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Bashar al-Assad, still in Syria but increasingly surrounded by the insurgent offensive

Syrian President, Bashar al Asad, is increasingly surrounded after the insurgent coalition led by Islamists and with the support of Turkey that launched an offensive against his government last week has advanced this Saturday from different fronts towards Damascus.

The Syrian Presidency confirmed today that Al Asad “continues with his work, and his national and constitutional tasks from the capital, Damascus,” and denied that he had made any lightning trip or left the country, in response to the persistent rumors that he had fled the city after almost five days without news of the president.

Meanwhile, Abu Mohamed al Jolani, Islamist leader of the Levant Liberation Agency – heir to the former Syrian affiliate of Al Qaeda and who leads the offensive – sent a message this Saturday to Syrian citizens and told them that Damascus awaits them as the final destination of the contest.

“I ask you not to waste a single bullet except in the chest of your enemies, because Damascus is waiting for you,” he said.

From northern Syria to Damascus

Lieutenant Colonel Hasan Abdelghani, who acts as military spokesman for the insurgent alliance, said in a statement that his units have entered the city of Al Mashrafah, in addition to 13 villages and towns on the outskirts of the city of Homs.

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He also indicated that the defensive lines of the Syrian Army are “collapsing,” both in the city and on the periphery.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an NGO headquartered in the United Kingdom but which has a wide network of collaborators on the ground both in official areas and taken by the rebels, indicated that the advance of Islamist factions towards the city of Homs has stalled due to the counterattacks of the Syrian Army and its ally Russia.

The Syrian Army reported that its units operating on the outskirts of Hama (city occupied this week) and Homs are carrying out “intense artillery and missile fire against positions and supply lines of the terrorists, achieving direct impacts between them,” according to the official Syrian news agency, SANA.

“The Syrian-Russian joint war aviation also carried out attacks against terrorist concentrations in northeastern Homs, eliminating dozens of them, and destroying their vehicles and equipment,” he added.

The conquest of Homs would leave Damascus without a land connection with the Mediterranean cities of Tartús, a fief of the Al Asad family, and Latakia, the main base of the Russian troops that support the president.

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Three key capitals in southern Syria

While the great offensive is being fought in northern Damascus, the greatest advances of the day came from the south, after the Military Operations Command of the rebels announced that they had control of three capitals in southern Syria.

The capitals are: Deraa, cradle of the popular revolts that began in 2011 within the framework of the so-called “Arab Spring”; Al Sueida, whose population is Drusa and has demonstrated in recent years against the Syrian Government for the living conditions in the country; and, Quneitra, which borders the Golan Heights occupied by Israel.

These cities have been taken by local factions opposed to the government, within the framework of a broad insurgent coalition that, in addition to the Levant Liberation Agency (HTS in Arabic), the groups supported by Turkey, and, in the case of Al Sueida, the Druse population, participate.

The Syrian Army confirmed today that it was retaching its units from Deraa and Al Sueida to reposition themselves in other areas due to the “terrorist attacks” against its troops.

About 50 kilometers south of the Syrian capital

In the north of the province of Deraa, the insurgents indicated that they took control of the city of Al Sanamayn.

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That means they would be about 50 kilometers south of the Syrian capital.

In the province of Rif Damascus, which borders Damascus, protests against the Government took place in the city of Jaramana, where they knocked down a statue of Hafez al Asad, former president and father of the current leader, reported the Observatory, which published a video of the moment, a recording that could not be verified independently.

The city of Jaramana is already located on the outskirts of Damascus and is an area inhabited by the Druse population, the NGO said.

However, a Syrian Army source denounced that “some sleeping cells linked to terrorist organizations are publishing videos on their media channels from squares and streets in areas of Rif Damascus and other provinces, stating that terrorist elements have taken control of them, all with the aim of sowing chaos among citizens and terrorizing them,” the official Syrian agency reported.

The two main allies of the Syrian government, Iran and Russia, and the greatest support of the armed opposition to President Bashar al-Assad, Turkey, brought positions closer on Saturday to call for a cessation of hostilities in the midst of the offensive of the Islamist rebels and to start a dialogue that ends the war in Syria.

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The Doha Forum was the scene of the first contact between the foreign ministers of these three powers that guarantee the ceasefire in Syria and that are part of the so-called Astana Format, a mechanism established in 2017 to find a solution to the war in the Arab country.

Official silence in the US over a possible fall of Al Asad in Syria

Joe Biden’s government considers that there is a growing possibility that the Executive of Syrian President Bashar al Asad will collapse “in days” due to the rapid advance of the insurgent coalition led by Islamists and backed by Turkey, according to five US officials revealed to CNN.

For its part, the CBS network, which cites three US officials, reported this Saturday that “Damaskus is destined to fall,” although, unlike CNN, its sources did not offer a specific deadline.

According to officials quoted by CBS, the Iranian forces defending the Syrian president have evacuated “practically in its entirety” from the country.

Despite these media leaks, the US government has not yet made public a formal assessment of the future of Al Asad, who until just a week ago seemed to be in a stable position after having managed to crush the opposition in fourteen years of civil war.

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The operation coincided with the deployment of a military and police convoy into Imbabura, which has been the epicenter of protests against President Daniel Noboa since September 22, following his decision to scrap the diesel subsidy.

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The official death toll remains at 64, though dozens of people are still missing. President Claudia Sheinbaumacknowledged that the government does not yet know the full situation in many of the isolated villages, which range in population from 500 to 1,000 inhabitants.

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