International
Ethiopia’s return to conflict: what we know
AFP
Fresh fighting between Ethiopian forces and Tigrayan rebels has broken a five-month truce that had paved the way for the resumption of humanitarian aid and tentative peace efforts.
The facts behind the sudden return to conflict in northern Ethiopia remain sparse. Here’s what we know so far and the questions that still linger:
– How did it happen? –
As has been the case throughout the 21-month conflict, both sides have accused each other of starting the fight and violating the truce that had been in place since late March.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) said government forces and their allies launched a “large-scale” offensive towards southern Tigray at 5 am (0200 GMT) on Wednesday.
But Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government said it was the rebels who struck first.
The tit-for-tat claims could not be independently verified as access to northern Ethiopia is severely restricted.
Later in the day, Ethiopia’s air force announced it had downed a plane carrying weapons for the TPLF that had entered its airspace via Sudan, a claim the rebels dismissed as a “blatant lie”.
– What does this mean for peace efforts? –
Regardless of who initiated Wednesday’s clashes, the prospects for peace in Africa’s second most populous nation appear grim, analysts say.
Even before the latest eruption of violence, the two sides were already at odds over the question of who should mediate potential negotiations.
The Abiy government wants the African Union’s Horn of Africa envoy Olusegun Obasanjo to lead peace talks while the TPLF has been pushing for Kenya’s outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta to broker dialogue.
They have also sparred over the restoration of basic services such as electricity, communications and banking to Tigray — a key precondition for dialogue according to the TPLF.
The government on the other hand says federal service providers cannot work inside Tigray without a “secure environment”.
The Eurasia Group political risk consultancy flagged “the pre-emptive recruitment and training of troops by both camps” — an indication that neither side had put much stock in peace negotiations.
“Amid a resurgence in fighting, neither party will be willing to reduce their leverage for future talks by compromising on key issues,” said Eurasia’s Africa analyst Connor Vasey.
“Rather, they will likely aim to use the next phase of fighting to bolster their negotiating positions,” he said, setting the stage for an escalation in violence.
– How will humanitarian aid be affected? –
Prior to the truce, no aid had reached Tigray by road for three months, leaving the region of six million in desperate need of food.
Even after convoys resumed, fuel shortages have made it difficult for aid workers to distribute supplies.
Last week, the UN’s World Food Programme warned that nearly half the population in Tigray was suffering from a severe lack of food and rates of malnutrition had “skyrocketed”.
The return to conflict will worsen an already dire situation.
On Wednesday, the UN said the rebels had “forcibly entered” a WFP warehouse in Tigray’s capital Mekele that morning and taken a dozen tankers carrying 570,000 litres of fuel intended for emergency relief operations.
“Millions will starve if we do not have fuel to deliver food. This is OUTRAGEOUS and DISGRACEFUL,” WFP chief David Beasley said on Twitter.
– Is this a full-blown return to war? –
In recent weeks, both warring parties appear to have simultaneously broached the possibility of peace while also making preparations for a potential return to conflict.
Whether the latest conflagration leads to all-out war will depend on which view prevails, with analysts urging the international community to play a more active role in bringing both players to the negotiating table.
In a statement dated August 23, TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael said the rebels had participated in “two rounds of confidential face-to-face” meetings with top Ethiopian officials, the first acknowledgement by either side of direct talks.
The government has not confirmed the existence of such talks, but last week an official committee tasked with looking into negotiations called for a formal ceasefire in a proposal it planned to submit to the AU.
The eruption of hostilities is “a deafening warning to the key international and regional actors that they must immediately ensure peace talks actually occur”, said William Davison, senior Ethiopia analyst for the International Crisis Group think tank.
“They should accordingly instruct the belligerents to issue all of their demands when at the negotiating table, rather than making them preconditions for talks.”
Diplomatic efforts in the past have run into trouble.
The TPLF has accused Obasanjo of being biased in favour of the government, and Addis Ababa in turn has chastised US and EU envoys for urging a resumption of basic services to Tigray, reflecting the scale of the challenge ahead.
