Argentina has a lot to lose in financial and commercial terms, especially in the agricultural sector, if Donald Trump, once he returns to the White House, complies with his protectionist threats, a real stone in the shoe for the objectives of the ultra-liberal Javier Milei.
Trump’s idea of imposing tariffs on imports of products from China, Mexico and Canada could unleash global effects that would hit Argentine exports at a time when its economy is bidding to get out of the recession.
Without sufficient monetary reserves, Argentina needs a greater flow of investments and a significant increase in its exports, two ways for foreign exchange income that could be seriously affected if Trump complies with his threats when he settles back in the White House on January 20.
The president-elect of the United States has announced a 25% surcharge on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada, as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products, which would not only have economic consequences for those three countries.
An acceleration of the recession
“If Donald Trump finally puts tariffs on imports, it would have several effects for Argentina as a result of the global recession, the negative impact on demand by China and a reduction in commodity prices (raw materials or commodities),” Lisandro Mogliati, an Argentine consultant in international business and foreign trade expert, told EFE.
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The specialist explained that, if there is a tariff increase, there will be an acceleration of the recession worldwide due to the contraction of trade and an excess of global supply.
“In addition, the direct impact that China could suffer would contribute to the slowdown of its economy, which is one of the main markets for the raw materials that Argentina exports,” said Mogliati.
He added that this scenario could also “bring a drop in the price of agricultural raw materials, which is the main source of foreign exchange income from exports of Argentina,” one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of grains and derivatives.
The dilemma facing Argentina because of Trump
The shadows that loom over global trade with the threat of Trump – who had already adopted protectionist measures during his first administration (2017-2021) – come at a time when Argentina faces a dilemma.
On the one hand, it urgently needs to encourage its exports to enter foreign currency and have ‘oxygen’ to start its batten economy.
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On the other hand, Milei has progressively opened imports, not only for ideological reasons – he is a declared enemy of protectionism – but for economic reasons: it seeks to lower high inflation with the import of cheaper products than those produced in Argentina, even at the cost of reducing the trade surplus.
According to official data, Brazil, China and the United States are, in that order, the largest export destinations for Argentina and, in turn, the main markets of origin of their imports.
With a tense global trade, it is likely that competition between countries will be sharpened in the race to try to place surplus goods, and there Argentina, which lacks competitiveness, could have problems.
According to Mogliati, there would be a greater supply of Chinese products that, given the barriers in the United States, would look for alternative markets and “the same could happen with products from Mexico,” a food-producing country, such as Argentina.
Trump and Milei
If Trump raises tariffs and the prices of imported products in the United States become more expensive, the Federal Reserve of that country could raise interest rates to contain inflation, which would also affect Argentina financially.
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“That would imply that many of the funds would return to U.S. Treasury bonds to the detriment, for example, of bonds and other assets from emerging countries, such as Argentina,” Mogliati said.
Milei bets that his alignment with Washington in foreign policy and his close personal link with Trump will help him get new credits from the International Monetary Fund, increase bilateral trade and reach a free trade agreement with the United States.
But for Mogliati it is unlikely that trade opportunities with the United States will improve with a Trump who promises to protect the production of his country, whose agricultural sector is one of the main global competitors for the powerful Argentine agricultural sector.
“In addition, if Trump is thinking of leaving the free trade agreements to manage himself autonomously with the imposition of tariffs, I do not see it feasible that he can reach an agreement with the Argentine Government,” said the expert.
Brazil helicopter crash in Rio de Janeiro kills six, including pilots and international figures
The Rio de Janeiro Civil Police confirmed on Monday the identities of three of the six victims killed in a helicopter collision that occurred the previous morning in the Recreio dos Bandeirantes neighborhood.
All three identified victims are Brazilian nationals: the pilots of the aircraft, Charles Marsillac and Alexandre Souza, and music producer Lucas Brito.
The identities of the three foreign victims have not yet been officially confirmed. They include U.S. singer Oliver Tree, Argentine YouTuber Gaspar Prim—known online as “Gaspi”—and Argentine producer Lucas Vignale, all of whom were listed on the flight manifest.
According to police, forensic experts from the Legal Medical Institute have already collected DNA samples in order to identify the foreign victims, whose bodies were severely burned.
