International

Argentina has a lot to lose with Donald Trump’s protectionist threat

Argentina has a lot to lose in financial and commercial terms, especially in the agricultural sector, if Donald Trump, once he returns to the White House, complies with his protectionist threats, a real stone in the shoe for the objectives of the ultra-liberal Javier Milei.

Trump’s idea of imposing tariffs on imports of products from China, Mexico and Canada could unleash global effects that would hit Argentine exports at a time when its economy is bidding to get out of the recession.

Without sufficient monetary reserves, Argentina needs a greater flow of investments and a significant increase in its exports, two ways for foreign exchange income that could be seriously affected if Trump complies with his threats when he settles back in the White House on January 20.

The president-elect of the United States has announced a 25% surcharge on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada, as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products, which would not only have economic consequences for those three countries.

An acceleration of the recession

“If Donald Trump finally puts tariffs on imports, it would have several effects for Argentina as a result of the global recession, the negative impact on demand by China and a reduction in commodity prices (raw materials or commodities),” Lisandro Mogliati, an Argentine consultant in international business and foreign trade expert, told EFE.

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The specialist explained that, if there is a tariff increase, there will be an acceleration of the recession worldwide due to the contraction of trade and an excess of global supply.

“In addition, the direct impact that China could suffer would contribute to the slowdown of its economy, which is one of the main markets for the raw materials that Argentina exports,” said Mogliati.

He added that this scenario could also “bring a drop in the price of agricultural raw materials, which is the main source of foreign exchange income from exports of Argentina,” one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of grains and derivatives.

The dilemma facing Argentina because of Trump

The shadows that loom over global trade with the threat of Trump – who had already adopted protectionist measures during his first administration (2017-2021) – come at a time when Argentina faces a dilemma.

On the one hand, it urgently needs to encourage its exports to enter foreign currency and have ‘oxygen’ to start its batten economy.

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On the other hand, Milei has progressively opened imports, not only for ideological reasons – he is a declared enemy of protectionism – but for economic reasons: it seeks to lower high inflation with the import of cheaper products than those produced in Argentina, even at the cost of reducing the trade surplus.

According to official data, Brazil, China and the United States are, in that order, the largest export destinations for Argentina and, in turn, the main markets of origin of their imports.

With a tense global trade, it is likely that competition between countries will be sharpened in the race to try to place surplus goods, and there Argentina, which lacks competitiveness, could have problems.

According to Mogliati, there would be a greater supply of Chinese products that, given the barriers in the United States, would look for alternative markets and “the same could happen with products from Mexico,” a food-producing country, such as Argentina.

Trump and Milei

If Trump raises tariffs and the prices of imported products in the United States become more expensive, the Federal Reserve of that country could raise interest rates to contain inflation, which would also affect Argentina financially.

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“That would imply that many of the funds would return to U.S. Treasury bonds to the detriment, for example, of bonds and other assets from emerging countries, such as Argentina,” Mogliati said.

Milei bets that his alignment with Washington in foreign policy and his close personal link with Trump will help him get new credits from the International Monetary Fund, increase bilateral trade and reach a free trade agreement with the United States.

But for Mogliati it is unlikely that trade opportunities with the United States will improve with a Trump who promises to protect the production of his country, whose agricultural sector is one of the main global competitors for the powerful Argentine agricultural sector.

“In addition, if Trump is thinking of leaving the free trade agreements to manage himself autonomously with the imposition of tariffs, I do not see it feasible that he can reach an agreement with the Argentine Government,” said the expert.

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International

Two killed in shooting at restaurant near Frankfurt Airport

Two people were shot dead early Tuesday at a restaurant in Raunheim, near Frankfurt Airport, according to local police.

Preliminary findings indicate that an armed individual entered the establishment at around 03:45 local time (02:45 GMT) and opened fire on the victims, who died at the scene from their injuries.

The suspect fled and remains at large, while the motive behind the shooting is still unclear, German media reported. Authorities have launched a large-scale search operation.

International

U.S. counterterrorism chief resigns over opposition to war in Iran

Joe Kent, director of the National Counterterrorism Center, announced Tuesday that he has resigned from his post, citing his opposition to the ongoing war in Iran.

In a post on X, Kent said he could not, “in good conscience,” support the conflict, arguing that Iran did not pose an imminent threat to the United States. He also claimed that the war was driven by pressure from Israel and its lobbying influence in Washington.

In a resignation letter addressed to Donald Trump, Kent alleged that at the start of the current administration, senior Israeli officials and influential figures in U.S. media carried out a disinformation campaign that undermined the “America First” platform and fostered pro-war sentiment aimed at triggering a conflict with Iran.

Kent further stated that he could not support sending a new generation of Americans to “fight and die in a war that provides no benefit to the American people and does not justify the cost in American lives.”

Since the United States and Israel launched attacks against Iran on February 28, at least 13 U.S. service members have been killed, while 10 others have been seriously wounded and around 200 have sustained minor injuries, according to a report published by The Wall Street Journal.

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International

German president warns Iran war could spread and disrupt Strait of Hormuz

The president of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, warned Monday that the war involving Iran could expand and further disrupt shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. He urged a swift end to hostilities between Iran, United States and Israel.

Speaking in Panama City during a joint appearance with Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino, Steinmeier said available information suggests Iran has significant capacity to disrupt maritime traffic through the key oil route.

“Iran has considerable potential to interfere with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,” Steinmeier said through an interpreter. “We should therefore reach an end to the hostilities as soon as possible and call on all parties involved to make that happen.”

The remarks came during Steinmeier’s visit to Panama, the first by a German president to the Central American nation.

The German leader described the possibility of the conflict spreading as “very dangerous,” saying recent developments indicate that such a scenario cannot be ruled out.

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Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump urged allied nations to help ensure safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz after Iran moved to block the waterway in response to U.S. strikes. However, several allies—particularly in Europe—have shown little support for the proposal.

“Some are very enthusiastic, others are not, and some are countries we have helped for many years,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “We have protected them from terrible external threats, and they’re not that enthusiastic. And the level of enthusiasm is important to me.”

Meanwhile, Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s top diplomat, said the Strait of Hormuz falls “outside NATO’s scope” and stressed that “the war involving Iran is not Europe’s war.”