Argentina has a lot to lose in financial and commercial terms, especially in the agricultural sector, if Donald Trump, once he returns to the White House, complies with his protectionist threats, a real stone in the shoe for the objectives of the ultra-liberal Javier Milei.
Trump’s idea of imposing tariffs on imports of products from China, Mexico and Canada could unleash global effects that would hit Argentine exports at a time when its economy is bidding to get out of the recession.
Without sufficient monetary reserves, Argentina needs a greater flow of investments and a significant increase in its exports, two ways for foreign exchange income that could be seriously affected if Trump complies with his threats when he settles back in the White House on January 20.
The president-elect of the United States has announced a 25% surcharge on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada, as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products, which would not only have economic consequences for those three countries.
An acceleration of the recession
“If Donald Trump finally puts tariffs on imports, it would have several effects for Argentina as a result of the global recession, the negative impact on demand by China and a reduction in commodity prices (raw materials or commodities),” Lisandro Mogliati, an Argentine consultant in international business and foreign trade expert, told EFE.
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The specialist explained that, if there is a tariff increase, there will be an acceleration of the recession worldwide due to the contraction of trade and an excess of global supply.
“In addition, the direct impact that China could suffer would contribute to the slowdown of its economy, which is one of the main markets for the raw materials that Argentina exports,” said Mogliati.
He added that this scenario could also “bring a drop in the price of agricultural raw materials, which is the main source of foreign exchange income from exports of Argentina,” one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of grains and derivatives.
The dilemma facing Argentina because of Trump
The shadows that loom over global trade with the threat of Trump – who had already adopted protectionist measures during his first administration (2017-2021) – come at a time when Argentina faces a dilemma.
On the one hand, it urgently needs to encourage its exports to enter foreign currency and have ‘oxygen’ to start its batten economy.
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On the other hand, Milei has progressively opened imports, not only for ideological reasons – he is a declared enemy of protectionism – but for economic reasons: it seeks to lower high inflation with the import of cheaper products than those produced in Argentina, even at the cost of reducing the trade surplus.
According to official data, Brazil, China and the United States are, in that order, the largest export destinations for Argentina and, in turn, the main markets of origin of their imports.
With a tense global trade, it is likely that competition between countries will be sharpened in the race to try to place surplus goods, and there Argentina, which lacks competitiveness, could have problems.
According to Mogliati, there would be a greater supply of Chinese products that, given the barriers in the United States, would look for alternative markets and “the same could happen with products from Mexico,” a food-producing country, such as Argentina.
Trump and Milei
If Trump raises tariffs and the prices of imported products in the United States become more expensive, the Federal Reserve of that country could raise interest rates to contain inflation, which would also affect Argentina financially.
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“That would imply that many of the funds would return to U.S. Treasury bonds to the detriment, for example, of bonds and other assets from emerging countries, such as Argentina,” Mogliati said.
Milei bets that his alignment with Washington in foreign policy and his close personal link with Trump will help him get new credits from the International Monetary Fund, increase bilateral trade and reach a free trade agreement with the United States.
But for Mogliati it is unlikely that trade opportunities with the United States will improve with a Trump who promises to protect the production of his country, whose agricultural sector is one of the main global competitors for the powerful Argentine agricultural sector.
“In addition, if Trump is thinking of leaving the free trade agreements to manage himself autonomously with the imposition of tariffs, I do not see it feasible that he can reach an agreement with the Argentine Government,” said the expert.
China shows at the UN its “condemnation” of Israel for the “violation of Iran’s sovereignty”
The Chinese ambassador to the United Nations, Fu Cong, showed the “condemnation” of his country against the “violation of the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of Iran” after the air attack launched by Israel against multiple targets in that country, the official newspaper Diario del Pueblo reports this Saturday.
That media echoes Fu’s speech to the UN Security Council on Friday, in which he demanded that Israel “immediately stop all its military actions.”
“China (…) opposes the expansion of conflicts, and is deeply concerned about the serious consequences that may arise from Israel’s actions. The intensification of regional tensions does not interest any of the parties involved,” said the Chinese emissary.
