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Brazil’s Lula gains even more ground against Bolsonaro: poll

AFP

Brazil’s former leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has gained ground against incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro ahead of the vast South American country’s October election, and could even win in the first round, a poll out Thursday found.

The Datafolha survey revealed that 48 percent of likely voters would cast ballots for the 76-year-old Lula, while only 27 percent were supporting the far-right Bolsonaro — a whopping 21-point advantage.

A previous poll by the same institute published in March gave Lula a 17-point advantage, but included scenarios featuring other candidates, some of whom have since left the race.

In late April, a PoderData poll put the 67-year-old Bolsonaro just five points behind Lula.

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Thursday’s poll showed that if only valid votes were counted, excluding blank and invalid ballots, Lula would win the presidency outright in the first round on October 2, with 54 percent of the vote to 30 percent for Bolsonaro. 

If the election were to go to a runoff on October 30, Lula would prevail with 58 percent of the vote, the survey predicted. 

The campaign represents a remarkable political comeback for Lula, four years after the leftist icon — who was wildly popular during his 2003-2010 tenure in office, was jailed on controversial corruption charges.

In a Brazil deeply divided over Bolsonaro’s combative style, social media polemics, weak performance on the economy and chaotic handling of Covid-19, Lula returned to the ring with the immediate status of frontrunner.

For political analyst Creomar de Souza, the poll shows that Brazil’s lingering economic woes could “play in Lula’s favor.”

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Thursday’s poll was the first not to include former anti-corruption judge Sergio Moro, or the former governor of Sao Paulo, Joao Doria, who have withdrawn from the race.

In third place is the center-leftist Ciro Gomes, with seven percent of the vote. 

Datafolha interviewed 2,556 people between May 25 and 26 in 181 Brazilian cities, and the results include a margin of error of two percentage points.

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International

7 in 10 mexicans born poor stay poor, new report finds

Seven out of ten Mexicans born into poverty remain poor throughout their lives, highlighting an urgent need for public policies focused on promoting social mobility through equal opportunity, according to civil society organizations.

The 2025 Social Mobility Report in Mexico, published by the Espinosa Yglesias Center for Studies (CEEY), reveals that 73% of individuals born into the bottom 20% of income households in Mexico — Latin America’s second-largest economy — continue to live in poverty based on income.

The report signals a worrisome stagnation in social mobility, defined as the ability of individuals to improve their socioeconomic standing compared to that of their parents. This lack of upward movement indicates that one’s economic origins are largely inherited, according to CEEY.

Geographically, disparities are stark:

  • In northern Mexico, 37% of those born in poverty remain there.

  • In the south, that number rises dramatically to 64%.

Gender gaps are also evident. Among those born in wealthier households, women experience less upward mobility, with a rate of 47% compared to 53% for men.

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The report also notes that 48% of economic inequality in Mexico stems from inequality of opportunity — placing Mexico among the top ten countries with the highest opportunity inequality across 50 nations analyzed globally.

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International

Spain hits record 46°C in June amid scorching heatwave

36 deaths reported due to heat wave in Nuevo Leon, Mexico

Spain registered a record-breaking temperature of 46°C (114.8°F) on Saturday, June 28, in El Granado, Huelva — a southern town near the Portuguese border — marking the highest temperature ever recorded in June in the country, according to Spain’s national meteorological agency, Aemet.

The temperature was officially recorded at 4:40 p.m. local time, surpassing the previous June record of 45.2°C (113.4°F)set in Seville back in 1965, also in the Andalusia region.

Like many parts of Southern Europe, Spain is experiencing a severe heatwave, with large areas of the country facing temperatures above 40°C even though summer has just begun.

As one of Europe’s countries most vulnerable to climate change, Spain has endured its three hottest years on recordfrom 2022 to 2024, marked by repeated heatwaves and temperature extremes.

Climate scientists have long warned that global warming is amplifying the intensity, frequency, and duration of extreme weather events such as heatwaves and droughts — trends now evident across the Iberian Peninsula and the broader Mediterranean region.

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International

Trump administration sues Los Angeles over sanctuary city policies

The Republican administration of Donald Trump filed a lawsuit on Monday against Los Angeles officials, challenging the city’s sanctuary policies as illegal amid an intensifying federal immigration crackdown.

The Department of Justice accused the Democratic-led city of interfering with federal immigration enforcement, arguing that its sanctuary policies have contributed to “violence, chaos, and attacks on law enforcement” recently seen in Los Angeles.

“The sanctuary city policies were the cause of violence, chaos, and attacks on law enforcement that Americans recently witnessed in Los Angeles,” said Attorney General Pamela Bondi in an official statement.

The lawsuit, filed in a California federal court, names Mayor Karen Bass, City Council President Marqueece Harris-Dawson, and the entire City Council as defendants.

While Los Angeles had long been considered a sanctuary city for immigrants, the City Council officially adopted the designation through a municipal ordinance in November last year, following Trump’s election to the presidency.

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The legal action seeks to limit local authorities’ cooperation with federal immigration agents under Trump’s policies.

With over one-third of its population being immigrants, Los Angeles has become a flashpoint in the battle against Trump’s anti-immigration agenda, which began with his campaign promise to deport millions.

Tensions in the city escalated earlier this month after an increase in workplace immigration raids, sparking mass protests downtown. The situation further intensified when Trump overrode California Governor Gavin Newsom and ordered the deployment of thousands of National Guard troops and 700 U.S. Marines to the area.

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