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Putin prepares for a long war with a change of defense minister

Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a long war with Ukraine and the West, which would be due to his unexpected decision to replace his faithful Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, with an economist who will be in charge of modernizing the military industry.

“It is your right, if you want to (solve the crisis) on the battlefield, because it will be on the battlefield,” Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, said on Monday, when speaking before the International Affairs Committee of the Russian Senate.

The information bomb that exploded on Sunday night had a greater impact because of the name of its substitute, the gray economist Andrei Belousov, in charge of the Government for the production of drones, an aspect in which Kiev has a clear advantage.

Belousov, whose candidacy will be endorsed on Tuesday by the Senate, will now have to manage a war economy with a defense budget of 6.7%, similar to that of the USSR in the last years of the Cold War.

Putin always defended the criticism of Shoigu, who was vilified by the absence of a clear strategy on the battlefield, especially since the campaign stalled in July 2022.

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Shoigu, who in twelve years in office also led the military operation in Syria, played a very useful role for the Kremlin, since he served as a parapet against attacks by hawks such as the late founder of the Wagner company, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who accused him of “criminal negligence.”

The Russian leader made changes in the generalate after the withdrawals of Kherson and Kharkov, and the armed rebellion of Prigozhin in June 2023, but had patience with Shoigu.

What he didn’t forgive was corruption. Shoigu’s right-hand man, Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, was arrested on April 23 after being accused of large-scale corruption.

“The cleaning has begun in the Ministry of Defense, but it will continue,” said Sergey Mironov, a social democratic leader and friend of Prigozhin.

According to experts, since then the fate of the Minister of Defense was cast. He said goodbye when he directed the Victory Day military stop over Nazi Germany in the Red Square on May 9.

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All Russia’s defense ministers since Putin arrived at the Kremlin in 2000 have been civilians, but Belousov was a more than unlikely candidate, since he has no military experience, according to the press.

In fact, in his first public appearance on Monday before the Senate defense and security committee, Belousov answered questions about the social problems faced by soldiers when they return from the front.

“He is a civilian, he is not a soldier. The military actions, the special military operation, the command, is directed by the General Staff under the command of the Supreme Commander. There is no change here, the work continues. No one should be worried,” said Valentina Matviyenko, president of the Senate.

It is an open secret that it is Putin and the Chief of Staff, Valeri Guerásimov, who set the military strategy and priorities on the battlefield.

The change in Defense coincides with the current Russian offensive in the Donbas and in the northeastern region of Kharkov, where Russian troops have opened a second front by conquering several Ukrainian localities.

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Putin’s decision, a little friend of the purges within the government, adds to the surprising replacement of Nikolai Patrushev, one of the most influential figures in the hard core of the Kremlin.

Pátrushev, one of the ideologues of the narrative that Ukraine has no right to exist, ceased to be secretary of the Security Council, since he will now assume Shoigu.

The risk of technocrats like Belousov, not always supporters of the use of force, is compensated by their effective management of resources and their limited fondness for conspiracies, as happened with the generals who supported the Prigozhin uprising.

In fact, the new minister will have to strengthen the links between the Armed Forces and the defense industry, which will be the locomotive of the economy, since the victory in the war and the viability of social programs depends on it.

The weapons factories have hired more than half a million people “in just over a year,” as the new first deputy prime minister, Denis Manturov, admitted today.

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According to the Russian press in exile and the Institute for the Study of War, everything indicates that Putin is preparing for a long military campaign that will require very careful management of state resources, as long as oil prices are above $60.

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International

Chile enters runoff campaign with Kast leading and Jara seeking a last-minute comeback

Chile’s presidential runoff campaign for the December 14 election kicked off this Sunday, with far-right candidate José Antonio Kast entering the race as the clear favorite in the polls, while left-wing contender Jeannette Jara faces an uphill scenario, hoping for a comeback that some experts describe as “a miracle.”

The final polls released in Chile—published before the mandatory blackout on survey dissemination—give Kast, an ultraconservative former lawmaker running for president for the third time, a lead of between 12 and 16 points. His opponent, the communist former minister in Gabriel Boric’s current administration, is weighed down not only by the government’s low approval ratings but also by a fragmented electorate.

Although Jeannette Jara received the most votes in the first round with 26.9%, her lack of alliances beyond the left makes it difficult for her to expand her support. Kast, who secured 23.9%, has already brought key figures on board: ultralibertarian Johannes Kaiser (13.9%) and traditional right-wing leader Evelyn Matthei (12.4%), both now backing his candidacy.

Analysts note that although Kast’s support base consolidates more than 50% of the electorate, it does not guarantee an automatic transfer of votes. Populist economist Franco Parisi, who placed third with 19.7%, emerges as the major wildcard. His party, the People’s Party (PDG), is set to decide this Sunday through an internal consultation whether to endorse one of the two finalists.

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International

Trump says asylum decision freeze will remain in place “for a long time”

U.S. President Donald Trump warned on Sunday that the suspension of decisions on asylum applications—implemented as part of his order to “halt” immigration from third-world countries following Wednesday’s shooting in Washington—will remain in effect “for a long time.”

The president declined to specify how long the freeze, imposed last Friday by the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), would last. The suspension affects individuals waiting for an asylum ruling from that agency, though it does not apply to cases handled by U.S. immigration courts.

The delay is part of a series of measures enacted by the Trump Administration after a shooting on Wednesday in which an Afghan national allegedly opened fire on the National Guard in Washington, D.C., killing one officer and leaving another in critical condition.

Trump has ordered a permanent halt to immigration from 19 countries classified as “third-world.” He also indicated on Sunday that “possibly” more nations could be added to the list.

“These are countries with high crime rates. They are countries that do not function well… that are not known for success, and frankly, we don’t need people from those places coming into our country and telling us what to do,” Trump said, adding: “We don’t want those people.”

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USCIS had already announced on Thursday a “rigorous review” of green cards held by migrants from 19 “countries of concern,” including Afghanistan, Cuba, Venezuela, and Haiti.

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International

Sri Lanka and Indonesia deploy military as deadly asian floods kill over 1,000

Sri Lanka and Indonesia deployed military personnel on Monday to assist victims of the devastating floods that have killed more than a thousand people across Asia in recent days.

A series of weather events last week triggered prolonged torrential rains across Sri Lanka, parts of Indonesia’s Sumatra island, southern Thailand, and northern Malaysia. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto said Monday in North Sumatra that “the priority now is to deliver the necessary aid as quickly as possible.”

“There are several isolated villages that, with God’s help, we will be able to reach,” he added. Subianto also stated that the government had deployed helicopters and aircraft to support relief operations.

Floods and landslides have claimed 502 lives in Indonesia, with a similar number still missing.

This marks the highest death toll from a natural disaster in Indonesia since 2018, when an earthquake and subsequent tsunami killed more than 2,000 people.

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The government has sent three military ships carrying aid and two hospital vessels to the hardest-hit regions, where many roads remain impassable.

In the village of Sungai Nyalo, located about 100 kilometers from Padang, the capital of West Sumatra, floodwaters had receded by Sunday, leaving homes, vehicles, and crops coated in thick mud.

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