Argentina has a lot to lose in financial and commercial terms, especially in the agricultural sector, if Donald Trump, once he returns to the White House, complies with his protectionist threats, a real stone in the shoe for the objectives of the ultra-liberal Javier Milei.
Trump’s idea of imposing tariffs on imports of products from China, Mexico and Canada could unleash global effects that would hit Argentine exports at a time when its economy is bidding to get out of the recession.
Without sufficient monetary reserves, Argentina needs a greater flow of investments and a significant increase in its exports, two ways for foreign exchange income that could be seriously affected if Trump complies with his threats when he settles back in the White House on January 20.
The president-elect of the United States has announced a 25% surcharge on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada, as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products, which would not only have economic consequences for those three countries.
An acceleration of the recession
“If Donald Trump finally puts tariffs on imports, it would have several effects for Argentina as a result of the global recession, the negative impact on demand by China and a reduction in commodity prices (raw materials or commodities),” Lisandro Mogliati, an Argentine consultant in international business and foreign trade expert, told EFE.
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The specialist explained that, if there is a tariff increase, there will be an acceleration of the recession worldwide due to the contraction of trade and an excess of global supply.
“In addition, the direct impact that China could suffer would contribute to the slowdown of its economy, which is one of the main markets for the raw materials that Argentina exports,” said Mogliati.
He added that this scenario could also “bring a drop in the price of agricultural raw materials, which is the main source of foreign exchange income from exports of Argentina,” one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of grains and derivatives.
The dilemma facing Argentina because of Trump
The shadows that loom over global trade with the threat of Trump – who had already adopted protectionist measures during his first administration (2017-2021) – come at a time when Argentina faces a dilemma.
On the one hand, it urgently needs to encourage its exports to enter foreign currency and have ‘oxygen’ to start its batten economy.
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On the other hand, Milei has progressively opened imports, not only for ideological reasons – he is a declared enemy of protectionism – but for economic reasons: it seeks to lower high inflation with the import of cheaper products than those produced in Argentina, even at the cost of reducing the trade surplus.
According to official data, Brazil, China and the United States are, in that order, the largest export destinations for Argentina and, in turn, the main markets of origin of their imports.
With a tense global trade, it is likely that competition between countries will be sharpened in the race to try to place surplus goods, and there Argentina, which lacks competitiveness, could have problems.
According to Mogliati, there would be a greater supply of Chinese products that, given the barriers in the United States, would look for alternative markets and “the same could happen with products from Mexico,” a food-producing country, such as Argentina.
Trump and Milei
If Trump raises tariffs and the prices of imported products in the United States become more expensive, the Federal Reserve of that country could raise interest rates to contain inflation, which would also affect Argentina financially.
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“That would imply that many of the funds would return to U.S. Treasury bonds to the detriment, for example, of bonds and other assets from emerging countries, such as Argentina,” Mogliati said.
Milei bets that his alignment with Washington in foreign policy and his close personal link with Trump will help him get new credits from the International Monetary Fund, increase bilateral trade and reach a free trade agreement with the United States.
But for Mogliati it is unlikely that trade opportunities with the United States will improve with a Trump who promises to protect the production of his country, whose agricultural sector is one of the main global competitors for the powerful Argentine agricultural sector.
“In addition, if Trump is thinking of leaving the free trade agreements to manage himself autonomously with the imposition of tariffs, I do not see it feasible that he can reach an agreement with the Argentine Government,” said the expert.
Climate-driven rains trigger one of Indonesia’s deadliest flood emergencies in years
A torrential monsoon season, compounded by two unusual tropical cyclones, has triggered intense rainfall in several regions since last week, including southern Thailand, northern Malaysia, and large parts of Indonesia.
Climate change has recently intensified rainfall patterns, as a warmer atmosphere is able to hold more moisture. In Indonesia, desperation is growing among those affected by the disaster due to the slow pace of rescue operations and the distribution of humanitarian aid.
Relief agencies warned that the scale of the emergency is nearly unprecedented, even for a country accustomed to frequent natural disasters.
Across the island of Sumatra, the death toll was revised downward to 770 fatalities and at least 463 people still missing as of Wednesday night. Earlier, the national disaster management agency had reported 804 deaths.
Gathering accurate information on the ground remains difficult, as many regions are still cut off due to flood damage, widespread power outages, communication failures, or a combination of all three.
Russian authorities ban Roblox citing child safety and moral concerns
Russia has blocked access to the U.S.-owned game creation platform Roblox, accusing it of distributing extremist materials and what authorities described as “LGBT propaganda,” state media reported on Wednesday.
The country has repeatedly threatened to ban certain foreign digital platforms, a move that human rights organizations view as part of broader efforts by authorities to tighten control over internet use.
In a statement released through Russian news agencies, the federal communications watchdog Roskomnadzor accused Roblox of hosting “inappropriate content that can negatively affect the spiritual and moral development of children.”
“The game exposes minors to sexual harassment, tricks them into sharing intimate photos, and encourages them to commit acts of depravity and violence,” the regulator claimed.
Last week, the same agency also threatened to ban WhatsApp, the country’s second most widely used messaging app, accusing it of failing to prevent criminal activity.
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Roblox, which is owned by the U.S.-based Roblox Corporation, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
According to company data for 2024, the platform has around 100 million daily users worldwide, nearly 40% of whom are under the age of 13.
Other countries, including Qatar, Iraq and Turkey, have also restricted or banned Roblox, mainly over concerns about the safety of underage users. In the United States, the states of Texas and Louisiana have filed lawsuits against the platform on similar grounds.
El Chapo’s son Joaquín Guzmán López pleads guilty to U.S. drug trafficking charges
Joaquín Guzmán López, one of the sons of notorious Mexican drug lord Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, pleaded guilty on Monday to drug trafficking charges in a U.S. court, months after his brother Ovidio reached a similar plea agreement, according to local media reports.
The defendant appeared before a federal court in Chicago early Monday afternoon and changed his previous plea in the case, the Chicago Tribune reported. U.S. authorities accuse him of forming, together with his three brothers, the cartel faction known as “Los Chapitos.”
The group is believed to have continued the operations of El Chapo, who has been serving a life sentence in the United States since 2019.
Guzmán López, 39, was arrested after landing in Texas in a small aircraft alongside cartel co-founder Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada.
