International
Colombia government weakened by ‘truce’ mishap: analysts
January 6th | By AFP |
In announcing a “bilateral” ceasefire before it existed, Colombian President Gustavo Petro may have weakened his government in ongoing peace talks with armed groups, experts say.
Petro’s New Year’s Eve declaration was hailed by the United Nations and others as a step towards the “total peace” Colombia’s first-ever leftist president has vowed to bring to the country.
But the ELN guerrilla group poured cold water all over Petro’s declaration just three days later, denying the group had entered into any such deal, and the government conceded that nothing was signed.
Whether a calculated ploy to pile pressure on the ELN or mere miscommunication, Petro’s move was a “mistake” that harmed “the legitimacy of the peace negotiations,” conflict expert Laura Barrios of Rosario University told AFP.
“The biggest challenge here will be how the government will regain the trust of the ELN,” she said.
For analyst Felipe Botero of the University of The Andes in Bogota, the events “revealed inexperience and political clumsiness.”
It was a “setback for the government,” said Botero, but would not necessarily compromise the talks themselves.
‘Renewed hope’
On December 31, Petro announced that a ceasefire had been agreed with the country’s five largest armed groups, including the National Liberation Army (ELN), from January 1 to June 30.
The government subsequently said the ceasefire would be monitored by the United Nations, Colombia’s human rights ombudsman and the Catholic Church.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said the supposed deal brought “renewed hope for comprehensive peace to the Colombian people as the New Year dawns.”
But then on Tuesday, the ELN said it had “not discussed any bilateral ceasefire with the Gustavo Petro government, therefore no such agreement exists.”
The group added that “a unilateral government decree cannot be accepted as an agreement.”
This prompted the government to concede Tuesday that a proposed ceasefire decree had not been signed, and the following day to announce a suspension of a truce that never existed in the first place.
Petro, an active social media user, has been quiet in recent days.
‘More expensive’
Both the government and ELN have said the question of a ceasefire will be raised again in Mexico when talks resume later this month.
Negotiations between the government and the ELN, the country’s last recognized rebel group, have been underway since November.
A first round of peace talks since Petro came to power in August concluded in Caracas, Venezuela on December 12 without a truce being agreed.
The ELN has already accused Petro of acting just like former “traditional governments” with which previous attempts at peace negotiations had failed.
Political commentator Andres Mejia Vergnaud said a ceasefire agreement has just become “more expensive.”
“The government needs it a lot more, and the other side will get more in return,” he said.
Petro’s announcement had also included two dissident splinter factions of the disbanded FARC guerrilla group, the Gulf Clan narcotics outfit and the Self-Defense Forces of the Sierra Nevada, a right-wing paramilitary group.
The ELN, which has an estimated 3,500 members, is the only group to have refuted the existence of a truce, though the others will be watching closely what happens next.
“We can imagine a scenario in which these actors say ‘look at what they’ve done with the ELN, we’d better take a break,’” in negotiations, said Barrios.
‘Lies’
Colombia’s right-wing opposition, still reeling from electoral defeat last year, has meanwhile jumped on Petro’s apparent misstep.
Petro’s “lies put Colombians in danger,” charged Senator Miguel Uribe of the Democratic Center party.
For his part, defeated conservative presidential candidate Federico “Fico” Gutierrez said Petro’s announcement of something that was “not true” was a blow for security in a country in the grip of decades of violence.
“The most serious aspect of this is that the government has manacled the security forces and the civilian population is defenseless,” tweeted Gutierrez. “This is delivering the country to criminal groups.”
For Leon Valencia, director of the Peace and Reconciliation Foundation think tank, the apparent blunder has given the opposition a “huge” opening for hammering the executive.
“The opposition can say with reason that ‘these people are very disorganized, they are not on the same page,’ and that harms the image of the government,” he said.
International
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Speaking during a dinner with law enforcement officials as part of National Police Week, Trump publicly praised both officials and said they could make “an ideal team” for the next presidential race.
“Who likes JD Vance? Who likes Marco Rubio?” Trump asked attendees before adding that the pair “sound like a good combination.”
The president highlighted his vice president’s performance in office, stating that their current partnership has been highly effective. “JD is perfect, that has been a perfect formula,” Trump told reporters later.
He further suggested that a Vance-Rubio pairing could represent a strong presidential and vice-presidential ticket, although he stopped short of offering any formal endorsement.
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So far, neither Vance nor Rubio has publicly confirmed any intention to run in the 2028 presidential election.
Rubio previously sought the Republican nomination in 2016 but withdrew after losing the primary race to Trump. Later, in a December 2025 interview with Vanity Fair, he said he would be among the first to support Vance if he decided to run for the White House.
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International
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Despite the declared ceasefire, the Russian Ministry of Defense said in a statement that Ukrainian forces attacked Russian military positions using attack drones and artillery.
According to the ministry, Ukrainian forces made twelve attempts to advance toward Russian-held positions across several sectors of the front line.
It also alleged that Ukrainian strikes targeted civilian infrastructure in Crimea, several border regions, the Caucasus, and other areas including Moscow and Perm in the Ural region.
The Defense Ministry estimated around 8,900 violations of the ceasefire in total, including more than 7,000 drone attacks and over 1,000 strikes involving tanks, artillery, multiple rocket launch systems, and mortars since the truce came into effect at midnight.
Russia said its forces responded “symmetrically” to what it described as violations by Ukrainian troops.
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International
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“We’ve had very good conversations over the last 44 hours, and it’s very possible that we’ll reach an agreement,” Trump said during an event held in the Oval Office at the White House.
The president’s remarks came just hours after he announced a temporary suspension of the military operation aimed at escorting vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf due to Iran’s blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Trump explained that the pause in operations is intended to facilitate diplomatic negotiations between both sides and prevent further military escalation in the region.
“We’re in good shape, and right now things are going well. Now we have to achieve what we need to achieve. If we don’t, we’ll have to go much further,” the Republican president warned.
In a post published on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump reiterated that if Iran accepts Washington’s proposed conditions, military operations and the naval blockade affecting the Islamic republic would come to an end.
However, he also issued a new warning to the Iranian government, stating that the United States would respond with attacks “of greater intensity” if Tehran rejects the agreement promoted by the White House.
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