One of the helicopters crashed into a private parking lot, triggering a fire that destroyed around twenty electric vehicles. That aircraft was carrying the pilot and four passengers, including the three foreign nationals.
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The second helicopter, which had only the pilot on board, crashed approximately 100 meters away from the first impact site.
Rio de Janeiro’s deputy mayor, Eduardo Cavaliere, stated that both helicopters were operating transport flights toward Angra dos Reis on the Rio coastline and toward the mountainous region of the state.
Oliver Tree, 32, was in Brazil as part of an international tour. The artist, known for songs such as “Life Goes On” and “Miss You,” had performed to a large audience in São Paulo a week earlier and was scheduled to continue his tour in Europe.
Argentine content creator Gaspar Prim, 23, had built a following of more than two million on social media platforms, gaining popularity for humorous and often controversial video productions that had occasionally been removed by hosting platforms.
Mexico and U.S. Launch New Bilateral Security Group to Combat Fentanyl and Organized Crime
The governments of Mexico and the United States officially launched the Bilateral Implementation Group (BIG) on Friday, a new initiative aimed at strengthening cooperation on security issues and enhancing joint efforts against transnational crime.
In a statement, U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ronald Johnson announced that he and Deputy Foreign Minister Roberto Velasco addressed officials from both countries who will lead what he described as a “new phase of bilateral cooperation.” The initiative seeks to curb the flow of fentanyl and other illicit drugs, illegal firearms, and human trafficking across the shared border.
Earlier this week, Mexico’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs had confirmed that senior security officials from both nations would meet in Mexico City on June 12 to review and advance existing cooperation agreements.
Through social media, Ambassador Johnson explained that the new bilateral group is designed to improve coordination between the two governments by placing greater emphasis on implementation, accountability, and measurable results. The effort will also focus on combating transnational criminal organizations operating across North America.
“The participation of 15 U.S. government agencies, working alongside their Mexican counterparts, reflects the seriousness of this effort and our shared commitment to delivering measurable results,” Johnson said.
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The ambassador also highlighted several achievements that he attributed to ongoing bilateral cooperation. According to Johnson, maritime drug trafficking into the United States has declined by more than 95 percent, while overdose deaths have fallen by 35 percent.
He further noted that Mexican authorities have seized more than 400 metric tons of illegal drugs and dismantled over 2,300 clandestine laboratories as part of their efforts to combat organized crime and narcotics production.
The launch of the Bilateral Implementation Group marks the latest step in the security partnership between Mexico and the United States, as both countries seek to address shared challenges related to drug trafficking, arms smuggling, human trafficking, and the activities of criminal networks operating across the region.
‘El Chapo’ Guzmán again asks Mexican president to seek his return from U.S. prison
Convicted drug trafficker Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán has once again appealed to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to intervene on his behalf and seek his transfer from the United States to Mexico, where he hopes to serve the remainder of his prison sentence.
Guzmán, the former leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, is currently serving a sentence of more than 50 years in the United States after being convicted in 2019 on multiple charges, including drug trafficking and money laundering.
According to reports, the latest request was made in a letter dated June 2, one of several messages that Guzmán has reportedly sent to Sheinbaum in recent months in an effort to secure his repatriation. In the letter, he expresses hope that the Mexican government can support the efforts of his legal team.
Written in English and by hand, the letter asks that he be allowed to complete his sentence in Mexico, arguing that such a transfer would enable him to receive visits from family members more easily.
Guzmán is currently being held at the United States Penitentiary Administrative Maximum Facility in Florence, Colorado, commonly known as the “Alcatraz of the Rockies,” one of the most secure prisons in the United States.
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As in previous communications, the former cartel leader complained about his prison conditions, stating that he remains in near-total isolation and has little to no contact with other inmates.
He also reiterated his long-standing claim that he did not receive a fair trial in the United States and argued that the Mexican government bears responsibility for much of the violence associated with organized crime in the country.
In the letter, Guzmán maintains that his actions were motivated by a desire to protect himself and his family amid the violence linked to criminal organizations in Mexico.
Mexican authorities have not publicly indicated whether they plan to respond to the request. Guzmán remains one of the most notorious figures in the history of international drug trafficking and is serving his sentence under some of the strictest security measures in the U.S. prison system.
