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What is Trump’s chance of going to jail?

Donald Trump became the first former American president to be convicted in a criminal trial on Thursday, but his guilty verdict for falsification of commercial records does not imply, according to various experts, that he will go to jail.

The jury of his trial in New York did not absolve him of any of the 34 charges against him, each of which can result in a fine of up to $5,000 and up to four years in prison, in case he imposed the maximum penalty.

However, it is most likely that it will be dictated that what is decided for each of those positions will be fulfilled at the same time, which would reduce that period between bars to four years in total.

Dan Horwtitz, a defense lawyer who in the past took ‘white-neck’ cases for the office of the Manhattan District Prosecutor’s Office, pointed out on Thursday on CBS News that the possibility of house arrest is the most feasible.

That sentence would allow the former president and pre-candidate for the November elections to continue his campaign, even if it was virtually.

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But the possibilities are wide: Judge Juan Merchan, in the opinion of the expert, “could sentence him to a period of months or weeks in prison or he could demand that he go to jail every weekend for a while and then serve the rest of the sentence on parole.”

The 77-year-old Republican president, his status and lack of background are presented as points in his favor.

According to the NBC News channel, an analysis of “thousands of cases” similar to the one starring Trump points out that “very few people” end up in bars: barely one in ten convicted of falsifying commercial records, and those cases used to also involve other crimes.

The former president faced 34 charges of serious crimes of falsification of commercial records, all related to the reimbursement to his lawyer for paying in 2016 a total of $130,000 to the porn actress Stormy Daniels to silence an alleged sexual relationship in 2006.

The sentence will be announced on July 11, four days before the start of the convention in which the Republican Party is expected to officially proclaim Trump as its candidate for the November elections.

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In any case, the possible appeal of the former president would delay an eventual entry into prison.

The New York Times made it clear on Thursday that nothing can be taken for granted: “But there have been no indication of what Judge Merchan could decide, he has made it known that he takes white collar crimes seriously. Trump has attacked him and continuously denounced him as “partial and corrupt,” that newspaper said.

At the moment Trump is still a free man and a prison sentence would not invalidate his candidacy or his eventual presidency. The U.S. Constitution does not provide for anything about it, since it only requires presidents to be at least 35 years old and that they are U.S. citizens who have lived in the country for 14 years.

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International

Study finds COVID-19 vaccines prevented 2.5 million deaths worldwide

Moderna reduces production of COVID-19 vaccine

COVID-19 vaccines prevented an estimated 2,533,000 deaths worldwide between 2020 and 2024, according to an international study led by Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore in Italy and Stanford University in the United States, published in the journal JAMA Health Forum. Researchers calculated that one death was prevented for every 5,400 doses administered.

The analysis also found that the vaccines saved 14.8 million years of life, equivalent to one year of life gained for every 900 doses given.

The study, coordinated by Professor Stefania Boccia, revealed that 82% of the lives saved were people vaccinated before becoming infected with the virus, and 57% of deaths avoided occurred during the Omicron wave. In addition, 90% of the beneficiaries were adults over 60 years old.

“This is the most comprehensive analysis to date, based on global data and fewer assumptions about the evolution of the pandemic,” explained Boccia and researcher Angelo Maria Pezzullo.

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International

Trump administration blasts judge’s ruling reinstating TPS for Honduras, Nepal, and Nicaragua

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump criticized a federal judge’s ruling on Friday that reinstated Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Honduras, Nepal, and Nicaragua, stressing that the immigration program was never intended to serve as a “de facto asylum system.”

On Thursday, Judge Trina Thompson extended protections for about 7,000 Nepalese immigrants, whose TPS was set to expire on August 5. The ruling also impacts roughly 51,000 Hondurans and nearly 3,000 Nicaraguans, whose TPS protections were scheduled to end on September 8.

Immigrants covered by TPS had sued the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), alleging that the program’s termination was driven by “racial animus” and stripped them of protection from deportation.

DHS Deputy Undersecretary Tricia McLaughlin issued a statement saying the decision to end TPS was part of a mandate to “restore the integrity” of the immigration system and return the program to its original purpose.

“TPS was never conceived as a de facto asylum system; however, that is how previous administrations have used it for decades,” McLaughlin emphasized.

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She also criticized Judge Thompson, calling the ruling “another example” of judges “stirring up claims of racism to distract from the facts.”

McLaughlin added that DHS would appeal the decision and take the legal battle to higher courts.

The Trump administration has also terminated TPS protections for approximately 160,000 Ukrainians, 350,000 Venezuelans, and at least half a million Haitians, among other immigrant groups.

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International

Trump to build $200M ballroom at the White House by 2028

The U.S. government under President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that it will begin construction in September on a new 8,000-square-meter ballroom at the White House.

The announcement was made by Karoline Leavitt, the administration’s press secretary, during a briefing in which she explained that the expansion responds to the need for a larger venue to host “major events.”

“Other presidents have long wished for a space capable of accommodating large gatherings within the White House complex… President Trump has committed to solving this issue,” Leavitt told reporters.

The project is estimated to cost $200 million, fully funded through donations from Trump himself and other “patriots,” according to a government statement. Construction is scheduled to begin in September and is expected to be completed before Trump’s term ends in 2028.

The Clark Construction Group, a Virginia-based company known for projects such as the Capital One Arena and L’Enfant Plaza in Washington, D.C., has been selected to lead the project.

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The new ballroom will be built on the East Wing of the White House, expanding the iconic residence with a space designed for state dinners, official ceremonies, and large-scale events.

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