International
One month for the Trump vs Harris: US begins the countdown with the prevailing uncertainty
There is exactly one month left for the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November of this leap year, the day on which the United States traditionally celebrates its presidential elections, and uncertainty reigns on the horizon. With Kamala Harris slightly ahead of Donald Trump according to polls, the battle will be defined in the key states.
And it is on them that both candidates have focused their efforts in recent weeks and, presumably, they will do so during this month.
After passing through Georgia on Friday, one of the states affected by Hurricane Helene, this Saturday Trump visits Pennsylvania, the municipality of Butler, the place where on July 13 he was wounded in the ear by a gunshot in his first attempted attack.
And Harris, who broke into the campaign by surprise on July 21, after Joe Biden’s withdrawal, went to Michigan yesterday and today travels to North Carolina to receive information on the recovery tasks of the deadliest hurricane since Katrina in 2005, with more than two hundred deaths in the country.
These four, along with Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, are the key or hinged states, so tight their results will presumably be since their population is not of a marked political sign as happens in others such as California (democrat since the 90s) or Texas (republican since the 80s).
In electoral language they are known as the ‘battleground states’ and it is there that the candidates fight hardest, with face-to-face acts, advertising and interviews with local media.
Looking for votes in county by county
In a media conversation on Friday, the president of the Democratic National Committee, Jaime Harrison, said that the party has been “on the ground since the first days of this campaign,” talking “to all voters in all the disputed electoral districts.”
The training has “312 offices in the states in dispute” and the annual investment in the state parties has been increased by 25%.
According to political scientist David McCuan, a professor at Sonoma State University, of the 3,100 existing counties in the United States “approximately 15 or 20 are the most important for the outcome of the presidential elections.”
That’s why in the campaign the focus is on names like Northampton or Erie, in Pennsylvania, Maricopa in Arizona or Gwinnett and Fulton in Georgia. “These are county-by-county elections, not even state by state, to reach 270 electoral votes,” he told EFE.
And it is that in the United States citizens do not elect their president directly but through the 538 members of the Electoral College, who meet on a date after the elections to vote for the president based on what citizens choose at the polls.
Those 538 members are distributed proportionally according to the population among the 50 states and the District of Columbia and the most voted candidate takes all the voters, with the exception of Maine and Nebraska. To be president, one of the candidates must get 270 voters.
Polls show the close Trump-Harris battle in the elections
According to the FiveThirtyEight portal, which prepares an average among the polls for the elections, Harris is ahead of Trump by 48.4% compared to 45.9%, although in the key states the distance is much smaller.
An average of polls prepared by the New York Times gives victory to Harris in Pennsylvania (by less than one point), Nevada (1 point), Michigan (1 point) and Wisconsin (2 points). Meanwhile, Trump would achieve North Carolina (less than one point), Georgia (2 points) and Arizona (2 points).
For Lanae Erickson, political scientist at the Third Way think center, the level of participation will be key in these elections.
“In 2016 many people stayed at home because they did not believe that Trump could win and they were not really motivated by any of the candidates,” while in 2020 “the Democrats came out en masse,” he tells EFE.
There Harris has an advantage, because after Biden’s abandonment many citizens see her as “the agent of change” that will make them go out to vote.
For Aaron Kall, political scientist and author of the book “Debating The Donald,” this will be a month in which “campaigns will intensify their work in terms of travel, interviews with the media and rallies.”
“I think the sense of urgency is finally reaching the campaigns since there will be no more opportunities for debates,” because the former president has not accepted a second debate with the Democrat after the defeat he suffered in the first and only of his clashes.
International
Erin brings strong winds and storm surge despite weakening offshore
Hurricane Erin weakened to a Category 2 storm on Tuesday but continues to pose a threat to parts of the U.S. East Coast with potentially dangerous flooding, according to meteorologists.
Although the hurricane’s eye is expected to remain offshore, experts are concerned about Erin’s size, as strong winds extend hundreds of kilometers beyond the storm’s center.
In its 18:00 GMT bulletin, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) lifted tropical storm warnings for the Bahamasand Turks and Caicos Islands, but kept them in effect for parts of North Carolina.
Erin was located several hundred kilometers southeast of North Carolina and was moving northwestward.
“This means there is a risk of potentially life-threatening flooding of 60 to 120 centimeters above ground level,” said NHC Director Michael Brennan.
He also warned of the possibility of destructive waves, combined with storm surge, that could cause severe damage to beaches and coastal areas, making roads impassable.
International
Three U.S. Warships deploy near Venezuela to combat drug trafficking
Three U.S. naval vessels are moving toward the coasts of Venezuela, according to international media reports on Tuesday, after White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt confirmed that President Donald Trump is ready to combat and curb international drug trafficking.
Reports indicate that the ships will reach Venezuelan waters within the next 36 hours as part of a recent U.S. deployment aimed at countering international narcotics operations.
The announcement coincides with Leavitt’s statement that Trump is prepared to “use the full extent of his power” to halt drug flows into the United States. The naval deployment involves approximately 4,000 military personnel.
“The President has been clear and consistent. He is ready to use every element of U.S. power to prevent drugs from flooding our country and to bring those responsible to justice. The Maduro regime is not the legitimate government of Venezuela—it is a narco-terror cartel,” the spokesperson said during a press conference.
International
Cuban authorities free salvadoran convicted in 1997 hotel bombing
Salvadoran national Otto René Rodríguez Llerena was released after serving a 30-year prison sentence for his involvement in a terrorist attack at a hotel in Cuba in 1997, the Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported.
During his trial, Rodríguez Llerena admitted to placing an explosive device at the Meliá Cohiba Hotel under the orders of anti-Castro exile leaders. He was arrested the following year when he returned to Havana with another load of explosives that failed to detonate.
“The Cuban government reiterates its commitment to combating terrorism, respecting human rights, and the need for the international community to hold accountable those who promote such acts,” the statement read.
He was released on August 15 and is the second Salvadoran to complete his sentence. In December of last year, another Salvadoran, Ernesto Cruz León, was released after planting bombs at tourist centers, one of which killed an Italian tourist identified as Fabio Di Celmo.
A third Salvadoran, Francisco Chávez Abarca, also received a 30-year sentence from Cuban courts in 2010 after being extradited from Venezuela through Interpol for actions against Cuba.
Rodríguez Llerena had requested conditional release in 2016, arguing that his actions had not caused any direct fatalities, but no further information was released about his situation until now.
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