Beijing called on Tel Aviv and Tehran to “resolve their disputes through political and diplomatic means, and maintain peace and stability at the regional level jointly.”
In Fu’s view, the Israeli attack will have a “negative impact” on the negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program: “China has always been committed to the peaceful resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue through dialogue and consultations, and opposes the use of force, illegal unilateral sanctions and armed attacks on peaceful nuclear facilities.”
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This Friday, China had already expressed its willingness to “play a constructive role” to curb the escalation of tensions and facilitate conciliation, in line with its traditional position of active neutrality in the region’s conflicts.
The Israeli attack, which according to Tehran caused dozens of deaths, including senior military commanders and at least six nuclear scientists, targeted key facilities such as the uranium enrichment plant in Natanz. Numerous civilian casualties were also reported.
Israel justified the offensive by claiming that the Iranian regime is secretly developing a program to manufacture nuclear weapons.
For his part, Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, promised a “severe response” and assured that the attack would reveal the “evil nature” of Israel.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres also expressed concern about the bombing, at a time when Iran and the US The United States is holding talks about the Iranian nuclear program.
Donald Trump’s government pauses its program of indiscriminate raides against migrants
The government of US President Donald Trump has decided to pause its campaign of discretionary roundings against migrants in certain areas due to its apparent concern about the growing unpopularity of these methods, according to The New York Times newspaper on Friday.
According to an email to which the newspaper has had access and the confirmation of US officials, the Executive has ordered the Immigration and Customs Control Service (ICE) to pause the beatings that affect the agricultural industry and the hospitality industry.
The spokeswoman for the Department of Homeland Security, Tricia McLaughlin, confirmed in a statement that “the president’s instructions” will be obeyed and the portfolio will also continue to “work to get the worst illegal foreign criminals out of the streets of the United States.”
The decision points out that this campaign of discretionary arrests to try to deport large-scale immigrants is harming industries and electoral constituencies whose support Trump wants to retain for next year’s legislative elections.
The new instructions were transmitted to ICE in an email sent last Thursday asking that “all investigations/law enforcement operations be suspended in work centers in the agricultural sector (including aquaculture and meat packing plants), restaurants and hotels.”
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These new guidelines come in turn after more than a week of intense protests in Los Angeles against this immigration policy and that Trump himself admitted that the raids seem to be affecting the agricultural sector, which in states like California, where beatings have intensified, depend almost exclusively on immigrant labor.
Since his return to the White House in January, Trump has implemented an aggressive policy of hard hand against immigration and as a sample of his Cabinet officials recently held a meeting with the ICE leadership to order them to carry out 3,000 arrests a day, a mandate that seems to be behind the intensification of the raids.
Trump says he knew “everything” about the attack on Iran and assures that the dialogue remains open
US President Donald Trump said on Friday that Washington “known everything” about the Israeli attack on Iran and that the dialogue on Tehran’s nuclear program “is not dead.”
“We knew everything and I tried to avoid Iran all this humiliation and death. I tried hard to avoid it because I would have loved to see an agreement,” Trump said in an interview with Reuters.
The US president insisted on what he wrote today about the attack on social networks, where he said he gave an ultimatum of 60 days to Tehran to reach an agreement.
“We knew practically everything. We knew enough to give Iran 60 days to reach an agreement and today it is already 61 days,” he explained in the interview, in which he said he did not know what the current situation of the Iranian nuclear program is after the attack launched by Israel, which also ended the lives of key military leaders of the Persian country.
Regarding the dialogue between the US and Iran about the nuclear program of the ayatollahs, Trump assured that “he is not dead”, that “an agreement is still possible” and also recalled that on Sunday a sixth round of dialogue is scheduled in Muscat (Oman) that they consider is now in the air.
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“We have a meeting with them on Sunday. Now, I’m not sure if that meeting will take place, but we have a meeting with them on Sunday,” he said.
The United States and Iran have held five rounds of talks on the Iranian nuclear program since April, with Washington demanding that Tehran discard its capabilities both to manufacture an atomic bomb and to enrich uranium, something that the ayatollahs considered unacceptable.
Both Israel and Trump himself had warned of possible preventive attacks on the Persian country due to this refusal by Iran.
