How did it happen? –
As has been the case throughout the 21-month conflict, both sides have accused each other of starting the fight and violating the truce that had been in place since late March.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) said government forces and their allies launched a “large-scale” offensive towards southern Tigray at 5 am (0200 GMT) on Wednesday.
But Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government said it was the rebels who struck first.
The tit-for-tat claims could not be independently verified as access to northern Ethiopia is severely restricted.
Later in the day, Ethiopia’s air force announced it had downed a plane carrying weapons for the TPLF that had entered its airspace via Sudan, a claim the rebels dismissed as a “blatant lie”.
– What does this mean for peace efforts? –
Regardless of who initiated Wednesday’s clashes, the prospects for peace in Africa’s second most populous nation appear grim, analysts say.
Even before the latest eruption of violence, the two sides were already at odds over the question of who should mediate potential negotiations.
The Abiy government wants the African Union’s Horn of Africa envoy Olusegun Obasanjo to lead peace talks while the TPLF has been pushing for Kenya’s outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta to broker dialogue.
They have also sparred over the restoration of basic services such as electricity, communications and banking to Tigray — a key precondition for dialogue according to the TPLF.
The government on the other hand says federal service providers cannot work inside Tigray without a “secure environment”.
The Eurasia Group political risk consultancy flagged “the pre-emptive recruitment and training of troops by both camps” — an indication that neither side had put much stock in peace negotiations.
“Amid a resurgence in fighting, neither party will be willing to reduce their leverage for future talks by compromising on key issues,” said Eurasia’s Africa analyst Connor Vasey.
“Rather, they will likely aim to use the next phase of fighting to bolster their negotiating positions,” he said, setting the stage for an escalation in violence.
– How will humanitarian aid be affected? –
Prior to the truce, no aid had reached Tigray by road for three months, leaving the region of six million in desperate need of food.
Even after convoys resumed, fuel shortages have made it difficult for aid workers to distribute supplies.
Last week, the UN’s World Food Programme warned that nearly half the population in Tigray was suffering from a severe lack of food and rates of malnutrition had “skyrocketed”.
The return to conflict will worsen an already dire situation.
On Wednesday, the UN said the rebels had “forcibly entered” a WFP warehouse in Tigray’s capital Mekele that morning and taken a dozen tankers carrying 570,000 litres of fuel intended for emergency relief operations.
“Millions will starve if we do not have fuel to deliver food. This is OUTRAGEOUS and DISGRACEFUL,” WFP chief David Beasley said on Twitter.
– Is this a full-blown return to war? –
In recent weeks, both warring parties appear to have simultaneously broached the possibility of peace while also making preparations for a potential return to conflict.
Whether the latest conflagration leads to all-out war will depend on which view prevails, with analysts urging the international community to play a more active role in bringing both players to the negotiating table.
In a statement dated August 23, TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael said the rebels had participated in “two rounds of confidential face-to-face” meetings with top Ethiopian officials, the first acknowledgement by either side of direct talks.
The government has not confirmed the existence of such talks, but last week an official committee tasked with looking into negotiations called for a formal ceasefire in a proposal it planned to submit to the AU.
The eruption of hostilities is “a deafening warning to the key international and regional actors that they must immediately ensure peace talks actually occur”, said William Davison, senior Ethiopia analyst for the International Crisis Group think tank.
“They should accordingly instruct the belligerents to issue all of their demands when at the negotiating table, rather than making them preconditions for talks.”
Diplomatic efforts in the past have run into trouble.
The TPLF has accused Obasanjo of being biased in favour of the government, and Addis Ababa in turn has chastised US and EU envoys for urging a resumption of basic services to Tigray, reflecting the scale of the challenge ahead.
International
Kristi Noem credits Trump for mass migrant deportations by mexican president
U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem claimed that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has deported “more than half a million” migrants due to pressure from former President Donald Trump.
During a cabinet meeting highlighting the “achievements” of Trump’s administration in its first 100 days, Noem asserted that under the Republican leader’s influence, “Mexico has finally come to the table” to negotiate on migration and fentanyl trafficking.
“The president of Mexico told me she has returned just over half a million people before they reached our border,” Noem stated, criticizing media reports that suggest the Biden administration deported more migrants than Trump’s.
“I wish those deportations were counted,” Noem added, “because those people never made it to our border—she sent them back because you made her.” She went on to thank Trump: “They never made it here because they got the message—because you were so aggressive.”
Noem has made controversial claims about Sheinbaum in the past, prompting the Mexican leader to refute them.
On April 1, Sheinbaum responded to one such statement by declaring, “The president answers to only one authority, and that is the people of Mexico,” after Noem said on Fox News that she gave Sheinbaum “a list of things Trump would like to see” and that Mexico’s actions would determine whether Trump granted tariff relief.
International
Vatican releases special “Sede Vacante” stamps ahead of papal transition
he Vatican’s post offices and select collector shops began selling special edition stamps this week to mark the period between the death of Pope Francis and the election of his successor.
Known as “Sede Vacante” stamps, they feature an image used on official Vatican documents during the interregnum between popes — two crossed keys without the papal tiara. These stamps went on sale Monday and will remain valid for postal use only until the new pontiff appears at the window overlooking St. Peter’s Square.
Until then, they can be used to send letters, postcards, and parcels. “Once the new pope is elected, the stamps lose their postal validity, but their collectible value rises,” said Francesco Santarossa, who runs a collectors’ shop across from St. Peter’s Square.
The Vatican has issued the stamps in four denominations: €1.25, €1.30, €2.45, and €3.20. Each is inscribed with “Città del Vaticano” and “Sede Vacante MMXXV” — Latin for “Vacant See 2025.”
International
Conclave to choose pope Francis’ successor could begin in early may
The conclave, which in the coming weeks must choose the successor to Pope Francis, will strictly follow a precise protocol refined over centuries.
The 135 cardinal electors, all under the age of 80, will cast their votes four times a day — except on the first day — until one candidate secures a two-thirds majority. The result will be announced to the world through the burning of the ballots with a chemical that produces the eagerly awaited white smoke, accompanied by the traditional cry of “Habemus Papam.”
The start date for the conclave could be announced today, as the cardinals are set to hold their fifth meeting since the pope’s passing. Luxembourg Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich suggested it could begin on May 5 or 6, following the traditional nine days of mourning. According to German Cardinal Reinhard Marx, the conclave could last only “a few days.”
Although the late Argentine pontiff appointed the majority of the cardinal electors, this does not necessarily ensure the selection of a like-minded successor. Francis’ leadership style differed significantly from that of his predecessor, Benedict XVI, a German theologian who was less fond of large public gatherings. It also marked a contrast with the popular Polish pope, John Paul II.
The Argentine Jesuit’s reformist papacy drew strong criticism from more conservative sectors of the Church, who are hoping for a doctrinally focused shift. His tenure was marked by efforts to combat clerical sexual abuse, elevate the role of women and laypeople, and advocate for the poor and migrants, among other causes.
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