International
Keys to the political crisis in Germany: What will happen after the breakup of the coalition government?
The breakup of the coalition government in Germany opens the way to early elections once the head of government, the social democrat Olaf Scholz, does not overcome the motion of confidence scheduled for January 15, as expected.
These are the keys to the path established and detailed in the German Basic Law towards early elections, which will probably take place in the spring if the date of the motion of confidence is not advanced, as the opposition has already demanded.
– In accordance with article 68 of the Basic Law, the chancellor, as announced on Wednesday, will request a vote of confidence in the Bundestag on January 15, with the expectation that the Lower House will not give it to him and thus early elections will be called that the social democrat Scholz hopes will be favorable to him.
– The chancellor may then ask the president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, to dissolve the Bundestag and will have a maximum period of 21 days to do so.
Once Parliament is dissolved, new elections must be held within a maximum period of 60 days. In this case at the end of March or beginning of April.
A government in office
– After the dissolution of the Bundestag, the chancellor and his ministers will continue to hold their respective positions in office.
The three portfolios occupied by the Liberals that are empty after the dismissal of the Minister of Finance, Christian Lindner, and the departure by his own decision of those of Justice, Marco Buschmann, and Education, Bettina Stark-Watzinger, could be assumed by other ministers, although the chancellor can propose different successors.
The fourth portfolio occupied by the liberals, that of Transport and Digital Affairs, will continue at the personal request of Scholz in the hands of Wolfgang Wissing, who announced that he is leaving his party so that his decision does not involve a burden.
– However, with the dissolution of the Bundestag and the call for new elections, political activity will be paralyzed, since the parties will immediately switch to campaign mode. This could be relevant to the 2025 federal budget if it is not approved, which is most likely.
Then the so-called provisional budgetary management would come into force and only from January it will be possible to incur expenses for which there is a legal obligation.
The vote of confidence
– In the history of the Federal Republic, only four chancellors submitted to a vote of confidence, although only two of them sought, as the Basic Law intends with this option, to obtain the vote of confidence, while three others pursued precisely the opposite: not achieving a majority.
In 1982, Social Democratic Chancellor Helmut Schmidt submitted to a vote of confidence to calm a coalition crisis, although that same year he lost a motion of censure. In 2001, Social Democratic Chancellor Gerhard Schröder used the vote of confidence to secure the approval of the controversial deployment of the Bundeswehr – the armed forces – in Afghanistan.
On three occasions, however, the vote of confidence was a maneuver to pave the way for early elections: in 1972, by Social Democratic Chancellor Willi Brandt; in 1982 by Conservative Chancellor Helmut Kohl; and in 2005 by Schröder.
The first two managed to strengthen their coalitions with this maneuver, but in the case of Schröder, his party lost the elections in favor of the conservatives, who took over the government with Angela Merkel.
International
China shows at the UN its “condemnation” of Israel for the “violation of Iran’s sovereignty”
The Chinese ambassador to the United Nations, Fu Cong, showed the “condemnation” of his country against the “violation of the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of Iran” after the air attack launched by Israel against multiple targets in that country, the official newspaper Diario del Pueblo reports this Saturday.
That media echoes Fu’s speech to the UN Security Council on Friday, in which he demanded that Israel “immediately stop all its military actions.”
“China (…) opposes the expansion of conflicts, and is deeply concerned about the serious consequences that may arise from Israel’s actions. The intensification of regional tensions does not interest any of the parties involved,” said the Chinese emissary.
Beijing called on Tel Aviv and Tehran to “resolve their disputes through political and diplomatic means, and maintain peace and stability at the regional level jointly.”
In Fu’s view, the Israeli attack will have a “negative impact” on the negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program: “China has always been committed to the peaceful resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue through dialogue and consultations, and opposes the use of force, illegal unilateral sanctions and armed attacks on peaceful nuclear facilities.”
This Friday, China had already expressed its willingness to “play a constructive role” to curb the escalation of tensions and facilitate conciliation, in line with its traditional position of active neutrality in the region’s conflicts.
The Israeli attack, which according to Tehran caused dozens of deaths, including senior military commanders and at least six nuclear scientists, targeted key facilities such as the uranium enrichment plant in Natanz. Numerous civilian casualties were also reported.
Israel justified the offensive by claiming that the Iranian regime is secretly developing a program to manufacture nuclear weapons.
For his part, Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, promised a “severe response” and assured that the attack would reveal the “evil nature” of Israel.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres also expressed concern about the bombing, at a time when Iran and the US The United States is holding talks about the Iranian nuclear program.
International
Donald Trump’s government pauses its program of indiscriminate raides against migrants
The government of US President Donald Trump has decided to pause its campaign of discretionary roundings against migrants in certain areas due to its apparent concern about the growing unpopularity of these methods, according to The New York Times newspaper on Friday.
According to an email to which the newspaper has had access and the confirmation of US officials, the Executive has ordered the Immigration and Customs Control Service (ICE) to pause the beatings that affect the agricultural industry and the hospitality industry.
The spokeswoman for the Department of Homeland Security, Tricia McLaughlin, confirmed in a statement that “the president’s instructions” will be obeyed and the portfolio will also continue to “work to get the worst illegal foreign criminals out of the streets of the United States.”
The decision points out that this campaign of discretionary arrests to try to deport large-scale immigrants is harming industries and electoral constituencies whose support Trump wants to retain for next year’s legislative elections.
The new instructions were transmitted to ICE in an email sent last Thursday asking that “all investigations/law enforcement operations be suspended in work centers in the agricultural sector (including aquaculture and meat packing plants), restaurants and hotels.”
These new guidelines come in turn after more than a week of intense protests in Los Angeles against this immigration policy and that Trump himself admitted that the raids seem to be affecting the agricultural sector, which in states like California, where beatings have intensified, depend almost exclusively on immigrant labor.
Since his return to the White House in January, Trump has implemented an aggressive policy of hard hand against immigration and as a sample of his Cabinet officials recently held a meeting with the ICE leadership to order them to carry out 3,000 arrests a day, a mandate that seems to be behind the intensification of the raids.
International
Trump says he knew “everything” about the attack on Iran and assures that the dialogue remains open
US President Donald Trump said on Friday that Washington “known everything” about the Israeli attack on Iran and that the dialogue on Tehran’s nuclear program “is not dead.”
“We knew everything and I tried to avoid Iran all this humiliation and death. I tried hard to avoid it because I would have loved to see an agreement,” Trump said in an interview with Reuters.
The US president insisted on what he wrote today about the attack on social networks, where he said he gave an ultimatum of 60 days to Tehran to reach an agreement.
“We knew practically everything. We knew enough to give Iran 60 days to reach an agreement and today it is already 61 days,” he explained in the interview, in which he said he did not know what the current situation of the Iranian nuclear program is after the attack launched by Israel, which also ended the lives of key military leaders of the Persian country.
Regarding the dialogue between the US and Iran about the nuclear program of the ayatollahs, Trump assured that “he is not dead”, that “an agreement is still possible” and also recalled that on Sunday a sixth round of dialogue is scheduled in Muscat (Oman) that they consider is now in the air.
“We have a meeting with them on Sunday. Now, I’m not sure if that meeting will take place, but we have a meeting with them on Sunday,” he said.
The United States and Iran have held five rounds of talks on the Iranian nuclear program since April, with Washington demanding that Tehran discard its capabilities both to manufacture an atomic bomb and to enrich uranium, something that the ayatollahs considered unacceptable.
Both Israel and Trump himself had warned of possible preventive attacks on the Persian country due to this refusal by Iran.
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