Despite having been elected mostly by Pope Francis, who died this Monday at the age of 88, the 135 cardinals from 71 countries who will form the conclave that will elect their successor are a heterogeneous group that is not known and without a common idea about the future of the Church, which will make them present themselves in the Sistine Chapel strongly divided.

There are many differences with respect to the conclave that met twelve years ago to elect Jorge Bergoglio: one is the number of cardinal electors, that is, those who are under 80 years old on the day of the pope’s resignation or death, which is much greater than on other occasions, and another, the largest number of countries from which they come.

“Yes, I think that the fact that the 135 voters come from 71 countries could have weight in the conclave, since a candidate needs two-thirds of the votes to be elected. In 2013, that meant 77 votes. In the next conclave, based on the current number of voters, it would be 91. To date, 68 voters come from Europe and North America,” analyzes Irish journalist Gerard O’Connell in his book “The election of Pope Francis: an intimate account of the conclave that changed history.”

In addition, “the fact that many of the cardinals do not know each other so well, except those who participated in the synod, could create some difficulties, so they will depend more on the ‘makers of kings’, who are esteemed and influential cardinals, many of them over 80 years old,” says the also correspondent in Rome of the magazine of the Society of Jesus, America Magazine.

For the analyst of the newspaper ‘Corriere della Sera’ Massimo Franco and author of several books on the Vatican, the conclave that chose Bergoglio “was born with a strong anti-Italian prejudice, because it was a conclave following the resignation of Benedict XVI and if then the unwritten slogan was no to an Italian pope, this time it will be no to a South American pope, perhaps he will probably become a European.”

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Franco assures that “the conservative minority are the ones who have expressed themselves the most, but in reality there is a wide and silent gray area that he has obeyed out of loyalty, although in reality he has disapproved of many of Pope Francis’ behaviors.”

“They come from 71 nations and this is a problem because they are cardinals who do not know each other, who come from peripheral realities not only from a geographical point of view, but also from a demographic and religious point of view,” adds the journalist of the Milanese newspaper.

For Franco, the curial model has failed and also the model of Casa Santa Marta (formed by the pope and his small group of collaborators), so “there will be a discontinuity”.

While Massimo Faggioli, professor of the history of Christianity at the University of Villanova (USA), assures that with respect to 2013, “today there is no factor of a candidate already examined in the previous conclave.”

“Similar to that of 2005 is the situation of division in the Church before the decisions of the pope, which however during the pontificate of Francis emerged harshly also on the part of cardinals and bishops, in a different way than Benedict XVI,” he says.

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He emphasizes that “an essential difference is the international situation, much more complicated and dangerous than in 2013, especially because of what is happening in the US and consequently in the world.”

“There are several cardinals who have been very critical of Francis on certain issues, but have lost influence and voice in recent years. They have been cautious, but in the conclave they could find support among those who are surprised and tired of a pontificate with so much novelty and turbulence,” he emphasizes.

However, O’Donnel believes that “that most substantially share their vision and are committed to synodality.

After talking to many cardinals created by Francis, voters are more likely to vote for a candidate who substantially shares his vision.”

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