Argentina has a lot to lose in financial and commercial terms, especially in the agricultural sector, if Donald Trump, once he returns to the White House, complies with his protectionist threats, a real stone in the shoe for the objectives of the ultra-liberal Javier Milei.
Trump’s idea of imposing tariffs on imports of products from China, Mexico and Canada could unleash global effects that would hit Argentine exports at a time when its economy is bidding to get out of the recession.
Without sufficient monetary reserves, Argentina needs a greater flow of investments and a significant increase in its exports, two ways for foreign exchange income that could be seriously affected if Trump complies with his threats when he settles back in the White House on January 20.
The president-elect of the United States has announced a 25% surcharge on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada, as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products, which would not only have economic consequences for those three countries.
An acceleration of the recession
“If Donald Trump finally puts tariffs on imports, it would have several effects for Argentina as a result of the global recession, the negative impact on demand by China and a reduction in commodity prices (raw materials or commodities),” Lisandro Mogliati, an Argentine consultant in international business and foreign trade expert, told EFE.
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The specialist explained that, if there is a tariff increase, there will be an acceleration of the recession worldwide due to the contraction of trade and an excess of global supply.
“In addition, the direct impact that China could suffer would contribute to the slowdown of its economy, which is one of the main markets for the raw materials that Argentina exports,” said Mogliati.
He added that this scenario could also “bring a drop in the price of agricultural raw materials, which is the main source of foreign exchange income from exports of Argentina,” one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of grains and derivatives.
The dilemma facing Argentina because of Trump
The shadows that loom over global trade with the threat of Trump – who had already adopted protectionist measures during his first administration (2017-2021) – come at a time when Argentina faces a dilemma.
On the one hand, it urgently needs to encourage its exports to enter foreign currency and have ‘oxygen’ to start its batten economy.
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On the other hand, Milei has progressively opened imports, not only for ideological reasons – he is a declared enemy of protectionism – but for economic reasons: it seeks to lower high inflation with the import of cheaper products than those produced in Argentina, even at the cost of reducing the trade surplus.
According to official data, Brazil, China and the United States are, in that order, the largest export destinations for Argentina and, in turn, the main markets of origin of their imports.
With a tense global trade, it is likely that competition between countries will be sharpened in the race to try to place surplus goods, and there Argentina, which lacks competitiveness, could have problems.
According to Mogliati, there would be a greater supply of Chinese products that, given the barriers in the United States, would look for alternative markets and “the same could happen with products from Mexico,” a food-producing country, such as Argentina.
Trump and Milei
If Trump raises tariffs and the prices of imported products in the United States become more expensive, the Federal Reserve of that country could raise interest rates to contain inflation, which would also affect Argentina financially.
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“That would imply that many of the funds would return to U.S. Treasury bonds to the detriment, for example, of bonds and other assets from emerging countries, such as Argentina,” Mogliati said.
Milei bets that his alignment with Washington in foreign policy and his close personal link with Trump will help him get new credits from the International Monetary Fund, increase bilateral trade and reach a free trade agreement with the United States.
But for Mogliati it is unlikely that trade opportunities with the United States will improve with a Trump who promises to protect the production of his country, whose agricultural sector is one of the main global competitors for the powerful Argentine agricultural sector.
“In addition, if Trump is thinking of leaving the free trade agreements to manage himself autonomously with the imposition of tariffs, I do not see it feasible that he can reach an agreement with the Argentine Government,” said the expert.
Iranian leader warns foreign powers have “no place” in Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said Thursday that the Persian Gulf is entering a new era marked by a “bright” future without the presence of the United States in the region.
His remarks came during the commemoration of Persian Gulf Day, amid ongoing regional tensions following recent military confrontations involving Iran, the United States, and Israel.
“Today, two months after the largest military buildup and aggression by the bullies of the world in the region and the humiliating defeat of the United States, a new chapter is being written for the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz,” Khamenei stated.
The Iranian leader insisted that the future of the region would be free from American influence and focused instead on the internal development and prosperity of Gulf nations.
