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Dengue will cover virtually all of Brazil and Mexico by 2039, according to a study

America is the continent most affected by dengue, with 8.1 million cases, and the situation will worsen in the coming years, according to a report that predicts that the infection will spread by 2039 to the practice the entire territory of Brazil and Mexico, the two largest countries in Latin America.

The research, published in the journal Nature Communications and in which scientists from Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, the United States, Brazil and Mexico collaborated, predicts that by 2039 97% of the localities in Brazil will be affected by dengue, while in Mexico the figure will be 81%.

The analysis predicts that in Mexico the expansion of dengue will be mainly in the interior of the country, in the highest altitude areas of the central plateau.

The study estimates that the area of Tijuana, on the border with the United States, will be invaded between 2027 and 2030, and the area of Mexico City, between 2038 and 2039.

In Brazil, most of the areas invaded in the coming years will be in the south.

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The situation is already alarming, according to experts from the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) who met at the end of May in Washington, because so far this year, there are already three times more documented cases than the cases recorded in the same period of 2023. The deaths stand at 3,600.

The international team of researchers pointed out in their study that the spread of dengue, a febrile disease that is transmitted by the bite of a mosquito (Aedes aegypti) and that can cause difficulty breathing, severe bleeding and organ complications, will accelerate in the coming years due to the climate crisis and the greater mobility of the population.

The researchers used for the first time machine learning technology (known by artificial intelligence) to understand how the connection between areas and environmental conditions interact at the different stages of the infection, one of the scientists who participated in the study, Vinyas Harish, of the University of Toronto (Canada), told EFE.

“Many people have investigated environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, rain, to establish the relationship between those characteristics and mosquitoes,” Harish said.

“But to really understand how dengue affects the population, we needed to integrate that with data on the population’s mobility over time. We use machine learning to integrate those perspectives,” he added.

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The data that the team used come from more than 8,000 municipalities in Brazil and Mexico during the past 25 years along with climate information, records of the appearance of epidemics and the history of genetic evolution.

In 1996, only 16 municipalities in Mexico (0.65% of the country’s total) were affected by dengue infection. But between 2000 and 2010, the infection expanded to 965 municipalities and by the end of 2019 the figure reached 1,350, 55% of the total.
In Brazil, the growth was similar. In 2001, dengue was only present in two states and 549 municipalities (9.96%). By 2019, the figure had exploded to 4,299 municipalities, 76.8%.

According to PAHO, there is no specific medicine to treat dengue, whose infection can occur without symptoms, or can be evidenced with symptoms ranging from a moderate fever to a high and incapacitating fever, headaches, muscle aches and rashes.

But Harish was optimistic since the conclusions of the study will allow the authorities to adopt preventive measures.

“From simple interventions, such as increasing awareness among the population to avoid the bites of these mosquitoes, to more complex, such as research on vaccines or mosquito replacement techniques,” he concluded.

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International

Claudia Sheinbaum: Operation Against ‘El Mencho’ Was Based on Pending Arrest Warrants

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum on Wednesday rejected claims that the military operation that resulted in the death of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), was carried out under pressure from the United States government.

Sheinbaum explained that the deployment of federal forces was aimed at executing outstanding arrest warrants against Oseguera Cervantes, who was considered one of the most wanted criminals in both Mexico and the United States.

“That was not the objective (to ease pressure from the United States). It is very important, and I want to repeat it. This individual had an arrest warrant, or several,” Sheinbaum said, referring to the operation conducted on February 22.

According to the president, the initial goal was to capture Oseguera Cervantes, but military forces responded after coming under attack during the intervention.

“The operation was to detain him. The problem is that they were attacked — the Secretariat of National Defense — and they responded at that moment,” she said.

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The president insisted that the action was not carried out in response to external demands, although she acknowledged intelligence cooperation with the United States.

“It was not done in any way because of pressure from the United States, not at all. Of course, there was intelligence information from the United States that was used specifically,” she concluded.

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International

Spain Denies Any Agreement to Cooperate with U.S. Military in Iran Operations

Spain’s Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares on Wednesday firmly denied that Madrid has agreed to cooperate with the U.S. military in operations against Iran, contradicting statements made minutes earlier by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

“I categorically deny it,” Albares said in a radio interview cited by EFE. “The position of the Spanish government regarding the war in the Middle East, the bombings in Iran, and the use of our bases has not changed by a single comma.”

Earlier in the day, Leavitt told reporters that Spain had “agreed to cooperate with the United States military in recent hours,” following President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a trade embargo on Madrid. Trump had warned of economic measures after Spain reportedly refused to allow the Pentagon to use facilities at Spanish bases for operations related to Iran.

“I have no idea what that could be referring to or where it could be coming from,” Albares said, insisting that Spain’s position “has not changed at all” and therefore “remains absolutely unchanged.” He added that he had “no desire” and “almost no time” to speculate about the White House spokesperson’s remarks.

Albares reiterated Spain’s “No to war” stance, which he said had been clearly and forcefully expressed by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in an institutional address. According to the foreign minister, that position has been supported by “many European colleagues.”

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International

White House Says Spain Agrees to Cooperate with U.S. Military After Trump Threatens Trade Embargo

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday that Spain has agreed “in recent hours” to cooperate with the U.S. military, following President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a trade embargo on Madrid.

Trump had warned of potential commercial measures after Spain reportedly refused to allow the Pentagon to use facilities at Spanish military bases for operations related to Iran.

“With respect to Spain, I think you heard the president’s message yesterday loud and clear, and I understand that in recent hours they have agreed to cooperate with the United States military,” Leavitt said during a press briefing.

She added that the U.S. military is currently coordinating with its counterparts in Spain. However, the president expects broader support.

“The president expects that all of Europe, all of our European allies, of course, will cooperate in this important mission — not only for the United States, but also for Europe,” Leavitt said.

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Her remarks came in response to questions about Spain’s position and its role as a U.S. ally amid rising tensions surrounding operations involving Iran.

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