International
China calls for dialogue amid rising Iran-Israel conflict
The Chinese government emphasized on Monday the importance of “creating the conditions to return to the proper path of dialogue” between Iran and Israel, which have exchanged attacks in recent days resulting in more than 20 Israeli and over 220 Iranian deaths.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun expressed deep concern at a press conference over the Israeli attacks on Iran and the “sudden escalation” of the military conflict.
Guo called on all parties to “take immediate measures to ease tensions and prevent the region from descending into further turmoil,” stating that “force cannot bring lasting peace.”
“If the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to intensify or even expand, the countries of the Middle East will be the first to suffer the consequences,” he added, while noting that China “will continue to maintain communication with the relevant parties, promoting peace and dialogue.”
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke last Saturday with his Iranian and Israeli counterparts to condemn the Israeli airstrike on Iranian territory, which he described as a “violation of international law” with the potential to trigger “disastrous” consequences.
In both calls, Wang reiterated China’s rejection of the use of force, defended diplomacy as the only solution to the Iranian nuclear dispute, and offered China’s mediation to prevent further destabilization in the Middle East.
International
Suspect arrested in killing of Minnesota legislator and husband, governor Says
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz announced on Sunday the arrest of Vance Luther Boelter, 57, the main suspect in the killing of Democratic legislator Melissa Hortman and her husband in a Brooklyn Park suburb on Friday night.
Boelter, who also reportedly shot State Senator John Hoffman and his wife early Saturday morning, was apprehended in Sibley County following an intensive manhunt involving hundreds of law enforcement officers.
In a public statement, Governor Walz condemned Boelter’s “unthinkable actions,” which resulted in the death of a woman who “shaped the core of who we are as a state.”
“We cannot become numb to this. We are a deeply divided nation,” Walz said in a statement posted on his X account.
“We move forward not with hatred or violence, but with humility, grace, and civility,” he added.
Expressing solidarity with the victims’ families, Walz said the entire state of Minnesota is in mourning. He also thanked law enforcement for their bravery and professionalism: “They have saved lives,” he emphasized.
“As we heal, we will not let fear win,” Walz concluded. “We must honor Melissa by moving forward with understanding, service, and above all, humanity.”
Throughout Sunday, police and sheriff units searched a rural area in Minnesota for Vance Luther Boelter, a security company director and preacher who, according to Governor Walz, acted out of politically motivated violence.
International
40,000 tourists stranded in Israel amid airspace shutdown over Iran conflict
Approximately 40,000 tourists are stranded in Israel following the closure of the country’s airspace amid escalating hostilities with Iran, the Israeli Ministry of Tourism reported on Monday.
The ministry has set up a virtual office to provide information via email (virtual@goisrael.gov.il) and phone (+972-53-583-5808), as well as a Facebook page called Israel Virtual Tourist Office.
Israeli Tourism Minister Haim Katz is in contact with hotels and accommodations across the country to offer support to tourists in need, the ministry added.
Many stranded travelers are considering crossing overland into Jordan or Egypt to seek flights from those countries. The Israel Airports Authority reminded the public that land border crossings remain open.
Three German tourists stranded in Jerusalem told EFE today that they have not received any assistance from their country’s embassy in Israel, and their primary option currently is to cross into Jordan to catch a flight from there.
Since early Friday morning, Israel launched operations against Iran, targeting military personnel and infrastructure, including energy and nuclear facilities, as well as numerous residential areas in Tehran.
In response, Iran has fired hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel, some of which have struck various locations across the country, leaving at least 24 dead so far, according to Israeli authorities.
Iranian health officials report at least 224 deaths, mostly civilians, including at least 17 senior military officials—nine from the Revolutionary Guard—and more than a dozen nuclear scientists.
The Israeli military has warned that many more “targets” remain, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declared on Monday that it will continue missile attacks against Israel until its “destruction.”
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