“By the power and strength of God, the bright future of the Persian Gulf region will be a future without the United States and dedicated to the progress, welfare, and prosperity of its nations,” he said.
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Khamenei also questioned the effectiveness of U.S. military bases in the region, arguing that they do not provide security even for Washington’s allies.
“Foreigners who come from thousands of miles away and commit evil and malicious acts have no place there except at the bottom of its waters,” he declared.
In addition, the Iranian leader defended new measures being prepared by Tehran to regulate maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including fees for vessels passing through the strategic waterway. According to Khamenei, the policies would generate economic benefits and greater stability for the region.
Regional tensions remain high following the conflict that erupted on February 28 between the United States and Israel against Iran, leading to strategic blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, a route through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply previously passed. The situation has disrupted maritime trade and contributed to rising global oil prices.
U.S. and Regional Allies Back Panama Amid Dispute With China
The United States, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Guyana, Paraguay and Trinidad and Tobago issued a joint statement in support of Panama’s sovereignty, arguing that China’s recent actions represent an attempt to politicize maritime trade and undermine the sovereignty of nations in the hemisphere.
“We are closely monitoring China’s selective economic pressure and recent actions affecting vessels flying the Panamanian flag,” the statement released Tuesday said. “Panama is a pillar of our maritime trading system and, as such, must remain free from undue external pressure.”
The statement comes amid growing tensions surrounding the Panama Canal and the operation of key ports linked to global trade.
At the end of January, Panama’s Supreme Court invalidated the legal framework supporting the 1997 concession that granted Panama Ports Company, a subsidiary of CK Hutchison, the right to operate the Balboa and Cristóbal terminals located on the Pacific and Atlantic entrances of the Panama Canal.
The ruling followed mounting pressure from the United States to curb Chinese influence around the strategic waterway, through which roughly 5% of global maritime trade passes.
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CK Hutchison, which managed the ports for nearly three decades, rejected the court’s decision and accused Panamanian authorities of illegally confiscating its assets. The company has launched international arbitration proceedings against Panama, seeking more than $2 billion in damages.
Following the court ruling, reports emerged of increased detentions and inspections of Panamanian-flagged vessels in China, actions widely viewed as retaliatory measures.
On Wednesday, China’s Foreign Ministry dismissed the joint statement as “completely unfounded and misleading,” accusing the United States of politicizing port operations and warning that Beijing would take steps to protect its interests in Panama.
King Charles III Says U.S.-UK Alliance Is “Irreplaceable and Unbreakable”
King Charles III of the United Kingdom reaffirmed the strength of the British-American relationship on Tuesday during a speech before the United States Congress, describing the alliance between the two nations as “irreplaceable and unbreakable.”
The address, delivered at the Capitol, marked the first speech by a British monarch before Congress since Queen Elizabeth II in 1991 and comes at a time of political tensions between Donald Trump’s administration and the Labour government of Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
“As President Trump himself observed during his state visit to Britain last autumn, the bond of kinship and identity between the United States and the United Kingdom is invaluable and eternal. It is irreplaceable and unbreakable,” the king said.
While reflecting on the upcoming 250th anniversary of U.S. independence, which will be commemorated this year, Charles III stated that the partnership between the two countries “was born out of disagreement, but is no less strong because of it.”
The monarch emphasized the democratic values shared by both nations and noted that major global changes have occurred whenever the two allies found common ground.
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“When we have found that way to agree, great changes have taken place not only for the benefit of our peoples, but for all peoples,” he said.
King Charles also quoted British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who recently described the relationship as “an indispensable alliance.”
Concluding his speech, the monarch described the shared history of the United States and the United Kingdom as “a story of reconciliation, renewal, and an extraordinary partnership.”
He added that Washington and London have forged “one of the most consequential alliances in human history.”
“I pray with all my heart that our alliance continues to defend our shared values, together with our partners in Europe, the Commonwealth, and around the world, and that we ignore calls urging us to become increasingly isolationist,” Charles III stated.
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The king ended by urging both nations to “recommit to one another in selfless service to our peoples and to all peoples of the world.”
