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IMF sees heavy hit to German economy from Russian gas stop

AFP

Halting Russian gas supplies to Germany would cost Europe’s largest economy 1.5 percent of its GDP in 2022, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday, as concerns mount that Moscow will further squeeze supply.

This year’s loss would be followed by a negative impact of 2.7 percent in 2023 and a 0.4-percent reduction in 2024, according to an IMF forecast where gas deliveries were assumed to have stopped on June 1.

A potential shutoff “could cause sizable reductions in German economic activity and increases in inflation”, the IMF said in a statement.

Supplies to Germany from Russia are currently at zero as the Nord Stream pipeline undergoes maintenance, after Moscow initially slashed deliveries by 60 percent in mid-June citing a delayed gas turbine repair.

Berlin has rejected Gazprom’s turbine explanation and believes Russia is squeezing supplies in retaliation for Western sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

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Works on the pipeline are due to finish Thursday, with officials watching closely to see if and at what levels supplies resume.

The risks for the economy from a complete shutdown, as well as a weak global economy and widespread supply bottlenecks “loom large”, the IMF said.

The same headwinds meant that German “growth is likely to be muted in the coming quarters”, it said.

In its standard forecast, the IMF sees the German economy growing by 1.2 percent in 2022 and just 0.8 percent in 2023.

Meanwhile, the rising price of energy associated with the gas supply reductions already seen also meant that inflation is “likely to remain elevated in the next two years”, the IMF said.

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The IMF forecast inflation in Germany to sit at 7.7 percent in 2022 and 4.8 percent in 2023.

A complete Russian gas shut-off could potentially increase those figures by up to two percentage points in 2022 and 3.5 percentage points in 2023 in an “extreme” scenario where Europe struggles to source alternative supplies, it said.

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Eight Killed in Series of Armed Attacks in Ecuador’s Manabí Province

At least eight people were killed in four separate armed attacks reported Sunday night in the cities of Manta and Montecristi, in Ecuador’s coastal province of Manabí, one of the areas hardest hit by the country’s escalating wave of criminal violence, local media reported on Monday.

The shootings occurred between 7:50 p.m. and 10:50 p.m. local time and affected several neighborhoods, as well as a family gathering, according to press reports. Police are investigating the incidents.

The first attack took place in the Los Artesanos sector of Montecristi, where a couple was shot dead in a public street.

Minutes later, in Manta’s 12 de Octubre neighborhood, a man was killed while sitting down. Police arrested a suspect at the scene and seized a 9mm magazine, authorities said.

A third incident occurred in the Bellavista area of Manta, when an armed assailant entered a home and shot a man during a family celebration. The attacker was captured by neighbors and sustained injuries.

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The deadliest attack was reported at 10:50 p.m. in the Leonidas Proaño parish of Montecristi, where gunmen opened fire from two vehicles on a group of people, leaving four dead and five wounded.

According to Jaime Salgado, acting chief of the Manta Police District, officers recovered seven 7.62mm shell casings, consistent with rifle ammunition, and 14 .40-caliber casings at the scene.

With these killings, the Manta police district, a port and tourist area on Ecuador’s Pacific coast, has recorded 51 violent deaths so far in January 2026, according to official figures.

The attacks occurred amid a state of emergency declared by the government in December due to serious internal unrest in Manabí, where military operations have been intensified this month, particularly in high-conflict zones.

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El Salvador Launches Fourth Year of Ocean Mission to Protect Marine Ecosystems

El Salvador’s Ministry of Environment has launched the fourth consecutive year of “Ocean Mission,” a permanent strategy focused on the protection, restoration, and responsible management of marine ecosystems, linking conservation efforts from inland mountain ranges to the coastline.

During an event held at the Los Cóbanos Protected Natural Area, Environment Minister Fernando López highlighted the ecological, social, and economic value of the site, which is recognized as the country’s eighth wetland of international importance under the Ramsar Convention.

“We are in one of the most valuable natural treasures of our country, not only because of its beauty, but also due to the enormous ecological, social, and economic importance that Los Cóbanos holds for El Salvador,” López said.

The minister emphasized that this volcanic-origin ecosystem is home to coral reefs and key coastal-marine systems that serve as refuge, breeding, and feeding grounds for emblematic species such as sea turtles, cetaceans, and a wide diversity of fish.

“Protecting Los Cóbanos means protecting biodiversity, community livelihoods, the local economy, and our natural heritage,” López stated.

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He also stressed that Ocean Mission goes beyond rhetoric, focusing instead on direct action framed within the National Environmental Education Policy. “We are not here to talk about environmental education; we are here to practice it,” he said, underscoring the guiding principle of moving from paper to action.

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Convicted gang member challenges Guatemala’s anti-gang law, citing Human Rights Violations

A member of a criminal gang currently facing sentencing for the crime of extortion has filed a constitutional appeal before Guatemala’s Constitutional Court against the recently approved and enacted Anti-Gang Law.

The appeal, submitted by Dylan Smaily Archila García, argues that the new legislation violates his fundamental human rights and claims there were procedural irregularities during its approval process, according to local Guatemalan media.

Archila García filed the motion just hours after the law took effect. The new legislation, passed by Guatemala’s Congress, increases penalties for crimes linked to gang activity and authorizes the construction of a mega-prison, modeled after El Salvador’s Center for the Confinement of Terrorism (CECOT).

Local outlets reported that in his petition, Archila García contends that the approval of the law did not comply with constitutional requirements and requests that the Court issue a ruling to annul the legislation, effectively halting its enforcement.

The appeal further claims that the Anti-Gang Law infringes on due process rights, as it allegedly fails to guarantee a fair criminal trial in which defendants can prove their innocence, undermining legal certainty and judicial security.

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Through this legal action, the petitioner seeks to have the law suspended and ultimately struck down by the Constitutional Court, preventing it from being debated again in Congress.